Remains of TD 7 kill two in Trinidad; 93L too dry to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:31 PM GMT on August 12, 2012

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The remains of Tropical Depression Seven brought heavy rains to Trinidad on Saturday, unleashing flooding and mudslides that killed two people and left two others missing in Diego Martin. The storm is headed westward at 20 mph across the Caribbean, but high wind shear of 15 - 25 knots should prevent the system from regenerating. None of the reliable models forecasts that TD 7 will regenerate, and the storm should arrive in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-TD 7 a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.


Figure 1. An analysis of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) from 8 am EDT August 12, 2012. Very dry air from the Sahara (yellow and orange colors) surrounds the tropical wave designated 93L in the Central Atlantic. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS and NOAA/Hurricane Research Division.

93L
A large tropical wave(Invest 93L) is located in the Central Atlantic about 700 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show a pronounced spin to the atmosphere at mid levels, but little in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis from the University of Wisconsin shows that 93L is surrounded by a large area of dry air from the Sahara, which has infiltrated into the storm. This dry air will be a significant impediment to development, as the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that mid-levels of the atmosphere will remain very dry during the next four days. None of the reliable computer models develop 93L during the coming five days, and the storm is expected to move west-northwest and then north, recurving well to the east of Bermuda. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model is predicting 93L will develop into a tropical depression in about a week, once the storm recurves and begins heading northeast. At this point, it does not appear 93L will trouble any land areas.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


a little spot on the sun today


Getting cool yet Keeper?
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Quoting jeffs713:


Gotcha. I was about to ask what they were drinking, because it must be some incredible booze to make someone *not* want a cool front in SE TX.
Last week it has averaged about 105 here for a high and only 1 day in the past 29 have I seen clouds, they are say it may drop to 99 here by end of this week, that is pretty cool for South Central Texas in August, I will take it.
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Quoting hydrus:
Yes.. I lived about 1500 ft from that hospital. It was bad.
I can believe that.There are photos that I saw of the hoods of cars being pilled back.Really stunning images to see.It's amazing the death toll was low in Charlie.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17811


a little spot on the sun today
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all so it is not a EL nino year yet has it is still Unofficial EL nino once they call it EL nino then it becomes real
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Quoting jeffs713:


Gotcha. I was about to ask what they were drinking, because it must be some incredible booze to make someone *not* want a cool front in SE TX.


Lol. No I'm sure they would be thrilled about that. I would be. :)
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Eight years ago today...

Does not feel like 8 years.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



guys get it right for once if it hits Bermuda dead on on the way out too sea it is not a fish storm



Thanks Taz for the clarification.
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Quoting jeffs713:

Now THAT is a trough.

And who fast-forwarded us to the end of September?
Good morning all. Just checking in and I see we really have very little threats south of us. I can't by pass your comment even though I have not read back on this blog yet. I mentioned last week that I saw the first signs of swallows here in the Keys which means the birds are migrating north again early. This foretells an early winter. Though we had the same last year it wasn't much of a winter LOL. I think this year will be different.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Again folks the only way the US will get hit from here on out is if a CV storm can sneak into the Caribbean and then recurve up toward the Gulf because anything that goes north of the islands will likely be fish bound.



guys get it right for once if it hits Bermuda dead on on the way out too sea it is not a fish storm
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Quoting kshipre1:
if the troughs get more persistent I guess our tropical system threat will derive more from the gulf and/or caribbean. Florida should be aware of this as troughs could only pull storms north. not saying no one else should be alert but more so from western atlantic, gom and caribbean storms.


Let's hope the troughs are strong enough to cool the gulf waters down too. I could live with an early autumn. Or any autumn at all. :)
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Quoting jeffs713:


Gotcha. I was about to ask what they were drinking, because it must be some incredible booze to make someone *not* want a cool front in SE TX.


I may a take a trip up north later this week as the heat and humidity here in FL has been ridulous for many months already. Very pleased to see El-Nino this year.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


I meant they didn't seem too enthused that it would cool down. At least that's what I got out of the front keeps stalling to our north. And I'm still asleep. :p


Gotcha. I was about to ask what they were drinking, because it must be some incredible booze to make someone *not* want a cool front in SE TX.
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Quoting kshipre1:
if the troughs get more persistent I guess our tropical system threat will derive more from the gulf and/or caribbean. Florida should be aware of this as troughs could only pull storms north. not saying no one else should be alert but more so from western atlantic, gom and caribbean storms.


Exactly! Great post.
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Again folks the only way the US will get hit from here on out is if a CV storm can sneak into the Caribbean and then recurve up toward the Gulf because anything that goes north of the islands will likely be fish bound.
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if the troughs get more persistent I guess our tropical system threat will derive more from the gulf and/or caribbean. Florida should be aware of this as troughs could only pull storms north. not saying no one else should be alert but more so from western atlantic, gom and caribbean storms.
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Quoting jeffs713:

Why would we not be thrilled about a cool down? It is August in Texas. Even low 90s are a welcome relief.


I meant they didn't seem too enthused that it would cool down. At least that's what I got out of the front keeps stalling to our north. And I'm still asleep. :p
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I think your underestimating the season...


No I'm not just stating the facts.

Nino areas 3, 3.4, and 4 have really warmed up over the last week. Very indicative of a strengthening El-Nino and as we head into September these troughs will only get stronger.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Charley was probably a Category 5 at landfall.

I gas up there regularly. The hotel that was a quarter mile south of this Race Trac was completely wiped of the face of the Earth. The huge slab is still there. If you add in Charleys foreward movement to the sustained wind speed, it could be considered a 5.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Locals not so thrilled about a cool down but may have storms today.

SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE INTO THE ARKLATEX THIS
MORNING WHERE IT WILL AGAIN STALL AND NOT PUSH ANY FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
THE WARM AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DUE TO
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERTORMS MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA.

LONG TERM...RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP BY FRIDAY AS THE EURO SHOW A
BROAD MID LATITUDE TROF PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION
DOMINATED BY MOIST TROPICAL AIR OFF THE CARROBEAN. AS WITH THE
MOST RECENT FRONT, THIS ONE STALLS AS WELL AND RETREATS BACK NORTH
THIS WEEKEND WITH THE BERMUDA RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE EAST.

DID ADD SOME MENTION OF POPS TO THE GOING FCST WHICH HAD NONE
SINCE THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO FIRE OFF AT LEAST
AIRMASS TYPE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY NEXT WEEK A BETTER
CHANCE FOR RAIN AS ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF DIGGING TROFS PUSHES THE
FRONT BACK INTO OUR AREA.

Why would we not be thrilled about a cool down? It is August in Texas. Even low 90s are a welcome relief.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Get used to it. People who think we are going to get 14 to 15 named storms this season may want to revise those numbers.


I think your underestimating the season...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32824
yep, you are right. I remember some characteristics of the 2004 season are present in this season. most notably an upcoming el nino with periods of strong high pressure potentially driving storms towards the SE conus.
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Locals not so thrilled about a cool down but may have storms today.

SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE INTO THE ARKLATEX THIS
MORNING WHERE IT WILL AGAIN STALL AND NOT PUSH ANY FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
THE WARM AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DUE TO
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERTORMS MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA.

LONG TERM...RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP BY FRIDAY AS THE EURO SHOW A
BROAD MID LATITUDE TROF PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION
DOMINATED BY MOIST TROPICAL AIR OFF THE CARROBEAN. AS WITH THE
MOST RECENT FRONT, THIS ONE STALLS AS WELL AND RETREATS BACK NORTH
THIS WEEKEND WITH THE BERMUDA RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE EAST.

DID ADD SOME MENTION OF POPS TO THE GOING FCST WHICH HAD NONE
SINCE THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO FIRE OFF AT LEAST
AIRMASS TYPE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY NEXT WEEK A BETTER
CHANCE FOR RAIN AS ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF DIGGING TROFS PUSHES THE
FRONT BACK INTO OUR AREA.
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Quoting weatherh98:

13th
3rd..jk
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some.kind.of.vortex.present.s.carib..look.for.a.sta ll.then.transform.into.a.low.level.trough
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Quoting VR46L:
Hmmm ex td7 looks good in rainbow



but heading into dry air!!!


It already is lol...Its not like it hasn't done with it!
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Quoting mikatnight:


"It's poetry in motion
She turned her tender eyes to me
As deep as any ocean
As sweet as any harmony
Mmm - but she blinded me with science
"She blinded me with science!"
And failed me in biology..."
"Good heavens Miss Sakamoto - you're beautiful!"
I -
I don't believe it!
There she goes again!
She's tidied up, and I can't find anything!
All my tubes and wires
And careful notes
And antiquated notions
yeah buddy..One of my faves from back in the day.
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954. VR46L
Hmmm ex td7 looks good in rainbow



but heading into dry air!!!

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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:





Now THAT is a trough.

And who fast-forwarded us to the end of September?
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Quoting washingtonian115:
That's a huge trough for August.Someone is going to have a bad winter.Nature needs to find a way to balance it's self out one way or another.

TWA13 Charlie was a strong cat 4 but had gust up to cat 5 status.A hospital unofficially recorded a gust of 175mph in Charlotte Harbor Florida.
Yes.. I lived about 1500 ft from that hospital. It was bad.
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Quoting STXHurricanes2012:
I would recheck that there's still a chance at some boc developement this weekend maybe! GFS still hints at a low pressure down there.So I wouldn't say no tropical development yet.


The only mention I could find of it this morning was from Houston. We'll see what happens. :)

IN ADDITION AN OPEN WAVE (POSSIBLY REMNANTS
OF TD7) WILL TRACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF PUSHING RICHER MOISTURE
UP INTO SETX LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. COOLING FROM THE CLOUD
COVER AND RETREAT OF RIDGING WESTWARD THIS COMING WEEKEND SHOULD
BRING SOME RELIEF FROM HIGHS IN THE MID- UPPER 90S DURING MID WEEK
TIME FRAME.
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That's a huge trough for August.Someone is going to have a bad winter.Nature needs to find a way to balance it's self out one way or another.

TWA13 Charlie was a strong cat 4 but had gust up to cat 5 status.A hospital unofficially recorded a gust of 175mph in Charlotte Harbor Florida.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17811
Athens, GA set a record low of 60F on Saturday night/Sunday morning besting the old record low of 61F
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Good morning. A bit drippy here as usual.



Fair

77°F

25°C

Humidity100%
Wind SpeedCalm
Barometer30.02 in
Dewpoint77°F (25°C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Heat Index78°F (26°C)
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thanks
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thanks
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12z Best track for Ex TD7.

AL, 07, 2012081312, , BEST, 0, 145N, 749W, 30, 1008, WV
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AL, 07, 2012081312, , BEST, 0, 145N, 749W, 30, 1008, WV,
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Quoting weatherh98:


Pull a chart out of thin air proving its the hottest ever for the 20th consecutive year.... Who knows


lol, im not worried
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


LOL! Don't worry Nea will be on later to say this is still the hottest summer in history.



Well it was.....until now...

Quoting VR46L:


True but its too early to discount a CV cane yet ...
Not getting into the cool temperatures debate today .. in fact you are brave for bring that up lol



nah its not brave, he is just telling the truth....
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Quoting stoormfury:
The EURO 12Z yesterday should a hugh system east of thw windwards on the 27th august. This morning's euro 00z showed nothing. waiting to see what the 12zhrs brings today


That means one word (Inconsistency) The models not being consistent as the most active part of the season is upon us is a bad sign. Let's see if they unite in next runs.
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One thing that is looking pretty certain as we start the climb towards the peak is that the relative position of the A-B high (and the concept of it "setting" for the August-September period) is in an "unfavorable" position which would generally steer any strong CV waves towards the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean. Given that current position, it is a good thing that things are quiet in the Central Atlantic and that SAL also dominates regardless of the other favorable factors. All it takes is one strong CV wave to develop between now and the end of September to take a long-track system into the Caribbean. Now we just wait and hope for the best.

A-B High:

Link
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I would recheck that there's still a chance at some boc developement this weekend maybe! GFS still hints at a low pressure down there.So I wouldn't say no tropical development yet.
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Quoting weatherh98:


Pull a chart out of thin air proving its the hottest ever for the 20th consecutive year.... Who knows


"It's poetry in motion
She turned her tender eyes to me
As deep as any ocean
As sweet as any harmony
Mmm - but she blinded me with science
"She blinded me with science!"
And failed me in biology..."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The EURO 12Z yesterday should a hugh system east of thw windwards on the 27th august. This morning's euro 00z showed nothing. waiting to see what the 12zhrs brings today
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Quoting tramp96:


That was the 12z run. The 00z had nothing.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


LOL! Don't worry Nea will be on later to say this is still the hottest summer in history.



Pull a chart out of thin air proving its the hottest ever for the 20th consecutive year.... Who knows
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New weather satellites to boost hurricane forecasts

By Ken Kaye , Staff Writer

Fri Aug 10 2012 4:51 PM

In the not-too distant future, you should have a much better idea of just how strong an approaching hurricane might be – as well as whether you can expect to see wildfires, volcanic activity or routine rain showers in your vicinity.

This is courtesy of GOES-R, a super sophisticated weather satellite that should provide the National Hurricane Center and other U.S. weather agencies a major forecasting boost by 2016.

Hovering 22,000 miles above Earth, it will be armed with a camera powerful enough to capture a hurricane's core in intricate detail or the total amount of lightning that zapped the United States on any given day.

"If you sum it all up, it's going to provide 30 times more data than what we're getting from current satellites," said senior hurricane specialist Jack Beven.

GOES-R will be the first of four satellites to be launched into space at various intervals over the next 13 years, all designed to collect a barrage of atmospheric information. With the ability to transmit images with twice the detail and five times faster than current weather satellites, it is expected to most help tropical predictions.

Currently, the hurricane center receives a satellite image of a storm once every 15 to 30 minutes, and the picture can zoom in to within .6 of a mile.

With the GOES-R, the hurricane center will be able to receive rapid-fire images every 30 seconds and zoom in to within .3 of a mile, Beven said.

"Being able to see a hurricane on that kind of time scale will certainly give us more information and help us do a better job of forecasting," he said.

Rest of Story
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Sorry but I'm not revising my numbers until September if I see that conditions get to unfavorable.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17811

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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