Remains of TD 7 kill two in Trinidad; 93L too dry to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:31 PM GMT on August 12, 2012

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The remains of Tropical Depression Seven brought heavy rains to Trinidad on Saturday, unleashing flooding and mudslides that killed two people and left two others missing in Diego Martin. The storm is headed westward at 20 mph across the Caribbean, but high wind shear of 15 - 25 knots should prevent the system from regenerating. None of the reliable models forecasts that TD 7 will regenerate, and the storm should arrive in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-TD 7 a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.


Figure 1. An analysis of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) from 8 am EDT August 12, 2012. Very dry air from the Sahara (yellow and orange colors) surrounds the tropical wave designated 93L in the Central Atlantic. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS and NOAA/Hurricane Research Division.

93L
A large tropical wave(Invest 93L) is located in the Central Atlantic about 700 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show a pronounced spin to the atmosphere at mid levels, but little in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis from the University of Wisconsin shows that 93L is surrounded by a large area of dry air from the Sahara, which has infiltrated into the storm. This dry air will be a significant impediment to development, as the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that mid-levels of the atmosphere will remain very dry during the next four days. None of the reliable computer models develop 93L during the coming five days, and the storm is expected to move west-northwest and then north, recurving well to the east of Bermuda. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model is predicting 93L will develop into a tropical depression in about a week, once the storm recurves and begins heading northeast. At this point, it does not appear 93L will trouble any land areas.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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531. washingtonian115
10:37 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
I find it quite interesting that both the Euro and GFS show a very active wave train coming up all though at different times.Thanks to yours truly the MJO..A strong pulse should be over Africa helping the waves become more robust.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
530. LargoFl
10:37 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
We need more admin..but no bloggers as moderators.Only going to cause problems..
well right now, I post many things on many weather topics, not just tropical and climate change which IS..the topic of this blog...stern moderation would stifle this blog in a very short time, be a little careful what you wish for or we may not even be able to talk about normal weather events, ive seen that happen in another weather blog i used to post in years ago...doc has this set up nicely,I am sure he does lurk and if he see's a REAL problem he will step in and fix it..meanwhile you know his nic's..avoid them and keep going on
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38474
529. Tropicsweatherpr
10:36 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
GFS has no hint of that storm the Euro showed today:



Yep,no consensus so far. Let's see in next runs what happens.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14253
528. JLPR2
10:35 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
As I am bored and not that interested in seeing Ex-TD 7 struggle I will go on to read Dr. Masters's entries for 2005. :P

See you all later.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8691
527. MAweatherboy1
10:34 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
GFS has no hint of that storm the Euro showed today:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7779
526. bappit
10:34 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Quoting RitaEvac:
Check out the outflow boundary push SE near the NWS, hold steady, then push back with seabreeze


Cool pics. Thanks!
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6022
525. mitthbevnuruodo
10:33 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
..as long as that HIGH sits in the gulf I think we are safe ..yesterday the guys were posting models from 240 hours and out..about something going In the gulf..but i dont listen to models That far out..lots can change,day to day


Those long term models don't seem very accurate ever really. They're fine for looking at 'possibilities', but I think that's all they are, 'possibilities'.
5 days on is a long time for ANY weather forecast, and even more-so for tropics. They're fun to look at and wonder, but nothing more...IMHO!
Member Since: October 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 842
524. nigel20
10:33 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Quoting allancalderini:
IMO ex td 7 should be up to 20%.

Hey allan! How have you been?
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8026
523. allancalderini
10:33 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Around 200, I believe. And the only difference when you pay is that you get 40 frame radar and no ads. There are free ad blockers already out there, though..
Thanks and 200 OMG must of the one that I have are Jason accounts.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4312
522. ncstorm
10:32 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
174 hours
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15286
521. GeoffreyWPB
10:31 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11151
520. washingtonian115
10:31 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
I do think eventually ex T.D 7 will eventually regenerate as the GFS has been showing.the environment in the BOC/Gulf does seem favorable for that to happen with pip'in hot sst.I'm not going to predict where the storm will go.It could go north into Texas or into Mexico(more than likely.)
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
519. GeoffreyWPB
10:31 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
I love it when you lose power and have to wait for DIRECTV to reboot.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11151
518. allancalderini
10:30 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Quoting nigel20:
IMO ex td 7 should be up to 20%.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4312
517. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:30 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Quoting allancalderini:
question. what are the beneficial things of upgrading my account?I have a free membership but I want to change it so is there any difference when I upgrade it? btw how many people you have in ignore because right now I have 10 and I think that a lot I can`t imagine the ones that have been long time in here?

