Remains of TD 7 kill two in Trinidad; 93L too dry to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:31 PM GMT on August 12, 2012

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The remains of Tropical Depression Seven brought heavy rains to Trinidad on Saturday, unleashing flooding and mudslides that killed two people and left two others missing in Diego Martin. The storm is headed westward at 20 mph across the Caribbean, but high wind shear of 15 - 25 knots should prevent the system from regenerating. None of the reliable models forecasts that TD 7 will regenerate, and the storm should arrive in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-TD 7 a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.


Figure 1. An analysis of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) from 8 am EDT August 12, 2012. Very dry air from the Sahara (yellow and orange colors) surrounds the tropical wave designated 93L in the Central Atlantic. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS and NOAA/Hurricane Research Division.

93L
A large tropical wave(Invest 93L) is located in the Central Atlantic about 700 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show a pronounced spin to the atmosphere at mid levels, but little in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis from the University of Wisconsin shows that 93L is surrounded by a large area of dry air from the Sahara, which has infiltrated into the storm. This dry air will be a significant impediment to development, as the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that mid-levels of the atmosphere will remain very dry during the next four days. None of the reliable computer models develop 93L during the coming five days, and the storm is expected to move west-northwest and then north, recurving well to the east of Bermuda. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model is predicting 93L will develop into a tropical depression in about a week, once the storm recurves and begins heading northeast. At this point, it does not appear 93L will trouble any land areas.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting tropiceddie:
Hello all from Roatan, Honduras.All quiet now but we do get our brushes from tropical storms/hurricanes.Still watching TD7 could still develop into something before it gets here.!!


Howdy. Spent many nice days diving in Roatan, except for those huge B-17 size mosquitos you have down there. It looks like ex-TD7 will remain a tropical wave by the time it gets to Honduras. Some rain and wind but nothing you're not used to. Good thing too, after seeing what Mitch did to the country. :(
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9719
Quoting Jedkins01:


Alrighty, hey if you knew me in person you'd be surprised to know I'm a very humorous person! I'm just not very good at catching it regarding online communication ;)

I legitimately can't really tell unless it's obvious. BTW I wasn't being confrontational either, I just didn't know why you were saying lol.


I know you are a good guy. One of the smartest on here! I got you to laugh one time a while ago.

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Quoting Grothar:


Anytime, Joe. We old people have to stick together. When we've reached the age where people don't know "Who's on first", we know its over.


LOL........indeed!
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Maybe Hector will hold together longer if it heads north in the coastal waters of Baja California which are in the Low to High 70'S.


Nah. Big high pressure system building over the West Coast. If Hector survives, it's out to sea with him.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9719
Quoting caneswatch:
Who's on second?


No, "Whats" on second. You have to keep up if you want to play baseball. :) "I Have No Idea" is next up to bat though.

Man, you can tell things are slow in the tropics...LOL.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9719

Strongest part is South, why? because is on center field...
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824. JLPR2
Dang it! Nature loves to prove me wrong.

Some heavy stuff coming my way.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
Quoting Grothar:


Anytime, Joe. We old people have to stick together. When we've reached the age where people don't know "Who's on first", we know its over.


As long as we don't forget that "I Don't Know" is on third, us old folks will be OK. :)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9719
The recent unpleasantness of a degenerating tropical wave and a promising system entrained with dry air have been two of the oddest turns of events I can remember since I started really tracking tropical weather in 1985, during Hurricane Gloria that September.
On Wednesday and Thursday of last week, I was checking the blog all day. By all appearances, we were primed for multiple systems in the Atlantic Basin, and then, suddenly, we had nothing. As weather fans, we don't like to be all geared up and suddenly everything goes poof. TD 7 and 93L could come back, I think, but only a bit more waiting and time will tell.
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Quoting ylibrach:


Where can you see the 12z euro model? I'm new at this :)



Google Allan Huffman weather models and it will take you to every model you need to track storms
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Quoting ylibrach:


Where can you see the 12z euro model? I'm new at this :)


Link
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Just joshing with you. Sometimes you take things to seriously. Take a break in here and laugh a little.


Alrighty, hey if you knew me in person you'd be surprised to know I'm a very humorous person! I'm just not very good at catching it regarding online communication ;)

I legitimately can't really tell unless it's obvious. BTW I wasn't being confrontational either, I just didn't know why you were saying lol.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Hey Gro, I finally read your Wunder mail,only like a week late!! LOL....Not bad for a slow old man. Thanks for the info.


Anytime, Joe. We old people have to stick together. When we've reached the age where people don't know "Who's on first", we know its over.
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Hey Gro, I finally read your Wunder mail,only like a week late!! LOL....Not bad for a slow old man. Thanks for the info.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Who's on first? What? I'm really not sure I understand your question?


Wait what's wrong with my posts for being long?


Just joshing with you. Sometimes you take things to seriously. Take a break in here and laugh a little.
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Quoting Grothar:


You mean Today?


No, he's the catcher. :)
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Models are still hanging on to some possible development in the gulf

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Quoting bappit:
What's on second.

