Remains of TD 7 kill two in Trinidad; 93L too dry to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:31 PM GMT on August 12, 2012

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The remains of Tropical Depression Seven brought heavy rains to Trinidad on Saturday, unleashing flooding and mudslides that killed two people and left two others missing in Diego Martin. The storm is headed westward at 20 mph across the Caribbean, but high wind shear of 15 - 25 knots should prevent the system from regenerating. None of the reliable models forecasts that TD 7 will regenerate, and the storm should arrive in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-TD 7 a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.


Figure 1. An analysis of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) from 8 am EDT August 12, 2012. Very dry air from the Sahara (yellow and orange colors) surrounds the tropical wave designated 93L in the Central Atlantic. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS and NOAA/Hurricane Research Division.

93L
A large tropical wave(Invest 93L) is located in the Central Atlantic about 700 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show a pronounced spin to the atmosphere at mid levels, but little in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis from the University of Wisconsin shows that 93L is surrounded by a large area of dry air from the Sahara, which has infiltrated into the storm. This dry air will be a significant impediment to development, as the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that mid-levels of the atmosphere will remain very dry during the next four days. None of the reliable computer models develop 93L during the coming five days, and the storm is expected to move west-northwest and then north, recurving well to the east of Bermuda. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model is predicting 93L will develop into a tropical depression in about a week, once the storm recurves and begins heading northeast. At this point, it does not appear 93L will trouble any land areas.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting lovemamatus:
Whose got the 2pm? Robbie (Berg) or the great Lixion Avila?

Get ready for orange!!!!!

10% on 93L, 10% on Ex Tropical Depression Seven, and 10% on a disturbance in the East Pacific.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32024
Quoting lovemamatus:
Whose got the 2pm? Robbie (Berg) or the great Lixion Avila?

Get ready for orange!!!!!

for what 93L or EX-TD7
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Quoting caneswatch:


Quiet down already, troll.


While we're on the subject of grammar, CANTBELIEVEIT's posts probably make Grothar scream. :)

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Thanks 4 the reminder, pat... and I'd like to say they all work better with some kind of punctuation.... lol

Right... I gotta run for a while ... will check in later...
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Ya lets give up cursive. We're already giving up the ability to have a real one on one conversation. Sure can text, these kids though, that should make up for it. In an age of anti-intellectualism cursive is only one of many vitals to go the way of the dinosaur. In fact a kid here only a few days ago said if he wanted to learn something he'd just look it up on his smart phone. As the East rises and the West declines, we can look directly to technology and the ever increasing love of self in America and the West in general as the culprit. We are in the process of giving up most of what made us great in America. Family, morals, strong education, and many others are on the decline and I mean quickly.
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wunderground is a Language friendly site and is available in all languages.


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Quoting WxGeekVA:
I for one at least try to use correct grammar online, because otherwise I feel stupid. If you can be whatever you want online, why choose to be illiterate?
I keep thinking about the fact that nothing u type gets thrown away... I really don't want my "online legacy" [lol @ the hubris of this] to be unintelligible...
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This is the East Pacific's "Jose":

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32024
Quoting kmanislander:


Unfortunately, the advent of texting is slowly but surely destroying the English language. I have even seen emails coming in now using text style abbreviations. Not a good sign for the young who are soon to graduate etc..
It's a constant struggle in the workplace. Mind you, English, with all its thousands of words, seems to have this tendency towards minimalism that the texting era is highlighting. I received an email the other day with the expression "bruh" in it... lol

I've also been noticing the "creep" in the NWS discussion posts...

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Just bcuz we txt like this...

Does not mean we do not know correct grammar. :)
Agreed, but when you only practice one language, one's facility with others can be decreased. I also think texting language has become somewhat of a jargon, almost an argot, for its users, similar to the various abbreviations we use here in the blog as a matter of course. After a while it gets harder to remember that not everybody you meet will understand what WX and LLC and GoM and ATL and "invest" mean...

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Quoting CANTBELIEVEIT:
My forcast for the next 8 weeks is the same as i predicted since june 1st not much gonna happen in the tropics again just a few fish storms and tiny fizzle out storms


Shocker!... You have 28 comments and they all say the same thing. The prophet has spoken.
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Quoting cyclonekid:
Yo tampoco. ;) Ven a "Weather Chat"


No puedo ahora mismo.
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Quoting Grothar:
English is a very difficult language. One of the most difficult. I don't always think in English.
Yo tampoco. ;) Ven a "Weather Chat"
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1011 mbs at buoy 42059 and falling.

It should bottom out in the next hour or so as ex 7 should pass right over or very close to that location.

Back in a while
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Quoting Grothar:
English is a very difficult language. One of the most difficult. I don't always think in English.


But when I do, I always think with commas and periods. :P
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Quoting CANTBELIEVEIT:
My forcast for the next 8 weeks is the same as i predicted since june 1st not much gonna happen in the tropics again just a few fish storms and tiny fizzle out storms


Quiet down already, troll.
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I for one at least try to use correct grammar online, because otherwise I feel stupid. If you can be whatever you want online, why choose to be illiterate?
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
One day in the future, the kids like me between 10-20 years old now will look back and say they witnessed the beginning of the real digital age, where the ways of the past died right in front of our very eyes. This is the beginning of the period of accelerating technological and social change that will last for the remainder of human existence.
If you teach your kids some of the old ways their is still hope.Their is so much technology I can't even keep up with the latest.
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English is a very difficult language. One of the most difficult. I don't always think in English.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Kids r still expected to handwrite most stuff here... What about school exams... no writing required?

It's okay... I say do your best. Can't do better than that..


Nope. All standardized testing is online, from grade 2 onward. Even non-standardized testing is on the computer a lot now.
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One day in the future, the kids like me between 10-20 years old now will look back and say they witnessed the beginning of the real digital age, where the ways of the past died right in front of our very eyes. This is the beginning of the period of accelerating technological and social change that will last for the remainder of human existence.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Kids r still expected to handwrite most stuff here... What about school exams... no writing required?

It's okay... I say do your best. Can't do better than that..
Baha they're having kids take test more now online then say 5 years ago :(.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Just bcuz we txt like this...

Does not mean we do not know correct grammar. :)


I agree entirely but it is becoming a problem, I can tell you. BBM has not helped either.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Not used to these "speed waves" we've been having... lol... a "regular" Twave would take almost 2x as long...


Very true. Perhaps this one will slow near 80 based upon current steering which shows the Western periphery of the high near there.

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Quoting WxGeekVA:


They don't teach cursive in my school district, they teach typing instead. My grade was the last grade to be required to do cursive in 2nd grade, now my brothers do typing classes as part of the curriculum instead. And to be fair, I haven't used cursive for anything but the SAT besides signing my name since 2nd grade either.
Kids r still expected to handwrite most stuff here... What about school exams... no writing required?

Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Oh man im not good with grammar maybe this isn't the day to come on then.
It's okay... I say do your best. Can't do better than that..
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Quoting kmanislander:


Unfortunately, the advent of texting is slowly but surely destroying the English language. I have even seen emails coming in now using text style abbreviations. Not a good sign for the young who are soon to graduate etc..

Just bcuz we txt like this...

Does not mean we do not know correct grammar. :)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32024
Quoting kmanislander:


Unfortunately, the advent of texting is slowly but surely destroying the English language. I have even seen emails coming in now using text style abbreviations. Not a good sign for the young who are soon to graduate etc..
I make sure all my children know how to use the English language.We have spelling nights three times a week.They hate it but they'll soon thank me for it when they're older.
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93L

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Why would they teach cursive in schools nowadays? I haven't seen anyone write in cursive in a long time so seems like a waste of time to me. If anything, teach how to read it.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I gotta say... it's really weird to see the blog in this grammar and usage intensive mode... but while it's happening... Just a reminder on the it's vs its usage...

It's stands for IT IS.

Its is for everything else.

And Bahamas has no apostrophe in it. The country The Bahamas is singular [like Barbados, Texas, and United States].

While I'm not that much of a nitpicker about grammar on the blog, I appreciate people who make an effort to punctuate and spell, simply because it's easier to understand what they mean. Having gone through the last week, however, I also have a better understanding of how one's circumstances can make "perfect" grammar/usage very difficult in the blog setting. So I will continue to produce the best writing I can [Golden Rule] but will be less critical of others when they're not perfect.



