Remains of TD 7 kill two in Trinidad; 93L too dry to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:31 PM GMT on August 12, 2012

Share this Blog
35
+

The remains of Tropical Depression Seven brought heavy rains to Trinidad on Saturday, unleashing flooding and mudslides that killed two people and left two others missing in Diego Martin. The storm is headed westward at 20 mph across the Caribbean, but high wind shear of 15 - 25 knots should prevent the system from regenerating. None of the reliable models forecasts that TD 7 will regenerate, and the storm should arrive in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-TD 7 a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.


Figure 1. An analysis of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) from 8 am EDT August 12, 2012. Very dry air from the Sahara (yellow and orange colors) surrounds the tropical wave designated 93L in the Central Atlantic. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS and NOAA/Hurricane Research Division.

93L
A large tropical wave(Invest 93L) is located in the Central Atlantic about 700 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show a pronounced spin to the atmosphere at mid levels, but little in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis from the University of Wisconsin shows that 93L is surrounded by a large area of dry air from the Sahara, which has infiltrated into the storm. This dry air will be a significant impediment to development, as the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that mid-levels of the atmosphere will remain very dry during the next four days. None of the reliable computer models develop 93L during the coming five days, and the storm is expected to move west-northwest and then north, recurving well to the east of Bermuda. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model is predicting 93L will develop into a tropical depression in about a week, once the storm recurves and begins heading northeast. At this point, it does not appear 93L will trouble any land areas.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 381 - 331

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

You well may be RIGHT wonderkidcayman! There I said it. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
TD 7 still lurks..










Lurk-Caster

: )
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:

The models were showing zero development for TD7.
It's in the headlines. Dr. Masters' blog, NHC 2 p.m. Discussion...Kman has been pointing out its persistence.

hmm so very true
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting redwagon:

Got home, WU dropped ex-7? Doesn't look all that dead to me?

nor to some of us.
It would be nice to better the best.
And don't give me that crap about a stopped clock being right once a day. (not you red wagon)

According to Levi, the models are maybe coming around to persistence.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jedkins01:


Unfortunately we are stuck in a pattern that means lots of heavy rain for everyone except the near coastline in most cases, I'm one of those places that is near the coastline. I've never had this little amount of rain at this point in August, it's so weird because we got absolutely slammed throughout June and July and ever since I've lived here you can count on August bringing even more than June and July. The patterns for rain throughout all of August so far have not favored this area, and it seems that when rain is around is it is avoiding us at all costs. I'm just glad we did have so much rain in June and July because this area is typically soaked in August but strangely not so far. I would imagine this strange trend has to end sooner or later.
I thought most of the AUG period rains came AFTER the 15th.... I know it's true here. The first 10 days of Aug are almost dry... the last 10 are almost always rainy... but W coast FL may be different.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21942
The last time Doc declared a system dead:

Update on remains of TD 10
Posted by: JeffMasters, 3:40 PM EDT on August 22, 2005 +0

I've been reluctant to pay much heed to the remains of TD 10 after declaring the system dead forever


well I think we all know what happened. Ya woulda thought the good Dr would've learned a lesson- never ever EVER call a system dead.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Way too many. I need to get a life. XD
you have a life just different than others.:) if you are happy of how your life is now then continue with it.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4253
Quoting Levi32:
We're going to have to watch ex-TD 7 carefully by this Friday into next week as it slips into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. An upper trough digging into the southern U.S. will be setting up a weakness in the ridge there that could result in a fairly stagnant pattern where TD 7's remnants could fester and reorganize over the course of several days as the trough to the northeast takes its time in leaving the scene. Such a pattern with a tropical disturbance southwest of a mid-latitude trough axis can be favorable for development by supporting low-level convergence and ridging aloft. Model support right now is minimal, but the GFS is starting to drop hints of support for this scenario, and I wouldn't be surprised to see other models start to see this as a possibility.

In 7 days look at the favorable upper high over the western gulf due to the pattern caused by the digging trough to the northeast and the MJO coming trough:




Seconded. Was seeing a hint of a significant GOM storm by 156-170 hrs yesterday and that is still showing up today.


