Remains of TD 7 kill two in Trinidad; 93L too dry to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:31 PM GMT on August 12, 2012

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The remains of Tropical Depression Seven brought heavy rains to Trinidad on Saturday, unleashing flooding and mudslides that killed two people and left two others missing in Diego Martin. The storm is headed westward at 20 mph across the Caribbean, but high wind shear of 15 - 25 knots should prevent the system from regenerating. None of the reliable models forecasts that TD 7 will regenerate, and the storm should arrive in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-TD 7 a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.


Figure 1. An analysis of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) from 8 am EDT August 12, 2012. Very dry air from the Sahara (yellow and orange colors) surrounds the tropical wave designated 93L in the Central Atlantic. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS and NOAA/Hurricane Research Division.

93L
A large tropical wave(Invest 93L) is located in the Central Atlantic about 700 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show a pronounced spin to the atmosphere at mid levels, but little in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis from the University of Wisconsin shows that 93L is surrounded by a large area of dry air from the Sahara, which has infiltrated into the storm. This dry air will be a significant impediment to development, as the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that mid-levels of the atmosphere will remain very dry during the next four days. None of the reliable computer models develop 93L during the coming five days, and the storm is expected to move west-northwest and then north, recurving well to the east of Bermuda. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model is predicting 93L will develop into a tropical depression in about a week, once the storm recurves and begins heading northeast. At this point, it does not appear 93L will trouble any land areas.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting belizeit:
If you look at the last couple of frames from EX7 it looks like there is a cerculation to the west of the main convection


No question there is a circulation but dry air is also a big killer for this system.

If you run this loop you will see several outflow boundaries where dry air is making the thunderstorms collapse. There is one particularly impressive outflow if you watch just SW of PR. The arc cloud shoots out towards the NW.
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winds kinda strong.
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Quoting ncstorm:
216 hours--


Is the first time on this season that I see the Euro more strong with something in the MDR.
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Nice T-Wave signature on ASCAT, but nothing closed or close to it.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3468
Quoting Patrap:
Time for Captain Piccard
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If you look at the last couple of frames from EX7 it looks like there is a cerculation to the west of the main convection
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Quoting Patrap:

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. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . _






how'd you do that?

whenever i try to type something like this, wunderground's system messes it up...
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216 hours--
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Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Your generation may witness other changes. I submit those 35yrs old on up will have witnessed way more than your generation regarding the beginning of "the real digital age." After all, some of us were alive before there was even a satellite in the sky.
;)

And zelda says... beware 95L and 96L, especially 96L.



Sounds absolutely miserable......i cant even remember when there werent cellphones....and smartphones have been around for much of my life too...

Satellites have really changed the way we can look at weather.....
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Lot's of rumbling here in Palm Beach county...
Loud rumbling now...........It's coming
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Guess it means that there is still "SOMETHING" leftover from TD 7... other than that... Dead.
BBL


The sharp wind shift was left over from yesterday and continues with this wave.
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Quoting gregpinehurstnc:
One day in the future, the kids like me between 10-20 years old now will look back and say they witnessed the beginning of the real digital age, where the ways of the past died right in front of our very eyes. This is the beginning of the period of accelerating technological and social change that will last for the remainder of human existence and when the ways of the past are forgot,, history shall repeat,
Your generation may witness other changes. I submit those 35yrs old on up will have witnessed way more than your generation regarding the beginning of "the real digital age." After all, some of us were alive before there was even a satellite in the sky.
;)

And zelda says... beware 95L and 96L, especially 96L.

(T-3)
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Lot's of rumbling here in Palm Beach county...
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Quoting JLPR2:
Does Ex-TD 7 have bad luck or will that ULL that formed ahead of it will help it somehow?



That ULL is the base of the TUTT I just posted about and earlier this morning. While TUTTS produce low shear they are not generally conducive to tropical cyclone activity because a surface low needs an upper level high to allow air to rise, condense, create thunderstorms and then vent, allowing the cycle to start repeating and thus lower surface pressure.
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Quoting kmanislander:
Wind shift at 42059


Guess it means that there is still "SOMETHING" leftover from TD 7... other than that... Dead.
BBL
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Caribbean - Rainbow Loop


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Quoting midgulfmom:
Sad but true. Kindred spirits are out there....just harder to find now. But keep looking, you'll find.


