Remains of TD 7 kill two in Trinidad; 93L too dry to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:31 PM GMT on August 12, 2012

Share this Blog
35
+

The remains of Tropical Depression Seven brought heavy rains to Trinidad on Saturday, unleashing flooding and mudslides that killed two people and left two others missing in Diego Martin. The storm is headed westward at 20 mph across the Caribbean, but high wind shear of 15 - 25 knots should prevent the system from regenerating. None of the reliable models forecasts that TD 7 will regenerate, and the storm should arrive in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-TD 7 a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.


Figure 1. An analysis of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) from 8 am EDT August 12, 2012. Very dry air from the Sahara (yellow and orange colors) surrounds the tropical wave designated 93L in the Central Atlantic. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS and NOAA/Hurricane Research Division.

93L
A large tropical wave(Invest 93L) is located in the Central Atlantic about 700 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show a pronounced spin to the atmosphere at mid levels, but little in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis from the University of Wisconsin shows that 93L is surrounded by a large area of dry air from the Sahara, which has infiltrated into the storm. This dry air will be a significant impediment to development, as the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that mid-levels of the atmosphere will remain very dry during the next four days. None of the reliable computer models develop 93L during the coming five days, and the storm is expected to move west-northwest and then north, recurving well to the east of Bermuda. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model is predicting 93L will develop into a tropical depression in about a week, once the storm recurves and begins heading northeast. At this point, it does not appear 93L will trouble any land areas.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 431 - 381

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

Quoting thelmores:
All of the "non-weather" related banter really detracts from this blog.... My wish personally is to see it ALL disappear!

There are so many site's you can go to to express your belief's and political affiliation...... a weather blog in my opinion IS NOT the place.....

Just my $0.02!




thank you


if you guys want too talk political plzs take it too the weather chat
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
Quoting LargoFl:
Finally, after a very dry and HOT week I am right now getting a rain shower..not hard rain BUT..any rain at all right now is welcome..funny how the weather is..it can be pouring a block away and none by my house..but today, i finally got a nice shower, I am a happy camper now lol
This is how I look at, if it doesn't rain by my house that is fine, but if it doesn't rain by a farmer who has a lot of agriculture then that is bad. The interior of the state needs it more than the coastline. I agree though a rain shower to cool things off is always a welcome sign. No complaints either way.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
GUYS "wunderkidcayma" is back, don't click any links he posts! You have been warned!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Finally, after a very dry and HOT week I am right now getting a rain shower..not hard rain BUT..any rain at all right now is welcome..funny how the weather is..it can be pouring a block away and none by my house..but today, i finally got a nice shower, I am a happy camper now lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
..well local met just said 7x doesnt stand much of a chance, its an open wave and will probably stay that way, saw one model putting it into mexico after crossing the yucatan like ernesto..we'll see...so far it doesnt look like any threat to the usa..the tropics/atlantic side is kinda quiet now..thats good, we need a break huh lol



I agree.. I'm just disputing wonderkid's claims that ex TD-7 is on its way to regeneration or regeneration in the central caribbean..he pointed out what I quoted about 65-66W yesterday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
no not dancing yet yes I know its been decleared dead and has 10% chance of redevelopment at 2pm today but conditions are not as hostile as before and is getting better and better and it may still be a zombie wave but it is starting to show life
Actually, things are looking worse, quite a bit worse. That TUTT that KMan posted is presently snuffing it out just as it helped ventilate it last night.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tribucanes:
Pink Floyd, arguably the greatest band ever. Their messages still resonate strongly.


Evening All.

Still gotta crank the radio every time a song comes on. Funny, it's one of the few bands that I know most every word to every song. Just heard "Hey You" on the way home. "Learning To Fly" is my all time favorite however.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormpetrol:
Ex-TD7 is going become Gordon in the western Caribbean, it is organizing once again. BTW someone just found a good friend of the family dead on board of his boat, so I'll probably be out for the evening, don't feel like commenting too much this evening!


yep I agree with you


oh here on islands
well I hope you can tell me more about that before Cayman27 gets there hands on the news

but yeah relly sorry to here about your friend
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think WKC's impostor will be back on the blog soon...he's in chat...just go ahead and put him on ignore.

