Remains of TD 7 kill two in Trinidad; 93L too dry to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:31 PM GMT on August 12, 2012

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The remains of Tropical Depression Seven brought heavy rains to Trinidad on Saturday, unleashing flooding and mudslides that killed two people and left two others missing in Diego Martin. The storm is headed westward at 20 mph across the Caribbean, but high wind shear of 15 - 25 knots should prevent the system from regenerating. None of the reliable models forecasts that TD 7 will regenerate, and the storm should arrive in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-TD 7 a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.


Figure 1. An analysis of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) from 8 am EDT August 12, 2012. Very dry air from the Sahara (yellow and orange colors) surrounds the tropical wave designated 93L in the Central Atlantic. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS and NOAA/Hurricane Research Division.

93L
A large tropical wave(Invest 93L) is located in the Central Atlantic about 700 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show a pronounced spin to the atmosphere at mid levels, but little in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis from the University of Wisconsin shows that 93L is surrounded by a large area of dry air from the Sahara, which has infiltrated into the storm. This dry air will be a significant impediment to development, as the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that mid-levels of the atmosphere will remain very dry during the next four days. None of the reliable computer models develop 93L during the coming five days, and the storm is expected to move west-northwest and then north, recurving well to the east of Bermuda. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model is predicting 93L will develop into a tropical depression in about a week, once the storm recurves and begins heading northeast. At this point, it does not appear 93L will trouble any land areas.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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gee Texas is active tonight with storms.......................648
WUUS54 KSJT 122309
SVRSJT
TXC059-417-122345-
/O.NEW.KSJT.SV.W.0153.120812T2309Z-120812T2345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
609 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN SHACKELFORD COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN CALLAHAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 600 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MORAN...OR 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

WITH POSSIBLE STORM IMPACTS...
A FEW VEHICLE DENTS...
MINOR ROOF AND PLASTIC SIGN DAMAGE...
SOME TREE LIMB DAMAGE...WEAKENED TREES TOPPLED...
UNSECURED LIGHT OBJECTS BLOWN AROUND...
SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE...
POTENTIALLY DEADLY LIGHTNING.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
MORAN BY 615 PM CDT...
I-20 NEAR THE CALLAHAN-EASTLAND COUNTY LINE BY 645 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
SUNDAY EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.



LAT...LON 3265 9909 3252 9909 3251 9911 3236 9911
3235 9912 3257 9932 3270 9917
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 312DEG 14KT 3258 9916

Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38534
SAL is starting to diminish. Almost that time of the year....

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10253
12August6amGMT's 13.7n62.9w was re-evaluated&altered
12August6pmGMT's 13.5n63.2w-13.8n65.5w-14.0n68.0w are now the most recent positions
Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalWaveAL07 for 12August6pmGMT
MinimumPressure was 1011millibars
MaxSusWinds were 25knots(29mph)46km/h
Vector was 275.0*West@28.1mph(45.2km/h)

PEU-PuertoLempira :: PUZ-PuertoCabezas :: AUA-Aruba :: SLU-St.Lucia :: SVD-St.Vincent

The easternmost dot on the connected lines is where AL07 became a TropicalWave
The easternmost dot on the longest line is TW.7's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TW.7's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach (within 18miles or 29 kilometres) to a coastline
12August6pmGMT: TW.7 was heading for passage 6.2miles(10kilometres)North of MiskitoCays in ~1day6hours from now (when this was posted)

Copy&paste peu, puz, sdq, aua, slu, svd, 13.3n59.9w-13.3n61.4w, 13.3n61.4w-13.5n63.2w, 13.5n63.2w-13.8n65.5w, 13.8n65.5w-14.0n68.0w, 13.8n65.5w-14.643n82.651w, 14.553n82.652w-14.643n82.651w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger-scale map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:
18z Nogaps has the genesis of the storm coming off Africa same as the Euro



I dont think so my friend as Euro has it at 240 hours around 13N-51W if you look closely at the 12z run.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aislinnpaps:


I was in the Catskills. They don't get the huge snow amounts anymore.
..yes the weather has changed, and people forget..its the melting snow, that replenishes the lakes and water supplies up there, less snow, less water
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38534
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Hey anybody know how to animate and embed a java movie in here. I want to show the 5 day SAL on CIMSS website?

there should be a white box at the bottom of the page that says something like 5 day loop java with link
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12037
Quoting washingtonian115:
I remember where it was almost a guarantee that we would at least get 5 inches of snow for winter.Now that seems like it's harder to come by these days.
..yes im sure alot see the changes, cannot imagine what it will be like in say 50 years, some kid may say..snow..whats that?...gee
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38534
Quoting LargoFl:
gee i remember growing up in NYC in the 50's..we always got 2-3 foot snow storms in winter, the city seemed to shut down for a few days..for a kid, it was great, making snow forts in the middle of the street and oh man, the snow ball fights....then things changed, the snow fall amounts lessened..today if they get a foot of snow its a big deal..the weather HAS changed and maybe 30 years from now..any snow fall will be a big deal..we humans need to change, along WITH the weather changes, the earth is warming..and like the dinosaurs..we ignore it to our peril, sometime in the future..wars may be fought horribly..over plain drinking water and who has it..scary huh