Big questions will be how fast it develops, if it does, and where it goes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sar2401:


Yeah, BTC. I think it's been privatised now, right? I remember, when sailing the Caribbean in the early days of cell phones, BTC was the only carrier allowed to operate. Horrible service and astronomical prices. Monopolies are almost never a good thing.
PS... shoulda know u were a sailor... lol... have d done any diving in our waters?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21942
Quoting sar2401:


Yeah, BTC. I think it's been privatised now, right? I remember, when sailing the Caribbean in the early days of cell phones, BTC was the only carrier allowed to operate. Horrible service and astronomical prices. Monopolies are almost never a good thing.
They'd done a lot to improve that, though... put in a lot of new infrastructure etc... so the new guys got a totally revamped phone system, with trunking to Haiti, for practically nothing. And it's STILL a monopoly. Pple r up in arms because they look like they are phasing out the prepaid phones that are extremely popular here but have done nothing to improve service... and the system has suffered numerous island-wide service blackouts that have gone unexplained... basically I've seen no improvement in the service since the change, so I still am not quite sure what the big deal was all about. Everybody who was pro-privitization PROMISED service would be better and less costly, but no sign of that yet.

OTOH, I've not been using my phone in the Family Islands, so I don't know how much improvement we've had out there...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21942
How is this possible?

Member Since: July 12, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 383
Quoting SubtropicalHi:


Yeah!

41 days left of summer.

My summer is ending as we blog...boo hoo
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tribucanes:
wunderkidcayman must be thrilled. He's been saying TD07 would be making a comeback since they declassified it.


I've been saying it and... come on say it
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

was wrong about what again? :)

The models were showing zero development for TD7.
It's in the headlines. Dr. Masters' blog, NHC 2 p.m. Discussion...Kman has been pointing out its persistence.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
wunderkidcayman must be thrilled. He's been saying TD07 would be making a comeback since they declassified it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Way too many. I need to get a life. XD

No. This is your life. haha
Better go before I get banned.
Will have to check back later on 007.
Have a nice evening everyone.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:

This says KmanIslander was right and the models were wrong...ha!

was wrong about what again? :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
There are now 130 days until the 2012 Winter Solstice.


Yeah!

41 days left of summer.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tribucanes:
Thanks for that tidbit there Levi. Most interesting thing weather wise I've seen or read all day. :) Curious what the NHC will have to say about all this in their upcoming update.

This says KmanIslander was right and the models were wrong...ha!
Starting to feel better already.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks for that tidbit there Levi. Most interesting thing weather wise I've seen or read all day. :) Curious what the NHC will have to say about all this in their upcoming update.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
We're going to have to watch ex-TD 7 carefully by this Friday into next week as it slips into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. An upper trough digging into the southern U.S. will be setting up a weakness in the ridge there that could result in a fairly stagnant pattern where TD 7's remnants could fester and reorganize over the course of several days as the trough to the northeast takes its time in leaving the scene. Such a pattern with a tropical disturbance southwest of a mid-latitude trough axis can be favorable for development by supporting low-level convergence and ridging aloft. Model support right now is minimal, but the GFS is starting to drop hints of support for this scenario, and I wouldn't be surprised to see other models start to see this as a possibility.

In 7 days look at the favorable upper high over the western gulf due to the pattern caused by the digging trough to the northeast and the MJO coming trough:



This does make sense as speed shear occurs causing anti-cyclonic motion in the upper levels of the western gulf. Could have another scenario as with Debby with weak steering currents...will it get absorbed into the trough or get shoved in Texas...could be yet another tough forecast if that scenario comes to pass...GFS has been all over the place when it comes to track but something to watch nonetheless
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Sounds like interesting reading... I admit to reading absolutely nothing of value [besides, occasionally, posts in this blog... lol] while I've been on vacation thus far. I do have some interesting reading that I started earlier in the year before things got too hectic that I'll likely pick up later...


I'll be reading Fiscal Administration (Mikesell), Financial Management in the Public Sector, Performance Analysis for Pubic and Nonprofit Organizations and Research Methods for Public Administrators.
Obviously, this won't leave time for 'something you always wanted to know about everything.'
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Happy 20,000 comments TA13!

