Remains of TD 7 kill two in Trinidad; 93L too dry to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:31 PM GMT on August 12, 2012

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The remains of Tropical Depression Seven brought heavy rains to Trinidad on Saturday, unleashing flooding and mudslides that killed two people and left two others missing in Diego Martin. The storm is headed westward at 20 mph across the Caribbean, but high wind shear of 15 - 25 knots should prevent the system from regenerating. None of the reliable models forecasts that TD 7 will regenerate, and the storm should arrive in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-TD 7 a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.


Figure 1. An analysis of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) from 8 am EDT August 12, 2012. Very dry air from the Sahara (yellow and orange colors) surrounds the tropical wave designated 93L in the Central Atlantic. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS and NOAA/Hurricane Research Division.

93L
A large tropical wave(Invest 93L) is located in the Central Atlantic about 700 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show a pronounced spin to the atmosphere at mid levels, but little in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis from the University of Wisconsin shows that 93L is surrounded by a large area of dry air from the Sahara, which has infiltrated into the storm. This dry air will be a significant impediment to development, as the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that mid-levels of the atmosphere will remain very dry during the next four days. None of the reliable computer models develop 93L during the coming five days, and the storm is expected to move west-northwest and then north, recurving well to the east of Bermuda. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model is predicting 93L will develop into a tropical depression in about a week, once the storm recurves and begins heading northeast. At this point, it does not appear 93L will trouble any land areas.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Dang, just check out the 12z euro... if that pans out, that storm could be trouble for the islands and the u.s. later on
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Kinda slow so read around the gulf NWS...

Lake Charles

GFS LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE ON DEVELOPING A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OUT
OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON FRIDAY AND PUSHING IT NORTH TO THE
MEXICO COAST BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF JUST CARRIES A WEAK
DISTURBANCE AND DOESN`T DEVELOP IT AS MUCH. I PREFER THE MORE TAME
ECMWF SOLUTION AS DEVELOPMENT OCCURS TO FAST AND WOUND UP TO TIGHT
FOR THE GFS. ECMWF SOLUTION MORE APPROPRIATE FOR BEYOND DAY 7 AS I
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED
STATES NEXT WEEK.

Houston

IN THE EXTENDED THE REMNANTS OF WHAT APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN TD7
MANAGE TO CROSS THE CARRIBBEAN AND GENERATE SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. 12Z GFS KIND OF BULLISH ON A LOW
DEVELOPING WITH THE ECMWF LESS AGGRESSIVE. SOMETHING TO MONITOR
FOR THE WEEKEND BUT FOR NOW WOULD EXPECT THE WEAKER ECM SOLUTION
TO BE CLOSER TO THE TRUTH. BEARS WATCHING.

Corpus Christi

GULF MOISTURE INCREASES FRI AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF TD#7 ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN GULF. IN ADDITION MOISTURE WILL POOL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
COMBINATION OF BOTH FACTORS IS ENOUGH TO PLACE CHC POPS IN THE
WEEKEND EXTENDED FORECAST. THE GFS IS MORE AGRESSIVE AND SPINS UP A
SPOT LOW NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST...WHERE AS THE ECMWF MAINTAINS AN
OPEN WAVE.

Brownsville

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY THE
WEEKEND. GFS HINTS ON DEVELOPING A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WITH THIS WAVE
AND KEEP THE RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE ECMWF 12Z MODEL
HAS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AT THIS TIME WITH THIS WAVE REACHING
THE LOWER TEXAS GULF BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. CMC IS THE OUTLIER
LEAVING THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH EXPANDED ACROSS THE WEST AND INTO THE
GULF BLOCKING THE LOWER VALLEY COMPLETELY OF ANY CONVECTION.


My friends dad is the head of the nws in lake Charles she never said his name but hers is Patrick so I'm assuming that's his too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Kinda slow so read around the gulf NWS...

