Remains of TD 7 kill two in Trinidad; 93L too dry to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:31 PM GMT on August 12, 2012

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The remains of Tropical Depression Seven brought heavy rains to Trinidad on Saturday, unleashing flooding and mudslides that killed two people and left two others missing in Diego Martin. The storm is headed westward at 20 mph across the Caribbean, but high wind shear of 15 - 25 knots should prevent the system from regenerating. None of the reliable models forecasts that TD 7 will regenerate, and the storm should arrive in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-TD 7 a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.


Figure 1. An analysis of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) from 8 am EDT August 12, 2012. Very dry air from the Sahara (yellow and orange colors) surrounds the tropical wave designated 93L in the Central Atlantic. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS and NOAA/Hurricane Research Division.

93L
A large tropical wave(Invest 93L) is located in the Central Atlantic about 700 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show a pronounced spin to the atmosphere at mid levels, but little in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis from the University of Wisconsin shows that 93L is surrounded by a large area of dry air from the Sahara, which has infiltrated into the storm. This dry air will be a significant impediment to development, as the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that mid-levels of the atmosphere will remain very dry during the next four days. None of the reliable computer models develop 93L during the coming five days, and the storm is expected to move west-northwest and then north, recurving well to the east of Bermuda. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model is predicting 93L will develop into a tropical depression in about a week, once the storm recurves and begins heading northeast. At this point, it does not appear 93L will trouble any land areas.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
quick update for 21Z conditions via 21Z maps

shear still decreasing

vort at 850mb good
vort at 700mb good
vort at 500mb a little better still need a bit of work

lower convergence is growing

steering continues to show speed values droping from 71W onwards movements say W till S of Jamaica then its WNW-NW movement



is there a point you keep saying that evere update?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114792
Quoting ncstorm:


the trolls have always been here..way before TWC..its easy, ignore it and move on..dont engage in conversations..dont try to push its buttons..ignore it..the site even warns you about links as well before you even click it..I dont have any problems..


Fair enough. I realize those points, but a lot of people do not heed them.

I guess technically this is not a "forum". This is a blog site where everyone of us can create his or her own blog. Technically nothing is making all of us post in Dr. Masters' blog.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10160
Quoting Tazmanian:



lol ok


i be your moderators/admin


Just recalling the conversation when Angela posted an update a few days ago. :-)
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Quoting washingtonian115:
We need more admin..but no bloggers as moderators.Only going to cause problems..


I feel thats why people are complaining because they want this..that would be a terrible idea to have bloggers become moderators..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14674
Quoting kmanislander:


I was kidding about Taz. LOL



lol ok


i be your moderators/admin
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114792
quick update for 21Z conditions via 21Z maps

shear still decreasing

vort at 850mb good
vort at 700mb good
vort at 500mb a little better still need a bit of work

lower convergence is growing

steering continues to show speed values droping from 71W onwards movements say W till S of Jamaica then its WNW-NW movement
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11277
Quoting ncstorm:


the trolls have always been here..way before TWC..its easy, ignore it and move on..dont engage in conversations..dont try to push its buttons..ignore it..the site even warns you about links as well before you even click it..I dont have any problems..


Flag, ignore and move on.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
We need more admin..but no bloggers as moderators.Only going to cause problems..


I was kidding about Taz. LOL
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Quoting MississippiWx:


What is Dr. Masters going to do? Ban him? We've seen what banning really accomplishes. Also, if Dr. Masters banned TA for demanding that he make his site better for the users, that would be a fairly weak move.

The users have a voice, believe it or not. I pay WU the small yearly fee because I enjoy the services. However, if more moderation is not shown on the blog, I will not renew next year. A company that has just merged with TWC should be able to afford moderation.


the trolls have always been here..way before TWC..its easy, ignore it and move on..dont engage in conversations..dont try to push its buttons..ignore it..the site even warns you about links as well before you even click it..I dont have any problems..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14674
We need more admin..but no bloggers as moderators.Only going to cause problems..
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16456
Quoting GPTGUY:
wunderkidcayman:

yeah that was yesterday evening but from last night and this morning till now I was and am saying near 71W-72.5W
so yeah forecast change from time to time as they get up to date information


like I said before




and you will change it again as it approaches 71w-72.5w as a tropical wave


It is already at or very close to those coordinates.
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90 hours
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14674
Quoting ncstorm:
18z GFS-78 hours
Once 93L get's out of that dry environment and with cooler sst it may have a chance.It came off to far north.I'm sure if it didn't we would certainly be talking about a storm now.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16456
454. wunderkidcayman 4:54 PM EST on August 12, 2012

Shear immediately over and in front of the wave is a high 30 knots. The low shear near 75 W is being produced by the base of the TUTT and tropical systems do not do well under a TUTT even if it could catch that retrograding feature which is moving West quite quickly. What ex 7 needs is an upper high and it is not there at this time.
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Quoting fldude99:


Now, hopefully the GOM stays quiet and we're done with anything to do with the H word for 2012
..as long as that HIGH sits in the gulf I think we are safe ..yesterday the guys were posting models from 240 hours and out..about something going In the gulf..but i dont listen to models That far out..lots can change,day to day
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37144
Quoting CANTBELIEVEIT:
The atlantic is done for the year i said that 5 weeks ago


More people saying the season is done... we still have a month to go until the peak, small periods of inactivity are common. Also, how could you even say that the season is done in early July??
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Quoting ncstorm:


a lot of good people have already left..Ive been here long enough to know not to click on links and not engage with trolls but some people on here just cant help themselves and want to quote and keep quoting and then get mad when the trolls are not put off the blog ..if you ignore it, it will go away..also, I wouldnt be giving Dr. Masters directives..