I was in the Catskills. They don't get the huge snow amounts anymore.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I hope this is in an area that NEEDS the rainfall..Oklahoma is one of the states in the drought right?.........................
334
WUUS54 KOUN 122301
SVROUN
OKC013-069-095-122345-
/O.NEW.KOUN.SV.W.0423.120812T2301Z-120812T2345Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
601 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN BRYAN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHEASTERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 556 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED 4
MILES EAST OF MADILL AND 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF MADILL. THE
STORMS WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MADILL...CALERA...KINGSTON...OAKLAND...SILO...MEAD ...
WOODVILLE AND LITTLE CITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.



LAT...LON 3405 9691 3417 9688 3416 9667 3411 9635
3389 9642
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 293DEG 20KT 3409 9669

Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38534
Hey anybody know how to animate and embed a java movie in here. I want to show the 5 day SAL on CIMSS website?
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting LargoFl:
gee i remember growing up in NYC in the 50's..we always got 2-3 foot snow storms in winter, the city seemed to shut down for a few days..for a kid, it was great, making snow forts in the middle of the street and oh man, the snow ball fights....then things changed, the snow fall amounts lessened..today if they get a foot of snow its a big deal..the weather HAS changed and maybe 30 years from now..any snow fall will be a big deal..we humans need to change, along WITH the weather changes, the earth is warming..and like the dinosaurs..we ignore it to our peril, sometime in the future..wars may be fought horribly..over plain drinking water and who has it..scary huh
I remember where it was almost a guarantee that we would at least get 5 inches of snow for winter.Now that seems like it's harder to come by these days.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16979
Quoting STSUCKS:



no! you yourself said the dry air is leaving and its moistening up in the caribbean and with water temps and no shear its on its way!

#1 dry air is leaving yeah #2 its moistening up around the system #3 yes temp are hot #4 I did not say no shear but less shear EX-TD7 is getting there, not there yet, but getting close.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12037
18z Nogaps has the genesis of the storm coming off Africa same as the Euro

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15311
Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh please nothing like this past winter...All snow lovers will commit suicide.I can actually count how many times I wore my thick coat and that's pretty sad..For most of the winter I wore a light jacket.We had thunderstorms in all the months so far this year.Something I hope doesn't continue into this fall/winter.
gee i remember growing up in NYC in the 50's..we always got 2-3 foot snow storms in winter, the city seemed to shut down for a few days..for a kid, it was great, making snow forts in the middle of the street and oh man, the snow ball fights....then things changed, the snow fall amounts lessened..today if they get a foot of snow its a big deal..the weather HAS changed and maybe 30 years from now..any snow fall will be a big deal..we humans need to change, along WITH the weather changes, the earth is warming..and like the dinosaurs..we ignore it to our peril, sometime in the future..wars may be fought horribly..over plain drinking water and who has it..scary huh
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38534
GFS has an area of low pressure over the Western GOM.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:
As I am bored and not that interested in seeing Ex-TD 7 struggle I will go on to read Dr. Masters's entries for 2005. :P

See you all later.


Post some of the best, funniest posts that you find.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

dude you must be mad



no! you yourself said the dry air is leaving and its moistening up in the caribbean and with water temps and no shear its on its way!
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9
Quoting STSUCKS:



more like 60%!!

dude you must be mad
I mean it may come to that but just not now
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12037
.......................................There is and Has been a watch for that blob off the East coast for awhile now..could very well turn into something, watching it closely
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38534
Quoting ncstorm:


yeah..the east coast I believe we will see a lot of snow and ice this winter..nothing like last winter
Oh please nothing like this past winter...All snow lovers will commit suicide.I can actually count how many times I wore my thick coat and that's pretty sad..For most of the winter I wore a light jacket.We had thunderstorms in all the months so far this year.Something I hope doesn't continue into this fall/winter.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16979
Quoting washingtonian115:
Wow look what's off the east coast(A extra tropical cyclone/noreaster?).Could foreshadow what we're going to get this fall/winter I hope..

I hope so too, lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

It really hasn't been that great this year. Everyone worships it because it nailed Debby and has done pretty good with some other storm tracks but it still has shown a lot of storms that haven't happened.
I know it has been said many times, but one should not take the models as gospel, but more so to see trends with the atmospheric patterns which both the GFS and Euro are showing a weaker ridge in the Atlantic and stronger troughs coming off the East Coast.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting aquak9:
The last time Doc declared a system dead:

Update on remains of TD 10
Posted by: JeffMasters, 3:40 PM EDT on August 22, 2005 +0

I've been reluctant to pay much heed to the remains of TD 10 after declaring the system dead forever


well I think we all know what happened. Ya woulda thought the good Dr would've learned a lesson- never ever EVER call a system dead.
Hi aqua,
Thought about those 2005 blogs also when I saw DocM's blog title "TD7 dies;..." Still on the fence about former TD7's potential. We'll see what happens.
:)

Zelda says... beware 95L and 96L, especially 96L.

(T-2)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
Wow look what's off the east coast(A extra tropical cyclone/noreaster?).Could foreshadow what we're going to get this fall/winter I hope..


yeah..the east coast I believe we will see a lot of snow and ice this winter..nothing like last winter
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15311
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
I see that GFS emerges wave much higher in latitude than the Euro and that is why the no consensus on the track..


yeah..the agreement is there but one has it heading west and one has it heading north..and then west and then north..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15311
Eastern Atlantic
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:
324..starts taking it north

Wow look what's off the east coast(A extra tropical cyclone/noreaster?).Could foreshadow what we're going to get this fall/winter I hope..
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16979
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
well whatever happens to EX-TD 7 it is a wait and see game



wait and see it become a hurricane in the next two days and approach the caymans!! just like you said wait until it gets near jamaica and its going to blow up!!
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38534
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
well whatever happens to EX-TD 7 it is a wait and see game
It's always a wait and see game when it comes to the tropics, nothing is ever set in stone.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Ernesto has had a hard life. Couldn't develop in the Atlantic due to trade winds until right before it hit land, and never got an accurate reading of peak intensity, moves into the EPAC, doesn't even get to keep his name and gets sheared apart still in the Pacific even though there's a El Nino.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24039
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
well whatever happens to EX-TD 7 it is a wait and see game




thats ture we cant all ways be right about some in but the all we thing we can do is try
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115131
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

The GFS is showing a weird high placement this run. It would let storms move north initially but turn more west later.


The GFS has not been handling the placement of the high well at all
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15311
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Frustrating the inconsistencies with the GFS. It will show activity marching across the Atlantic for 4 straight runs and then drop development. It also showed a Gulf storm for 4 straight runs and now drops it.

True but it did show some kind of low pressure in the BOC but didn't get going this time!...I bet it brings it back in a few runs.
Member Since: June 4, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 767
well whatever happens to EX-TD 7 it is a wait and see game
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12037
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
..looks like quite a blow up over the Yucatan today
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38534
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Frustrating the inconsistencies with the GFS. It will show activity marching across the Atlantic for 4 straight runs and then drop development. It also showed a Gulf storm for 4 straight runs and now drops it.

It really hasn't been that great this year. Everyone worships it because it nailed Debby and has done pretty good with some other storm tracks but it still has shown a lot of storms that haven't happened.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I see that GFS emerges wave much higher in latitude than the Euro and that is why the no consensus on the track..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

yeah I say 20% or 30%



more like 60%!!
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9
324..starts taking it north

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15311
since , central nc is out of the danger zone for a hurricane at this time,, be nosy and look out your window to nite,, it might storm,, a meteor storm that may happen.and may entertain you,,
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
GFS has no hint of that storm the Euro showed today:

Frustrating the inconsistencies with the GFS. It will show activity marching across the Atlantic for 4 straight runs and then drop development. It also showed a Gulf storm for 4 straight runs and now drops it.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

yeah I say 20% or 30%



it will be %10 for ex TD 7 and may be %0 for 93L
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115131
300 hours
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15311
Quoting RitaEvac:
Check out the outflow boundary push SE near the NWS, hold steady, then push back with seabreeze

..Rita Texas has a few warnings out, stay safe over there, heed your local warnings ok
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38534
Quoting ncstorm:


the trolls have always been here..way before TWC..its easy, ignore it and move on..dont engage in conversations..dont try to push its buttons..ignore it..the site even warns you about links as well before you even click it..I dont have any problems..

Well said. Also set the filter to average or above and you don't even see most of that crap.
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Quoting ncstorm:
looks like it wants to start moving the storm west..252


The GFS is showing a weird high placement this run. It would let storms move north initially but turn more west later.
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Quoting nigel20:

Last night x-7 showed development with DMAX. Now that he's chosen a more N route, he is cut off from ITCZ moisture... he's now at the mercy of DMIN moisture offerings from surrounding disturbances arising from island landmass heating.

He's also in a better place for a ULL to help him.. I'd say he has a better chance overall than if he'd been able to take Ernesto's path. But his chosen path is more likely to recurve him to FL and not TX, which pains me because we need a TS/Cat1 ex-7.
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Quoting allancalderini:
IMO ex td 7 should be up to 20%.

yeah I say 20% or 30%
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12037
looks like it wants to start moving the storm west..252

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15311
I find it quite interesting that both the Euro and GFS show a very active wave train coming up all though at different times.Thanks to yours truly the MJO..A strong pulse should be over Africa helping the waves become more robust.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16979

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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