Main Development Region


Thank You
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Quoting tropiceddie:
Hello all from Roatan, Honduras.All quiet now but we do get our brushes from tropical storms/hurricanes.Still watching TD7 could still develop into something before it gets here.!!


It's always a possibility but from looking at the models,they show it going into C.A. as a open wave.....best to keep a eye on it for sure.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Dumb question I know......but what is MDR?


Main Development Region
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


You write really long posts. Just tell us, who's on first?


Who's on first? What? I'm really not sure I understand your question?


Wait what's wrong with my posts for being long?
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Quoting mcluvincane:
Dang, just check out the 12z euro... if that pans out, that storm could be trouble for the islands and the u.s. later on


Where can you see the 12z euro model? I'm new at this :)
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What's on second.

Main Development Region
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Who's on second?
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Hmmm, well over here typically August is just overall a really wet month. Although the technical average 8.7 inches for August. Ever Since Ive lived here we usually see 10 to 12, September is usually really soggy too, people seem to forget that.


There were showers and thunderstorms all around me today but I didn't get any, oh well. At least there has been a great coverage of showers overall over the general area now. There should be plenty of showers and thunderstorms every day through the foreseeable future which is finally what we should see.


You write really long posts. Just tell us, who's on first?
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Dumb question I know......but what is MDR?
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I thought most of the AUG period rains came AFTER the 15th.... I know it's true here. The first 10 days of Aug are almost dry... the last 10 are almost always rainy... but W coast FL may be different.


Hmmm, well over here typically August is just overall a really wet month. Although the technical average 8.7 inches for August. Ever Since Ive lived here we usually see 10 to 12, September is usually really soggy too, people seem to forget that.


There were showers and thunderstorms all around me today but I didn't get any, oh well. At least there has been a great coverage of showers overall over the general area now. There should be plenty of showers and thunderstorms every day through the foreseeable future which is finally what we should see.
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Maybe Hector will hold together longer if it heads north in the coastal waters of Baja California which are in the Low to High 70'S.
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In case you all don't now what we're talking about...
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3466
Quoting RTLSNK:
Who's on first, I don't know is on third.


You mean Today?
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Hello all from Roatan, Honduras.All quiet now but we do get our brushes from tropical storms/hurricanes.Still watching TD7 could still develop into something before it gets here.!!
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799. JLPR2
Earlier today I said that since Ex-TD7 was already past my longitude I would probably not see any squally weather...

I spoke too soon, or maybe I spoke more than I should. :\

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
Who's on first, I don't know is on third.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Who's on third. Whats on second.


What's on first though, second? Is third on third or second?
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


No, who's on first?


I don't know who's on third.
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Blog is definitely bored
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Who's on third. Whats on second.


I don't know
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Who's on third. What's on second.


No, who's on first?
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3466
791. Skyepony (Mod)
14W is now KAI-TAK.



94W is dead..
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Quoting caneswatch:


Who's on second?


Who's on third. Whats on second.
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Quoting Grothar:
Who's on first? This reads like an Abbott and Costello dialogue.


Who's on second?
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Hope the CMC is correct and takes the remnants of Hector to Sooo Cal...and gives me some more rain.
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Quoting weatherh98:


My friends dad is the head of the nws in lake Charles she never said his name but hers is Patrick so I'm assuming that's his too.


That's cool. I never noticed who writes these.
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First time this year the euro has been excited Bout development in thd mdr,

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785. beell
Quoting txjac:
Any chance of that flair up going on over the Yucatan could develop into something in the gulf?


txjac, and mgm-an opinion.

It's being analyzed as a surface trough-but they could have lost a wave in there somewhere. One that was tracking west at 10-15knots then jumped to 20-25 knots per analysis.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU AUG 09 2012
TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 79W
FROM 13N-22N MOVING W AT 15 KT.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N82W TO 22N79W MOVING W AT 15 KT.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N85W TO 23N81W MOVING W-NW AT 10-15
KT.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W FROM 25N
INTO COASTAL HONDURAS MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
THE WAVE IS MOVING OUT OF AND AWAY FROM THE AREA OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO-TO WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASSOCIATE
ANY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT JUST ACCOMPANIES ONLY THE
TROPICAL WAVE.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N89W TO
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N90W TO N GUATEMALA MOVING WNW
20-25 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND IN THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N E OF 96W.


TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH
AXIS ANALYZED FROM 23N95W TO 18N95W. THE WAVE HAS LOST MOST OF
ITS CHARACTERISTICS AND IT IS ONLY PRODUCING A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST OF VERACRUZ AND COATZACOALCOS. EXPECT THE
WAVE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND INLAND INTO MEXICO WHERE IT WILL
DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

Warm temps over land in the Yucatan along with maybe some sea breeze probably helped.Should continue to the west in the southern BOC with no issues other than rain.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Too bad you spelled impostors wrong, haha.

Night everybody.
Night Im gonna head out too... Im the only on posting anyway
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I would feel sorry for anyone who wanted to impersonate me.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:

Too bad you spelled impostors wrong, haha.

Night everybody.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30245
Dang, just check out the 12z euro... if that pans out, that storm could be trouble for the islands and the u.s. later on
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.