Two minor threat areas to watch in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:50 PM GMT on August 13, 2012

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The remains of Tropical Depression Seven are headed westward at 20 mph across the Central Caribbean, and will bring heavy rain to Jamaica and Southwest Haiti today. Satellite loops show that ex-TD 7 has only a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms, with no signs of any organization. High wind shear of 15 - 25 knots should prevent the system from regenerating today. Wind shear will fall to the low range over the disturbance on Tuesday and Wednesday, but there is not going to be enough time for ex-TD 7 to develop before it moves inland over the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. None of the reliable models forecasts that TD 7 will regenerate, and in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-TD 7 a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Wednesday morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L over the Central Atlantic.

93L
A large tropical wave (Invest 93L) is located in the Central Atlantic about 1200 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show a pronounced spin to the atmosphere at mid levels, but little in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis from the University of Wisconsin shows that 93L is surrounded by a large area of dry air from the Sahara, which has infiltrated into the storm. This dry air will be a significant impediment to development, as the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that mid-levels of the atmosphere will remain very dry during the next four days. The storm is expected to move west-northwest and then north, recurving well to the east of Bermuda. By Saturday, as 93L is headed northeastwards towards the Azores Islands, the disturbance will find a moister environment, and the GFS model predicts development into a tropical storm will occur. None of the other reliable models predict development, but residents of the Azores Islands should keep an eye on 93L. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Wednesday morning.

Another area to watch this weekend will be the Gulf of Mexico, where a fall-like cold front is expected to stall out. Though no models are showing tropical storm development will occur, wind shear is predicted to be low to moderate this weekend, and cold fronts stalled out over the Gulf of Mexico often serve as the seed for tropical storms.

Jeff Masters

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1197. seafarer459
2:33 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
Target practice and law enforcement. The NOAA actually has a law enforcement unit (NOAA OLE), because there are a lot of bad people out there who don't like such things as fishing limits, laws against illegal dumping, and the like. That's all; nothing nefarious, despite what Alex Jones and Ann Coulter are blathering about...


Glad to hear that. For a minute there I thought The NWS was going to start busting caps on AccuWeather.
Member Since: July 16, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 515
1196. wunderkidcayman
2:06 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Quoting seafarer459:
Why in God's name, does the National Weather service need 16,000 rounds of .40 cal hollow point ammunition?
https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode= form &tab=core&id=bfd95987a1ad9a6dfb22bca4a1915 0cb&_cvi ew=0


I have no Idea but that sound like my kinda stuff also they may need to get about 13,000 round of .40cal tracer rounds oh yeah don't forget the rifles amd M203 launchers
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9553
1195. StormPro
2:06 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Fragmentation rounds are used for target practice...Many stories over the years of Wildlife officers being shot at/or killed when they have stumbled upon folks engaging illegal activities (whether poaching - wildlife violations - or worse) during routine patrols or as a result of a call of some kind. They need to be able to protect themselves in any event when in the field.

NOAA is not the US fish and wildlife dept......and I dont know what department uses hollow points for target but I personally dont know one that could afford it
Member Since: August 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 606
1194. STXHurricanes2012
2:06 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Still got to watch the northern part of ex td 7 as it'll try to head in the boc to meet up with the moisture its there already
Member Since: June 4, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 767
1193. bappit
2:05 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Learn here:

"NOAA Office of Law Enforcement Special Agents and Enforcement Officers perform a variety of tasks associated with the protection and conservation of our nation's living marine resources.

"OLE Special Agents and Enforcement Officers conduct complex criminal and civil investigations, board vessels fishing at sea, inspect fish processing plants, review sales of wildlife products on the internet and conduct patrols on land, in the air and at sea.

"The individual OLE Special Agent and Enforcement Officer rely on their FLETC training, seamanship skills, emerging technologies and close partnerships with various local, state, tribal, Federal and international law enforcement partners to protect over 3.36 million square miles of water and enforce international treaties on the high seas.

