Remains of TD 7 kill two in Trinidad; 93L too dry to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:31 PM GMT on August 12, 2012

Share this Blog
35
+

The remains of Tropical Depression Seven brought heavy rains to Trinidad on Saturday, unleashing flooding and mudslides that killed two people and left two others missing in Diego Martin. The storm is headed westward at 20 mph across the Caribbean, but high wind shear of 15 - 25 knots should prevent the system from regenerating. None of the reliable models forecasts that TD 7 will regenerate, and the storm should arrive in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-TD 7 a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.


Figure 1. An analysis of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) from 8 am EDT August 12, 2012. Very dry air from the Sahara (yellow and orange colors) surrounds the tropical wave designated 93L in the Central Atlantic. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS and NOAA/Hurricane Research Division.

93L
A large tropical wave(Invest 93L) is located in the Central Atlantic about 700 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show a pronounced spin to the atmosphere at mid levels, but little in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis from the University of Wisconsin shows that 93L is surrounded by a large area of dry air from the Sahara, which has infiltrated into the storm. This dry air will be a significant impediment to development, as the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that mid-levels of the atmosphere will remain very dry during the next four days. None of the reliable computer models develop 93L during the coming five days, and the storm is expected to move west-northwest and then north, recurving well to the east of Bermuda. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model is predicting 93L will develop into a tropical depression in about a week, once the storm recurves and begins heading northeast. At this point, it does not appear 93L will trouble any land areas.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1031 - 981

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

1031. MahFL
3:53 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
Quoting BahaHurican:
u know any heads still attached to bodies have already rolled...


Captain was Tweeting, lol.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3850
1030. hydrus
2:13 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
I can believe that.There are photos that I saw of the hoods of cars being pilled back.Really stunning images to see.It's amazing the death toll was low in Charlie.
Remarkably low..A testament to the building codes established after Andrew.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22719
1029. sabres
1:57 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
I had nearly 7" in June, but only 3" in July so it has been a downward trend for us this summer. A few wet days can change that though ...
Member Since: February 15, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 26
1028. BahaHurican
1:56 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
New blog, ya'll.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
1027. GeorgiaStormz
1:54 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
AAAK, its the ol' 5 minute break.....so before i return to my misery, i leave you with this:

In making long-range outlooks forecasters look at persistence charts, we tell us the degree to which a particular month or seasons weather is likely to continue into the next month or season or likely to reverse. Research tells us that on a national basis the greatest persistence of temperature patterns is June to August and again for December to January. So we know the summer is not a good predictor of fall or winter weather. In other words, from an historic climatological view point the coming two seasons can go either way following a hot summer…because they have in the past.
The lowest correlation of persistence is between October and November, or put another way. October temperature patterns yield almost zero clue as to what November will bring.

full article: Early peak at autumn and winter weather

I'll be bach in many hours.. :(
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
1026. sluggosteve
1:54 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
Quoting sabres:
If I don't get any rain along the coast here in Brevard county (FL) with a strong trough like that, I think I'll just give up on getting any significant rainfall this summer altogether! So far this month I'm sitting at 0.06."


Very true. While most of Florida is in great shape, East Central FL is hurting. In south Osceola county we only had 4.48" for July and only 0.78" to date for August. We had a great June though with over 12".
Member Since: October 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 17
1025. FtMyersgal
1:54 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
I can believe that.There are photos that I saw of the hoods of cars being pilled back.Really stunning images to see.It's amazing the death toll was low in Charlie.


I think the death toll was low in large part because Charley was a relatively small, compact storm that moved very quickly. Never the less, that storm impacted many lives for years to come
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1219
1024. islander101010
1:52 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
el.nino.petering.out?
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 5008
1023. weathermanwannabe
1:51 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
Quoting BahaHurican:
Can you count Sister Janet Mead's song as "pop" music???

Now if the Jeopardy question asked for a pop song based on scripture and appropriate for describing the behaviour of at least one weathe phenomenon....


