Remains of TD 7 kill two in Trinidad; 93L too dry to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:31 PM GMT on August 12, 2012

Share this Blog
35
+

The remains of Tropical Depression Seven brought heavy rains to Trinidad on Saturday, unleashing flooding and mudslides that killed two people and left two others missing in Diego Martin. The storm is headed westward at 20 mph across the Caribbean, but high wind shear of 15 - 25 knots should prevent the system from regenerating. None of the reliable models forecasts that TD 7 will regenerate, and the storm should arrive in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-TD 7 a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.


Figure 1. An analysis of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) from 8 am EDT August 12, 2012. Very dry air from the Sahara (yellow and orange colors) surrounds the tropical wave designated 93L in the Central Atlantic. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS and NOAA/Hurricane Research Division.

93L
A large tropical wave(Invest 93L) is located in the Central Atlantic about 700 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show a pronounced spin to the atmosphere at mid levels, but little in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis from the University of Wisconsin shows that 93L is surrounded by a large area of dry air from the Sahara, which has infiltrated into the storm. This dry air will be a significant impediment to development, as the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that mid-levels of the atmosphere will remain very dry during the next four days. None of the reliable computer models develop 93L during the coming five days, and the storm is expected to move west-northwest and then north, recurving well to the east of Bermuda. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model is predicting 93L will develop into a tropical depression in about a week, once the storm recurves and begins heading northeast. At this point, it does not appear 93L will trouble any land areas.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 631 - 581

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

Quoting Skyepony:
14W Philippines in for another drowning.

Sadly yes I feel bad for them all season they are always impact I think with China are the two most countries impact by tropical cyclones.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4401
630. yoboi
Quoting Tazmanian:




why do you keep asking the same ? evere day its not going too change wait for monday update


what time do they give the update ???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:
Well-defined circulation can be seen peaking out from underneath ex-TD7. Go to the link below, set it to 20 frames, zoom in on high where TD7 is located, and turn your speed to faster so you can see it better.

Link
I see it. It's on the south side of the convection.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
628. Skyepony (Mod)
14W Philippines in for another drowning.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 12 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR ARUBA
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 900 MILES
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE AFTER THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well-defined circulation can be seen peaking out from underneath ex-TD7. Go to the link below, set it to 20 frames, zoom in on high where TD7 is located, and turn your speed to faster so you can see it better.

Link
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting washingtonian115:
That's even if we get down there.All though this season I highly doubt it with El nino flying in.
Agree I think Patty will be the last or Oscar. Omg one direction was amazing in the Olympics hope one day I can meet them.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4401
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54360
Quoting islander101010:
wet.evening.costa.rica.http://surfinnhermosa.com/ #l ivecam


Thanks for the link..
Nice little breakers there.. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
622. txjac
Quoting fldude99:


Yea? Get a real life


I'm sure that when TA13 is grown up and on his own he will have a "real" life. You should be happy that he is interested and passionate about weather and tropical storms instead of causing issues as so many of today's youth do
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I dont think so my friend as Euro has it at 240 hours around 13N-51W if you look closely at the 12z run.


the Euro has it starting at 168 hours with the first storm along with the second storm coming in view at 192 hour..the Nogaps show it at 180 hours which I posted..pretty much around the same time..the euro could be a little fast and the nogaps could be a little slow but its still around the same time frame



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting allancalderini:
Rafael sounds threatenig too if we reach him which am not sure.
That's even if we get down there.All though this season I highly doubt it with El nino flying in.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting lovemamatus:


TD 7 30% 93L 0 New System: Red 70!!!!! Shocker!!!!




wishcaster
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115239
618. txjac
Quoting redwagon:



Tropical Cyclone forecast has purpling up the GOM lately, something finally has to hatch?


Thinking the same thing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
Isaac or Kirk are you going to be the bad boys this season?.Or just one of yous?.Lol.
Rafael sounds threatenig too if we reach him which am not sure.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4401
Quoting txjac:
I'm here in Texas ...nothing going on here except Heat! I do see that Dallas and areas to the west will be getting storms ...hope that they move this way. Would love some cooling rain.