"In Fiscal Year 2008 alone, NOAA Office of Law Enforcement investigated more than 4,800 incidents.

"While a vast majority of commercial and recreational fishermen comply with the enacted conservation measures, there are still those fishermen - both domestic and foreign - which attempt to thwart the law and conduct fraudulent business. In recent years, the OLE has stepped up its presence in the international scene as more and more fish are imported and exported into and out of the United States."

Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5558
1192. AtHomeInTX
2:03 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


Your Dad was at Fort Polk a hundred years ago?? Maybe I knew him?


HA! Maybe you did. It was the late 60's actually. The 1960's. lol
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 459
1191. weathermanwannabe
2:02 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Quoting StormPro:


I can see you argument but anyone, anyone who has ever worked in law enforcement or the military would tell you hollow points are not used for target practice..... and I am not supporting the argument either way....now back to the tropics


Fragmentation rounds are used for target practice...Many stories over the years of Wildlife officers being shot at/or killed when they have stumbled upon folks engaging illegal activities (whether poaching - wildlife violations - or worse) during routine patrols or as a result of a call of some kind. They need to be able to protect themselves in any event when in the field.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8270
1190. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:01 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1189. wunderkidcayman
2:01 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Morning guys look at EX-TD7 well got to tell ya it dose look much better than yesterday late evening and last night but still look bad in organisation and looks like it want land bad well if it can survive and enter the GOM it could be a really bad system I think it will ride up the Coast of MEX then turn E riding along the coasts of TX,LA,MISS,AL,and Fl landfall in FL then turn NE after leaving FL, impacting Georgia S & N Carolina then moves out Atlantic
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9553
1188. gordydunnot
1:59 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Obviously if they shot the bad guy they don't want the bullet to pass thru the individual and strike an innocent dolphin.Where's your head man?
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3109
1187. Grothar
1:58 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Yes they were both a mess for sure! I used to live in Fort Polk a hundred years ago when my dad was stationed there. :)


Your Dad was at Fort Polk a hundred years ago?? Maybe I knew him?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23703
1186. gordydunnot
1:56 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Maybe they wanted more rounds than the Joker.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3109
1185. StormPro
1:54 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
Target practice and law enforcement. The NOAA actually has a law enforcement unit (NOAA OLE), because there are a lot of bad people out there who don't like such things as fishing limits, laws against illegal dumping, and the like. That's all; nothing nefarious, despite what Alex Jones and Ann Coulter are blathering about...


I can see your argument but anyone, anyone who has ever worked in law enforcement or the military would tell you hollow points are not used for target practice.....and all states have wildlife agents, plus the feds to oversee gaming and fishing limits.... and I am not supporting the argument either way....now back to the tropics
Member Since: August 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 606
1184. AtHomeInTX
1:54 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Quoting hydrus:
The GFS precipitation map has Tennessee and parts of Texas getting a lot of rain...Link


They were showing a lot of rain! Hope the areas that really need it get it.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 459
1183. VR46L
1:54 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
..yes looks like td7 will be gone soion..good thing it did not head towards the gulf


Agreed ... the gulf looks very prime lack of dry air and very hot temps ... in fact the Gulf would be ROCKET FUEL for any depression or vigorous wave





Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6613
1182. Neapolitan
1:51 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Quoting seafarer459:
Why in God's name, does the National Weather service need 16,000 rounds of .40 cal hollow point ammunition?
https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode= form &tab=core&id=bfd95987a1ad9a6dfb22bca4a1915 0cb&_cvi ew=0
Target practice and law enforcement. The NOAA actually has a law enforcement unit (NOAA OLE), because there are a lot of bad people out there who don't like such things as fishing limits, laws against illegal dumping, and the like. That's all; nothing nefarious, despite what Alex Jones and Ann Coulter are blathering about...

All those acronyms in the RFQ?

