TD 7 dies; 93L little threat to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2012

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Tropical Depression Seven is dead, ripped apart by moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots this Saturday morning. The storm was too small and fragile to survive the shear, thanks to dry air from the Sahara that had infiltrated the storm environment. None of the reliable models forecasts that TD 7 will regenerate as it tracks westwards across the Caribbean over the next four days. The remains of the storm should arrive in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remnants of TD 7.

93L
A large tropical wave(Invest 93L) is located in the Eastern Atlantic about 300 miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show a pronounced spin to the atmosphere at mid levels, but little in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis from the University of Wisconsin shows that there is a large area of dry air from the Sahara surrounding 93L, which has infiltrated into the storm. This dry air will be a significant impediment to development during the coming week, as the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts dryness at mid-levels of the atmosphere will increase during the next five days. None of the reliable computer models develop 93L during the coming seven days, and the storm is expected to move west-northwest and then north, recurving well to the east of Bermuda. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L a 20% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Monday morning.

I'll have a new post on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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1336. RTSplayer
6:59 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
So what are everyone's thoughts on the Mississippi nearly drying up near Memphis?

They said it is normally 3miles wide there, and now the water level is so low that it is only 0.3 miles wide.

I figure that must cut the flow rate to about 5% of what it is supposed to be.


How are we going to manage cargo transports if this gets too dry?

It will take several new rail roads to make up the difference if the river dries up and stays dry, and that's just a start...grain elevators and other companies will have to install totally new systems for loading cars instead of barges...
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
1335. Patrap
5:51 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Scientific Forecaster Discussion
NWS Discussion NOLA
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
1334. hydrus
5:34 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
TN had a cool morning too:

A very cool start across the Cookeville area this morning as temps were in the 50's for the second morning in a row. We dropped to a low of 52.7° (the record low was 49° in 1964), which is the coolest morning reading since the sixth of June when we had a low of 50.6°.
I had 54 degrees here in Rock Island...Refreshing to say the least after a monster heat wave.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21239
1333. GeorgiaStormz
5:08 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
TN had a cool morning too:

A very cool start across the Cookeville area this morning as temps were in the 50's for the second morning in a row. We dropped to a low of 52.7° (the record low was 49° in 1964), which is the coolest morning reading since the sixth of June when we had a low of 50.6°.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9730
1332. xtremeweathertracker
3:54 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

no it will do in the caribbean


My feeling is that TD7 has a chance of redevelopment in the extreme western Carribean where trade winds slow down and air piles up and creates lower convergence and upper divergence! Wind shear is also low in that area and the TCHP is high!! The GFS is hinting at redevelopment in the BOC or GOM and i think this is a reasonable solution!! Remeber Ernesto never really got his act together until just before landfall on the Yucatin!! My best forecast is western Carribean or GOM,,,,not before!!
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 57 Comments: 571
1331. wunderkidcayman
3:47 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
ok noting change in conditions 15Z

shear map came out shear still weakening that lip of higher shear is geting thiner the 30kt are now dissipearing and continues to move WNW-NW
5-10kt starting to build more in the E caribbean shear tend. is also droping

vort at 850mb still good
vort at 700mb still good
vort at 500mb still need working on

lower convergence continues to build

steering continues to show W ward movement speed are a bit slower

ok end of update with conditions for 15Z

(this is all I'll be posting for w while this type stuff
no it wrong or this or that just what you see amd maybe some small comments on what I see
other than that mothing else)
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12035
1330. sunlinepr
3:43 PM GMT on August 12, 2012


TINY DUST SPECKS COULD HAVE BIG EFFECT ON HURRICANES

Satellite image of Saharan Air Layer outbreak moving over Africa on March 3, 2004, where vast amounts of Saharan dust clearly can be seen from space.Oct. 13, 2006 Never underestimate the power of something small. Researchers are finding that Saharan dust storms containing tiny specks of dust are linked to suppressed hurricane activity in the Atlantic. (Click satellite image for larger view of Saharan Air Layer outbreak moving over Africa on March 3, 2004, where vast amounts of Saharan dust clearly can be seen from space. Click here for high resolution version. Image courtesy of NASA.)

