Remains of TD 7 kill two in Trinidad; 93L too dry to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:31 PM GMT on August 12, 2012

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The remains of Tropical Depression Seven brought heavy rains to Trinidad on Saturday, unleashing flooding and mudslides that killed two people and left two others missing in Diego Martin. The storm is headed westward at 20 mph across the Caribbean, but high wind shear of 15 - 25 knots should prevent the system from regenerating. None of the reliable models forecasts that TD 7 will regenerate, and the storm should arrive in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-TD 7 a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.


Figure 1. An analysis of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) from 8 am EDT August 12, 2012. Very dry air from the Sahara (yellow and orange colors) surrounds the tropical wave designated 93L in the Central Atlantic. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS and NOAA/Hurricane Research Division.

93L
A large tropical wave(Invest 93L) is located in the Central Atlantic about 700 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show a pronounced spin to the atmosphere at mid levels, but little in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis from the University of Wisconsin shows that 93L is surrounded by a large area of dry air from the Sahara, which has infiltrated into the storm. This dry air will be a significant impediment to development, as the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that mid-levels of the atmosphere will remain very dry during the next four days. None of the reliable computer models develop 93L during the coming five days, and the storm is expected to move west-northwest and then north, recurving well to the east of Bermuda. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model is predicting 93L will develop into a tropical depression in about a week, once the storm recurves and begins heading northeast. At this point, it does not appear 93L will trouble any land areas.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Patrap:
One for the wu-server in San Fran, before its gobbled up by TWC one in Atlanta


Pat, sorry, but that's the worst version of one of the worst songs ever made. In addition, the "Summer of Love" was anything but.
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330. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think I have an impostor...


Found it, using an I instead of an L in TropicalAnaIystwx13.

I wonder who is the looser that keeps making those? XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting Tribucanes:
And then one day you find, ten years have got behind you, no one told you when to run; you missed the starting gun..........Love Pink Floyd Patrap. Whomever said their computer works poorly on Sundays, I hear that. On Sundays my computer works at half the speed, have absolutely no idea why. It certainly is annoying though.

Blue laws.
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Quoting Tribucanes:
And then one day you find, ten years have got behind you, no one told you when to run; you missed the starting gun..........Love Pink Floyd Patrap. Whomever said their computer works poorly on Sundays, I hear that. On Sundays my computer works at half the speed, have absolutely no idea why. It certainly is annoying though.
'Twas I; started about 18 months ago, and my ISP "says" they don't know what's causing it... maybe it's a worldwide drag caused by 1/2 the world being online... lol

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Invest 93L model tracks:



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Quoting Naga5000:


From a sociological standpoint, there are really only a few ways to go. First is education. Education is the single largest predictor of how well off you will be as well as your next generation will be. Part of that education is access to cultural capital across socioeconomic lines. It makes no sense to read the classic cannon of literature, but fail to see why rap in pop culture represents artistic expression to other groups of people. Contextual understanding of knowledge is just as important as knowledge itself.

Secondly it is what you do with this knowledge. Habitus and Practices. How you use the knowledge you've gained creates either the opportunity for either a better quality of life than your parents, or a worse quality. This is what allows for exceptions to rules like children of single parents being more likely to engage in deviant behavior and the like. This, of course, is all other variables aside.

In the post-modern time we live in, we need education, better uses of our knowledge, and the tolerance and understanding to know that cultural differences in society, even from one generation to the next, are completely normal representations of our current societal view or responses to past views that don't quite fit right anymore.
Thanks for sharing this.
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Guess I'm having an 'off' day.
Would love to see the models wrong for a change.
Link Caribbean WV Loop

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Quoting SLU:
Not everyday you get to see a developed cyclone on the EURO and when it and the GFS are in overall agreement, it's time to batten down the hatches.



The real question is, if they develop as forecast, where are they going? Is it fish or DOOM? :)
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One for the wu-server in San Fran, before its gobbled up by TWC one in Atlanta
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
Maybe 93L going up to cat 1
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4935
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
More heavy rains coming to the Philippines from 14W:

Sheesh... like they need any more...

Quoting sar2401:


I's a leftover from your friends at the former BT. :) They take Sundays off.
What, u mean BTC??? if so, I used to get better Sunday service on their days off... lol nobody wanted to get called in to deal w/ an emergency...
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Quoting Patrap:
Ticking away the moments that make up a dull day
You fritter and waste the hours in an offhand way.
Kicking around on a piece of ground in your home town
Waiting for someone or something to show you the way.
I can't read these words as just words. As I read them I'm hearing the band play the song.
.
.
Great lyrics.
Timeless.
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Quoting ncstorm:


it is..thanks..that was a potent cold front..