DOC: Department of Commerce
NOAA: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NMFS: National Marine Fisheries Service
OLE: Office of Law Enforcement
NED: Northeast Division
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13263
1181. hydrus
1:48 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


The Moon Below by Barbara Bickmore. It talks about the beginnings of the New South Wales. Enjoyed the pics of snow on the Blue Mountains. Now I know where they are. :)
The GFS precipitation map has Tennessee and parts of Texas getting a lot of rain...Link
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19504
1180. unknowncomic
1:41 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Quoting seafarer459:
Link

Protection against Bloggers!
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1722
1179. bappit
1:41 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:


Why were they even looking to go???

They schedule things in advance if there is a chance they are needed. The blob was at 20% yesterday on the TWO.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5558
1178. AussieStorm
1:39 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15749
1177. kwgirl
1:39 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Good morning all. It has been warm and muggy here in the Keys. I am hoping the forecast for a cool autumn happens and reaches us down here. Usually, we stay warm until late October. Would be nice to have it sooner. Thank you AussieStorm for posting that link to NASA. I had seen a show not too long ago that talked about pumice rafts and how they helped build the Great Barrier reef. Everyone have a g'day!
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
1176. seafarer459
1:36 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Link
Member Since: July 16, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 515
1175. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:35 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
93L/XX/XX
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52230
1174. seafarer459
1:35 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Why in God's name, does the National Weather service need 16,000 rounds of .40 cal hollow point ammunition?
https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=form &tab=core&id=bfd95987a1ad9a6dfb22bca4a19150cb&_cvi ew=0
Member Since: July 16, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 515
1173. Tazmanian
1:33 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
93L looks lke a open wave this AM i dont see any thing coming from 93L any time soon
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114049
1172. GeoffreyWPB
1:32 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10578
1171. AussieStorm
1:31 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
No surprise...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0910 AM EDT TUE 14 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z AUGUST 2012
NUMBER.....12-088

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: FLIGHT INTO THE REMNANTS OF TD #7 FOR
14/1700Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 14/0930Z.


Why were they even looking to go???
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15749
1170. gordydunnot
1:28 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3109
1169. AussieStorm
1:27 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
NASA ‏@NASA
Some satellite-aided detective work spots an underwater volcanic eruption in the South Pacific.

Link
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15749
1168. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:27 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
former 07l
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52230
1167. gordydunnot
1:26 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
I hope 93L turns today because I ain't liken what I'm seeing. Goes red at 2.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3109
1166. GeoffreyWPB
1:26 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
No surprise...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0910 AM EDT TUE 14 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z AUGUST 2012
NUMBER.....12-088

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: FLIGHT INTO THE REMNANTS OF TD #7 FOR
14/1700Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 14/0930Z.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10578
1165. Articuno
1:23 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Quoting Walshy:

Your hurting my eyes. >:(
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2179
1164. LargoFl
1:20 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33292
1163. LargoFl
1:19 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Houston hasn't written off gulf development yet...

THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING TO BE MORE WET
THAN IT HAS BEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. MODELS BUILD THE RIDGE
OVER THE 4 CORNERS INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH A BROAD LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAT STRETCHES TO THE GULF. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF BRING A FRONT INTO SE TX LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT MON
WITH THE ECMWF PUSHING IT OFF THE COAST. THE GFS DISSIPATES THE
FRONT ON SUN BUT BRINGS A TROPCIAL WAVE INTO THE W GULF WITH
TROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE UPPER TX COAST.
PRECIP WATER
VALUES JUMP ABOVE 2 INCHES SUN INTO MON WITH THE GFS FORMING A
POSSIBLE WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE OFF THE LOWER TX COAST. STILL LOTS
OF UNCERTAINY SURROUNDING THE GFS SOLUTION
BUT AT THIS POINT
EITHER MODEL SUGGEST 30-40 POPS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FROM EITHER THE GFS OR THE ECMWF
SUPPORTS CONVECTION AND A WET PATTERN. THIS WILL ALSO HOLD DOWN
MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID/LOW 90S WHICH WILL BE A WELCOME BREAK FROM
THE UPPER 90S TO 100F THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
.we were watching that area yesterday, seems like we need to all week long,just in case
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33292
1162. watercayman
1:17 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Starting to feel the effects of TW7 in Cayman. About 8kts wind with a few drizzles overnight. Very glad NHC got this one right. They're doing a quite well this year.
Member Since: September 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 81
1161. LargoFl
1:17 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:
Good Morning..