Jason Dunion, a hurricane researcher at the NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory's Hurricane Research Division in Miami, Fla., and his colleagues at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, studied the past 25 years of satellite data. They found that during times of intense hurricane activity, the large clouds of dust that periodically blow westward from the Saharan Desert are relatively scarce. In years when there were fewer hurricanes, the dust storms were stronger and tended to spread over much of the Atlantic and Caribbean Sea.

"The research conducted by Dunion and his colleagues is ..............

Link
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9814
1328. sunlinepr
3:35 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
There should be no problem between us ALL...

Presentations, discussions and forecasts here should not separate US....

The solution?

Everyone here has the liberty to express their forecasts.... No matter how weird they sound...

Who's going to prove it right or wrong?

TIME

TIME WILL BRING THE TRUTH....
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9814
1327. Tazmanian
3:33 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
am even thinking the nhc could even drop ex 7 for a little in tell it finds some in more favorable too re fourm if the trade winds dos not rip the wave a part
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115125
1326. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:31 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1325. CybrTeddy
3:31 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES TO THE WEST OF WINDWARD
ISLANDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
REGENERATION
...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

TD 7's not redeveloping.


Not in 48 hours at least, I'd watch it though if it gets into the Western Caribbean. The GFS is predicting an ULAC to develop as I mentioned last night.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24033
1324. wunderkidcayman
3:31 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
you guys should sit back and watch too

ok now all enought of the argueing and let is sit back and watch
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12035
1322. SSideBrac
3:29 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
New TD in the West Pac. Forecast to brush the northern Philippines then hit China as a strong TS.





They sure have had a lot of landfalls out there this year.


Looks like another SAOLA.
Even though a lot of them hit as TS , they still bring large rainfall to areas very prone to flooding, landslides, mudslides - and - we may never really truly know the true extent of damages.
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 266
1321. MAweatherboy1
3:29 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Their Tropical Weather Outlook only goes out to 48 hours as you know...conditions are not expected to be favorable during that time. However, even I am on the redevelopment bandwagon if this gets into the NW Caribbean and Gulf like the GFS indicates.

It's definitely possible it develops in the Gulf (though I don't think it will) but conditions definitely aren't good enough in the Caribbean like WKC is saying.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7787
1320. Tazmanian
3:29 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

no it will do in the caribbean





ex TD 7 wont do any thing in tell the gulf like the gfs says things are not favorable in the Caribbean but may be buy time it gets too the NW Caribbean and gulf thing may be come a little more favorable
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115125
1319. wunderkidcayman
3:28 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Did we not just go through this with Ernesto? All buoys in the East and Central Caribbean are reporting a very east to west flow of at least 15 knots. This is very conducive, as we saw with Ernesto, and with nothing to disrupt the trade winds ahead of the disturbance, I'm willing to bet they're actually stronger than what Ernesto faced.

nope ernesto had stronger trades



anyway can we all agree on what I said just a while ago

repeating
ok this is what I'm going to do for me and you I am going to sit back for while and I suggest you guys do the same anyway sit back and watch what happen and keep a close eye on the environmenteal conditions around it any changes will it be noted sound reasonable enought to you guys
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12035
1318. MAweatherboy1
3:26 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

NOT YET

I thought you were planning on sitting back for a while. Or was 30 seconds enough?

Conditions are not conducive for development. TD 7 is far less defined than even Ernesto was, and we saw how he struggled. Just my opinion of course, though since I don't forecast redevelopment my opinion is probably wrong to you.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7787
1317. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:25 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES TO THE WEST OF WINDWARD
ISLANDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
REGENERATION
...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

TD 7's not redeveloping.

