Two minor threat areas to watch in the Atlantic
The remains of Tropical Depression Seven are headed westward at 20 mph across the Central Caribbean, and will bring heavy rain to Jamaica and Southwest Haiti today. Satellite loops show that ex-TD 7 has only a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms, with no signs of any organization. High wind shear of 15 - 25 knots should prevent the system from regenerating today. Wind shear will fall to the low range over the disturbance on Tuesday and Wednesday, but there is not going to be enough time for ex-TD 7 to develop before it moves inland over the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. None of the reliable models forecasts that TD 7 will regenerate, and in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-TD 7 a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Wednesday morning.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L over the Central Atlantic.
93L
A large tropical wave (Invest 93L) is located in the Central Atlantic about 1200 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show a pronounced spin to the atmosphere at mid levels, but little in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis from the University of Wisconsin shows that 93L is surrounded by a large area of dry air from the Sahara, which has infiltrated into the storm. This dry air will be a significant impediment to development, as the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that mid-levels of the atmosphere will remain very dry during the next four days. The storm is expected to move west-northwest and then north, recurving well to the east of Bermuda. By Saturday, as 93L is headed northeastwards towards the Azores Islands, the disturbance will find a moister environment, and the GFS model predicts development into a tropical storm will occur. None of the other reliable models predict development, but residents of the Azores Islands should keep an eye on 93L. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Wednesday morning.
Another area to watch this weekend will be the Gulf of Mexico, where a fall-like cold front is expected to stall out. Though no models are showing tropical storm development will occur, wind shear is predicted to be low to moderate this weekend, and cold fronts stalled out over the Gulf of Mexico often serve as the seed for tropical storms.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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well that dress is ruined..LOL
The 89 Allison caught me at Ft. Polk. What a mess. Tanks stuck, throwing track, etc., we paid the price for training during that storm.
The Houston Allison caught me as I had moved there. What a disaster.
Yes they were both a mess for sure! I used to live in Fort Polk a hundred years ago when my dad was stationed there. :)
Yeah I saw that Photo also. Very sweet.
What's the name of the book your reading?
The Moon Below by Barbara Bickmore. It talks about the beginnings of the New South Wales. Enjoyed the pics of snow on the Blue Mountains. Now I know where they are. :)
Your hurting my eyes. >:(
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0910 AM EDT TUE 14 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z AUGUST 2012
NUMBER.....12-088
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: FLIGHT INTO THE REMNANTS OF TD #7 FOR
14/1700Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 14/0930Z.
Some satellite-aided detective work spots an underwater volcanic eruption in the South Pacific.
Link
Why were they even looking to go???
https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=form &tab=core&id=bfd95987a1ad9a6dfb22bca4a19150cb&_cvi ew=0
They schedule things in advance if there is a chance they are needed. The blob was at 20% yesterday on the TWO.
Protection against Bloggers!
All those acronyms in the RFQ?
DOC: Department of Commerce
NOAA: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NMFS: National Marine Fisheries Service
OLE: Office of Law Enforcement
NED: Northeast Division
Agreed ... the gulf looks very prime lack of dry air and very hot temps ... in fact the Gulf would be ROCKET FUEL for any depression or vigorous wave
They were showing a lot of rain! Hope the areas that really need it get it.
I can see your argument but anyone, anyone who has ever worked in law enforcement or the military would tell you hollow points are not used for target practice.....and all states have wildlife agents, plus the feds to oversee gaming and fishing limits.... and I am not supporting the argument either way....now back to the tropics
Your Dad was at Fort Polk a hundred years ago?? Maybe I knew him?
Fragmentation rounds are used for target practice...Many stories over the years of Wildlife officers being shot at/or killed when they have stumbled upon folks engaging illegal activities (whether poaching - wildlife violations - or worse) during routine patrols or as a result of a call of some kind. They need to be able to protect themselves in any event when in the field.
HA! Maybe you did. It was the late 60's actually. The 1960's. lol
"NOAA Office of Law Enforcement Special Agents and Enforcement Officers perform a variety of tasks associated with the protection and conservation of our nation's living marine resources.
"OLE Special Agents and Enforcement Officers conduct complex criminal and civil investigations, board vessels fishing at sea, inspect fish processing plants, review sales of wildlife products on the internet and conduct patrols on land, in the air and at sea.
"The individual OLE Special Agent and Enforcement Officer rely on their FLETC training, seamanship skills, emerging technologies and close partnerships with various local, state, tribal, Federal and international law enforcement partners to protect over 3.36 million square miles of water and enforce international treaties on the high seas.
"In Fiscal Year 2008 alone, NOAA Office of Law Enforcement investigated more than 4,800 incidents.
"While a vast majority of commercial and recreational fishermen comply with the enacted conservation measures, there are still those fishermen - both domestic and foreign - which attempt to thwart the law and conduct fraudulent business. In recent years, the OLE has stepped up its presence in the international scene as more and more fish are imported and exported into and out of the United States."
NOAA is not the US fish and wildlife dept......and I dont know what department uses hollow points for target but I personally dont know one that could afford it
I have no Idea but that sound like my kinda stuff also they may need to get about 13,000 round of .40cal tracer rounds oh yeah don't forget the rifles amd M203 launchers
Glad to hear that. For a minute there I thought The NWS was going to start busting caps on AccuWeather.
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