Interestingly enough, the average lows were a little higher in Ohio than North Alabama. It was a potent but compact package of cool air. If GFS proves right for Friday, I'm going to start looking for my parka. :)
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Quoting Patrap:
Far away across the field
The tolling of the iron bell
Calls the faithful to their knees
To hear the softly spoken magic spells.




Always good to see some Floyd lyrics on a peaceful

Sunday....
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317. SLU
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


12z GFS doesn't have anything at 240 hours in MDR.


If you look at the past few GFS runs it show a storm reaching the NE Caribbean by the 24th which is the same time frame as the EURO. Don't be surprised if the 18Z GFS lactches on to the system again.
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I think I have an impostor...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32524
Time by Pink Floyd.

Classic Rock Sunday.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
Quoting SLU:
Not everyday you get to see a developed cyclone on the EURO and when it and the GFS are in overall agreement, it's time to batten down the hatches.



12z GFS doesn't have anything at 240 hours in MDR.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14557
Quoting Patrap:
Far away across the field
The tolling of the iron bell
Calls the faithful to their knees
To hear the softly spoken magic spells.




Pat, you're such a Renaissance man. :)
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312. SLU
Not everyday you get to see a developed cyclone on the EURO and when it and the GFS are in overall agreement, it's time to batten down the hatches.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
And then one day you find, ten years have got behind you, no one told you when to run; you missed the starting gun..........Love Pink Floyd Patrap. Whomever said their computer works poorly on Sundays, I hear that. On Sundays my computer works at half the speed, have absolutely no idea why. It certainly is annoying though.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Quoting BahaHurican:
I think there is a sense in every generation that this is the end of the world. It's also very easy to blame the technology we develop for that ending, because, in one sense it is the changes in the current technology that lead to the end of the world - AS WE KNOW IT. 1800s saw the industrial revolution; the end of slavery as an economic driver [do you know that slavery existed in societies around the world for literally THOUSANDS of years?]; the 1900s saw the rise of high-speed travel and communications, along with the electrification of the world. In each case there were people who clung to the "old" ways of doing things as being a more righteous way of living. I don't agree with them; I think it's just more comforting to resist change, because change is uncertainty. OTOH, I also realize that change is also life; for example, a language that stops changing is a dead language.

On a social level, I think the whole social values argument is cyclical, and, frankly, reactionary. A lot of the values of family, home, and society we lament the loss of came from the Victorian era, which were a reaction to the laxity and lack of social values of the previous century. These in turn were to a certain extent a reaction to the 1600s with its period of social repressiveness as seen in the British civil war era.

I also think that, while there are a lot of "dittoheads" out there, there are also a lot of intelligent, thinking young people, coming from a wide variety of backgrounds. Some of the "old people" don't give kids the credit they deserve, and lump the mostly okay ones in the the few bad apples. But that aspect of humanity hasn't changed.

IMO the single worst influence on most kids today is the way they interact with parents, and a lot of their view of parents is influenced by the fictional media [I mean cartoons, TV, movies etc.]. Parents are presented as the anti / opposite, so children are very early on discouraged from viewing their parents as allies and sources of reasonable advice. It doesn't help that so many American parents make many bad choices that don't encourage respect from their children.

Nonetheless, there are many other parents who are doing the best they can with what they have. It doesn't seem to matter so much whether they are rich, middle class or poor, or what their religious persuasion is, so long as they have a values system their children can learn. Even marital status is less important than teaching children to love themselves and others, to have self-esteem and respect for others. I know single mothers who didn't finish high school raise children who have achieved highly, while a child of affluent parents is now a street bum.

For all the parents out there, I really respect what you are doing to give your children the best of you.


From a sociological standpoint, there are really only a few ways to go. First is education. Education is the single largest predictor of how well off you will be as well as your next generation will be. Part of that education is access to cultural capital across socioeconomic lines. It makes no sense to read the classic cannon of literature, but fail to see why rap in pop culture represents artistic expression to other groups of people. Contextual understanding of knowledge is just as important as knowledge itself.

Secondly it is what you do with this knowledge. Habitus and Practices. How you use the knowledge you've gained creates either the opportunity for either a better quality of life than your parents, or a worse quality. This is what allows for exceptions to rules like children of single parents being more likely to engage in deviant behavior and the like. This, of course, is all other variables aside.