Their Tropical Weather Outlook only goes out to 48 hours as you know...conditions are not expected to be favorable during that time. However, even I am on the redevelopment bandwagon if this gets into the NW Caribbean and Gulf like the GFS indicates.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072
1316. wunderkidcayman
3:25 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Quoting Tazmanian:



yes it is its not refourming right now in tell the gulf if even at all

no it will do in the caribbean
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12035
1315. Mikla
3:24 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Ex TD7 has a real battle if it were to redevelop:

Pluses:
- Moving to lower shear
- Warm water
- Still has some loose/broken circulation

Minus:
- Moving like a freight train
- LOTS of dry air in front (and moving fast makes it worse)
- Will probably never get above 20N and will interact with land before it has any chance to make use of a better environment
- No model support

But this is weather... and it is called forecasting.. so...
Member Since: October 13, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 292
1314. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:24 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

struggle yes not denying that significantly no I would say that trad wind are slowing down and dry air is not as dry as early this morning

I'm not saying it will not get any dry air or fast trades but I am saying it won't be as much as you people think


the only thing that you missed out was that the trades were much more stronger with ernesto than with EX-TD7 trades are a whole lot slower than what ernesto had and trades are a bit weaker than last night so keep that in mind

Did we not just go through this with Ernesto? All buoys in the East and Central Caribbean are reporting a very east to west flow of at least 15 knots. This is very conducive, as we saw with Ernesto, and with nothing to disrupt the trade winds ahead of the disturbance, I'm willing to bet they're actually stronger than what Ernesto faced.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072
1313. Tazmanian
3:23 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

NOT YET



yes it is its not refourming right now in tell the gulf if even at all
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115125
1312. wunderkidcayman
3:22 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES TO THE WEST OF WINDWARD
ISLANDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
REGENERATION
...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

TD 7's not redeveloping.

NOT YET
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12035
1311. aspectre
3:22 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
inre 1296/etc wunderkidcayman... Yeesh. Tone down your rhetoric. It ain't never "I'm 100% right, and everybody who disagrees on any detail is 100% WRONG" when it comes to weather prediction.
Just give your assessment, and let others give theirs.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
1310. wunderkidcayman
3:22 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
ok this is what I'm going to do for me and you I am going to sit back for while and I suggest you guys do the same anyway sit back and watch what happen and keep a close eye on the environmenteal conditions around it any changes will it be noted sound reasonable enought to you guys
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12035
1309. Cayman2010
3:21 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Quoting Patrap:
Somebody send dat Guy some periods and capital letters.

: )
Stilll wouldn't know how to use them :-)
Member Since: August 31, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 90
1308. Tazmanian
3:20 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES TO THE WEST OF WINDWARD
ISLANDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
REGENERATION
...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

TD 7's not redeveloping.



NOP
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115125
1307. MAweatherboy1
3:19 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES TO THE WEST OF WINDWARD
ISLANDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
REGENERATION
...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

TD 7's not redeveloping.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7787
1306. WxGeekVA
3:17 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

no not really I seen storms development in 30-40kts of shear so it is not still too high and it will start before 75W-76W more at 96W/70W


look guys condition aren't as bad as you think and you are putting out to be so far for this morning it is doing quite well for being in 20kt shear

shear is falling and it will do better in the lower shear and but it proving what it can do in 20kt I think it wants to do better in lower shear and looking at the shear maps that ain't too far away


I'm beginning to think you are wishcasting.... You are the most agressive on development on every storm this year, and you seem to think that everything will develop or intensify even in 30kts of SAL-laden shear. Please, think more about your forecasts before you make them.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3471
1305. wunderkidcayman
3:16 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Even if wind shear is low, ex-TD Seven is going to struggle significantly with dry air and trade winds. There is no denying that.

struggle yes not denying that significantly no I would say that trad wind are slowing down and dry air is not as dry as early this morning

I'm not saying it will not get any dry air or fast trades but I am saying it won't be as much as you people think

Quoting allancalderini:
Trade winds almost kill Ernesto let say they don`t kill ex td 7 but at least it will be beat up pretty badly and it would likely move into CA before it redevelops.

