Remains of TD 7 kill two in Trinidad; 93L too dry to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:31 PM GMT on August 12, 2012

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The remains of Tropical Depression Seven brought heavy rains to Trinidad on Saturday, unleashing flooding and mudslides that killed two people and left two others missing in Diego Martin. The storm is headed westward at 20 mph across the Caribbean, but high wind shear of 15 - 25 knots should prevent the system from regenerating. None of the reliable models forecasts that TD 7 will regenerate, and the storm should arrive in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-TD 7 a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.


Figure 1. An analysis of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) from 8 am EDT August 12, 2012. Very dry air from the Sahara (yellow and orange colors) surrounds the tropical wave designated 93L in the Central Atlantic. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS and NOAA/Hurricane Research Division.

93L
A large tropical wave(Invest 93L) is located in the Central Atlantic about 700 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show a pronounced spin to the atmosphere at mid levels, but little in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis from the University of Wisconsin shows that 93L is surrounded by a large area of dry air from the Sahara, which has infiltrated into the storm. This dry air will be a significant impediment to development, as the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that mid-levels of the atmosphere will remain very dry during the next four days. None of the reliable computer models develop 93L during the coming five days, and the storm is expected to move west-northwest and then north, recurving well to the east of Bermuda. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model is predicting 93L will develop into a tropical depression in about a week, once the storm recurves and begins heading northeast. At this point, it does not appear 93L will trouble any land areas.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Felix2007:
TS in Texas at 228.
..certain parts of texas can use this rain if this does happen
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Quoting PlazaRed:

My Second comment on this quote:-
I would leave it up to those of great knowledge, wisdom and experience to speculate and postulate what would happen if an Atlantic Cat 3 or over, was to slip into the GOM via Cuba or just south of Florida at the moment or in the next few weeks?
All comments on this will be noted with great interest.
..well this time of year, should something slip into the gulf and build, they usually slip either into texas or the extreme northern gulf coast, say around new orleans area, but then, you never know
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TS in Texas at 228.
Member Since: July 12, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 383
Quoting Patrap:
There are now 130 days until the 2012 Winter Solstice.
..pat this december is going to be interesting according to the mayans..we'll see what happens..weather sure IS funny this year
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RITA-2005 Atlantic Basin


Pre-storm SST




SSTs during Storm




Post-storm SST

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But who's been right this year?? Ding Ding its the GFS!!! But it disagrees on the euro but shows a system affect south tx at 240 hrs while the euro shows eatl systems....remember the trend!
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Quoting LargoFl:
..yes you could be right there


I've been diving in the Red Sea. 93 degrees at 100 feet. It's one of the few times I've actually broken out in a sweat underwater. :) The land temperatures are just as extreme. 115 degrees with 85 degree dewpoints on the coast. If they ever got the right flow pattern, it would make a GOM storm look like a cakewalk.
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Quoting LargoFl:
.....geez when these Highs get OUT of the gulf..the first storm thats in there..goes BOOM...high 80's to 90's water temps, gee

My Second comment on this quote:-
I would leave it up to those of great knowledge, wisdom and experience to speculate and postulate what would happen if an Atlantic Cat 3 or over, was to slip into the GOM via Cuba or just south of Florida at the moment or in the next few weeks?
All comments on this will be noted with great interest.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
I think there is a sense in every generation that this is the end of the world. It's also very easy to blame the technology we develop for that ending, because, in one sense it is the changes in the current technology that lead to the end of the world - AS WE KNOW IT. 1800s saw the industrial revolution; the end of slavery as an economic driver [do you know that slavery existed in societies around the world for literally THOUSANDS of years?]; the 1900s saw the rise of high-speed travel and communications, along with the electrification of the world. In each case there were people who clung to the "old" ways of doing things as being a more righteous way of living. I don't agree with them; I think it's just more comforting to resist change, because change is uncertainty. OTOH, I also realize that change is also life; for example, a language that stops changing is a dead language.