California's a good place for them! Despite being the hub of so much of what plagues society, it's also full of people staying under the radar. My daughter doesn't have FB either and she hates text type even on a phone. She only has one friend she ever texts to, and not very often. She does go on a Pokemon chat forum though! LOL And a few digital art sharing ones.
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Quoting ncstorm:
12z Euro..look like we may have some action

192 hours

The GFS and EURO said the same thing about the Wave-train last week... and we ended up with a crappy TD. and 93L never survived...

Wave train should begin to get interesting next week... This week in the Tropics should be pretty boring, and uneventful
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I believe we are selling the younger generation way short.My young men are leaps and bounds ahead of were I was at there age. In the sense that they got to attend some special classes while in elementary that taught them critical thinking skills. Buy teachers that were of exceptional quality. They taught them how to think, we worked on how to make them feel.I see a lot of these traits in the people they associate with, in this world it's onward and forward don't look back. Education is the only defense we have against ignorance.The mass media left or right is bent on the destruction of the common ground, divide and conquer, that's how the power structure keeps things in ck. Once in awhile got to come unglued.
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Wind shift at 42059

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12z Euro..look like we may have some action

192 hours
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Quoting weatherh98:


Why are we using direct adressess, cody?

I just wanted to say Hi :)
-Tyler

lol
Tropics have been murdered overnight... Bye
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207. JLPR2
Does Ex-TD 7 have bad luck or will that ULL that formed ahead of it help it somehow?

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8493
Quoting stormpetrol:


850mb looking better.


Ex 7 just passed buoy 42059 as winds there have now switched to the SE gusting clsoe to 25 MPH. Pressure 1010.8 and falling but that is probably close to the bottom. Thunderstorms being enhanced by the TUTT.

This from the discussion at 2


"The wave also lies underneath the base of an upper level trough in the W Atlc...which is helping produce showers/thunderstorms near the wave.
Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/AXNT20.html#o lk425OlQSXF5GJU.99"

See also my post at entry 42 this morning about the TUTT
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Quoting midgulfmom:
Thanks!

Good indication we haven't hit the "real" season. They haven't slowed down forward speed.
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Quoting Grothar:
Poor little thing.

looks better to me.
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Quoting ncstorm:
You guys do realize you have become your parents..dont you think their generation said the same thing about us and our culture when we growing up and MTV just came on on the air?..their parents also said the same thing when bandstand aired?..every generation there are some out there that tried to be over the top but in the end, we turned out okay (speaking for myself) as your parents did and so on..not giving an excuse to what our kids see and hear but they will probably be saying the same thing about their own children..you guys just gotten old..LOL..

my thing is be a parent and not a friend and your child will turn out fine
I give it an 80.....Good beat, easy to dance to.
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ATCF did an update on ex TD7 at 18z.

AL, 07, 2012081218, , BEST, 0, 140N, 680W, 25, 1011, WV
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Quoting stormpetrol:
I think it's time reactivate a floater on exTD7 , looking better every hour.
Quite windy*25mph, gusting to 35 at times, here in western Puerto Rico as ex TD7 passes to our south....
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Anyone noticing the strong east coast trough that some of the models have been showing?

12z Euro 144 hours


CMC


GFS not so enthused
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Quoting lovemamatus:
Wow!! 10 % chance within 48 hrs? Seven is certain to become a major hurricane in the Western Carib. Walton is being way too conservative here.

I wish there was a betting line on this site.


haha shame you're not in the UK, can go in a betting shop in town and place a bet on pretty much anything...including weather!
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Quoting sdswwwe:
Why would they teach cursive in schools nowadays? I haven't seen anyone write in cursive in a long time so seems like a waste of time to me. If anything, teach how to read it.


