Remains of TD 7 kill two in Trinidad; 93L too dry to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:31 PM GMT on August 12, 2012

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The remains of Tropical Depression Seven brought heavy rains to Trinidad on Saturday, unleashing flooding and mudslides that killed two people and left two others missing in Diego Martin. The storm is headed westward at 20 mph across the Caribbean, but high wind shear of 15 - 25 knots should prevent the system from regenerating. None of the reliable models forecasts that TD 7 will regenerate, and the storm should arrive in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-TD 7 a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.


Figure 1. An analysis of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) from 8 am EDT August 12, 2012. Very dry air from the Sahara (yellow and orange colors) surrounds the tropical wave designated 93L in the Central Atlantic. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS and NOAA/Hurricane Research Division.

93L
A large tropical wave(Invest 93L) is located in the Central Atlantic about 700 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show a pronounced spin to the atmosphere at mid levels, but little in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis from the University of Wisconsin shows that 93L is surrounded by a large area of dry air from the Sahara, which has infiltrated into the storm. This dry air will be a significant impediment to development, as the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that mid-levels of the atmosphere will remain very dry during the next four days. None of the reliable computer models develop 93L during the coming five days, and the storm is expected to move west-northwest and then north, recurving well to the east of Bermuda. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model is predicting 93L will develop into a tropical depression in about a week, once the storm recurves and begins heading northeast. At this point, it does not appear 93L will trouble any land areas.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting lovemamatus:
Does it get a circle at 11? I need a circle, real soon.

We don't need no stinkin circles!!
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English finished extremely strong in the Olympics. An hour of their best music. Little Floyd even. Could have made a little better choice in songs, but they wen't from sentimental to upbeat in their choice, so I dig it. Most didn't get the opening completely. It was an dedication more to WWI and WWII, which still resonates in England big time.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Quoting lovemamatus:
Does it get a circle at 11? I need a circle, real soon.


This should hold you over...

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Quoting JLPR2:


Probably drugs...

How else could one explain that? XD


more like the stairs
are not making it
all the way to the landing
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my new tropical weather graphic... hope its understandable...

LATEST UPDATE... ALL EDT TIME otherwise specified
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Quoting Grothar:


It's not that slow.


Thanks for the plus! :)
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What's off the Carolina coast is more interesting than exTD07 at this point. Afraid the wave is far outrunning the main convection left from exTD07. Levi had a very interesting assessment a few pages back. I'm feeling pretty good that exTD07 will not reform at this point. Didn't look that way earlier today. Like how the NHC handles things calmly.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Since it's slow...on this day in history...

The Wizard of Oz movie musical premieres in Oconomowoc, Wisconsin


It's not that slow.
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165HR 1012MB in the BOC
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4519
717. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL STORM KAI-TAK (T1213)
9:00 AM JST August 13 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Kai-Tak (998 hPa) located at 16.5N 128.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 18.1N 127.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 19.5N 125.5E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 21.4N 122.8E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South Of Okinawa
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716. JLPR2
Seems like the spin is near 12n 18w.



Ehh... Just something to watch.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8691
Check FRONTS and MSLP here

Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128269
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Link
What am I seeing off north Carolina? lots of convection.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128269
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710. JLPR2
Quoting txjac:


No kidding. I think that weatherman posted that earlier before he left. Looks strange


With a inactive ITCZ dry air has a chance to enter the area.



Making things more unfavorable for TWs moving through the area.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8691
Things seem a bit slow.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
????.



He likely wish casting lol
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707. txjac
Quoting JLPR2:
Something just out of the blue that I noticed...

Where did the ITCZ go?



XD


No kidding. I think that weatherman posted that earlier before he left. Looks strange
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Quoting JLPR2:


Probably drugs...

How else could one explain that? XD

Okay now that actually made me laugh out loud really hard.ROFLMAO.
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Since it's slow...on this day in history...

The Wizard of Oz movie musical premieres in Oconomowoc, Wisconsin
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704. JLPR2
New wave clearly visible in the 850mb level.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8691




Still there post from iPad let me no if it post
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702. JLPR2
Quoting washingtonian115:
????.


Probably drugs...

How else could one explain that? XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8691
Quoting washingtonian115:
Where'd everyone go?.


Slow day haha, not much to talk about right now except the ghost of TD7.
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Quoting lovemamatus:
Or, everyone is out looking for an alternative to the SHIPS run, which will undoubtedly show TD 7 in 2 days when it is TS Gordon at 158mph in the gulf. I don't see it beyond a weak Cat 4 (140 mph) at landfall. Im betting on Corpus Christie.The cone is getting smaller.
????.
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Quoting lovemamatus:
Or, everyone is out looking for an alternative to the SHIPS run, which will undoubtedly show TD 7 in 2 days when it is TS Gordon at 158mph in the gulf. I don't see it beyond a weak Cat 4 (140 mph) at landfall. Im betting on Corpus Christie.The cone is getting smaller.



Some one is wish casting
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Where'd everyone go?.


Some may be watching the closing Olympics ceremony.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14253
696. JLPR2
Something just out of the blue that I noticed...

Where did the ITCZ go?



XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8691
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Quoting txjac:


Still here wash ...just reading other news for a bit
It's probably half empty because the young'ins go to weather chat.This lull in activity won't last long though.
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Quoting midgulfmom:
Back for a bit....sorry if repetitive but....anything to the Yucatan blob? ExTD 7 (sounds like the name of a mosquito spray) shaping up pretty good IMHO....
the Yucatan blob looks interesting.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Where'd everyone go?.




Likey Injoying the fall weather on the town tonight or all at home getting ready for the next day
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690. txjac
Quoting washingtonian115:
Where'd everyone go?.


Still here wash ...just reading other news for a bit
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Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15286
Where'd everyone go?.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey nige... guess u r all partied out... lol... good haul for JA and the Caribbean as a whole...

Amen to that.
:):))
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.
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Quoting allancalderini:
Maybe it will be Gordon after all.
Lol.Still fighting to get the name.93L may also develop once it get's out of the dry dusty air.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
As awful as he looks, Hector's pressure came down 3mb at the 0z ATCF update.

All I see is a mass of convection.
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Back for a bit....sorry if repetitive but....anything to the Yucatan blob? ExTD 7 (sounds like the name of a mosquito spray) shaping up pretty good IMHO....
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As awful as he looks, Hector's pressure came down 3mb at the 0z ATCF update.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7779
Quoting stormpetrol:
Look for exTD & to ramp up at around 75W.
i am in agreement.
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Quoting JLPR2:
Next possible low starting to spin right at the coast of Africa, further south than I expected it to.



Yes,10N-17W at 700 mb.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N18W TO 20N17W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE EMERGED OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA AFTER 12/1200 UTC
EARLIER THIS MORNING AND COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB LOW NEAR THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N17W. THE 700 MB
TROUGHING EXTENDS NORTHWARD ALONG 18N TO 21N. ALSO...TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS
LOCATED FROM 06N-17N E OF 22W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-13N BETWEEN 12W-22W.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14253

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.