Around 200, I believe. And the only difference when you pay is that you get 40 frame radar and no ads. There are free ad blockers already out there, though..
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32025
516. allancalderini
10:29 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Quoting JLPR2:


Ehh... That might be pushing it a little. XD

maybe XD
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4312
515. LargoFl
10:29 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Quoting redwagon:
I wonder if its the high temps? around by me its 90 degree's
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38474
514. allancalderini
10:29 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
well i have heard you dont see the ads any more
thanks.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4312
513. nigel20
10:28 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8026
512. nigel20
10:27 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Thanks Dr Masters...good afternoon everyone!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8026
511. LargoFl
10:26 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Quoting allancalderini:
question. what are the beneficial things of upgrading my account?I have a free membership but I want to change it so is there any difference when I upgrade it? btw how many people you have in ignore because right now I have 10 and I think that a lot I can`t imagine the ones that have been long time in here?
well i have heard you dont see the ads any more
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38474
510. washingtonian115
10:26 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:
162 hours
If the waves are going to come off that far north then they have only a small amount of opportunity to develop,As dry air and cool sst will be a problem.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
509. JLPR2
10:26 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Quoting allancalderini:
Jose look much better than this.


Ehh... That might be pushing it a little. XD

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8691
508. GTcooliebai
10:26 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Some bloggers all ready have to much power and they aren't even moderators yet.So I can only imagine once that opportunity comes around.(Shivers).
I'm down with more power than less power, try going on ESPN and blogging there it's like spam mania and a lot of vulgar language , if you think this is bad you are in for a pleasant surprise, lol. How relieved I am when moderators come in and delete the nonsense.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
507. wunderkidcayman
10:26 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
guys hes back

Weather Chat: Slamguitar, Dragod66, N3EG, ryang, Felix2007, wunderkidcayma
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12008
506. stormpetrol
10:26 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7862
505. weatherh98
10:25 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Quoting allancalderini:
question. what are the beneficial things of upgrading my account?I have a free membership but I want to change it so is there any difference when I upgrade it? btw how many people you have in ignore because right now I have 10 and I think that a lot I can`t imagine the ones that have been long time in here?


I have heard of upwards of 200 and majority I'm sure are JFV or Jason accounts
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6493
504. ncstorm
10:24 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
162 hours
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15286
503. allancalderini
10:23 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
question. what are the beneficial things of upgrading my account?I have a free membership but I want to change it so is there any difference when I upgrade it? btw how many people you have in ignore because right now I have 10 and I think that a lot I can`t imagine the ones that have been long time in here?
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4312
502. redwagon
10:23 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Quoting RitaEvac:
GALVESTON, Texas -

Thousands of Gulf Menhaden, or Shad fish, washed up on the beaches of Galveston overnight Sunday.

There hasn't been any mixerupper in the GOM since.. Ike.
Biospheres evolve with weather.. and the GOM doesn't really have upwelling weather anymore.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3237
501. RitaEvac
10:23 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Check out the outflow boundary push SE near the NWS, hold steady, then push back with seabreeze

Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
Quoting Chicklit:

My summer is ending as we blog...boo hoo


LOL in the N/W UK I don't think they even know what a summer is!

Well, aside from it getting dark at like 10:30 at night and never really getting fully dark. I much prefer fall and winter! But I grew up in the california desert....so hate heat and summer...
Member Since: October 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 842
Once again the 18z gfs shows ex td 7 getting into the boc and trying to get going down there again.
Member Since: June 4, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 767
Quoting allancalderini:
Jose look much better than this.


No. Never
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6493
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I disagree, I think it would be a great idea, the more experienced bloggers who have been on here since the beginning would know how to distinguish the trolls from those who are new to the blog and come here to learn. Heck I know who the trolls are and I keep my discipline by not quoting them and just scrolling past their post, but I can see how it is easy to come out and say something smart. The more authority brought to this blog the better, the less the worst it becomes. I'm wondering with TWC involvement if over time there will be more moderators.
Some bloggers all ready have to much power and they aren't even moderators yet.So I can only imagine once that opportunity comes around.(Shivers).
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
144 hours..BOC..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15286
Quoting Tazmanian:



is there a point you keep saying that evere update?

hey I am only saying on what I see on the new updated map 21Z

Quoting STSUCKS:
ex td 7 needs to be watched it could be a hurricane near the caymans..wonderkidcayman is right and no one is buying it!!


ok thats is just *********
I certainly do not see EX TD 7 becoming a hurricane near the Cayman Islands maybe a moderate TS strong TS at best I am right with it making a comeback I don't know about development about TD stage yet it will take time and some people think what I am say is correct other don't
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12008
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I imagine this may not be a tropical cyclone too much longer.

Jose look much better than this.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4312
Quoting RitaEvac:
So we've got a massive animal kill off now, ants are getting worse around my place, seeing dead frog with ants, dead worms with swarm of ants....and the thousands of dead fish along the coast

Fish kills are common in August it's okay. We get dead zones all the time:)

Maybe it's been dryer but not to dry to kill the ants. I have a secret for you. Take some grits and put it all over any ant piles.

When they eat the grits they soak up water in them and kills em. Kinda violent but it's effective
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6493
132 hours
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15286
Quoting Grothar:
I guess I'll stop posting these like I have since last night. I guess not much interest in it. I think I will go take a nap.



Please wake up at some point
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6493
Quoting washingtonian115:
We need more admin..but no bloggers as moderators.Only going to cause problems..
I disagree, I think it would be a great idea, the more experienced bloggers who have been on here since the beginning would know how to distinguish the trolls from those who are new to the blog and come here to learn. Heck I know who the trolls are and I keep my discipline by not quoting them and just scrolling past their post, but I can see how it is easy to come out and say something smart. The more authority brought to this blog the better, the less the worst it becomes. I'm wondering with TWC involvement if over time there will be more moderators.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
489. N3EG
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I imagine this may not be a tropical cyclone too much longer.


That's one big dust devil...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Felix2007:


More people saying the season is done... we still have a month to go until the peak, small periods of inactivity are common. Also, how could you even say that the season is done in early July??


CANTBELIEVEIT has litterly been trolling us as long as JFV has, I have about 20 of his accounts such as WRONGASUSUAL or something usually all caps. Best to ignore him completely. He does it to get a rise out of you. And he can't even do simple math either, he said this would be the 8th year the US misses out on a hurricane the other day.. 8 years ago was 2004.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24018
So we've got a massive animal kill off now, ants are getting worse around my place, seeing dead frog with ants, dead worms with swarm of ants....and the thousands of dead fish along the coast
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
ex td 7 needs to be watched it could be a hurricane near the caymans..wonderkidcayman is right and no one is buying it!!
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9
Will return later
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GALVESTON, Texas -

Thousands of Gulf Menhaden, or Shad fish, washed up on the beaches of Galveston overnight Sunday.

"I grew up in this county for the last 50 years and I've never seen anything like it," Jamaica Beach Cpl. Mike Todaro said. "Apparently it doesn't happen often."

Officials with Texas Parks and Wildlife said the quickly rising heat over the last few days has lowered the oxygen in the water, killing the fish and normal tide caused them to wash up on shore. Officials said shad fish are fragile and highly susceptible to the elements and couldn't survive the low oxygen levels.

Police said the fish aren't dangerous but it's still a good idea to keep your distance.

"This is pretty wild. I heard there were dead fish in the water but I didn't know it would be this bad on the beach," said Mitchell Schnyder.



Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
Quoting ncstorm:


I feel thats why people are complaining because they want this..that would be a terrible idea to have bloggers become moderators..
I'm a member of a site that does have moderators,and they have to much power...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
Quoting kmanislander:


Just recalling the conversation when Angela posted an update a few days ago. :-)



oh ok
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115084
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
quick update for 21Z conditions via 21Z maps

shear still decreasing

vort at 850mb good
vort at 700mb good
vort at 500mb a little better still need a bit of work

lower convergence is growing

steering continues to show speed values droping from 71W onwards movements say W till S of Jamaica then its WNW-NW movement



is there a point you keep saying that evere update?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115084

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.