In the post-modern time we live in, we need education, better uses of our knowledge, and the tolerance and understanding to know that cultural differences in society, even from one generation to the next, are completely normal representations of our current societal view or responses to past views that don't quite fit right anymore.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Ernesto was also a tropical storm on entering the Eastern Caribbean.

Was it? Must have missed that.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32524
Quoting BahaHurican:
Why is my internet always this lousy on Sunday afternoons???


I's a leftover from your friends at the former BT. :) They take Sundays off.
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We have a little fighter, it seems.

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Quoting LargoFl:
..........hopefully we will get a shower tonight, no rain in a week by me and temps are way up there
I think I live 5 miles east of you (E end of Ulmerton, right by 275). We got close to 3" yesterday. Typical Florida storms, eh?
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Quoting sar2401:


How about 53 degrees in Ft. Payne and Huntsville? Huntsville broke the record low by four degrees, Ft. Payne by nine degrees. I'm sure there were higher and more sheltered locations in the upper 40's. This is amazingly cold for Alabama in August. I suspect (but haven't checked) that TN may have had more widespread lows in the upper 40's.


it is..thanks..that was a potent cold front..
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Far away across the field
The tolling of the iron bell
Calls the faithful to their knees
To hear the softly spoken magic spells.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Ernesto organized in the East Caribbean as well, then fell apart in the Central Caribbean.


Ernesto was also a tropical storm on entering the Eastern Caribbean.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Ernesto organized in the East Caribbean as well, then fell apart in the Central Caribbean.
hey cods that euro run was very interesting today :)
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Ticking away the moments that make up a dull day
You fritter and waste the hours in an offhand way.
Kicking around on a piece of ground in your home town
Waiting for someone or something to show you the way.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
Quoting ncstorm:


thanks but thats not 50 degrees..GS said it already happened in August in Al and TN?


How about 53 degrees in Ft. Payne and Huntsville? Huntsville broke the record low by four degrees, Ft. Payne by nine degrees. I'm sure there were higher and more sheltered locations in the upper 40's. This is amazingly cold for Alabama in August. I suspect (but haven't checked) that TN may have had more widespread lows in the upper 40's.
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32524
Quoting Tribucanes:
We don't worship statues or gold in America. We worship ourselves.
I'm not sure that the former is more moral than the latter. ilovephilosphy.com, for any of those who'd like to engage in the proper place.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Haven't been on in a couple of days. See that TD7 just went ahead and degenerated. I looked at the GIF loops of ex-TD7 yesterday on my phone, and its circulation wasn't nearly as impressive yesterday as it is today. I just find it humorous that it has actually organized a little better in the "dead zone". Still open most likely, but more impressive to say the least. We should certainly pay attention to it in the Western Caribbean and in the Gulf if it makes it there.

You can actually see the center approaching 70W and just above 15N in this loop, as it tucks underneath thunderstorms.

Link

Ernesto organized in the East Caribbean as well, then fell apart in the Central Caribbean.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32524
More heavy rains coming to the Philippines from 14W:

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Depth 26.C Isotherm:



Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) Loop:


Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Why is my internet always this lousy on Sunday afternoons???
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Quoting LargoFl:
..certain parts of texas can use this rain if this does happen

Lots of TX is OK; but Centex, home of the Highland lakes chain which supply everybody for a 20mi radius of each 7 lakes just is not getting rain while everybody else is.

People who use this water are going to have drill their own wells, archaic as that seems.
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Quoting LargoFl:
.....geez when these Highs get OUT of the gulf..the first storm thats in there..goes BOOM...high 80's to 90's water temps, gee


I was in Gulf Shores about 10 days ago - absolute bathwater. With no storms stirring things up, there's nothing to prevent at least the near surface temperatures from continuing to climb. The latest forecast I read was for 90 degrees off the Panhandle by the end of the month. The only saving grace is the water temperature at about 300 feet is still 65, so a strong system will have to deal with a lot of cold water upwelling. The thermoclines for diving have been pretty extreme this year.
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Haven't been on in a couple of days. See that TD7 just went ahead and degenerated. I looked at the GIF loops of ex-TD7 yesterday on my phone, and its circulation wasn't nearly as impressive yesterday as it is today. I just find it humorous that it has actually organized a little better in the "dead zone". Still open most likely, but more impressive to say the least. We should certainly pay attention to it in the Western Caribbean and in the Gulf if it makes it there.