Lake Charles

GFS LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE ON DEVELOPING A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OUT
OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON FRIDAY AND PUSHING IT NORTH TO THE
MEXICO COAST BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF JUST CARRIES A WEAK
DISTURBANCE AND DOESN`T DEVELOP IT AS MUCH. I PREFER THE MORE TAME
ECMWF SOLUTION AS DEVELOPMENT OCCURS TO FAST AND WOUND UP TO TIGHT
FOR THE GFS. ECMWF SOLUTION MORE APPROPRIATE FOR BEYOND DAY 7 AS I
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED
STATES NEXT WEEK.

Houston

IN THE EXTENDED THE REMNANTS OF WHAT APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN TD7
MANAGE TO CROSS THE CARRIBBEAN AND GENERATE SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. 12Z GFS KIND OF BULLISH ON A LOW
DEVELOPING WITH THE ECMWF LESS AGGRESSIVE. SOMETHING TO MONITOR
FOR THE WEEKEND BUT FOR NOW WOULD EXPECT THE WEAKER ECM SOLUTION
TO BE CLOSER TO THE TRUTH. BEARS WATCHING.

Corpus Christi

GULF MOISTURE INCREASES FRI AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF TD#7 ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN GULF. IN ADDITION MOISTURE WILL POOL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
COMBINATION OF BOTH FACTORS IS ENOUGH TO PLACE CHC POPS IN THE
WEEKEND EXTENDED FORECAST. THE GFS IS MORE AGRESSIVE AND SPINS UP A
SPOT LOW NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST...WHERE AS THE ECMWF MAINTAINS AN
OPEN WAVE.

Brownsville

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY THE
WEEKEND. GFS HINTS ON DEVELOPING A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WITH THIS WAVE
AND KEEP THE RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE ECMWF 12Z MODEL
HAS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AT THIS TIME WITH THIS WAVE REACHING
THE LOWER TEXAS GULF BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. CMC IS THE OUTLIER
LEAVING THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH EXPANDED ACROSS THE WEST AND INTO THE
GULF BLOCKING THE LOWER VALLEY COMPLETELY OF ANY CONVECTION.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
I just had a impersonator in weather chat!


It's one guy probably JFV or somebody
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I just had a impersonator in weather chat!
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775. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


No,is at 240 hours.



Oh wow.. Well other than the 240hrs out.
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Quoting Grothar:
Who's on first? This read like and Abbott and Costello dialogue.


I don't think it's that funny...
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I think felix 2007 has a problem with an imposter too
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Who's on first? This reads like an Abbott and Costello dialogue.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25488
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You just said the same thing in 754 though. XD


I accidentally copied it and pasted into a text message and it sent.... The girl said text me when youre mature gtg by
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how can this develop inside the dry air...such a waste
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769. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Also be on the look out for FeIix2007 (I instead of L), and WxGeeekVA.


Ah... The good old ignore list keeps growing.
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GFS has the same system on the 20th,but a bit weaker.
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Quoting scott39:
TS at 158mph!?!? LMAO


so..just for the sake of laughter..

what a change must be done to the SSHWS if Ts winds were at 158 mph... what a cat 5 wind speeds would be? 270-300 mph??? lol
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Quoting Skyepony:


This? 93L pulling together? Other models have been anticipating this.


No,is at 240 hours.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You just said the same thing in 754 though. XD
After you finish tonight change ur portrait comment once and leave so we know
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764. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Check the 12z Euro. There is something very interesting at MDR. But is the first run that model shows it.


This? 93L pulling together? Other models have been anticipating this.
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763. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You just said the same thing in 754 though. XD


Nope, that one has the i. :P
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762. etxwx
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just a heads up, my impostor's account is allowed to post on the blog in 12 hours, so....if anything bad happens while I'm at school tomorrow, you guys know it isn't me.

We'll have to keep an eye on the join date and post count to confirm it's not you and make the Troll13 go *poof*. I agree you should email the admin.
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I see NOGAPS has a strong system coming off Africa on the 20th.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Dude that's you real handle, if people copy that into their ignore lists they ignore you, edit it.