On a social level, I think the whole social values argument is cyclical, and, frankly, reactionary. A lot of the values of family, home, and society we lament the loss of came from the Victorian era, which were a reaction to the laxity and lack of social values of the previous century. These in turn were to a certain extent a reaction to the 1600s with its period of social repressiveness as seen in the British civil war era.

I also think that, while there are a lot of "dittoheads" out there, there are also a lot of intelligent, thinking young people, coming from a wide variety of backgrounds. Some of the "old people" don't give kids the credit they deserve, and lump the mostly okay ones in the the few bad apples. But that aspect of humanity hasn't changed.

IMO the single worst influence on most kids today is the way they interact with parents, and a lot of their view of parents is influenced by the fictional media [I mean cartoons, TV, movies etc.]. Parents are presented as the anti / opposite, so children are very early on discouraged from viewing their parents as allies and sources of reasonable advice. It doesn't help that so many American parents make many bad choices that don't encourage respect from their children.

Nonetheless, there are many other parents who are doing the best they can with what they have. It doesn't seem to matter so much whether they are rich, middle class or poor, or what their religious persuasion is, so long as they have a values system their children can learn. Even marital status is less important that teaching children to love themselves and others, to have self-esteem and respect for others. I know single mothers who didn't finish high school raise children who have achieved highly, while a child of affluent parents is now a street bum.

For all the parents out there, I really respect what you are doing to give your children the best of you.


Really good.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26472
One of the prophecies of the Mayans is that our hatred and materialism will come to an end. On this certain day in 2012 , our choice will be to honor all humanity, that the thinking species must disappear as they are destroying the planet and evolve instead ...

Earliest evidence of Mayan turkey domestication revealed
NEWS AUGUST 9, 2012BY: PAUL HAMAKER


Archaeologists, paleontologists, and geneticists from the United States and Canada reported the first known evidence of the domestication and use of the Mexican turkey (Meleagris gallopavo) in the ancient Mayan word in an August 8, 2012, article published in the open access peer reviewed journal Public Library of Science.

View slideshow: Mayan turkey domestication
Late Preclassic (300 BC to AD 100) turkey remains identified at the archaeological site of El Mirador (Petén, Guatemala) are the first and only evidence that the Mayan civilization domesticated turkeys at that time. The natural range of the Mexican turkey (Meleagris gallopavo) does not extend to what is considered the boundary of the Mayan world.


Male north american turkey (Meleagris gallopavo)
Photo credit: photo taken by en:User:Lupin This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license.
The evidence indicates that the Mayans acquired turkeys through trade with northern Mesoamerican peoples. The nearest verifiable turkey populations at this time were approximately 600 kilometers (660 miles) from the nearest borders of the established Mayan world. This fact is indicative of the breadth of trade the Mayans established.

Male and female turkey fossils were found at the El Mirador site with purposefully clipped wing bones indicating the birds were kept in captivity. This is one of the few existing examples from history that the Mayan people domesticated wild animals as a food source.

DNA evidence, spur morphology, and bone analysis confirmed the discovery time frame to be the earliest known Mayan turkey domestication and demonstrated the alteration of wing structure with the purpose to prevent flight by the Mayan people. Previous archaeological finds had evidence of pens, egg shells, and fossilized neonates that dated from the Classical Period.
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Right on cue, here comes the Euro predicting a very active wave train.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24167
big picture

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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


no outbreak of tornadoes, shear is very inadequate 30-40kts, not 80-120kts.....

Supercells, yes, shear will help them to move along enough for that...tornadoes....no


Bulk shear may increase rapidly if we get the deep layer moisture return forecast, plus the relatively extreme temperature differentials the second front may bring. I tend to think you're right, but it will be an interesting week. After last April, I can live for a long time and never have to spend 24 hours on the radio with tornado warnings coming in every five minutes...again. If the models do turn out to be right, Mississippi, Alabama, and parts of Georgia will be in the bullseye.
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Quoting sar2401:


Indeed, if the models prove out, which they've done so far, the southeast may be looking at a rare outbreak of summer tornadoes, followed by unseasonably cool air. I'm more concerned about this than anything going on in the tropics right now.


no outbreak of tornadoes, shear is very inadequate 30-40kts, not 80-120kts.....