And the winning weather/trof/music song is?............. :)

Good Morning........Beautiful indeed this am for Florida and the Bahamas.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9413
1022. GeoffreyWPB
1:50 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11557
1021. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
1:50 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1020. LargoFl
1:49 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42267
1019. BahaHurican
1:49 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
@home, when do you have to go back to work? or have you all already started back?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
1018. BahaHurican
1:47 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
Quoting kshipre1:
yeah that seems likely. I was wondering because in 2004, south florida got hit by back to back hurricanes move westward moving systems not affected by troughs and that was a weak to moderate el nino. rest of season will be interesting.
Jeanne got pulled north by a trough, I think, but the high built back in before it could go all the way out to sea...

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
1017. AtHomeInTX
1:47 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
Running a few models on TW7 again. They look familiar. Link
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 254
1016. sabres
1:46 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
If I don't get any rain along the coast here in Brevard county (FL) with a strong trough like that, I think I'll just give up on getting any significant rainfall this summer altogether! So far this month I'm sitting at 0.06."
Member Since: February 15, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 26
1015. BahaHurican
1:46 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
Quoting mikatnight:


"The song is notable for being one of a few instances in popular music in which a large portion of scripture is set to music, other examples being The Melodians' "Rivers of Babylon", Sister Janet Mead's "The Lord's Prayer", and U2's "40"."

wikipedia
Can you count Sister Janet Mead's song as "pop" music???

Now if the Jeopardy question asked for a pop song based on scripture and appropriate for describing the behaviour of at least one weather phenomenon....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
1014. BahaHurican
1:44 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
Quoting RitaEvac:
This is how WWIII can accidently break out right here, over stupid stuff

U.S. destroyer, oil tanker collide

(CNN) -- A U.S. guided missile destroyer was involved in a collision with an oil tanker near the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. Navy announced.

u know any heads still attached to bodies have already rolled...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
1013. kshipre1
1:43 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
yeah that seems likely. I was wondering because in 2004, south florida got hit by back to back hurricanes move westward moving systems not affected by troughs and that was a weak to moderate el nino. rest of season will be interesting.
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1133
1012. RitaEvac
1:41 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
This is how WWIII can accidently break out right here, over stupid stuff

U.S. destroyer, oil tanker collide

(CNN) -- A U.S. guided missile destroyer was involved in a collision with an oil tanker near the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. Navy announced.

Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9686
1011. kshipre1
1:41 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
I agree with you and logically looking at the upper air pattern and continuous troughs moving down, it seems unlikely that a Frances or Jeanne path is not probable but I would not count that out because all it takes a strong High in the atlantic and a weak trough to steer a tropical storm or hurricane westward. really all about timing of troughs.
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1133
1010. hurricanehanna
1:41 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
Quoting Tazmanian:
Should be a vary good day for ex TD 7

Hey Taz. What do you think about all the dry air ahead of former TD7?
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3488
1009. BahaHurican
1:41 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


That would make a good music category question on Jeopardy........... :)
So for this I definitely have to go back and read the previous page... lol

Morning everybody... beautiful day here in Nassau, though I dare say the heat will be massive later on...

Enjoy your Monday!
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
1008. VR46L
1:40 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
Hmmm Rather interesting blob in the Bay of Campeche
Looks impressive in rainbow


Not to bad in funktop


and Vapour

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6998
1007. ncstorm
1:39 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Well up to now anyway the Bermuda High has been pretty strong too. I'm with you timing is the key. And it's not over yet. Would be nice but not yet.


yeah, too many parameters to dismiss the season..timing of troughs..placement of highs and depends on how strong the CV storms are..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
1006. mikatnight
1:37 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
Quoting sar2401:


Also the only secular hit song based on verses from the Bible - Ecclesiastes, chapter 3.


"The song is notable for being one of a few instances in popular music in which a large portion of scripture is set to music, other examples being The Melodians' "Rivers of Babylon", Sister Janet Mead's "The Lord's Prayer", and U2's "40"."

wikipedia
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
1005. StormTracker2K
1:33 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
Quoting kshipre1:
does anyone remember back in 2004 if we had this many early troughs?