I'll be here with you Largo watching to see what happens



Tropical Cyclone forecast has purpling up the GOM lately, something finally has to hatch?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
this two is starting too become a little old now


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 12 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR ARUBA
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 900 MILES
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE AFTER THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115239
Here is a 5 day loop of the SAL for anyone who wants to take a peak. Link
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Isaac or Kirk are you going to be the bad boys this season?.Or just one of yous?.Lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nigel20:

I'm good especially after a great Olympics for Jamaica.
Yeah I watch one direction performing.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4401
here how i see the 8pm two


ex TD 7 %10 93L %0
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115239
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
just finish watching the closing good show thats all i will say till everyone gets a chance to see it

Agreed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aspectre:
572 GTcooliebai: Hey anybody know how to animate and embed a java movie in here.

Please DON'T. Eats up LOTS of megabytes, AND the site is comparatively slow to load.
Just leave a link along with a description. Those who are interested will view it, and the WUpage won't clog up those who aren't.
Oh ok maybe that is why I don't ever see Java script posted in here.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
wet.evening.costa.rica.http://surfinnhermosa.com/#l ivecam
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nigel20:

I'm good especially after a great Olympics for Jamaica.
just finish watching the closing good show thats all i will say till everyone gets a chance to see it
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54360
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm ready for a long tracked major hurricane.


Yea? Get a real life
Member Since: July 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 574
Quoting allancalderini:
I am fine thanks for asking and you?

I'm good especially after a great Olympics for Jamaica.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
602. txjac
I'm here in Texas ...nothing going on here except Heat! I do see that Dallas and areas to the west will be getting storms ...hope that they move this way. Would love some cooling rain.

I'll be here with you Largo watching to see what happens
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A storm like Danielle of 2010 will be amazing to track.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4401
LONG TERM...
MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHING THE AREA TUESDAY
BUT BEST PUSH SHUNTS EASTWARD RATHER QUICKLY. THIS MAY YIELD A
BETTER FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHEN SEA BREEZE
ADVANCES INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE. ANOTHER...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY
STRONGER FRONT SETTLES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY FOR YET ANOTHER
CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A LARGE
CONTINENTAL HIGH BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST 40 PERCENT POPS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE AND HUMID AS
GULF MOISTURE POOLS ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONES DURING THE WEEK. 24/RR

From N.O NWS Discussion another strong trough next
weekend?....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
....this area near Dallas is getting warnings, stay safe over there
Weak front colliding with temps above 105 is producing some storms, not much moisture to work with though
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hopefully we will will have an interesting winter. King Tutt wins once again IMO.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
any folks from texas lurking..gee the warnings for texas are swarming one after another...how IS IT over there?..bad?..................202
WUUS54 KFWD 122318
SVRFWD
TXC439-130015-
/O.NEW.KFWD.SV.W.0257.120812T2318Z-120813T0015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
618 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN TARRANT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 618 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES
NORTHWEST OF PECAN ACRES...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
PELICAN BAY AROUND 625 PM...
PECAN ACRES AND AZLE AROUND 630 PM...
EAGLE MOUNTAIN AROUND 640 PM...
HASLET AND LAKE WORTH AROUND 650 PM...
SAGINAW AND SANSOM PARK AROUND 655 PM...
BLUE MOUND AROUND 700 PM...

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...
I-35W BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 54 AND 70...
I-820 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 8 AND 26.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO A STURDY SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A STRONG BUILDING AND
STAY INSIDE...AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.



LAT...LON 3298 9704 3291 9703 3275 9704 3272 9731
3290 9755 3298 9755 3299 9754
TIME...MOT...LOC 2318Z 299DEG 19KT 3300 9753



85/NH
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39193
572 GTcooliebai: Hey anybody know how to animate and embed a java movie in here.