Supercells, yes, shear will help them to move along enough for that...tornadoes....no
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Quoting Patrap:
There are now 130 days until the 2012 Winter Solstice.


Uh oh, isn't that around the time the Mayans said we are all going to die? DOOM. :)
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well so far so good on any terrible storm today, a rest day for us on here huh
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When the EURO model predicts this..


This is when you start paying attention.

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Quoting sar2401:
"The world is passing through troublous times. The young people of today think of nothing but themselves. They have no reverence for parents or old age. They are impatient of all restraint. They talk as if they knew everything, and what passes for wisdom with us is foolishness with them. As for the girls, they are forward, immodest and unladylike in speech, behavior and dress."

Quote by Peter the Hermit, in A.D. 1274. There are many similar quotes going all the way back to Plato and Socrates. I think this generation will make it through fine, just different, as did my generation, which was also different than our parents. TV and rock and roll were going to destroy the world. We worry too much about small things.



lol...ive heard people talk about kids nowadays like that....very often
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Quoting PlazaRed:

I was looking at the Persian Gulf SSTs earlier and they are in the 90s.
At these temp in the GOM the area might be able to exclude lows from forming, that is until something really goes wrong!
..yes you could be right there
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:




Late week NWS Huntsville, AL Forecast Discussion:

THERE IS STILL A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE GFS AND
ECMWF/GEM REGARDING HOW FAR TO THE SOUTH AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR IN
THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL PUSH BY MID-WEEK. THUS...WILL NOT
MAKE MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING...WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WARRANTED TO REFLECT
UNCERTAINTY. IF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS MORE ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE REGION THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...PRECIP CHANCES WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE INCREASED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS
IT DOES APPEAR THAT A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVES WILL TRAVERSE
THE REGION IN WESTERLY FLOW REGIME TO THE NORTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE MORE
SUBSTANTIALLY ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A LEAD WAVE EJECTS
NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG/AMPLIFIED MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS -- IN A PATTERN MUCH MORE
CHARACTERISTIC OF AUTUMN THAN THE MIDDLE OF AUGUST. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR AN EVEN STRONGER COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
..AND HAVE INDICATED THIS BY RAISING POPS AND
DECREASING TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.


Indeed, if the models prove out, which they've done so far, the southeast may be looking at a rare outbreak of summer tornadoes, followed by unseasonably cool air. I'm more concerned about this than anything going on in the tropics right now.
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There are now 130 days until the 2012 Winter Solstice.
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Quoting LargoFl:
.....geez when these Highs get OUT of the gulf..the first storm thats in there..goes BOOM...high 80's to 90's water temps, gee

I was looking at the Persian Gulf SSTs earlier and they are in the 90s.
At these temp in the GOM the area might be able to exclude lows from forming, that is until something really goes wrong!
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"The world is passing through troublous times. The young people of today think of nothing but themselves. They have no reverence for parents or old age. They are impatient of all restraint. They talk as if they knew everything, and what passes for wisdom with us is foolishness with them. As for the girls, they are forward, immodest and unladylike in speech, behavior and dress."

Quote by Peter the Hermit, in A.D. 1274. There are many similar quotes going all the way back to Plato and Socrates. I think this generation will make it through fine, just different, as did my generation, which was also different than our parents. TV and rock and roll were going to destroy the world. We worry too much about small things.

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Quoting sar2401:


Correct. The low in Montgomery was 64, only three degrees off the record low. The penetration of cooler and drier air was much more extensive than I thought it would be. It's up to 88 now, but we have blue skies and a dew point of 59. Yesterday at this time, we had 91 and a dewpoint of 72. Huge difference in terms of apparent temperatures, and very unusual for us in August.