You can actually see the center approaching 70W and just above 15N in this loop, as it tucks underneath thunderstorms.

Link
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Tropical Storm Induced Cool Water Upwellings

Studying the relationship between the ocean and hurricane activity is a primary focus for the Earth Scan Laboratory. One aspect of this relationship that has seen progressively greater attention in recent years is the relationship between the topological features at the ocean's surface and hurricane strength and the direction of a hurricane's path. The imagery in this section of our site visualizes affects on sea surface temperatures created by hurricanes traversing the Gulf of Mexico.

KATRINA-2005 Atlantic Basin



Pre-storm SST




SST during storm





Post-storm SST

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
Quoting GTcooliebai:
The dry air in the Central Caribbean has to be SAL related. Another batch out in the Central Atlantic:



If you run the loop below you will see that the moisture field around ex 7 is starting to change shape with a rounder leading and Northern edge as it comes near to passing through 70 W. After this point it has very light shear under the base of the TUTT which, while not particularly conducive for rapid development, should allow for greater thunderstorm activity in the system.

The loop is suggestive of the early stages of an anticyclone possibly trying to form overhead but I would need to see several more frames before drawing that conclusion.

WV Loop

EDIT

Your post updated
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Quoting PlazaRed:

With those kinds of SSTs in the GOM it will be interesting enough if, 'Nothing' happens!
Let alone the possibilities of the great something getting in there and devouring some of that heat.
A storm getting into the GOM runs the risk of rapid intensification like Humberto.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting sar2401:


Correct. The low in Montgomery was 64, only three degrees off the record low. The penetration of cooler and drier air was much more extensive than I thought it would be. It's up to 88 now, but we have blue skies and a dew point of 59. Yesterday at this time, we had 91 and a dewpoint of 72. Huge difference in terms of apparent temperatures, and very unusual for us in August.


thanks but thats not 50 degrees..GS said it already happened in August in Al and TN?
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Quoting LargoFl:
..well this time of year, should something slip into the gulf and build, they usually slip either into Texas or the extreme northern gulf coast, say around new Orleans area, but then, you never know

With those kinds of SSTs in the GOM it will be interesting enough if, 'Nothing' happens!
Let alone the possibilities of the great something getting in there and devouring some of that heat.
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Quoting sar2401:
"The world is passing through troublous times. The young people of today think of nothing but themselves. They have no reverence for parents or old age. They are impatient of all restraint. They talk as if they knew everything, and what passes for wisdom with us is foolishness with them. As for the girls, they are forward, immodest and unladylike in speech, behavior and dress."

Quote by Peter the Hermit, in A.D. 1274. There are many similar quotes going all the way back to Plato and Socrates. I think this generation will make it through fine, just different, as did my generation, which was also different than our parents. TV and rock and roll were going to destroy the world. We worry too much about small things.

Two things:

1) Don't sweat the small stuff.

2) Technology is a tool. Good or evil is what you do with it.

So this takes us back to our discussion of computer models from the other day. Treat the models like tools, not gods, and look at the patterns, not the minutia....
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Moral decline is very very real in the West Baha. If I drew a chart, that tracked the decline of education in the West with the rise of technology, they'd go in a perfect line. It's a fact that the West is in rapid decline an the East now rises. We don't worship statues or gold in America. We worship ourselves. We've gone so far left in this country, and even though we stand on the brink; most are oblivious of the fall to come. Whitewashing it as, this is what every generation goes through; is not accurate at all. This is very different imo.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Quoting PlazaRed:

My Second comment on this quote:-
I would leave it up to those of great knowledge, wisdom and experience to speculate and postulate what would happen if an Atlantic Cat 3 or over, was to slip into the GOM via Cuba or just south of Florida at the moment or in the next few weeks?
All comments on this will be noted with great interest.


I don't qualify as having great knowledge, or wisdom, and only some experience. It's very difficult for a strong ATL storm to transition to the Gulf without crossing Florida. It has happened (although I can't think of any cat 3's at landfall) but it's rare, and the storms have been greatly weakened by the time they reached the Gulf. The real killers for us are the homegrown variety that originate in the Gulf or the Eastern Caribbean. I know we have good weather historians here than give you some details of past storms.
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The dry air in the Central Caribbean has to be SAL related. Another batch out in the Central Atlantic:

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting Felix2007:
TS in Texas at 228.
..certain parts of texas can use this rain if this does happen
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.