What is Dr. Masters going to do? Ban him? We've seen what banning really accomplishes. Also, if Dr. Masters banned TA for demanding that he make his site better for the users, that would be a fairly weak move.

The users have a voice, believe it or not. I pay WU the small yearly fee because I enjoy the services. However, if more moderation is not shown on the blog, I will not renew next year. A company that has just merged with TWC should be able to afford moderation.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10160
wunderkidcayman:

yeah that was yesterday evening but from last night and this morning till now I was and am saying near 71W-72.5W
so yeah forecast change from time to time as they get up to date information

and you will change it again as it approaches 71w-72.5w as a tropical wave
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....this area near Dallas is getting warnings, stay safe over there
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37144
Quoting CANTBELIEVEIT:
The atlantic is done for the year i said that 5 weeks ago


Now, hopefully the GOM stays quiet and we're done with anything to do with the H word for 2012
Member Since: July 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 574
18z GFS-78 hours
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14674
I imagine this may not be a tropical cyclone too much longer.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31608
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm really love this site, but even I'm starting to get annoyed with the lack of moderation here. The trolls are impersonating good bloggers, giving users viruses, and disrupting the weather conservation we have on here.

This is directed at Jeff Masters and the admins: Either find a way to get more moderation, or a lot of good people are leaving.


a lot of good people have already left..Ive been here long enough to know not to click on links and not engage with trolls but some people on here just cant help themselves and want to quote and keep quoting and then get mad when the trolls are not put off the blog ..if you ignore it, it will go away..also, I wouldnt be giving Dr. Masters directives..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14674
Quoting Grothar:
I guess I'll stop posting these like I have since last night. I guess not much interest in it. I think I will go take a nap.

..lots of rain down there, hope the guy on one of those islands this last week who needed rain badly, got some out of this blob
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37144
Quoting Grothar:
I guess I'll stop posting these like I have since last night. I guess not much interest in it. I think I will go take a nap.



Not much interest when there's not much to pay attention to. Hope it stays that way to the autumn
Member Since: July 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 574
Quoting GPTGUY:



here ya go baha:

596. wunderkidcayman 6:40 PM CDT on August 11, 2012 +0
I think that for EX-TD 7 will or should I say could really get restarted once it hits the 65-66W line

yeah that was yesterday evening but from last night and this morning till now I was and am saying near 71W-72.5W
so yeah forecast change from time to time as they get up to date information

Quoting GTcooliebai:
Ex-TD 7 holding its own, despite the dry air:


like I said before

Quoting kmanislander:


Hi there, took a break to watch the PGA Championship.

Looks like the wave is fanning out some but the TUTT that is retrograding to the West is still throwing up high shear values ahead of it.


how-ever true or not that may be the shear strength values (KTS) continue to drop on and in front of the system

Quoting LargoFl:
..well local met just said 7x doesnt stand much of a chance, its an open wave and will probably stay that way, saw one model putting it into mexico after crossing the yucatan like ernesto..we'll see...so far it doesnt look like any threat to the usa..the tropics/atlantic side is kinda quiet now..thats good, we need a break huh lol


yeah well your local met may change his mind soon


Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think WKC's impostor will be back on the blog soon...he's in chat...just go ahead and put him on ignore.

"wunderkidcayma"


oh boy thank you so much for reminding me of him I hate that idiot

well let me give you guys a heads up if anything comes up with profound things (Porn...etc...) flag it and ignore it and it is not me posting it but an imposter
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11277
Quoting Grothar:
I guess I'll stop posting these like I have since last night. I guess not much interest in it. I think I will go take a nap.



The problem Gro is that ex 7 is not going to do much of anything other than produce showers and gusty winds for the near term and possibly longer. As I have posted numerous times over the years, weak waves passing through the Eastern Caribbean just sort of hang on until 75 to 80 W and beyond where conditions are usually climatologically favourable.

If the TUTT does not get out of the way the chances for this wave to really reorganise will remain low.
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poor 93L i think 93L went tool high
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114792
Annnnd..another poof... Let's hang in for a few more weeks..Hopefully the el Nino settles in and we can stop paying attention to the Atlantic and get on with life.
Member Since: July 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 574
I guess I'll stop posting these like I have since last night. I guess not much interest in it. I think I will go take a nap.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm really love this site, but even I'm starting to get annoyed with the lack of moderation here. The trolls are impersonating good bloggers, giving users viruses, and disrupting the weather conservation we have on here.

This is directed at Jeff Masters and the admins: Either find a way to get more moderation, or I'm leaving.
I really love the site and the people on here and y'all make me feel like I belong here... but the increase in trolls and lack of actions from admins is making me frustrated. Please do something, Dr. Masters.
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445. Mikla
Link?
Quoting STXHurricanes2012:
Oh it has model support alright lol
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Oh it has model support alright lol
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm really love this site, but even I'm starting to get annoyed with the lack of moderation here. The trolls are impersonating good bloggers, giving users viruses, and disrupting the weather conservation we have on here.

This is directed at Jeff Masters and the admins: Either find a way to get more moderation, or I'm leaving.


Taz applied for the moderator role :-)
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ex td 7 really wants to make a comeback and become Gordon could he?I am not sure right now maybe in two days from now.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4105
441. Mikla
Guess I am not seeing what some folks are that think ex TD7 will reform...

- 14:30Z ASCAT shows no circulation
- LOTS of dry air in front
- Moving too fast
- Shear is letting up, but a little too late
- Time is not on its side... it will encounter land within the next two days.
- No real model support
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Quoting MississippiWx:


If I didn't like a lot of people on this blog, I would have been gone a long time ago. Really difficult to sift through garbage on here a lot of the time. A couple of other sites I use are moderated heavily and this kind of garbage doesn't happen.

I'm really love this site, but even I'm starting to get annoyed with the lack of moderation here. The trolls are impersonating good bloggers, giving users viruses, and disrupting the weather conservation we have on here.

This is directed at Jeff Masters and the admins: Either find a way to get more moderation, or a lot of good people are leaving.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31608
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37144
Quoting Felix2007:
GUYS "wunderkidcayma" is back, don't click any links he posts! You have been warned!

Got him thanks for reminding us.
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Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
Good baha just have little time to post on a blog.Two kids with activities,full time job and 21 acres of grass to mow and keep up weekly.Wish i had the time to spend daily on the blog like a lot of these posters, lol.I guess thier mostly teens.You know though when I was thier age chasing bikinis and fishing.Times change.By the way going on a cruise to Nassau,st Marten And ST.Thomas in December.I lost the trip plan I wanted to go to Niagra Falls.Beaches sand and water get old lol.When I retire thank I will move to Alaska and I assure you I will spend no time on a computer.UGGH guess I am sick of summers here and heat lol.Anyway BaHa God Bless and good day.
Yeah.. I know the feeling... still spend more time here than I prolly should... and taking a couple weeks off to just veg.

Let me know a bit closer to the time when u will be here....
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436. SLU
Quoting java162:



Link


lots of rain overnight from the remnants of td7 causing quite a bit of damage on the island of Dominica. landslides, flooding and wind damage to crops on the east coast of the island.

and by the looks of this radar, there is more rain1 to come



Thanks .. keep us posted.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

How he is not banned after last night is beyond me...


If I didn't like a lot of people on this blog, I would have been gone a long time ago. Really difficult to sift through garbage on here a lot of the time. A couple of other sites I use are moderated heavily and this kind of garbage doesn't happen.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10160
well i just saw 4 weather warnings for texas, so it looks like THEY also are getting rain today, one of them said earlier they really need some rain badly there.........
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
431 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
COOKE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN DENTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN MONTAGUE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN WISE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 431 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES
SOUTH OF FORESTBURG...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
MUENSTER AROUND 455 PM...
LINDSAY AROUND 520 PM...
KRUM AND GAINESVILLE AROUND 530 PM...
SANGER AROUND 535 PM...
RAY ROBERTS PARK JOHNSON BRANCH AROUND 545 PM...

THIS WILL IMPACT I-35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 477 AND 484.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO A STURDY SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A STRONG BUILDING AND
STAY INSIDE...AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.



LAT...LON 3377 9718 3374 9717 3372 9711 3374 9709
3373 9706 3334 9701 3315 9729 3334 9769
3383 9744 3383 9736
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 280DEG 18KT 3345 9756



85/NH
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37144
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Actually, things are looking worse, quite a bit worse. That TUTT that KMan posted is presently snuffing it out just as it helped ventilate it last night.


The base of the TUTT can be seen very clearly at 15 N and 75 W. The axis extends all to the way to the NE and the ULL situated near 28 N and 59 W.

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Quoting Felix2007:
GUYS "wunderkidcayma" is back, don't click any links he posts! You have been warned!

How he is not banned after last night is beyond me...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31608
Quoting thelmores:
All of the "non-weather" related banter really detracts from this blog.... My wish personally is to see it ALL disappear!

There are so many site's you can go to to express your belief's and political affiliation...... a weather blog in my opinion IS NOT the place.....

Just my $0.02!




thank you


if you guys want too talk political plzs take it too the weather chat
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114792

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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