Late week NWS Huntsville, AL Forecast Discussion:

THERE IS STILL A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE GFS AND
ECMWF/GEM REGARDING HOW FAR TO THE SOUTH AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR IN
THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL PUSH BY MID-WEEK. THUS...WILL NOT
MAKE MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING...WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WARRANTED TO REFLECT
UNCERTAINTY. IF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS MORE ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE REGION THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...PRECIP CHANCES WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE INCREASED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS
IT DOES APPEAR THAT A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVES WILL TRAVERSE
THE REGION IN WESTERLY FLOW REGIME TO THE NORTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE MORE
SUBSTANTIALLY ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A LEAD WAVE EJECTS
NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG/AMPLIFIED MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS -- IN A PATTERN MUCH MORE
CHARACTERISTIC OF AUTUMN THAN THE MIDDLE OF AUGUST. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR AN EVEN STRONGER COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
..AND HAVE INDICATED THIS BY RAISING POPS AND
DECREASING TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
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..........hopefully we will get a shower tonight, no rain in a week by me and temps are way up there
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.....geez when these Highs get OUT of the gulf..the first storm thats in there..goes BOOM...high 80's to 90's water temps, gee
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Quoting sar2401:


They've also caused people a lot of needless anxiety. Before satellites, TD07 would have been just been another windy tropical wave that pass through the Caribbean on a regular basis. 93L would have been born, lived, and died with nothing but a few ship reports to mark its passing. We now look at every little swirl and blob as a potential "major", and we are wrong way more often than we are right. No doubt that satellites have increased our knowledge of tropical storms and saved lives but, like almost all advances in technology, it's a double edged sword.


TD07 isnt worrying me......at all...and im not looking at a potential major....
See the problem isnt the technology....knowadays nothing sneaks by us anymore, we dont have any surprise hurricanes out of nowhere, we can attempt to see RI, we have microwave, we can get people evacuated....all is much better with the technology..
The issue is how we use the technology.
I find it quite stupid and restraining to say we shouldn't advance our technology because it causes anxiety and problems....such a mindset only hinders humans more than it helps them...

ok, rant over.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I think there is a sense in every generation that this is the end of the world. It's also very easy to blame the technology we develop for that ending, because, in one sense it is the changes in the current technology that lead to the end of the world - AS WE KNOW IT. 1800s saw the industrial revolution; the end of slavery as an economic driver [do you know that slavery existed in societies around the world for literally THOUSANDS of years?]; the 1900s saw the rise of high-speed travel and communications, along with the electrification of the world. In each case there were people who clung to the "old" ways of doing things as being a more righteous way of living. I don't agree with them; I think it's just more comforting to resist change, because change is uncertainty. OTOH, I also realize that change is also life; for example, a language that stops changing is a dead language.

On a social level, I think the whole social values argument is cyclical, and, frankly, reactionary. A lot of the values of family, home, and society we lament the loss of came from the Victorian era, which were a reaction to the laxity and lack of social values of the previous century. These in turn were to a certain extent a reaction to the 1600s with its period of social repressiveness as seen in the British civil war era.

I also think that, while there are a lot of "dittoheads" out there, there are also a lot of intelligent, thinking young people, coming from a wide variety of backgrounds. Some of the "old people" don't give kids the credit they deserve, and lump the mostly okay ones in the the few bad apples. But that aspect of humanity hasn't changed.

IMO the single worst influence on most kids today is the way they interact with parents, and a lot of their view of parents is influenced by the fictional media [I mean cartoons, TV, movies etc.]. Parents are presented as the anti / opposite, so children are very early on discouraged from viewing their parents as allies and sources of reasonable advice. It doesn't help that so many American parents make many bad choices that don't encourage respect from their children.

Nonetheless, there are many other parents who are doing the best they can with what they have. It doesn't seem to matter so much whether they are rich, middle class or poor, or what their religious persuasion is, so long as they have a values system their children can learn. Even marital status is less important that teaching children to love themselves and others, to have self-esteem and respect for others. I know single mothers who didn't finish high school raise children who have achieved highly, while a child of affluent parents is now a street bum.