"wunderkidcayma"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormpetrol:
Ex-TD7 is going become Gordon in the western Caribbean, it is organizing once again. BTW someone just found a good friend of the family dead on board of his boat, so I'll probably be out for the evening, don't feel like commenting too much this evening!


Sorry to hear that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:



Hurricane Camille in the Gulf of Mexico



Ships beached in Gulfport, Mississippi.



A large, antebellum mansion destroyed by the high winds and storm surge.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GPTGUY:



here ya go baha:

596. wunderkidcayman 6:40 PM CDT on August 11, 2012 +0
I think that for EX-TD 7 will or should I say could really get restarted once it hits the 65-66W line
..well local met just said 7x doesnt stand much of a chance, its an open wave and will probably stay that way, saw one model putting it into mexico after crossing the yucatan like ernesto..we'll see...so far it doesnt look like any threat to the usa..the tropics/atlantic side is kinda quiet now..thats good, we need a break huh lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
All of the "non-weather" related banter really detracts from this blog.... My wish personally is to see it ALL disappear!

There are so many site's you can go to to express your belief's and political affiliation...... a weather blog in my opinion IS NOT the place.....

Just my $0.02!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting lovemamatus:
I see this on the same track as Camille....who only had 60 mph winds when it brushed Cuba. You put a persistant tropical storm in that area, and Wednesday night you will see explosive development.

Flo will be a major in the Gulf. Everyone should cancel their plans for next weekend, because we will have on hands full.

Already had flo
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Actually he has been saying closer to JA for quite a while... and NOT talking about it regenerating S of PR...

400. BahaHurican 5:09 PM EDT on August 12, 2012
This is getting to be redikilus...

thank you

Quoting CosmicEvents:
Don't start doing a victory dance quite yet.
It's been declared dead with a 10% chance of digging it's way up through 6 ft.
It's still nothing more than a zombie wave under hostile conditions.


no not dancing yet yes I know its been decleared dead and has 10% chance of redevelopment at 2pm today but conditions are not as hostile as before and is getting better and better and it may still be a zombie wave but it is starting to show life

Quoting stormpetrol:


1009.4mb
hmm odd anyway what ever
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:
Hi Kman, rooting for this one, especially after seeing how Ernesto just managed to dump rain.
Today I am tired of at least one of several computer models being right. According to the experts, none of them are developing the T-wave formerly known as 7.


Hi there, took a break to watch the PGA Championship.

Looks like the wave is fanning out some but the TUTT that is retrograding to the West is still throwing up high shear values ahead of it.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ex-TD 7 holding its own, despite the dry air:

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting BahaHurican:
Actually he has been saying closer to JA for quite a while... and NOT talking about it regenerating S of PR...

400. BahaHurican 5:09 PM EDT on August 12, 2012
This is getting to be redikilus...



here ya go baha:

596. wunderkidcayman 6:40 PM CDT on August 11, 2012 +0
I think that for EX-TD 7 will or should I say could really get restarted once it hits the 65-66W line
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ex-TD7 is going become Gordon in the western Caribbean, it is organizing once again. BTW someone just found a good friend of the family dead on board of his boat, so I'll probably be out for the evening, don't feel like commenting too much this evening!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:



Link


lots of rain overnight from the remnants of td7 causing quite a bit of damage on the island of Dominica. landslides, flooding and wind damage to crops on the east coast of the island.

and by the looks of this radar, there is more rain1 to come

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting lovemamatus:
I see this on the same track as Camille....who only had 60 mph winds when it brushed Cuba. You put a persistant tropical storm in that area, and Wednesday night you will see explosive development.

Flo will be a major in the Gulf. Everyone should cancel their plans for next weekend, because we will have on hands full.