Unfortunately, the advent of texting is slowly but surely destroying the English language. I have even seen emails coming in now using text style abbreviations. Not a good sign for the young who are soon to graduate etc..
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Quoting kmanislander:


Sooner than that I would think at the present forward speed. More like late Monday night/ early Tuesday. At 20 knots it is covering some liquid real estate fairly quickly. Jamaica is about 11 degrees down the road or 660 miles. 20 knots is 23 mph.

Not used to these "speed waves" we've been having... lol... a "regular" Twave would take almost 2x as long...
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I gotta say... it's really weird to see the blog in this grammar and usage intensive mode... but while it's happening... Just a reminder on the it's vs its usage...

It's stands for IT IS.

Its is for everything else.

And Bahamas has no apostrophe in it. The country The Bahamas is singular [like Barbados, Texas, and United States].

While I'm not that much of a nitpicker about grammar on the blog, I appreciate people who make an effort to punctuate and spell, simply because it's easier to understand what they mean. Having gone through the last week, however, I also have a better understanding of how one's circumstances can make "perfect" grammar/usage very difficult in the blog setting. So I will continue to produce the best writing I can [Golden Rule] but will be less critical of others when they're not perfect.

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Quoting wunderkidcayman:


so Baha as we are in a non-argueing state so what happens if it start up before Jamaica like S of Dom. Rep. and Haiti like 70W-73W right? so no saying it won't happen; lets just say it does. then what?
I'd still say slow organization until past you guys. Looks like there will be a stronger weakness later in the week that should induce more of a NWly track than w/ Ernesto.

But we shall see...
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They still teach cursive here. Most kids can type faster than the teacher by age eight, from texting and games.
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We could always watch the episode of Storm Chasers that covers the historic tornado season of 2011.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32024
Quoting WxGeekVA:


They don't teach cursive in my school district, they teach typing instead. My grade was the last grade to be required to do cursive in 2nd grade, now my brothers do typing classes as part of the curriculum instead. And to be fair, I haven't used cursive for anything but the SAT besides signing my name since 2nd grade either.
I hated having to learn cursive.I had a strict teacher as well that just wouldn't let up.I'm glad they're teaching typing though.I mean we are in the digital age.
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Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Slow blog today so whats the topic of discussion today?


Maybe a Western Gulf storm potential depending on what rest of models say today.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Grammar.
Oh man im not good with grammar maybe this isn't the day to come on then.
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Is there more of the Saharan dust coming off in the last couple of years than in years past? Just curious.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Dead Atlantic and the future ramp up in activity that's suppose to happen.
I see
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Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Slow blog today so whats the topic of discussion today?

Grammar.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Grothar, you on a grammar binge this morning?


Who, me, no, never, why? Just trying to find some good images.
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Quoting Tribucanes:


In the first sentence, while a comma is okay, it is not necessary in that instance. Capitalizing to, too, there, their, and they're was incorrect also. Technology is taking away proper grammar skills from kids in America. Many schools are no longer even teaching cursive handwriting. Educational standards in America have tanked. I'm just happy when a kid can find the state he/she lives in on a map. :) Lots of sharp young men and women here though.


They don't teach cursive in my school district, they teach typing instead. My grade was the last grade to be required to do cursive in 2nd grade, now my brothers do typing classes as part of the curriculum instead. And to be fair, I haven't used cursive for anything but the SAT besides signing my name since 2nd grade either.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
4th consecutive run the GFS shows a system in the Gulf.


Yup - I do think GFS is on to something - not saying a Texas storm but as I pointed out this morning - the 0Z NOGAPS and 0Z EURO show the same low developing in or near the Bay of Campeche in 6 to 7 days time - that is definitely within a reasonable time frame and not long range. See if the other afternoon models continue with a consensus on this.
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Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Slow blog today so whats the topic of discussion today?
Dead Atlantic and the future ramp up in activity that's suppose to happen.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
Slow blog today so whats the topic of discussion today?
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Quoting Grothar:


Please place a period between her and LOL!


Grothar, you on a grammar binge this morning?
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Quoting Grothar:


Thanks for the clarification. It may be useful this season.


I have no doubt that it will. :)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.