For all the parents out there, I really respect what you are doing to give your children the best of you.
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Quoting ncstorm:


when was this? the cold front that just passed through?


Correct. The low in Montgomery was 64, only three degrees off the record low. The penetration of cooler and drier air was much more extensive than I thought it would be. It's up to 88 now, but we have blue skies and a dew point of 59. Yesterday at this time, we had 91 and a dewpoint of 72. Huge difference in terms of apparent temperatures, and very unusual for us in August.
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Quoting ncstorm:


when was this? the cold front that just passed through?


yes, this morning..lol
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Link

PR radar.
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
255 PM EDT SUN AUG 12 2012

FLZ067-068-072-168-172-121930-
COASTAL BROWARD COUNTY FL COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY FL INLAND PALM
BEACH COUNTY FL METRO BROWARD COUNTY FL METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY FL
255 PM EDT SUN AUG 12 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN BROWARD
COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY...FOR FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING...

* UNTIL 330 PM EDT

* AT 252 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
HAVERHILL TO PLANTATION...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

* THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT...
GREENACRES CITY...
COCONUT CREEK...
BOCA WEST...
ATLANTIS...
MANGONIA PARK...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING. LIGHTNING IS
THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN
SHELTERS FOUND IN PARKS...ON BEACHES OR GOLF COURSES OFFER NO
PROTECTION FROM THE DANGERS OF LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE
BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2609 8011 2598 8030 2678 8016 2688 8005
2680 8003 2663 8003 2660 8004 2659 8003
TIME...MOT...LOC 1855Z 211DEG 13KT 2667 8012 2612 8023

$$
PS
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Quoting Altestic2012:

It's like a malignant cancer, really. Started in the 1920s, went dormant for 30-40 years, reestablished itself in the 1960s, then has continued to progress toward its terminal stage, which is occurring right now before our very eyes.

It doesn't mean you have to adhere to it, though. I'm proud of myself that I only have a primitive cell phone and MP3 player from 2005 instead of the latest iProduct, Android, Blackberry, etc. and have the decency not to think sex is some kind of joke, but rather a very sacred occurrence that should ONLY occur between two people who are connected beyond any shadow of a possibility of separation.
I think there is a sense in every generation that this is the end of the world. It's also very easy to blame the technology we develop for that ending, because, in one sense it is the changes in the current technology that lead to the end of the world - AS WE KNOW IT. 1800s saw the industrial revolution; the end of slavery as an economic driver [do you know that slavery existed in societies around the world for literally THOUSANDS of years?]; the 1900s saw the rise of high-speed travel and communications, along with the electrification of the world. In each case there were people who clung to the "old" ways of doing things as being a more righteous way of living. I don't agree with them; I think it's just more comforting to resist change, because change is uncertainty. OTOH, I also realize that change is also life; for example, a language that stops changing is a dead language.

On a social level, I think the whole social values argument is cyclical, and, frankly, reactionary. A lot of the values of family, home, and society we lament the loss of came from the Victorian era, which were a reaction to the laxity and lack of social values of the previous century. These in turn were to a certain extent a reaction to the 1600s with its period of social repressiveness as seen in the British civil war era.

I also think that, while there are a lot of "dittoheads" out there, there are also a lot of intelligent, thinking young people, coming from a wide variety of backgrounds. Some of the "old people" don't give kids the credit they deserve, and lump the mostly okay ones in the the few bad apples. But that aspect of humanity hasn't changed.

IMO the single worst influence on most kids today is the way they interact with parents, and a lot of their view of parents is influenced by the fictional media [I mean cartoons, TV, movies etc.]. Parents are presented as the anti / opposite, so children are very early on discouraged from viewing their parents as allies and sources of reasonable advice. It doesn't help that so many American parents make many bad choices that don't encourage respect from their children.