Screencapped for future reference.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 60 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 13.6 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 17.5 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 5.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.6 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ENE ( 75 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.81 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.05 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.6 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.4 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 75.7 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 90.1 °F
Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 15.5 kts
Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 15.5 kts
Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jedkins01:


Unfortunately we are stuck in a pattern that means lots of heavy rain for everyone except the near coastline in most cases, I'm one of those places that is near the coastline. I've never had this little amount of rain at this point in August, it's so weird because we got absolutely slammed throughout June and July and ever since I've lived here you can count on August bringing even more than June and July. The patterns for rain throughout all of August so far have not favored this area, and it seems that when rain is around is it is avoiding us at all costs. I'm just glad we did have so much rain in June and July because this area is typically soaked in August but strangely not so far. I would imagine this strange trend has to end sooner or later.
I hate to say it, but could be a sign of something big down the road, if you think this pattern is abnormal.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting GPTGUY:



You lose..If I recall you said regeneration would occur south of Puerto Rico? well it's still a tropical wave the NHC gives it only a 10% chance of redevelopment and looking at WV loops dry air is all over the central caribbean and it still looks to be getting sheared a bit as cloud tops seem to be blowing NE...if ANY regeneration occurs it would be in the NW caribbean or southern GOM. I admire your persistance though

well well well here we go again
late last night and this morning and today I said it will start to make a comeback and start up near 71W-73W
yes NHC give it 10% now or (at 2pm today)

looking at WV dry air is dying out infront of the system and it is not getting sheared as much as it been since it was degenerated till mid-morning this morning yes there is still a bit of shear but I would not say there is enought to stop redevelopment the shear that is there now is more like helping with outflow so thats why you see the NE shearing look

Member Since: Posts: Comments:


1009.4mb
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I knew it lol I tell you it happens to me alot eveyone call a system dead or doing something I see it doing else I strongly think it will I having to be persistent everyone says I'm hypecasting or wishcasting with what I am saying and the bam it does it and I win hmm well I guess it one more for my leaderboard lol
Don't start doing a victory dance quite yet.
It's been declared dead with a 10% chance of digging it's way up through 6 ft.
It's still nothing more than a zombie wave under hostile conditions.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
thank you bluestorm5-
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good baha just have little time to post on a blog.Two kids with activities,full time job and 21 acres of grass to mow and keep up weekly.Wish i had the time to spend daily on the blog like a lot of these posters, lol.I guess thier mostly teens.You know though when I was thier age chasing bikinis and fishing.Times change.By the way going on a cruise to Nassau,st Marten And ST.Thomas in December.I lost the trip plan I wanted to go to Niagra Falls.Beaches sand and water get old lol.When I retire thank I will move to Alaska and I assure you I will spend no time on a computer.UGGH guess I am sick of summers here and heat lol.Anyway BaHa God Bless and good day.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GPTGUY:



You lose..If I recall you said regeneration would occur south of Puerto Rico? well it's still a tropical wave the NHC gives it only a 10% chance of redevelopment and looking at WV loops dry air is all over the central caribbean and it still looks to be getting sheared a bit as cloud tops seem to be blowing NE...if ANY regeneration occurs it would be in the NW caribbean or southern GOM. I admire your persistance though
Actually he has been saying closer to JA for quite a while... and NOT talking about it regenerating S of PR...

400. BahaHurican 5:09 PM EDT on August 12, 2012
This is getting to be redikilus...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PedleyCA:


Who is your provider?
Our local company is Cable and Wireless.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I knew it lol I tell you it happens to me alot eveyone call a system dead or doing something I see it doing else I strongly think it will I having to be persistent everyone says I'm hypecasting or wishcasting with what I am saying and the bam it does it and I win hmm well I guess it one more for my leaderboard lol



You lose..If I recall you said regeneration would occur south of Puerto Rico? well it's still a tropical wave the NHC gives it only a 10% chance of redevelopment and looking at WV loops dry air is all over the central caribbean and it still looks to be getting sheared a bit as cloud tops seem to be blowing NE...if ANY regeneration occurs it would be in the NW caribbean or southern GOM. I admire your persistance though
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well, sometimes you just have to let it go... if it's dead, well, it's dead. But it's also important to make sure it's not just drugged or holding its breath....

LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Why is my internet always this lousy on Sunday afternoons???


