Remains of TD 7 kill two in Trinidad; 93L too dry to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:31 PM GMT on August 12, 2012

Share this Blog
35
+

The remains of Tropical Depression Seven brought heavy rains to Trinidad on Saturday, unleashing flooding and mudslides that killed two people and left two others missing in Diego Martin. The storm is headed westward at 20 mph across the Caribbean, but high wind shear of 15 - 25 knots should prevent the system from regenerating. None of the reliable models forecasts that TD 7 will regenerate, and the storm should arrive in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-TD 7 a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.


Figure 1. An analysis of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) from 8 am EDT August 12, 2012. Very dry air from the Sahara (yellow and orange colors) surrounds the tropical wave designated 93L in the Central Atlantic. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS and NOAA/Hurricane Research Division.

93L
A large tropical wave(Invest 93L) is located in the Central Atlantic about 700 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show a pronounced spin to the atmosphere at mid levels, but little in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis from the University of Wisconsin shows that 93L is surrounded by a large area of dry air from the Sahara, which has infiltrated into the storm. This dry air will be a significant impediment to development, as the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that mid-levels of the atmosphere will remain very dry during the next four days. None of the reliable computer models develop 93L during the coming five days, and the storm is expected to move west-northwest and then north, recurving well to the east of Bermuda. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model is predicting 93L will develop into a tropical depression in about a week, once the storm recurves and begins heading northeast. At this point, it does not appear 93L will trouble any land areas.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 681 - 631

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

Quoting JLPR2:
Next possible low starting to spin right at the coast of Africa, further south than I expected it to.



Yes,10N-17W at 700 mb.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N18W TO 20N17W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE EMERGED OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA AFTER 12/1200 UTC
EARLIER THIS MORNING AND COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB LOW NEAR THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N17W. THE 700 MB
TROUGHING EXTENDS NORTHWARD ALONG 18N TO 21N. ALSO...TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS
LOCATED FROM 06N-17N E OF 22W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-13N BETWEEN 12W-22W.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13909
680. JLPR2
Next possible low starting to spin right at the coast of Africa, further south than I expected it to.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8482
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
Wow look at the gulf.only thing stopping a storm from getting in there at the moment is the blocking ridge pattern.So regeneration seems more and more likely as ex T.D 7 finds its self in a better environment.
Maybe it will be Gordon after all.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 3949
Quoting BahaHurican:
Still can't figure out why NBC didn't show it live and then do their post-Olympic summary afterward... it is Sunday, after all... but gotta say this was a pretty good Olympics... no major national incidents, lots of great competition, and some noteworthy firsts....

I am very proud of our athletes they were a class act.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormpetrol:
Wow look at the gulf.only thing stopping a storm from getting in there at the moment is the blocking ridge pattern.So regeneration seems more and more likely as ex T.D 7 finds its self in a better environment.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
I don't know about cooling rain, but how about just cooler? The 6-10 day shows something we haven't seen since April: a blob of cooler air sinking southward:

cool?

While the 8-14 day shows something the drought-stricken areas haven't seen. It'll be too little, too late to help with this year's well-crisped crops.
But, still: rain.

cool?


Hopefully it can sink to the Gulf and cool off the shelf water a bit.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NEWS BULLETIN!!!!


IT DID NOT, REPEAT DID NOT, RAIN IN PENSACOLA TODAY!!!




Film at 11.


nor did it in Elberta!!! 1st day since..since...dang i really can't remember the last time it hassn't..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
NEWS BULLETIN!!!!


IT DID NOT, REPEAT DID NOT, RAIN IN PENSACOLA TODAY!!!




Film at 11.


Good night to go to a Wahoo's game.. :)
(I couldn't get tickets)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Look for exTD & to ramp up at around 75W.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NEWS BULLETIN!!!!


IT DID NOT, REPEAT DID NOT, RAIN IN PENSACOLA TODAY!!!




Film at 11.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


A recent Windsat not Closed, but getting close!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
668. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi Skye. The graphic is small and I can't see clearly what I am looking at.


Click on the image.. I link those to the cloudsat page. Click on the yellow box 17.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi Skye. The graphic is small and I can't see clearly what I am looking at.

They fill my screen when I right click and choose "View image".
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like exTD 7 is staring to slow down a notch!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Skyepony:
Fresh Cloudsat of the latest wave coming off Africa.


Hi Skye. The graphic is small and I can't see clearly what I am looking at.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13909
664. Skyepony (Mod)
Fresh Cloudsat of the latest wave coming off Africa.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
just finish watching the closing good show thats all i will say till everyone gets a chance to see it
Still can't figure out why NBC didn't show it live and then do their post-Olympic summary afterward... it is Sunday, after all... but gotta say this was a pretty good Olympics... no major national incidents, lots of great competition, and some noteworthy firsts....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21146
659. Skyepony (Mod)
TRMM of 07L hitting the islands lastnight. Missed the most severe part. Click pic for quicktime. Neat is on the A side the clouds near SA are so mush higher than the tropical clouds associated with 07L.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormpetrol:


Lmao!!! Good one Taz, you always brighten up a dreary day!




thanks i better re move it no lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nigel20:

I'm good especially after a great Olympics for Jamaica.
Hey nige... guess u r all partied out... lol... good haul for JA and the Caribbean as a whole...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21146
Quoting Tazmanian:



blind?




Lmao!!! Good one Taz, you always brighten up a dreary day!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Does anyone think the wave that just emerged from Africa have any chance.Sal doesn't seem to be a problem and neither does shear.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormpetrol:
There is no one as blind as he who refuses to see!



.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
There is no one as blind as he who refuses to see!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
651. yoboi
Quoting Tazmanian:




your feeding a troll



did not know they was a troll...my bad
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
650. etxwx
New Storm Coming: 150 towns, cities still underwater
12 August 2012 16:21
Excerpt: MANILA (AFP) - Emergency relief officials and doctors deployed to flood devastated communities in the Philippines Sunday to prevent outbreaks of disease as the death toll jumped to 85.

The flooding that submerged 80 percent of Manila early in the week has largely subsided but more than 150 towns and cities around the capital remain under water, affecting more than three million people.

Amid the ongoing relief operation, the weather bureau warned of a low pressure area developing some 850 kilometers (528 miles) to the east in the Pacific Ocean that could turn into a storm and bring more rain.

Many provinces around Manila remained inundated as overflowing dams continued to release water, the national disaster coordinating agency said.

Relief workers were dealing with "clogged pipelines and trash everywhere. Sanitation has emerged as a key problem," Red Cross secretary general Gwendolyn Pang told AFP.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
649. Skyepony (Mod)
Fresh ASCAT of the latest wave coming off Africa.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yoboi:



why ya say that?




your feeding a troll
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
645. yoboi
Quoting CANTBELIEVEIT:
The 2012 season is done, toast, over and was over forcast again



why ya say that?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I don't know if my eyes are playing a trick on me?,or I'm looking at ex-TD#7 moving more North west than West,if this is so?,even if this feature don't develop it can impact the Islands,PR,DR & Cuba and maybe South Florida with a lot of rain in the next few days!!.As you can see from the satellite loop it's already affecting the Dominican Republic,so will see what happens,don't see this going straigh into the southern part of the Yucatan peninsula.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
People in the mid west will be happy to see that chart :).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CANTBELIEVEIT:
The 2012 season is done, toast, over and was over forcast again




shut it all ready
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
640. yoboi
Quoting Tazmanian:



bookmark this link they update evere monday i think at 9am


Link



thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
639. txjac
Quoting Neapolitan:
I don't know about cooling rain, but how about just cooler? The 6-10 day shows something we haven't seen since April: a blob of cooler air sinking southward:

cool?

While the 8-14 day shows something the drought-stricken areas haven't seen. It'll be too little, too late to help with this year's well-crisped crops.
But, still: rain.

cool?


I'll take that cooler weather Nea!
Terrible about crops. I was in Ohio weak before last and I could have swore I was back in Texas ..the ground was hard as a rock, grass was like straw. Corn and soybeans there look like they might be okay though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
I don't know about cooling rain, but how about just cooler? The 6-10 day shows something we haven't seen since April: a blob of cooler air sinking southward:

cool?

While the 8-14 day shows something the drought-stricken areas haven't seen. It'll be too little, too late to help with this year's well-crisped crops.
But, still: rain.

cool?
Atmosphere starting to look more El nino now.August 2009 comes to mind.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
I don't know about cooling rain, but how about just cooler? The 6-10 day shows something we haven't seen since April: a blob of cooler air sinking southward:

cool?

While the 8-14 day shows something the drought-stricken areas haven't seen. It'll be too little, too late to help with this year's well-crisped crops.
But, still: rain.

cool?


They have a blue color for that map? Who knew?
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
Quoting txjac:


I'm sure that when TA13 is grown up and on his own he will have a "real" life. You should be happy that he is interested and passionate about weather and tropical storms instead of causing issues as so many of today's youth do

TA13 has also developed perfect diction, which will set him far above the others, and a serene sense of temper that sharpens his diplomatic nature.

He is a statesman, and if he can anticipate those 'phases' and steer around them, he will be unbeatable.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3083
Quoting txjac:
I'm here in Texas ...nothing going on here except Heat! I do see that Dallas and areas to the west will be getting storms ...hope that they move this way. Would love some cooling rain.
I don't know about cooling rain, but how about just cooler? The 6-10 day shows something we haven't seen since April: a blob of cooler air sinking southward:

cool?

While the 8-14 day shows something the drought-stricken areas haven't seen. It'll be too little, too late to help with this year's well-crisped crops.
But, still: rain.

cool?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yoboi:


what time do they give the update ???



bookmark this link they update evere monday i think at 9am


Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
633. etxwx
Beijing to build flood pools after deadly storm
BEIJING - Authorities are planning to build 20 underground flood pools in downtown Beijing to improve the Chinese capital's flood-control capacity after a devastating rainstorm killed 79 people last month.
The flood pools will be built near low-lying traffic passages that are most vulnerable to flash floods. Many of the existing passages are dilapidated and because of their location are frequently inundated in the rainy season, officials with Beijing's water supply bureau said Sunday. The pools are expected to be completed before summer next year. The main concern will be avoiding underground pipes, subway lines and building foundations while building the pools, officials said. Beijing was battered by the heaviest rain in six decades on July 21. The government put the death toll at 79 in its latest tally.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I see it. It's on the south side of the convection.


Yep...shear is killing it for now, and the fast trade flow.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
Quoting Skyepony:
14W Philippines in for another drowning.

Sadly yes I feel bad for them all season they are always impact I think with China are the two most countries impact by tropical cyclones.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 3949

Viewing: 681 - 631

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Scattered Clouds
56 °F
Scattered Clouds