Nonetheless, there are many other parents who are doing the best they can with what they have. It doesn't seem to matter so much whether they are rich, middle class or poor, or what their religious persuasion is, so long as they have a values system their children can learn. Even marital status is less important than teaching children to love themselves and others, to have self-esteem and respect for others. I know single mothers who didn't finish high school raise children who have achieved highly, while a child of affluent parents is now a street bum.

For all the parents out there, I really respect what you are doing to give your children the best of you.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



Sounds absolutely miserable......i cant even remember when there werent cellphones....and smartphones have been around for much of my life too...

Satellites have really changed the way we can look at weather.....


They've also caused people a lot of needless anxiety. Before satellites, TD07 would have been just been another windy tropical wave that pass through the Caribbean on a regular basis. 93L would have been born, lived, and died with nothing but a few ship reports to mark its passing. We now look at every little swirl and blob as a potential "major", and we are wrong way more often than we are right. No doubt that satellites have increased our knowledge of tropical storms and saved lives but, like almost all advances in technology, it's a double edged sword.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


they did see 50s for lows, down to AL and TN....as cool as 51F


when was this? the cold front that just passed through?
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Quoting ncstorm:


I read somewhere that people were talking about an early fall..that some people would see 50's for lows in August


they did see 50s for lows, down to AL and TN....as cool as 51F
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The GFS doesn't have anything in the East Atlantic at that time.



thanks..I was thinking of yesterday 18z run..
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Quoting ncstorm:
Wow..last frame but it looks like some agreement with both models..gfs and Euro


hurricane- Caribbean runner.... Not pretty.
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I wouldn't put too much faith in that storm on the Euro run... If we see some consistency then we may have something going but don't get too excited yet.
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Quoting sar2401:


Most of the models want to bring down a strong cold front, supported by a strong Canadian high, plunging all the way into the Gulf. This last front bought down much cooler and drier air than I thought it would. Even though climatology is against it, we may get a strong front though Alabama by Friday. If so, anything that does form in the Gulf is going to Mexico.


I read somewhere that people were talking about an early fall..that some people would see 50's for lows in August
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Here is ascat from 12 hrs ago you can see a lot of inprovement in the structure of ex 7 compared to the last pass
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Quoting ncstorm:
Wow..last frame but it looks like some agreement with both models..gfs and Euro


The GFS doesn't have anything in the East Atlantic at that time.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32259
Quoting Patrap:
Caribbean - Rainbow Loop


Quoting ncstorm:
Anyone noticing the strong east coast trough that some of the models have been showing?

12z Euro 144 hours


CMC


GFS not so enthused


Most of the models want to bring down a strong cold front, supported by a strong Canadian high, plunging all the way into the Gulf. This last front bought down much cooler and drier air than I thought it would. Even though climatology is against it, we may get a strong front though Alabama by Friday. If so, anything that does form in the Gulf is going to Mexico.
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Quoting ncstorm:
Wow..last frame but it looks like some agreement with both models..gfs and Euro

Lots of ridging, not a good pattern.
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Quoting stormpetrol:




winds kinda strong.
Yeap ,we are feeling some of them here in Puerto Rico...
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Is the first time on this season that I see the Euro more strong with something in the MDR.


Looks like the lesser antilles might be facing their first real threat this season..
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Wow..last frame but it looks like some agreement with both models..gfs and Euro

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Quoting stormpetrol:




winds kinda strong.


They are, but still just a wave with a broad open surface low.
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Quoting cyclonekid:
Yo tampoco. ;) Ven a "Weather Chat"
All languages have a degree of difficulty, I'm familiar with 4,English is one of them, including, Italian, French, Portuguese, but spanish is my native.
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Quoting belizeit:
If you look at the last couple of frames from EX7 it looks like there is a cerculation to the west of the main convection


No question there is a circulation but dry air is also a big killer for this system.

If you run this loop you will see several outflow boundaries where dry air is making the thunderstorms collapse. There is one particularly impressive outflow if you watch just SW of PR. The arc cloud shoots out towards the NW.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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