the only thing that you missed out was that the trades were much more stronger with ernesto than with EX-TD7 trades are a whole lot slower than what ernesto had and trades are a bit weaker than last night so keep that in mind
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12035
1304. Patrap
3:16 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
1303. Tazmanian
3:16 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

no not really I seen storms development in 30-40kts of shear so it is not still too high and it will start before 75W-76W more at 96W/70W


look guys condition aren't as bad as you think and you are putting out to be so far for this morning it is doing quite well for being in 20kt shear

shear is falling and it will do better in the lower shear and but it proving what it can do in 20kt I think it wants to do better in lower shear and looking at the shear maps that ain't too far away



stop jumping the gune there is a lot of dry air a head of ex TD 7 and it will have too put up with trade winds ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS are not CONDUCIVE for any kind of REGENERATION in tell may be the gulf of MX
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115125
1302. IFuSAYso
3:16 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Quoting kmanislander:


No need to shout.


It's Tourettes.
Member Since: March 8, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 154
1301. MAweatherboy1
3:14 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
New TD in the West Pac. Forecast to brush the northern Philippines then hit China as a strong TS.





They sure have had a lot of landfalls out there this year.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7787
1300. MAweatherboy1
3:11 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
93L has a floater up on it now:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7787
1299. GeorgiaStormz
3:10 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Quoting jascott1967:


I can no longer take you seriously. Let me give you a suggestion before I put you on ignore...get inside a boat, row it a couple hundred miles from the coast of Africa and enjoy yourself. Anyone who wishes for destruction should be allowed that "satisfaction" alone. Go find your Ivan.



he doesnt want destruction...
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9730
1298. sunlinepr
3:10 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Quoting sunlinepr:
Seems like in the last frames, Convection spreads and starts to go away with that ULL NNE...



Is that what happened? Not a single drop of water here....


Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9814
1297. Patrap
3:08 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Somebody send dat Guy some periods and capital letters.

: )
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
1296. wunderkidcayman
3:06 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Quoting jascott1967:


I can no longer take you seriously. Let me give you a suggestion before I put you on ignore...get inside a boat, row it a couple hundred miles from the coast of Africa and enjoy yourself. Anyone who wishes for destruction should be allowed that "satisfaction" alone. Go find your Ivan.

I am not asking for destruction and hell no with Ivan
look I am telling you what is really happening out there and you are being blind-sighted to this that is why you can take me seriously and if it does play out the way I'm saying then what your going to say what I didn't say it was going to play out or its not going to happen well the go ahead at least you are believing in something but what I know its not what is happening and it not the truth


untill conditions change from what they are curently indicating which is better conditions then I'll stand by what I said

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12035
1295. allancalderini
3:04 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

no not really I seen storms development in 30-40kts of shear so it is not still too high and it will start before 75W-76W more at 96W/70W


look guys condition aren't as bad as you think and you are putting out to be so far for this morning it is doing quite well for being in 20kt shear

shear is falling and it will do better in the lower shear and but it proving what it can do in 20kt I think it wants to do better in lower shear and looking at the shear maps that ain't too far away
Trade winds almost kill Ernesto let say they don`t kill ex td 7 but at least it will be beat up pretty badly and it would likely move into CA before it redevelops.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4341
1294. weathermanwannabe
3:02 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
1289. wunderkidcayman 10:49 AM EDT on August 12, 201

It is really not cool to get so aggressive with someone (you are wrong) just because of a difference of opinion. Especially on a blog where folks are supposed to discuss things in a civil manner and the real fact that no one on here knows exactly what is going to happen with any given tropical system...... Quite frankly, it's all a matter of educated guesses most of the time (and lots of uneducated guesses).

Have a Good Day...........I'm Out.

Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9134
1293. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:01 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

no not really I seen storms development in 30-40kts of shear so it is not still too high and it will start before 75W-76W more at 96W/70W


look guys condition aren't as bad as you think and you are putting out to be so far for this morning it is doing quite well for being in 20kt shear

shear is falling and it will do better in the lower shear and but it proving what it can do in 20kt I think it wants to do better in lower shear and looking at the shear maps that ain't too far away

Even if wind shear is low, ex-TD Seven is going to struggle significantly with dry air and trade winds. There is no denying that.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072
1292. wunderkidcayman
2:58 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA:


You're right. Shear isn't as bad as it was, but it's still way too hight for any re-development of 07L at the time. Nothing is going to happen with it until it passes the longitude of Jamaica at the earliest.

no not really I seen storms development in 30-40kts of shear so it is not still too high and it will start before 75W-76W more at 96W/70W


look guys condition aren't as bad as you think and you are putting out to be so far for this morning it is doing quite well for being in 20kt shear

shear is falling and it will do better in the lower shear and but it proving what it can do in 20kt I think it wants to do better in lower shear and looking at the shear maps that ain't too far away
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12035
1291. aspectre
2:57 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
1256 Articuno: Am I the only one getting these annoying Market News Videos advertisements?

Nope, another WUber had the same complaint yesterday. Quoting myself:
Targeted advertising. Curiosity piqued by the BBC's TopGear LeaderBoard, I looked up a buncha exotic sports cars... then got swamped with video-ads from high-end luxury car dealers.
Which is how Google makes BIG bucks from letting customers search for free.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
1290. jascott1967
2:54 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

yep maybe


I have to disagree with part of what you are saying about shear in the caribbean more so on EX TD7

you must have not been looking at the shear maps as long as I have and as close as I have because shear is not as hostile as before (when we could have called it "Too Hostile" for real) and it is weakening plus that thin lip of higher shear on the N half of the system is moving NW-NNW away from it shear is decreasing


I can no longer take you seriously. Let me give you a suggestion before I put you on ignore...get inside a boat, row it a couple hundred miles from the coast of Africa and enjoy yourself. Anyone who wishes for destruction should be allowed that "satisfaction" alone. Go find your Ivan.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 614
1289. wunderkidcayman
2:49 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Quoting VR46L:


Quoting wunderkidcayman:
ok this is what I think from now till the system reaches near 68W/70W we will see slow and weak redevelopment of the system (maybe strong low to very weak TD status mostly leaning on strong low) and after that we will see faster and stronger developmet more so when it gets closer to 75W (maybe being in the weak to moderate TS status by the time it reaches 75W) also sattelite presentation I expect to get better however still be a little disorganised with a bit of shearing on it northern sides and a small it of dry air problems as the system trys to filter it out in front of the system this is just my take on it and what could happen I see conditions now better than it was 12 hrs ago and a lot better than nearly 24hrs ago and I expect it to get better as today and tomrrow progresses


I hope this answers it

Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Ex7 is in the same position now that Ernesto was last week; it's getting sheered to the death by that big ULL at 30N-56W in the Northern Central Atlantic.

WV Loop.

Link

ULLs/SAL/Faster Trade Winds is the story of the Central Atlantic for the moment; Tutt Rules.




thats where you are wrong
the ULL is not shearing it to anything close to death compaired to last night it weakening/there is not that much SAL in the areato its W in front of it-there is more dry air than SAL however the dry air is moving W of the system and the dry air is weakening in front of the system so it trying to beat the dry air out so far so good/ trades are weakening/ or slowing in the caribbean its slow than before so not too much problems there
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12035
1288. WxGeekVA
2:45 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

yep maybe


I have to disagree with part of what you are saying about shear in the caribbean more so on EX TD7

you must have not been looking at the shear maps as long as I have and as close as I have because shear is not as hostile as before (when we could have called it "Too Hostile" for real) and it is weakening plus that thin lip of higher shear on the N half of the system is moving NW-NNW away from it shear is decreasing


You're right. Shear isn't as bad as it was, but it's still way too hight for any re-development of 07L at the time. Nothing is going to happen with it until it passes the longitude of Jamaica at the earliest.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3471
1287. VR46L
2:45 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
Quoting aspectre:
1250 VR46L: But look at this image, see all the dry air its heading into....

Was there ever a time when (now ex)TD.7 wasn't heading into dry air?


No, true but I cant be convinced of development in the Caribbean. Yes if it survives as a wave in the Gulf.
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6899
1286. Mikla
2:43 PM GMT on August 12, 2012
I believe this has been linked before... but a good source of info..
Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting
Member Since: October 13, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 292

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.