There was a big one that turned Charley. That I think maybe the scenario this year.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
1004. AtHomeInTX
1:30 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
Well there's a rain cooled cool down I'll take it. :)

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 254
1003. Tazmanian
1:29 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
Should be a vary good day for ex TD 7
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
1002. kshipre1
1:28 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
does anyone remember back in 2004 if we had this many early troughs?
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1133
1001. weathermanwannabe
1:28 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
Quoting sar2401:


Also the only secular hit song based on verses from the Bible - Ecclesiastes, chapter 3.


That would make a good music category question on Jeopardy........... :)
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9413
1000. StormTracker2K
1:27 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
Quoting sar2401:


I agree. The long range models, especially the GFS, depict a series of strong troughs digging south over the three weeks. This is what we've been lacking in terms of pulling Eastern Caribbean storms north through the Yucatan Channel. As bad as it was in 2005, 2004 was no picnic. Anything that makes it intact into the central or eastern Caribbean will bear close watching.


A strong AB high and a strong trough along the east could spell a storm like Ivan or even Charley down the road but a Frances or Jeanne IMO isn't possible this year.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
999. sar2401
1:26 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
So any CV storms this coming season will be subject to the timing of the trofs and folks waiting for the "turn". Reminds me of an old tune by the Byrds:

To everything - turn, turn, turn
There is a season - turn, turn, turn
And a time for every purpose under heaven




Also the only secular hit song based on verses from the Bible - Ecclesiastes, chapter 3.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17471
998. kshipre1
1:26 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
exactly :)
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1133
997. Tazmanian
1:25 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
The NHC has put back the floter for ex td 7 all so wind shear has dop too 5kt where ex td 7 is heading
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
996. sar2401
1:23 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Or even worse.The high sends the storms west ward for a while into the caribbean and the troughs come and pick them up and bring them into the GOM like 2004.Storms tracks such as Ike,Isabel,Andrew,and Frances cannot be discounted.


I agree. The long range models, especially the GFS, depict a series of strong troughs digging south over the three weeks. This is what we've been lacking in terms of pulling Eastern Caribbean storms north through the Yucatan Channel. As bad as it was in 2005, 2004 was no picnic. Anything that makes it intact into the central or eastern Caribbean will bear close watching.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17471
995. StormTracker2K
1:22 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
yes a little better than it has been

Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 9:00 AM EDT Monday 13 August 2012
Condition: Mostly Cloudy
Pressure: 29.99 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 2

Temperature: 71.2°F
Dewpoint: 61.0°F
Humidity: 70 %
Wind: W 6 mph
Humidex: 80


more normal then anything better for work

i got to go iam late now


Give it a few days Keeper as the refridgerator door is about to open up big time.

As your high come Saturday will only be 69 which is actually warmer than what it will be across the Mid West. Wouldn't be surprised to see some high only in the 50's in Minnesota and on up to northern MI.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
994. weathermanwannabe
1:22 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
So any CV storms this coming season will be subject to the timing of the trofs and folks waiting for the "turn". Reminds me of an old tune by the Byrds:

To everything - turn, turn, turn
There is a season - turn, turn, turn
And a time for every purpose under heaven


Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9413
993. AtHomeInTX
1:19 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:


we had strong troughs in 2010 very early as well before summer ended..pulled Earl right up to the outerbanks..I wouldnt be calling every CV storm that goes north of the islands an out to sea scenario due to troughs..they actually aid in pulling the storms up north and it will also depend on timing when it makes it way to the east coast....


Well up to now anyway the Bermuda High has been pretty strong too. I'm with you timing is the key. And it's not over yet. Would be nice but not yet.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 254
992. sar2401
1:18 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Athens, GA set a record low of 60F on Saturday night/Sunday morning besting the old record low of 61F


Good morning, GS, we tied the old record of 61 here in Montgomery. It was still warm yesterdy but beautiful blue skies and dewpoints in the low 50's. I actually slept with the windows open and no A/C for the first time since the beginning of June. It was fantastic.