LOL somehow I find that sad... I use cursive writing and I can't imagine an America where people don't know how...I mean in my day we went to school to learn the three R's...reading, righting, and rithmatic :) Glad I missed the grammar test I was never a good student. Break is about over so I will be going back outside to finish some painting as soon as I can make myself get up from here :)
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You guys do realize you have become your parents..dont you think their generation said the same thing about us and our culture when we growing up and MTV just came on on the air?..their parents also said the same thing when bandstand aired?..every generation there are some out there that tried to be over the top but in the end, we turned out okay (speaking for myself) as your parents did and so on..not giving an excuse to what our kids see and hear but they will probably be saying the same thing about their own children..you guys just gotten old..LOL..

my thing is be a parent and not a friend and your child will turn out fine
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Well this is certainly an interesting topic we are on.....i elect to not get involved
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Quoting lovemamatus:
Wow!! 10 % chance within 48 hrs? Seven is certain to become a major hurricane in the Western Carib. Walton is being way too conservative here.

I wish there was a betting line on this site.
love....... I would wager my car, my house, and my dog against you... Your name shows your type
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188. Grother....Is that sarcasm flag on?
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Quoting beell:
Kids r still expected...
Twave would take almost 2x as long...
[lol @ the hubris of this]...
Thanks 4 the reminder...

lol, bh
There is a reason I don't expect perfection of others... then they'd expect it of me... lol

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Quoting Altestic2012:

The problem is they choose to listen to the wrong music and watch the wrong TV shows. So much of the hip hop and pop music today (that, which the popular "preppy" kids choose to listen to) as well as the mainstream TV shows on the network channels and Viacom (e.g. MTV, VH1, BET, Comedy Central, Spike) endorse sexual activity outside of a stable, healthy engagement or marriage, one-night stands, fighting, abuse, rape, murder, etc. There are the good bands like Metallica which endorse faith and strong morals and then the nameless ones which endorse--you know.


And the kids are watching right next to their folkes. Doesn't work unless you lead by example and just try to dictate what they should do. When we had a tv, I never watched anything with her to desensitise her to any of the above. Not to mention, I just don't like stuff like that myself. But if I were going to watch anything that would have it in it, would be after she was asleep. And then of course she'll form her own opinions about it all naturally without it seeming the 'norm'. She's 14 now, she doesn't wear make up or want to, she doesn't care about celebrities or pop/mainstream stuff. She knows she's different, and she seems quite proud of it, so, hopefully she'll be on course to make the most of herself for herself, and not just trying to get the attention of guys for her self esteem. As for the whole marriage thing...that's the key, a 'stable' one. My last husband ended up being abusive, so have been living as a single mom for 9 or 10 years. My first husband was a closet drug addict, so not any better! So after those 2, reckoned was better to go it alone despite how difficult it is financially. But, a stable home environment is key, fore me raising her alone has been the best way to give her that. My parents split when I was 14, and they hated that they had kids and made it clear! Sort of stereotypical, selfish 80's yuppies really LOL So wasn't a much better environment being raised by both LOL Not going to go more into this, but just saying from my point of view, take it or leave it...
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Yes Petrol, on the visible I believe I see a circulation even on the surface.
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I think it's time reactivate a floater on exTD7 , looking better every hour.
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Poor little thing.

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Quoting txjac:


My kids are the same way! Mine also have a awesome set of morals and dare to be differnt than their peers. Seriously proud of them

Awesome Mom! :)
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Ex-td7 looking better this afternoon may bring life to WKCaman.
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Quoting Progster:

That link you posted is very interesting, as not only does the storm get into the "950s" but it continues to exist for about 14 days and remains almost stationary, not that it could really go anywhere as it was all ready there and not a lot of 'effects,'to effect it.
Thanks for the link.
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850mb looking better.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


There really isn't anything one can do to go against the mainstream anymore. It's just too strong and well established to go against it. All you can do is stay under the radar that you think what's going on is unacceptable, because if you step up, "they" cut you down.
Sad but true. Kindred spirits are out there....just harder to find now. But keep looking, you'll find.
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This sign must truly herald the end of the Olympics as they knew it!

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/story/2012/08 /12/north-arctic-cyclone-beaufort-sea.html?cmp=rss


Yep, it bottomed out in the high 950's. Very intense.

Link

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.