Way too many. I need to get a life. XD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SouthTampa:
I think I live 5 miles east of you (E end of Ulmerton, right by 275). We got close to 3" yesterday. Typical Florida storms, eh?


Unfortunately we are stuck in a pattern that means lots of heavy rain for everyone except the near coastline in most cases, I'm one of those places that is near the coastline. I've never had this little amount of rain at this point in August, it's so weird because we got absolutely slammed throughout June and July and ever since I've lived here you can count on August bringing even more than June and July. The patterns for rain throughout all of August so far have not favored this area, and it seems that when rain is around is it is avoiding us at all costs. I'm just glad we did have so much rain in June and July because this area is typically soaked in August but strangely not so far. I would imagine this strange trend has to end sooner or later.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
You can smile when you can't say a word;
You can smile though you cannot be heard;
You can smile when it's cloudy or fair;
You can smile anytime anywhere.


So I'm Pollyanna personified... sue me...

LOL
Though I gotta admit having A/C makes it that much easier....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21942
Quoting Chicklit:

Guess I'm having an 'off' day.
Would love to see the models wrong for a change.
Link Caribbean WV Loop


Got home, WU dropped ex-7? Doesn't look all that dead to me?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi Levi, the ECMWF on the 12z run has a developing system in the MDR.Are things going to be favorable there on the 22nd?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14226
ok update for 18Z maps

Shear
shear continues to decrease over EX-TD7. 30kt nearly non exsistent. 20kts is shrinking, becoming much better for the EX-TD.
shear tend. is droping.

vort at 925mb is good.
vort at 850mb is good.
vort at 700mb is good.
vort at 500mb is ok still need some work.

lower convergence is good.

steering shows a general W track, WNW-NW in the NW Caribbean, steering also starting to show more decrease in wind speeds, more so from 71W-72.5W/73W.
(before there was deeper redish orange. now has a lighter orange, more yellow, more so at the 72.5W mark, and now more greens and blues showing up in the NW caribbean, this change in colour indicates that the trades are falling, more so from 72.5W onwards. however it is still abit strong, but, if this trend continues, expect the trades fall to moderate to light by tomorrow evening.)

Dry air is becomeing less affective on the system as shear decreases on it, looking at WV shows the dry air moving away from the system as the system is now tring to expands it moisture field.

sattelite presentation it getting much better small blobs and spots of convection now coming together into one. I think by sunrise tomorrow with D-MAX should help, big time.



my thoughts
EX-TD 7 may get its act togeather earler than most people think, now that the evidence that the trades are droping plus the better conditions are become present. we maybe looking at redevelopment stage being earler than thought. maybe we may get a stronger storm in the Central-Western Caribbean to NW caribbean and GOM than previously thought. now ok before you all go gunhoe on me I'm waiting for more maps to come out before my confidence of what is happening rises pass the 50% mark
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Sheesh... like they need any more...

What, u mean BTC??? if so, I used to get better Sunday service on their days off... lol nobody wanted to get called in to deal w/ an emergency...


Yeah, BTC. I think it's been privatised now, right? I remember, when sailing the Caribbean in the early days of cell phones, BTC was the only carrier allowed to operate. Horrible service and astronomical prices. Monopolies are almost never a good thing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Winds gusting pretty strong here at Mayaguez, Puerto Rico.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Was it? Must have missed that.


You miss a lot of things.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi Kman, rooting for this one, especially after seeing how Ernesto just managed to dump rain.
Today I am tired of at least one of several computer models being right. According to the experts, none of them are developing the T-wave formerly known as 7.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TD 7 still lurks..







Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:
Thanks, Baha...am also in the middle of Bill Bryson's A Short History of Nearly Everything
(2003) Am determined to finish it before I get back to the work/school grind in about a week.

Sorry GA-Stormz about losing my cool earlier.
As I said, having an off day.
Fortunately, we are not seeing a large meteor headed toward earth so I will probably wake up tomorrow to a better one.
Sounds like interesting reading... I admit to reading absolutely nothing of value [besides, occasionally, posts in this blog... lol] while I've been on vacation thus far. I do have some interesting reading that I started earlier in the year before things got too hectic that I'll likely pick up later...