Just something to note..surface lows trying to develop with the blob off the east coast..


..watching this one closely alright
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33292
1160. LargoFl
1:16 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Quoting VR46L:
X TD7 heading for land





..yes looks like td7 will be gone soion..good thing it did not head towards the gulf
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33292
1159. AtHomeInTX
1:14 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:

Yeah I saw that Photo also. Very sweet.
What's the name of the book your reading?


The Moon Below by Barbara Bickmore. It talks about the beginnings of the New South Wales. Enjoyed the pics of snow on the Blue Mountains. Now I know where they are. :)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 459
1158. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:12 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52230
1157. AussieStorm
1:05 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Hi Aussie. I saw pictures of a couple getting married in the Philippines yesterday. They just gave up and went with the flood. Them and the whole party were standing in the water. But they looked happy. I hope they are. :)

Also, started reading a book that is set in Australia in 1805. Pretty interesting.

Wedding Flood: Couple In Philippines Says 'I Do' In Knee-Deep Flood



Yeah I saw that Photo also. Very sweet.
What's the name of the book your reading?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15749
1156. AtHomeInTX
1:05 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Quoting ARiot:


The 89 Allison caught me at Ft. Polk. What a mess. Tanks stuck, throwing track, etc., we paid the price for training during that storm.

The Houston Allison caught me as I had moved there. What a disaster.



Yes they were both a mess for sure! I used to live in Fort Polk a hundred years ago when my dad was stationed there. :)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 459
1155. ARiot
12:59 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Those Pacific storms always bring a ton of rain! But so did Allisons. :)


The 89 Allison caught me at Ft. Polk. What a mess. Tanks stuck, throwing track, etc., we paid the price for training during that storm.

The Houston Allison caught me as I had moved there. What a disaster.

Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 366
1154. VR46L
12:57 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
X TD7 heading for land





Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6613
1153. aspectre
12:56 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
1152. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:55 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52230
1151. ncstorm
12:55 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Hi Aussie. I saw pictures of a couple getting married in the Philippines yesterday. They just gave up and went with the flood. Them and the whole party were standing in the water. But they looked happy. I hope they are. :)

Also, started reading a book that is set in Australia in 1805. Pretty interesting.

Wedding Flood: Couple In Philippines Says 'I Do' In Knee-Deep Flood




well that dress is ruined..LOL
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13441
1150. AtHomeInTX
12:54 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:
Hi All.
I feel sorry for the people of the Philippines.
PAGASA is hopeless. They have been saying that Tropical Storm Kai-Tak (Ph name Helen) was moving NW.

Tropical Storm "HELEN" has intensified slightly as it moves closer to Northern Luzon. Movement: Northwest at 13 kph.

They just tweeted this....

PAGASA-DOST ‏@dost_pagasa
As of 8pm, Tropical Storm Helen consistently moving westward and likely to landfall between Isabela and Cagayan at around midnight.


I have been watching TS Helen for the last 24hrs and it's been moving west.






BTW, the floater of 07L has been reactivated.


Hi Aussie. I saw pictures of a couple getting married in the Philippines yesterday. They just gave up and went with the flood. Them and the whole party were standing in the water. But they looked happy. I hope they are. :)

Also, started reading a book that is set in Australia in 1805. Pretty interesting.

Wedding Flood: Couple In Philippines Says 'I Do' In Knee-Deep Flood


Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 459
1149. aspectre
12:54 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Moved to the next page, cuz this became a backpage before I could even refresh to see if it had posted.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
1148. kshipre1
12:53 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
does Florida get cooler fall and winter in a weak, moderate or strong el nino?
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
1147. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:52 PM GMT on August 14, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52230

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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