Please DON'T. Eats up LOTS of megabytes, AND that particular site is comparatively slow to load.
Just leave a link along with a description of what you see. Those who are interested will view it, and the WUpage won't clog up those who aren't.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
yes it is sad alright, gee we had alot of fun back then, loved to hear..schools closed today..snow day LOL


Very few 'snow days' for schools in the Catskills. They'd still have school and those of us up on mountains the buses couldn't get to would be marked present. But we got to stay home and never had to 'make it up' at the end of school. We'd get lots of those days back then.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm ready for a long tracked major hurricane.



same here
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115239
Quoting nigel20:

Hey allan! How have you been?
I am fine thanks for asking and you?
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4401
Quoting MississippiWx:
SAL is starting to diminish. Almost that time of the year....


I'm ready for a long tracked major hurricane.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
Quoting nigel20:

Hey Tropics! Today was a warm and dry day across Jamaica!


Hi nigel. I was expecting plenty of rain as Ex TD7 passed to our south but there was almost no rain and it was very warm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yoboi:
what's elnino looking like?




why do you keep asking the same ? evere day its not going too change wait for monday update
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115239
Quoting txjac:


I grew up in Ohio and remember lots of snow when I was young. Loved the big lake effect snow that we used to get. When I go home for holidays there isnt any snow ...quite sad
yes it is sad alright, gee we had alot of fun back then, loved to hear..schools closed today..snow day LOL
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39193
Quoting LargoFl:
gee i remember growing up in NYC in the 50's..we always got 2-3 foot snow storms in winter, the city seemed to shut down for a few days..for a kid, it was great, making snow forts in the middle of the street and oh man, the snow ball fights....then things changed, the snow fall amounts lessened..today if they get a foot of snow its a big deal..the weather HAS changed and maybe 30 years from now..any snow fall will be a big deal..we humans need to change, along WITH the weather changes, the earth is warming..and like the dinosaurs..we ignore it to our peril, sometime in the future..wars may be fought horribly..over plain drinking water and who has it..scary huh


Right on.. Born in '52 and remember those winters well!
Member Since: July 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 574
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I dont think so my friend as Euro has it at 240 hours around 13N-51W if you look closely at the 12z run.

Hey Tropics! Today was a warm and dry day across Jamaica!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

#1 dry air is leaving yeah #2 its moistening up around the system #3 yes temp are hot #4 I did not say no shear but less shear EX-TD7 is getting there, not there yet, but getting close.



yeah and because of that we could have a rapidly strengthening storm in the caribbean and with those conducive conditions be a cat 1 hurricane near the caymans by wednesday!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I love it when you lose power and have to wait for DIRECTV to reboot.


Why is that? Is that some sort of sickness?
Member Since: July 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 574
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39193
583. txjac
Quoting LargoFl:
..yes the weather has changed, and people forget..its the melting snow, that replenishes the lakes and water supplies up there, less snow, less water


I grew up in Ohio and remember lots of snow when I was young. Loved the big lake effect snow that we used to get. When I go home for holidays there isnt any snow ...quite sad
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
582. yoboi
what's elnino looking like?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
gee Texas is active tonight with storms.......................648
WUUS54 KSJT 122309
SVRSJT
TXC059-417-122345-
/O.NEW.KSJT.SV.W.0153.120812T2309Z-120812T2345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
609 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN SHACKELFORD COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN CALLAHAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 600 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MORAN...OR 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

WITH POSSIBLE STORM IMPACTS...
A FEW VEHICLE DENTS...
MINOR ROOF AND PLASTIC SIGN DAMAGE...
SOME TREE LIMB DAMAGE...WEAKENED TREES TOPPLED...
UNSECURED LIGHT OBJECTS BLOWN AROUND...
SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE...
POTENTIALLY DEADLY LIGHTNING.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
MORAN BY 615 PM CDT...
I-20 NEAR THE CALLAHAN-EASTLAND COUNTY LINE BY 645 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
SUNDAY EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.



LAT...LON 3265 9909 3252 9909 3251 9911 3236 9911
3235 9912 3257 9932 3270 9917
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 312DEG 14KT 3258 9916

Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39193

Viewing: 631 - 581

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.