Remains of TD 7 kill two in Trinidad; 93L too dry to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:31 PM GMT on August 12, 2012

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The remains of Tropical Depression Seven brought heavy rains to Trinidad on Saturday, unleashing flooding and mudslides that killed two people and left two others missing in Diego Martin. The storm is headed westward at 20 mph across the Caribbean, but high wind shear of 15 - 25 knots should prevent the system from regenerating. None of the reliable models forecasts that TD 7 will regenerate, and the storm should arrive in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-TD 7 a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.


Figure 1. An analysis of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) from 8 am EDT August 12, 2012. Very dry air from the Sahara (yellow and orange colors) surrounds the tropical wave designated 93L in the Central Atlantic. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS and NOAA/Hurricane Research Division.

93L
A large tropical wave(Invest 93L) is located in the Central Atlantic about 700 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show a pronounced spin to the atmosphere at mid levels, but little in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis from the University of Wisconsin shows that 93L is surrounded by a large area of dry air from the Sahara, which has infiltrated into the storm. This dry air will be a significant impediment to development, as the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that mid-levels of the atmosphere will remain very dry during the next four days. None of the reliable computer models develop 93L during the coming five days, and the storm is expected to move west-northwest and then north, recurving well to the east of Bermuda. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model is predicting 93L will develop into a tropical depression in about a week, once the storm recurves and begins heading northeast. At this point, it does not appear 93L will trouble any land areas.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Sorry but I'm not revising my numbers until September if I see that conditions get to unfavorable.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17095
Quoting VR46L:


True but its too early to discount a CV cane yet ...
Not getting into the cool temperatures debate today .. in fact you are brave for bring that up lol


LOL! Don't worry Nea will be on later to say this is still the hottest summer in history.

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A very quiet period in the tropical ATL Carib and Gomex. none of the computer models showing development the next seven days.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Hurricane season peaks on September 10...


I mean't the beggining of the peak period on August 15.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14335
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Am i the only one who doesnt remember much about Charley except that someone said it was making landfall and hearing about the aftermath?
Its sad, almost everything i know about charley was learned years after the fact...
part.of.neighbors.roof.peeled.off
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926. VR46L
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Moisture increases but so does the shear. Very deep troughs now moving across the US infact could be some record lows this week across the mid west and NE US as lows in the 40's and 50's will be common. I friend of mine in western Maryland said it was the coolest up there this past weekend since May. This is very unusual as August is typically the hottest month of the year.


Just look at how cool it is going to get over the coming days. Very impressive and very indicative of El-Nino.



True but its too early to discount a CV cane yet ...
Not getting into the cool temperatures debate today .. in fact you are brave for bring that up lol
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Quoting kshipre1:
thanks for posting this. just wondering, but does the southern and south eastern us experience cooler temps in a weak, moderate or strong el nino?


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Quoting kshipre1:
thanks for posting this. just wondering, but does the southern and south eastern us experience cooler temps in a weak, moderate or strong el nino?


Yes and more precipitation
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Quoting weatherh98:

13th
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
As soon as the MJO helps moisten things up, the East Atlantic is in business. Sea Surface Temperatures are warm, wind shear is low, and SAL is beginning to diminish.
93l took a bit of the sal out
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Quoting weatherh98:

13th
around.then..diffrent.every.yr
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Is kinda eerie to see none of the models develop anything between Africa and Lesser Antilles as the peak of the Atlantic season arrives on the 15th.


Get used to it. People who think we are going to get 14 to 15 named storms this season may want to revise those numbers.

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thanks for posting this. just wondering, but does the southern and south eastern us experience cooler temps in a weak, moderate or strong el nino?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Hurricane season peaks on September 10...

13th
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As soon as the MJO helps moisten things up, the East Atlantic is in business. Sea Surface Temperatures are warm, wind shear is low, and SAL is beginning to diminish.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32278
Highs in the 60's to near 70 across the Mid West later this week. Talk about refreshing and very unusal for Auguat as average highs in many of these locations are around 90 not 65!
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Is kinda eerie to see none of the models develop anything between Africa and Lesser Antilles as the peak of the Atlantic season arrives on the 15th.

Hurricane season peaks on September 10...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32278
Is kinda eerie to see none of the models develop anything between Africa and Lesser Antilles as the peak of the Atlantic season arrives on the 15th.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14335
Quoting VR46L:


I am not so sure..
Water vapour image off Africa looks good





and I admit the central atlantic look dry but it will move west and the moisture levels could increase


Moisture increases but so does the shear. Very deep troughs now moving across the US infact could be some record lows this week across the mid west and NE US as lows in the 40's and 50's will be common. I friend of mine in western Maryland said it was the coolest up there this past weekend since May. This is very unusual as August is typically the hottest month of the year.


Just look at how cool it is going to get over the coming days. Very impressive and very indicative of El-Nino.

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Charley was probably a Category 5 at landfall.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32278
Am i the only one who doesnt remember much about Charley except that someone said it was making landfall and hearing about the aftermath?
Its sad, almost everything i know about charley was learned years after the fact...
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Station 42058
NDBC
Location: 14.923N 74.918W
Date: Mon, 13 Aug 2012 10:50:00 UTC
Winds: NE (50°) at 21.4 kt gusting to 27.2 kt
Significant Wave Height: 6.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ENE (73°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.79 in and steady
Air Temperature: 79.0 F
Dew Point: 74.8 F
Water Temperature: 82.2 F
View Details - View History
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Eight years ago today...



It is you cody...lol
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908. VR46L
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Best post so far over the last several days. Nothing is going to form anytime soon as too much dry air and shear across the Atlantic Basin. The tropics are basically shut down right now. Sure sign that El-Nino is licking into high gear right now. If anything hit the US from here on out it will more than likely come from the Gulf or the Caribbean.



I am not so sure..
Water vapour image off Africa looks good





and I admit the central atlantic look dry but it will move west and the moisture levels could increase
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:


I'd say that's charley judging by small size and landfall
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:


8 years ago today. The most terrifying storm I've ever been thru. I think that was the first time I ever said I wish this would stop already as I was nervous that my appartment complex was going to be blown away as the walls was were pulsating in and out and cars were moving down my complex with nobody in them as the eye of Charley hit Orlando.
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Good Morning. Here is the first part (link below) of the am NCEP Caribbean Desk discussion. Nice synopsis of what is presently going on with the remnants of TD7; still under the influence of the big ULL at 30N-60W and reference to the trade wind surge which we have been discussing recently in terms of how fast (20mph) Ernesto and the T-Wave have been moving in the Eastern and Central Caribbean. Those two features are currently dominating the large scale synoptic environment over the remains.

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
631 AM EDT MON AUG 13 2012

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. A TUTT LOW NEAR 30N 60W ANCHORS A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. A COL OVER HISPANIOLA SEPARATES THIS FEATURE FROM ANOTHER TUTT OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. AT LOW LEVELS...A TUTT INDUCED TROUGH IN THE EASTERLIES EXTENDS NORTH FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO HAITI. THIS SUSTAINS A TRADE WIND SURGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE ALSO FAVORING SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO INTO SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA.



Link


Back to watching the models over the next several days.

Have a Great Day.
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Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
SOI values for 13 Aug 2012 Average for last 30 days -7.6

Average for last 90 days -7.7

Daily contribution to SOI calculation -24.0

Monthly average SOI values May -2.4
June -10.2
July 0.1
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Quoting LargoFl:


Best post so far over the last several days. Nothing is going to form anytime soon as too much dry air and shear across the Atlantic Basin. The tropics are basically shut down right now. Sure sign that El-Nino is kicking into high gear right now. If anything hit the US from here on out it will more than likely come from the Gulf or the Caribbean.

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901. VR46L
Good Morning interesting wave coming off Africa



and there doesnt seem to be dry air on its exit



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Eight years ago today...

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32278
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 13 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...
MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
NORTHWARD TO HISPANIOLA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH.

SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE AFTER THAT
TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14335
Quoting CybrTeddy:



Wonder which of those storms are on first :)


Well Teddy, what a difference a run makes as nothing showed up on the 00z Euro run. That means we keep waiting as the peak of the season arrives.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14335
Good morning folks. Just a reminder that 8 years ago today Hurricane Charley hit Florida as a category 4 storm with pressure of 947 mb. I was without power for 10 days in temps of mid 90's. I'll never forget it
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SPC going with a 5% tornado risk. for now, might go up or down, probably not up...:



...LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
EARLY RAIN AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING FROM IL INTO SERN
MO AND ACROSS WRN KY AND TN MON MORNING...FORCED BY THE LOW LEVEL
JET AND ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. WITH AN ELEVATED MOISTURE SOURCE
BENEATH COOL UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST MARGINAL DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...SOME HAIL IS LIKELY. HEATING IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
INITIAL ACTIVITY...BUT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING E...IT IS
UNCLEAR HOW WIDESPREAD FURTHER DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE.
CONDITIONALLY...ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS...WITH MAINLY A HAIL THREAT. THERE WILL BE VEERED AND
WEAKENING FLOW BEHIND THE LEAD WAVE...WHICH MAY FURTHER DISRUPT LOW
LEVEL WINDS ENOUGH TO MITIGATE ANY TORNADO THREAT.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39273
.........................lets start keeping an eye out for that blob in the BOC,watch colors are starting to turn blue, we'll see what happens over time, I notice that blob off the east coast doesnt look any better today, thats good we dont need an east coast storm going up the coastline huh
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39273
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. The track forecast for Kai-Tak has shifted south... Looks like it may get very close to Hong Kong as a typhoon.



..wow they sure get the BIG ones over there huh
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39273
Good morning. The track forecast for Kai-Tak has shifted south... Looks like it may get very close to Hong Kong as a typhoon.



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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39273
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39273
good morning folks!..looks like another quiet tropical day outside of the rains from X7,which by the way, although Just rain IS causing some damage and a few deaths...well around here by me its a typical hot florida day with a chance of afternoon sea breeze rains..have a Great day everyone
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39273
cent.atl.t.w.breaking.up.into.two
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The CMC Want a TD or TS to go to CA
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6Z GFS 150HR GOM
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Two of the 00Z

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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Active times ahead.



Good morning. Well, way different 00z Euro run from the 12z one as it does not have anything. The waiting game will continue for a while it seems.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14335
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Lucky you! Here in Louisiana it's 78 degrees already with a heat index of 84 and 90% humidity.
We were lucky enough to visit your beautiful state about 10 days ago. I walked a lot my first full day and was surprised to find out when I returned to the hotel that the heat index had taken the temps to 109. It was so beautiful - I had not noticed until I was in the elevator that I was soaked! Lol!
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Quoting HondosGirl:
What a difference a day makes. 65 this morning here in Northwest Florida. Coffee on the porch (without sweating) - Yay!


Lucky you! Here in Louisiana it's 78 degrees already with a heat index of 84 and 90% humidity.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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