You just said the same thing in 754 though. XD
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31563
Also be on the look out for FeIix2007 (I instead of L), and WxGeeekVA.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31563
And 93L Hooking before Bermuda?
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757. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

TropicalAnalystwx13.


Dude that's your real handle, if people copy that into their ignore lists they ignore you, edit it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Models still taking Ex TD7 into Central America?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

TropicalAnalystwx13.


Not you stupid the imposter
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754. JLPR2
Quoting weatherh98:


What's the account name?


TropicalAnaIystwx13

If you copy that and paste it in notepad you will notice the i.
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Quoting weatherh98:


What's the account name?


Looks exactly the same as his but has I instead of L
Member Since: July 12, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 383
Quoting weatherh98:


What's the account name?

TropicaIAnaIystwx13.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31563
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just a heads up, my impostor's account is allowed to post on the blog in 12 hours, so....if anything bad happens while I'm at school tomorrow, you guys know it isn't me.


What's the account name?
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Check the 12z Euro. There is something very interesting at MDR. But is the first run that model shows it.
I try but I'm on a iPad and don't have the model link. what does it show?
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Quoting wxchaser97:
Checking in from vacation, it's great! I see 93l is pretty much done for now and hector isn't doing too good.


Check the 12z Euro. There is something very interesting at MDR. But is the first run that model shows it.
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The Atlantic has flat lined
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Quoting Felix2007:


It's not exactly the same, he has capital I's instead of lowercase l's.
Oh wow, still it's the same name. I'm surprised this blog would allow that to happen.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting lovemamatus:
Or, everyone is out looking for an alternative to the SHIPS run, which will undoubtedly show TD 7 in 2 days when it is TS Gordon at 158mph in the gulf. I don't see it beyond a weak Cat 4 (140 mph) at landfall. Im betting on Corpus Christie.The cone is getting smaller.
TS at 158mph!?!? LMAO
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
He has the same identical name as you, how is that even possible?


It's not exactly the same, he has capital I's instead of lowercase l's. I also have an imposter, so you see anything rude or vulgar posted by him, it's not me.
Member Since: July 12, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 383
Quoting wxchaser97:
Checking in from vacation, it's great! I see 93l is pretty much done for now and hector isn't doing too good.
Ernesto > Hector...Btw is it too much to ask for something to track in the Atlantic, I'm getting kind of bored now.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Because he's been in the chat most of this afternoon and is excited his account becomes active tomorrow morning.
He has the same identical name as you, how is that even possible?
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Good evening, everyone.

Had a very windy day here on the islands but it seems to be calming down now.

Just as an aside, I KNOW I saw strange pictures of televisions and a lotto ticket a few minutes ago. I went to "!" them and they're gone. Many thanks to the Admin or whoever it was that did it!

Lindy
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741. txjac
Any chance of that flair up going on over the Yucatan could develop into something in the gulf?
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


How do you know this is going to happen?

Because he's been in the chat most of this afternoon and is excited his account becomes active tomorrow morning.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31563
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just a heads up, my impostor's account is allowed to post on the blog in 12 hours, so....if anything bad happens while I'm at school tomorrow, you guys know it isn't me.
did not know that, thanks for the heads up.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just a heads up, my impostor's account is allowed to post on the blog in 12 hours, so....if anything bad happens while I'm at school tomorrow, you guys know it isn't me.


How do you know this is going to happen?
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Since it's slow...on this day in history...

The Wizard of Oz movie musical premieres in Oconomowoc, Wisconsin


Just a heads up...Do not go riding a bicycle during a tornado warning...

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just a heads up, my impostor's account is allowed to post on the blog in 12 hours, so....if anything bad happens while I'm at school tomorrow, you guys know it isn't me.




You would e mail wounder blog admin and yet him no what's going on so he dos not ban the wrong name
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hello everyone.
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Checking in from vacation, it's great! I see 93l is pretty much done for now and hector isn't doing too good.
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Just a heads up, my impostor's account is allowed to post on the blog in 12 hours, so....if anything bad happens while I'm at school tomorrow, you guys know it isn't me.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31563
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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