That forecast trough is a big one for August. The models seem to be backing off a bit on both moisture return and how far south the trough will dig. It sure does look like folks further north will have some severe weather to deal with in the Thursday-Saturday time period.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17471
991. WxLogic
1:13 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
Good Morning
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5038
990. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:12 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Getting cool yet Keeper?
yes a little better than it has been

Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 9:00 AM EDT Monday 13 August 2012
Condition: Mostly Cloudy
Pressure: 29.99 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 2

Temperature: 71.2°F
Dewpoint: 61.0°F
Humidity: 70 %
Wind: W 6 mph
Humidex: 80


more normal then anything better for work

i got to go iam late now
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
989. washingtonian115
1:12 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:


we had strong troughs in 2010 very early as well before summer ended..pulled Earl right up to the outerbanks..I wouldnt be calling every CV storm that goes north of the islands an out to sea scenario due to troughs..they actually aid in pulling the storms up north and it will also depend on timing when it makes it way to the east coast....
Or even worse.The high sends the storms west ward for a while into the caribbean and the troughs come and pick them up and bring them into the GOM like 2004.Storms tracks such as Ike,Isabel,Andrew,and Frances cannot be discounted.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17850
988. StormTracker2K
1:11 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Exactly. An El Nino situation with deeper, stronger troughs is generally more likely to allow systems to recurve before reaching the US. Every storm is its own case, however, and if we get even one big CV storm that doesn't have a trough to send it out to sea then the US could be in big trouble. Having said that Caribbean and Gulf developments still look to be our biggest threats, as usual.


Gulf and Caribbean maybe the main threat areas as we go forward.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
987. anglerfish
1:10 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
So quiet in the tropics... I keep forgetting we haven't even hit the peak of the season. Still plenty of time...
Member Since: July 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2
986. StormTracker2K
1:10 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:


we had strong troughs in 2010 very early as well before summer ended..pulled Earl right up to the outerbanks..I wouldnt be calling every CV storm that goes north of the islands an out to sea scenario due to troughs..they actually aid in pulling the storms up north and it will also depend on timing when it makes it way to the east coast....


Troughs are much stronger right now then this time in 2010. Also very different atmospheric dynamics in place as well.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
985. MAweatherboy1
1:08 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:


we had strong troughs in 2010 very early as well before summer ended..pulled Earl right up to the outerbanks..I wouldnt be calling every CV storm that goes north of the islands an out to sea scenario due to troughs..they actually aid in pulling the storms up north and it will also depend on timing when it makes it way to the east coast....

Exactly. An El Nino situation with deeper, stronger troughs is generally more likely to allow systems to recurve before reaching the US. Every storm is its own case, however, and if we get even one big CV storm that doesn't have a trough to send it out to sea then the US could be in big trouble. Having said that Caribbean and Gulf developments still look to be our biggest threats, as usual.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8049
984. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:07 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
good morning all

all quiet in the atlantic except for X07L
and a new area on the coast in the southern BOC
off to work for me
i will check in at lunch
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
983. washingtonian115
1:06 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
Quoting kwgirl:
Good morning all. Just checking in and I see we really have very little threats south of us. I can't by pass your comment even though I have not read back on this blog yet. I mentioned last week that I saw the first signs of swallows here in the Keys which means the birds are migrating north again early. This foretells an early winter. Though we had the same last year it wasn't much of a winter LOL. I think this year will be different.
We have different atmospheric conditions in play vs last year.So this will certainly be different than last year.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17850
982. ncstorm
1:04 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Again folks the only way the US will get hit from here on out is if a CV storm can sneak into the Caribbean and then recurve up toward the Gulf because anything that goes north of the islands will likely be fish bound.


we had strong troughs in 2010 very early as well before summer ended..pulled Earl right up to the outerbanks..I wouldnt be calling every CV storm that goes north of the islands an out to sea scenario due to troughs..they actually aid in pulling the storms up north and it will also depend on timing when it makes it way to the east coast....
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
981. StormTracker2K
1:04 PM GMT on August 13, 2012
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


a little spot on the sun today


Getting cool yet Keeper?
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651

Viewing: 1031 - 981

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
37 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron