Remains of TD 7 kill two in Trinidad; 93L too dry to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:31 PM GMT on August 12, 2012

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The remains of Tropical Depression Seven brought heavy rains to Trinidad on Saturday, unleashing flooding and mudslides that killed two people and left two others missing in Diego Martin. The storm is headed westward at 20 mph across the Caribbean, but high wind shear of 15 - 25 knots should prevent the system from regenerating. None of the reliable models forecasts that TD 7 will regenerate, and the storm should arrive in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-TD 7 a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.


Figure 1. An analysis of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) from 8 am EDT August 12, 2012. Very dry air from the Sahara (yellow and orange colors) surrounds the tropical wave designated 93L in the Central Atlantic. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS and NOAA/Hurricane Research Division.

93L
A large tropical wave(Invest 93L) is located in the Central Atlantic about 700 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show a pronounced spin to the atmosphere at mid levels, but little in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis from the University of Wisconsin shows that 93L is surrounded by a large area of dry air from the Sahara, which has infiltrated into the storm. This dry air will be a significant impediment to development, as the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that mid-levels of the atmosphere will remain very dry during the next four days. None of the reliable computer models develop 93L during the coming five days, and the storm is expected to move west-northwest and then north, recurving well to the east of Bermuda. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model is predicting 93L will develop into a tropical depression in about a week, once the storm recurves and begins heading northeast. At this point, it does not appear 93L will trouble any land areas.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting HondosGirl:
What a difference a day makes. 65 this morning here in Northwest Florida. Coffee on the porch (without sweating) - Yay!


Lucky you! Here in Louisiana it's 78 degrees already with a heat index of 84 and 90% humidity.
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Good morning all! Supposed to get rain today, hopefully it does and I won't have to stand out in the 100 degree heat to water it myself. *G*
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What a difference a day makes. 65 this morning here in Northwest Florida. Coffee on the porch (without sweating) - Yay!
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878. MahFL
Quoting Jedkins01:


Who's on first? What? I'm really not sure I understand your question?


Wait what's wrong with my posts for being long?


Long posts are a pain in the rear.
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One of the gfs esmemble members
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00z gfs did show a low again trying to develop but gets close to the mexican coastline as it moves north then comes in around 192 hrs as a 1006 mb low.This is still ex td 7.
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Quoting JLPR2:
Interesting, I was expecting SAL to basically eat the new TW but it seems there is a break on it (no new SAL coming off the coast for the moment) and it's moving away from the spin sitting on the coast.

This new TW could actually have a chance.







And yes! This place is ridiculously quiet tonight. School on Monday? :0)


For me, not until the day after labor day :P.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


You were out in my neck of the woods,so to speak. Im 9 miles north of Warner Springs off Highway 79. Have a great view of Palomar Mountain from my porch. San Diego averages like 10-11 inches of rain a year,think they got normal this past year.


When I was a kid and we'd be heading to SD, when we'd make the right turn towards Temecula, would always wonder what was out if you turned left instead! The part from that turn off towards Warner Springs is so nice, all the giant Oaks (I think?) along there. I grew up in Rancho Mirage, so headed SD way a lot. Last time I was out there was mid-90's before I got sick of Ca weather and moved to Seattle (LOL) couldn't believe how big temecula and that whole I15 corrider had gotten! I was a kid in the late 70's early 80's and remember there being a big farm shop in Temecula and basically just farms and big farmhouses. One of the few funnel clouds I ever saw was going through Anza oddly enough on one journey, freaked me out! LOL
Member Since: October 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 842
873. JLPR2
Interesting, I was expecting SAL to basically eat the new TW but it seems there is a break on it (no new SAL coming off the coast for the moment) and it's moving away from the spin sitting on the coast.

This new TW could actually have a chance.







And yes! This place is ridiculously quiet tonight. School on Monday? :0)
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Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


I thought they had had quite a bit of rain this year? Just from comments on FB from old friends as I lived in San Diego for a long time. Once, I remember a big wind storm...and one other time a thunderstorm....and that is all LOL

When I was living back out by Palm Springs, used to love driving round the mountains of E San Diego county. I'd take a different route everytime going between SD and Palm Springs LOL Up through Anza Borrego and the back way To Julian or around the back way of Mt Palomar by Lake Henshaw were my fav routes


You were out in my neck of the woods,so to speak. Im 9 miles north of Warner Springs off Highway 79. Have a great view of Palomar Mountain from my porch. San Diego averages like 10-11 inches of rain a year,think they got normal this past year.
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Deleted
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Vertical instability aloft coming over the GOM and Western Caribbean. Perfect timing with the uptick in the MJO.

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LOL just got back. Was gone for about an hour. Same page still. It gets like that here this time of morning. Usually 5 to 10 third shift regulars.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Man it is literally dead in here just like the atlantic but this wont last very long.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Active times ahead.




Wonder which of those storms are on first :)
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866. JLPR2
Finally my power came back.

Lost power for 2hrs courtesy of a stray band from Ex-TD 7. :\



Around 3 inches fell in 2hrs.
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Quoting prweatherwatcher:
This blog is Dead , we need a storm to track real soon...Io


Well, I was going to post a new storm 200 hours ahead, but I have found that models are also dead....

I didn't like the Who to end the ceremonies, I would have prefered Led Zep.... or the Stones or U2
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Quoting prweatherwatcher:
This blog is Dead , we need a storm to track real soon...Io


Shhhhhh........don't wake the sleeping Giant
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1122
Could be a very interesting weekend to say the least
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exTD07 has left it's old convection behind and is firing anew. Impressive it's re-fired that quickly. For moving as quickly as it is, it's sure putting up an effort.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


True it is. 4 Thunderstorms in the last 4 days out her in the mountains in San Diego County,my first rains since March or April. But still...all that moisture ffunneling in here would be pretty good...maybe even bring them flatlanders some rain in San Diego.


I thought they had had quite a bit of rain this year? Just from comments on FB from old friends as I lived in San Diego for a long time. Once, I remember a big wind storm...and one other time a thunderstorm....and that is all LOL

When I was living back out by Palm Springs, used to love driving round the mountains of E San Diego county. I'd take a different route everytime going between SD and Palm Springs LOL Up through Anza Borrego and the back way To Julian or around the back way of Mt Palomar by Lake Henshaw were my fav routes
Member Since: October 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 842
Quoting PedleyCA:


Jurupa Valley. What used to be Northern Riverside. Basically all of the 92509 zipcode. Been a city for just over a year.



Not too far from me. Im 30 miles SE of Temecula.
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Deleted
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Active times ahead.

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Deleted
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Did ya get any rain Pedley? Whereabouts do you call home?


Jurupa Valley. What used to be Northern Riverside. Basically all of the 92509 zipcode. Been a city for just over a year.

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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I know you are a good guy. One of the smartest on here! I got you to laugh one time a while ago.




thank you!

Great video lol, you made me laugh once again!


good old 3 stooges
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Looks like nada from Hector. I've had a Thunderstorm each of the last 4 days. I guess im getting greedy...........I want more! Was 100 again today and it went to 78 during the storm......so nice and a cold breeze to boot....lol


Got to 101.9 here. Still is 88.6, but starting to cool off. Hope it doesn't take till midnight to get cool enough to open some windows. 79.0 inside with the AC. Glad I have that. Still no rain from any of this monsoonal stuff. Staying
too far to the East. Don't need the humidity either. Have a good night All. Stay Safe. Sleep Well.
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Did ya get any rain Pedley? Whereabouts do you call home?
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Quoting Grothar:
Models are still hanging on to some possible development in the gulf



In that area of the gulf it wouldn't take long for things to spin up!
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Quoting PedleyCA:
How you doing Tonight HHJoe? Is that all we are gonna get out of Hector.


Looks like nada from Hector. I've had a Thunderstorm each of the last 4 days. I guess im getting greedy...........I want more! Was 100 again today and it went to 78 during the storm......so nice and a cold breeze to boot....lol
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Quoting prweatherwatcher:
This blog is Dead , we need a storm to track real soon...Io


No, not dead, just taking a break. Olympics closing ceremony, work or school day tomorrow, some people's fingers are tired from trying to bring ex-TD07 back to life, nothing happening in the MDR or the ITCZ, the Caribbean almost clear except for the much hyped remnants of 07...yeah, I guess it is kind of dead. :)
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JUST UPDATED...included 95E...sorry it says 93E

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Sar 2401 says he not coming to Soo Cal.I was looking at the Canadien model,it showed quite a bit of his moisture and vorticity coming into Soo Ca. He said I should be happy with the rains we got this week....
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


True it is. 4 Thunderstorms in the last 4 days out her in the mountains in San Diego County,my first rains since March or April. But still...all that moisture ffunneling in here would be pretty good...maybe even bring them flatlanders some rain in San Diego.


Sorry to burst your bubble like that. The monsoonal flow will be cut off for most of the area by late Monday, and the high pressure building in looks pretty impressive. Unless Hector suddenly ramps up, no chance of rain for the flatlanders.
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This blog is Dead , we need a storm to track real soon...Io
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Quoting tropiceddie:


yes, i dont think this island would be prepared because there is absolutely no preparation when these storms pass by.


When I was last down there in 2004, there was talk of the Honduran government building some hurricane shelters on Roatan. Anything ever come of that? I suspect I know the answer.:) At least the island has some hills you can get to so you escape the storm surge. I pushed my luck in late October, 1998, and almost got trapped on Blackbird Caye, off Belize. That place was scary with a hurricane coming, especially Mitch. You either got back the 26 miles to the mainland or lashed yourself to the mangroves and prayed a lot.
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Quoting sar2401:


Hey, you had a couple of days of monsoon weather, with thunderstorms and everything. At least it's better than the usual "Low clouds in the morning, clearing to the coast by noon"...ad infinitum. :)


True it is. 4 Thunderstorms in the last 4 days out her in the mountains in San Diego County,my first rains since March or April. But still...all that moisture ffunneling in here would be pretty good...maybe even bring them flatlanders some rain in San Diego.
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How you doing Tonight HHJoe? Is that all we are gonna get out of Hector.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Dang man!! At least let me hope for a few days before ya burst me bubble.......... :)


Hey, you had a couple of days of monsoon weather, with thunderstorms and everything. At least it's better than the usual "Low clouds in the morning, clearing to the coast by noon"...ad infinitum. :)
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We are heading into the heart of hurricane season...so dont have a heavy heart during this pathetic time of tracking nothing!
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Quoting sar2401:


Howdy. Spent many nice days diving in Roatan, except for those huge B-17 size mosquitos you have down there. It looks like ex-TD7 will remain a tropical wave by the time it gets to Honduras. Some rain and wind but nothing you're not used to. Good thing too, after seeing what Mitch did to the country. :(


yes, i dont think this island would be prepared because there is absolutely no preparation when these storms pass by.
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Quoting sar2401:


Nah. Big high pressure system building over the West Coast. If Hector survives, it's out to sea with him.


Dang man!! At least let me hope for a few days before ya burst me bubble.......... :)
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Quoting Felix2007:


Link


Thanks!
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Quoting sar2401:


As long as we don't forget that "I Don't Know" is on third, us old folks will be OK. :)

Hmm... the "Who's on First?" video is popular here in South Korea. Especially the translated version.
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Bands from ex td 7
Significant Weather Advisory in effect



SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING  THROUGH EASTERN PUERTO RICO

AT 1129 PM AST

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EMPLOYEES AND EMERGENCY  MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS HAVE REPORTED A RAPID INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS  THE AREA FROM CULEBRA TO AGUAS BUENAS AND CIDRA. HEAVY DOWN POURS  WITH LIGHTNING AND VERY GUSTY WINDS TO AS MUCH AS 45 MPH ARE  POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA. VERY HEAVY RAINS HAVE ALSO MOVED INTO  NAGUABO AND WILL BE IN LAS PIEDRAS BY 11 PM AST. THESE SHOWERS WILL  MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AND AFFECT CANOVANAS

TRUJILLO ALTO AND SAN  JUAN DURING THE UPCOMING HOUR.
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Quoting etxwx:

I think I'm signing off before ya'll move on to Henny Youngman routines.... ;-)


Take all of Grothar's wives, please.
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Quoting sunlinepr:


On that bottom loop, Is that outfow or shear...it looks like outflow to me,but I leave it to the experts.
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832. etxwx
Quoting sar2401:


No, "Whats" on second. You have to keep up if you want to play baseball. :) "I Have No Idea" is next up to bat though.

Man, you can tell things are slow in the tropics...LOL.

I think I'm signing off before ya'll move on to Henny Youngman routines.... ;-)
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Quoting tropiceddie:
Hello all from Roatan, Honduras.All quiet now but we do get our brushes from tropical storms/hurricanes.Still watching TD7 could still develop into something before it gets here.!!


Howdy. Spent many nice days diving in Roatan, except for those huge B-17 size mosquitos you have down there. It looks like ex-TD7 will remain a tropical wave by the time it gets to Honduras. Some rain and wind but nothing you're not used to. Good thing too, after seeing what Mitch did to the country. :(
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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