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21942
We're going to have to watch ex-TD 7 carefully by this Friday into next week as it slips into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. An upper trough digging into the southern U.S. will be setting up a weakness in the ridge there that could result in a fairly stagnant pattern where TD 7's remnants could fester and reorganize over the course of several days as the trough to the northeast takes its time in leaving the scene. Such a pattern with a tropical disturbance southwest of a mid-latitude trough axis can be favorable for development by supporting low-level convergence and ridging aloft. Model support right now is minimal, but the GFS is starting to drop hints of support for this scenario, and I wouldn't be surprised to see other models start to see this as a possibility.

In 7 days look at the favorable upper high over the western gulf due to the pattern caused by the digging trough to the northeast and the MJO coming trough:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
346. JLPR2
Might as well lurk in Weather chat to see what's going on in there. XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8669
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Was it? Must have missed that.


Happy 20,000 comments TA13!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


So, I was watching the San Fransisco game last night and the fans in the stands were wrapped in blankets and wearing coats. That was sooo strange. Just an observation... :)


"The coldest winter I ever spent was summer in San Francisco."

Googled it and this appears to be the most famous comment attributed to Mark Twain he never said.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Oscat pass : 4 hours ago

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
You can smile when you can't say a word;
You can smile though you cannot be heard;
You can smile when it's cloudy or fair;
You can smile anytime anywhere.


So I'm Pollyanna personified... sue me...

LOL
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21942
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


So, I was watching the San Fransisco game last night and the fans in the stands were wrapped in blankets and wearing coats. That was sooo strange. Just an observation... :)


LOL. I could always tell the tourists in San Francisco in August. They were the ones shivering in shorts and t-shirts while the locals were layered in fleece. I think it was Mark Twain who said "The coldest winter I ever spent was summer in San Francisco". :0 October, OTOH, tends to be glorious, and all the tourists are gone.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting redwagon:

Blue laws.
Ayup... shop close after 1 p.m......

LOL

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21942
Pink Floyd, arguably the greatest band ever. Their messages still resonate strongly.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
338. JLPR2
Quoting MississippiWx:


Ahhh...smooth.


XD

But seriously that one is a problem, the l and i are displayed in the same way by WU's font. :\
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8669
Thanks, Baha...am also in the middle of Bill Bryson's A Short History of Nearly Everything
(2003) Am determined to finish it before I get back to the work/school grind in about a week.

Sorry GA-Stormz about losing my cool earlier.
As I said, having an off day.
Fortunately, we are not seeing a large meteor headed toward earth so I will probably wake up tomorrow to a better one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Maybe 93L going up to cat 1


As long as it recurves, as most models suggest, it can be a cat 5 for all I care.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
One for the wu-server in San Fran, before its gobbled up by TWC one in Atlanta


So, I was watching the San Fransisco game last night and the fans in the stands were wrapped in blankets and wearing coats. That was sooo strange. Just an observation... :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
one of the 12Z at 384HR
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
To clarify, I love America. This is still easily the greatest country in the world to live in. Many kids are bright, respectful, and don't follow the trends that are everywhere leading to the before mentioned decline. As a whole though, that's not the case, moral and mental decline is measurable and glaringly obvious. If this mental and moral decline was charted, we'd see it is increasing not declining. If I charted out this decline for the next twenty years; we would no longer be the greatest country in the world. This is not my opinion, this is a fact. What took generations to build here in the US will be lost in a generation if some dramatic shift of conscience doesn't occur. Always good to see the alligator before you step on it. Time to look, the alligator is right in front of us. Okay, I'm really done on the subject. I just feel very very strongly on the issue.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:


Found it, using an I instead of an L in TropicalAnaIystwx13.

I wonder who is the looser that keeps making those? XD


Ahhh...smooth.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
One for the wu-server in San Fran, before its gobbled up by TWC one in Atlanta


Pat, sorry, but that's the worst version of one of the worst songs ever made. In addition, the "Summer of Love" was anything but.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 381 - 331

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
76 °F
Mostly Cloudy