Who is your provider?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aquak9:
The last time Doc declared a system dead:

Update on remains of TD 10
Posted by: JeffMasters, 3:40 PM EDT on August 22, 2005 +0

I've been reluctant to pay much heed to the remains of TD 10 after declaring the system dead forever


well I think we all know what happened. Ya woulda thought the good Dr would've learned a lesson- never ever EVER call a system dead.
Yup... TD10 became TD 12. TD 12 became Tropical Storm heading for Flordia named............. Katrina. TS Katrina went on to be a major hurricane Katrina, killing 2000 people and destroyed Louisiana and Mississippi.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Before they declassified it... lol

Just hope the outcome isn't similar!




yeah well I did not see it degenerating at first but laterone I saw it and the I still said it will make a comeback
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:
Already past my longitude, looks like no squally weather for me...



Yeah,last night I thought we would get some today but nada.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14921
Quoting icmoore:


What? The first post I see is this! I guess I better get busy reading back!


Didn't have to read very far back LOL!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aquak9:
The last time Doc declared a system dead:

Update on remains of TD 10
Posted by: JeffMasters, 3:40 PM EDT on August 22, 2005 +0

I've been reluctant to pay much heed to the remains of TD 10 after declaring the system dead forever


well I think we all know what happened. Ya woulda thought the good Dr would've learned a lesson- never ever EVER call a system dead.

I meant under 'tropical weather' ex-7 isn't listed. Which doesn't mean Dr. Jeff de-listed it, but maybe the NHC did and WU software is not getting any info about ex-7.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3280
391. JLPR2
Already past my longitude, looks like no squally weather for me...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tribucanes:
You well may be RIGHT wonderkidcayman! There I said it. :)


What? The first post I see is this! I guess I better get busy reading back!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tribucanes:
You well may be RIGHT wonderkidcayman! There I said it. :)

I knew it lol I tell you it happens to me alot eveyone call a system dead or doing something I see it doing else I strongly think it will I having to be persistent everyone says I'm hypecasting or wishcasting with what I am saying and the bam it does it and I win hmm well I guess it one more for my leaderboard lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
Yeah that was some cold front that came through south MS.We got down to 75 degrees for lows and in the 90/s now.According to WU local thats about what we will get out of this artic outbreak this weekend.Hey pat hope you did not freeze with this last front lol.Through pushing in to central gulf this time year?Priceless.Only time i ever seen that it turned charlie ENE into south Florida, not striaght to Mexico.Dont freeze at the dome friday night Pat.
Hey, FAN... howareya doing? Besides cold...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting redwagon:

What's wrong with wx obs as a daily hobby - weather IS daily - and that's what Edison did for years on end, so we're in good company.

I'd rather learn than let the mainstream media try to un-learn me with their crap. It isn't even edu-crap anymore, just crap.


+1000
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I never said it would one way or another. Interesting to see if the NHC today mentions that very real possibility that Levi mentioned.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yeah that was some cold front that came through south MS.We got down to 75 degrees for lows and in the 90/s now.According to WU local thats about what we will get out of this artic outbreak this weekend.Hey pat hope you did not freeze with this last front lol.Through pushing in to central gulf this time year?Priceless.Only time i ever seen that it turned charlie ENE into south Florida, not striaght to Mexico.Dont freeze at the dome friday night Pat.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:

My summer is ending as we blog...boo hoo


Sorry.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Way too many. I need to get a life. XD

What's wrong with wx obs as a daily hobby - weather IS daily - and that's what Edison did for years on end, so we're in good company.

I'd rather learn than let the mainstream media try to un-learn me with their crap. It isn't even edu-crap anymore, just crap.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3280
Quoting Tribucanes:
wunderkidcayman must be thrilled. He's been saying TD07 would be making a comeback since they declassified it.
Before they declassified it... lol

Quoting aquak9:
The last time Doc declared a system dead:

Update on remains of TD 10
Posted by: JeffMasters, 3:40 PM EDT on August 22, 2005 +0

I've been reluctant to pay much heed to the remains of TD 10 after declaring the system dead forever


well I think we all know what happened. Ya woulda thought the good Dr would've learned a lesson- never ever EVER call a system dead.
Just hope the outcome isn't similar!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
You well may be RIGHT wonderkidcayman! There I said it. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 431 - 381

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron