Remains of TD 7 kill two in Trinidad; 93L too dry to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:31 PM GMT on August 12, 2012

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The remains of Tropical Depression Seven brought heavy rains to Trinidad on Saturday, unleashing flooding and mudslides that killed two people and left two others missing in Diego Martin. The storm is headed westward at 20 mph across the Caribbean, but high wind shear of 15 - 25 knots should prevent the system from regenerating. None of the reliable models forecasts that TD 7 will regenerate, and the storm should arrive in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-TD 7 a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.


Figure 1. An analysis of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) from 8 am EDT August 12, 2012. Very dry air from the Sahara (yellow and orange colors) surrounds the tropical wave designated 93L in the Central Atlantic. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS and NOAA/Hurricane Research Division.

93L
A large tropical wave(Invest 93L) is located in the Central Atlantic about 700 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show a pronounced spin to the atmosphere at mid levels, but little in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis from the University of Wisconsin shows that 93L is surrounded by a large area of dry air from the Sahara, which has infiltrated into the storm. This dry air will be a significant impediment to development, as the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that mid-levels of the atmosphere will remain very dry during the next four days. None of the reliable computer models develop 93L during the coming five days, and the storm is expected to move west-northwest and then north, recurving well to the east of Bermuda. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model is predicting 93L will develop into a tropical depression in about a week, once the storm recurves and begins heading northeast. At this point, it does not appear 93L will trouble any land areas.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Grothar:


Thanks for the clarification. It may be useful this season.


I have no doubt that it will. :)
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I'm not really expecting much before it passes JA, so that means, what, Thursday?



Sooner than that I would think at the present forward speed. More like late Monday night/ early Tuesday. At 20 knots it is covering some liquid real estate fairly quickly. Jamaica is about 11 degrees down the road or 660 miles. 20 knots is 23 mph.

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Quoting kmanislander:
925 mb vort now vertically aligned with the surface feature. Not bad for the environment it is in.


hmm and is also in line with vort at 850mb and 700mb
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Quoting muddertracker:


Only if it is used as a proper noun. Example:

The Twit got on my last nerve!

You twit! (no capitalization needed)



Thanks for the clarification. It may be useful this season.
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Quoting Grothar:


Should the word twit always capitalized? LOL


Only if it is used as a proper noun.

Example:

The Twit got on my last nerve!

You twit! (no capitalization needed)

j/k lol!
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How did the GFS miss this?? ;-)
Weird weather rains seaweed over Gloucestershire village
From The Telegraph Aug 12,2012
Bemused residents in a quiet suburban street thought there was something fishy about the weather when it literally started raining seaweed. They were stunned to find their homes, gardens and cars littered with the smelly marine algae after a stormy weather spout swept up the debris from a beach 20 miles away.

Weather experts believe the seaweed was picked up from Clevedon Beach in North Somerset by a twister during freak weather conditions on the coast. It was then carried through the air - before being deposited on the quiet street in Berkeley, near Cheltenham, Glos.

Stunned engineer Dr Richard Overton, 55, and his wife Kay, collected an entire bucket full of the green slime from their front garden.

He said: "I looked out of the window after a very big storm finished and to my amazement there were lots of flakes of seaweed scattered over the garden.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I'm not really expecting much before it passes JA, so that means, what, Thursday?



so Baha as we are in a non-argueing state so what happens if it start up before Jamaica like S of Dom. Rep. and Haiti like 70W-73W right so no saying it won't happen lets just say it does then what?
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Quoting caneswatch:


It's after LOL!


Should the word twit always capitalized? LOL
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925 mb vort now vertically aligned with the surface feature. Not bad for the environment it is in.

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Quoting Grothar:


Please place a period between her and LOL!


It's after LOL!
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Quoting kmanislander:


Well, it's back to watch and wait with ex 7.
I'm not really expecting much before it passes JA, so that means, what, Thursday?

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Quoting pottery:

Since we are having a Grammar and Spelling review, you should have said "to seem TOO impolite" there.

Just saying....

:)::)

Good to see Trinidad featuring on the Blog, but unfortunately for all the wrong reasons.

As DDR said in an earlier post,(#26) the problem with flooding in these valleys has a lot to do with bad building/development practises on the steep hillsides.

Unfortunately again, the Capital city Port-of-Spain, is surrounded by the sea and mountains.
There is nowhere for the city to spread out to, except the hillsides.
Better planning and more effective monitoring of the development of the hills is needed, but Greed is a real mover and shaker.


I see you use the British spelling for practice.
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Quoting kmanislander:


I don't recall any arguing, at least not from me.


no no Kman we are cool but you remember from earler with the other guys
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I only correct the grammar of those who correct the grammar of others. :) And that's only when the corrector needs correcting themselves. And, as a rule, I never correct Grothar. He's just too dang old, respect him too much to do that. :)
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

atleast we all agreed to stop argueing and watch and wait


I don't recall any arguing, at least not from me.
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Good rain coming today


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Quoting LargoFl:


what I guess I was the only one to expect see purple in the E carib hmm
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4th consecutive run the GFS shows a system in the Gulf.
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Quoting Grothar:


There should have been an exclamation point after the word better, since it is the imperative sentence. However, if one does not want to seem to impolite, the sentence may end in a period in most cases.

Since we are having a Grammar and Spelling review, you should have said "to seem TOO impolite" there.

Just saying....

:)::)

Good to see Trinidad featuring on the Blog, but unfortunately for all the wrong reasons.

As DDR said in an earlier post,(#26) the problem with flooding in these valleys has a lot to do with bad building/development practises on the steep hillsides.

Unfortunately again, the Capital city Port-of-Spain, is surrounded by the sea and mountains.
There is nowhere for the city to spread out to, except the hillsides.
Better planning and more effective monitoring of the development of the hills is needed, but Greed is a real mover and shaker.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Well, it's back to watch and wait with ex 7.

atleast we all agreed to stop argueing and watch and wait
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12z GFS 240 hrs.

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From NYT: The Search for Energy Takes a Turn Underwater
Excerpt: EASTPORT, Me. — The fearsome tides that sweep out from the easternmost shores of the United States have for more than 80 years teased engineers and presidents like Franklin D. Roosevelt, who have dreamed of harnessing their force to make electricity. And next week, a device that looks a bit like an eggbeater turned sideways will be lowered into the water here to catch the energy of the rushing water, spinning a generator that, come September, is scheduled to begin sending power to the grid.

A little more about this subject here: The Physics of Tidal Energy
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Quoting stormpetrol:
I think exTD7 is well on the road to recovery!

I think so too

Quoting CybrTeddy:


At least Ernesto's circulation is closed.

I think EX-TD7 has or or is working one having one

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Quoting bluesydeacon:
When communicating through the written word, commas and periods are essential. At the very least, please try to recognize individual thoughts and attempt to distinguish them with a period. Also, and just as important, there are a few key words that must be spelled correctly: To and Too. There, Their and They're. Then and Than. Please do better.


In the first sentence, while a comma is okay, it is not necessary in that instance. Capitalizing to, too, there, their, and they're was incorrect also. Technology is taking away proper grammar skills from kids in America. Many schools are no longer even teaching cursive handwriting. Educational standards in America have tanked. I'm just happy when a kid can find the state he/she lives in on a map. :) Lots of sharp young men and women here though.
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well looks like THIS week is all Local weather,which is ok by me,gee the carolina's still getting it today.....................BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1110 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN CLEVELAND COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 200 AM EDT

* AT 1108 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA. RECENT RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES
HAVE OCCURRED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF SHELBY.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
SHELBY...BOILING SPRINGS NC...EARL AND KINGS MOUNTAIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. DO
NOT ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO
ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN
WATER BEGINS RISING.

TO REPORT HIGH WATER...FLOODING...MUDSLIDES...LANDSLIDES OR OTHER
SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH OUR AUTOMATED REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL OUR TOLL
FREE NUMBER... 1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.



LAT...LON 3517 8133 3516 8134 3518 8176 3520 8177
3536 8170 3533 8138 3526 8134



JPT
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Quoting Tribucanes:
Wow, going to be a slow blog day today. We've all seen seasons like this. Just the lull before the true heart of the season explodes. The good Doc has been giving some hints in his recent posts that he many not agree with the 15 plus storm assessment by the NHC. Certainly been a 30 day period in the Atlantic and Caribbean where conditions have been very unfavorable. I respect Dr. Masters for not making a number of storms projection. Nothing but an educated guess, even by the pros. Probably a generation or two away before the understanding of all the dynamics will make it possible to make an accurate projection preseason.


hows today feeling t-canes? lol. Yeah I think things are gonna ramp up the latter half of this month!
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Whoa... only 50 posts in the last hour???

Talk about rural blog.... lol

Afternoon all... just got in.



Well, it's back to watch and wait with ex 7.
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Quoting caneswatch:


You see, my ex never used commas, it was so much harder to communicate with her LOL


Please place a period between her and LOL!
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Whoa... only 50 posts in the last hour???

Talk about rural blog.... lol

Afternoon all... just got in.

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Quoting stormpetrol:


Big improvement from this morning.


I see you like that link :-)
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Quoting Grothar:


There should have been an exclamation point after the word better, since it is the imperative sentence. However, if one does not want to seem to impolite, the sentence may end in a period in most cases.


You see, my ex never used commas, it was so much harder to communicate with her LOL
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Big improvement from this morning.
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Quoting bluesydeacon:
When communicating through the written word, commas and periods are essential. At the very least, please try to recognize individual thoughts and attempt to distinguish them with a period. Also, and just as important, there are a few key words that must be spelled correctly: To and Too. There, Their and They're. Then and Than. Please do better.


Agree, but I'm not terribly bothered...so long as the blog doesn't get filled up with text type! So many people on my Facebook type in it ALL the time. But is definitely annoying if someone's accessing the blog by a phone to type properly.

sunlinepr - love that Sahara image! Funny, I thought they had that factored in long ago, didn't realise is was fairly recent.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Warm core all the way:



And that's the cool part. A fully tropical cyclone has a shot at affecting the Azore Islands in a week.

Not fully tropical if it is assymetric.
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Quoting bluesydeacon:
When communicating through the written word, commas and periods are essential. At the very least, please try to recognize individual thoughts and attempt to distinguish them with a period. Also, and just as important, there are a few key words that must be spelled correctly: To and Too. There, Their and They're. Then and Than. Please do better.


There should have been an exclamation point after the word better, since it is the imperative sentence. However, if one does not want to seem too impolite, the sentence may end in a period in most cases.
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Y'all might find this interesting.

From FSU: "Therapy for the cyclone with an identity crisis ..."
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Quoting stormpetrol:


Good Morning, maybe I got a little of #7, but I think those are same coordinates I gave a few hours ago :)


Yes they are but you may have been too far West and N at that time :-). You can see how the loop moves West in tandem with the center of the low which is fairly well defined. It would appear to be moving W to WNW.

Shear is still relatively high through 70W and the low shear beyond that point is the base of a TUTT which is not good for development as lows do not do all that well underneath an upper level trough.

If you look at the map below you will see that that winds around the low shear of 5 to 10 knots come down from the N and sweep around the base of the trough then back to the NE, the classic signature of a TUTT in the central Caribbean and the opposite of the clockwise flow around a high which is what Ex 7 needs .

I am not saying that regeneration cannot happen but underneath a TUTT is not the best environment for a tropical low.

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12z GFS 156 hours:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7613
Be back later !!
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Wow, going to be a slow blog day today. We've all seen seasons like this. Just the lull before the true heart of the season explodes. The good Doc has been giving some hints in his recent posts that he many not agree with the 15 plus storm assessment by the NHC. Certainly been a 30 day period in the Atlantic and Caribbean where conditions have been very unfavorable. I respect Dr. Masters for not making a number of storms projection. Nothing but an educated guess, even by the pros. Probably a generation or two away before the understanding of all the dynamics will make it possible to make an accurate projection preseason.
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PR radar Link
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Hector's not doing so well..



At least Ernesto's circulation is closed.
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I think exTD7 is well on the road to recovery!
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Quoting kmanislander:
Run this loop and zoom in. Low now at 16 N and 66 W
Pressure at buoy 42059 is 1011.5 mbs and falling.

Ramsdis 1 KM vis loop


Good Morning, maybe I got a little ahead of #7, but I think those are same coordinates I gave a few hours ago :)
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Hector's not doing so well..

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31462
from last blog

ok noting change in conditions 15Z

shear map came out shear still weakening that lip of higher shear is geting thiner the 30kt are now dissipearing and continues to move WNW-NW
5-10kt starting to build more in the E caribbean shear tend. is also droping

vort at 850mb still good
vort at 700mb still good
vort at 500mb still need working on

lower convergence continues to build

steering continues to show W ward movement speed are a bit slower

ok end of update with conditions for 15Z

(this is all I'll be posting for w while this type stuff
no it wrong or this or that just what you see amd maybe some small comments on what I see
other than that mothing else)


new blog
Also adding

keep eye on bouy Station 42059 located 15.054 N 67.472 W (15°3'14" N 67°28'19" W)

Wind Direction (WDIR):

NE ( 40 deg true )

Wind Speed (WSPD):

15.5 kts

Wind Gust (GST):

19.4 kts

Wave Height (WVHT):

6.6 ft

Dominant Wave Period (DPD):

7 sec

Average Period (APD):

5.0 sec

Atmospheric Pressure (PRES):

29.87 in

Pressure Tendency (PTDY):

-0.03 in ( Falling )

Air Temperature (ATMP):

82.9 °F

Water Temperature (WTMP):

83.3 °F

Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M):

15.5 kts

Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M):

17.5 kts
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Run this loop and zoom in. Low now at 16 N and 66 W
Pressure at buoy 42059 is 1011.5 mbs and falling.

Ramsdis 1 KM vis loop
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Quoting scott39:
Why such a spread between the BOC or GOM? A front?


Well i noticed on the GFS runs pressures are consistantly trying to lower in the BOC!! TD7's energy could be enough to spark develepment!! Also the frontal boundary currently pushing into the GOM from the north could be cut off and if TD7 propagates that far north then the development could very well be in the central GOM! I think the GFS is trying to tell us that conditions are favorable in the GOM in a week and that the MJO is definitely returning! Im not focusing on exact location of development, rather that development of some kind is likely to occur!!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.