Little change to TD 7; 93L may develop off the coast of Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:57 PM GMT on August 10, 2012

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Tropical Depression Seven continues westward across the central tropical Atlantic with little change in appearance. Looking remarkably like the tropical depression that became Tropical Storm Ernesto last week, TD 7 has a limited region of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. A large amount of dry air to the west and north is visible on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is interfering with TD 7's heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a light 5 - 10 knots, which is favorable for intensification. Ocean temperatures are 26.5°C, which is a bit on the cool side, but these temperatures are 0.5° warmer than on Thursday. Winds at the Middle Atlantic buoy 41041 peaked at 29 mph, gusting to 38 mph, at 1:50 am EDT this Friday morning, when the center of TD 7 passed about 40 miles to the south. TD 7 will pass about 60 miles south of buoy 41040 near midnight tonight. The first hurricane hunter mission into TD 7 is scheduled for Saturday morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 7.

Forecast for TD 7
TD 7 formed about 400 miles east-northeast of where Ernesto became a tropical depression, as seen on our wundermap. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are currently quite similar to what Ernesto experienced, and I expect TD 7 will struggle with dry air like Ernesto did. The SHIPS model predicts that shear will remain light through tonight, then rise to the moderate range on Saturday, when the storm will encounter upper-level southwesterly winds associated with a trough of low pressure. However, ocean temperatures will warm to 28°C, which may partially counteract the increase in shear, as far as maintaining a favorable environment for development. Dry air and shear may be significant enough to destroy TD 7 on Sunday, as predicted by the GFS and ECMWF models. These models tried to kill off Ernesto in a similar situation last week, so I am inclined to believe TD 7 will survive for the coming five days, but struggle. The official NHC forecast of a 45 mph tropical storm moving through the Lesser Antilles Islands Saturday night and Sunday is a reasonable one.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

93L
A strong tropical wave in the far Eastern Atlantic that emerged off the coast of Africa Thursday night was designated Invest 93L by NHC. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L a 50% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Sunday morning. Satellite loops show a pronounced spin to the atmosphere at mid levels, but little in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis from the University of Wisconsin shows that while the atmosphere immediately surrounding the disturbance is moist, there is a large area of dry air from the Sahara to the west and north. This dry air will be a significant impediment to development during the coming week. The ECMWF model shows some weak development of 93L over the coming week, and predicts a general west-northwesterly track. The storm may be something Bermuda needs to be concerned about in eight or so days.

I'll have a new post this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting JeffMasters:
Weather Channel company acquires Madison's Weather Central

MADISON — Weather Central, of Madison, is now part of the company that owns the Weather Channel.

Weather Central has been purchased by Weather Services International, part of the Weather Channel Cos. of Andover, Mass. Its holdings include the Weather Channel, the popular TV channel that provides nationwide weather coverage 24 hours a day.

Terms of the deal between the two privately owned companies were not disclosed.

There's no name yet for the combined company of Weather Central and WSI.

"The Weather Central brand will stay for the foreseeable future," spokeswoman Shirley Powell said.

link

TWC is assembling some pretty formidable resources.

Jeff Masters



saw this a while back.
Should be interesting
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NHC WENT 30% ON 93L! ridiculous imo
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Dunno about anything over 50% for 93L.
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Quoting kwgirl:
Did you know that he helped in the prison, Fort Jefferson, with the yellow fever epidemic when the Doctor at the fort died? That's how he got his pardon, I was told. Pardoned to go work in Panama.


Yes, I did.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 200 PM EDT for Fire
Island only...

At 134 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar continued to
indicate a tornado. This tornado was located near Saltaire... or near
Robert Moses State Park... moving north at 25 mph.

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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
93L should be at CODE RED, at the 2pm TWO..

90% IMO.

TD 7... Still not Gordon.
Not surprised... Pathetic little thing...<
BR>
And Ernesto shall live on! Whether it being reincarnated as Hector, or surviving...


Im laughing at the fact that the NHC is so untrustworthy of TD 7 getting a name, that they dont even have TS watches of for the Windwards and Leewards... lol
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To all the people who think this season is a bust or is gonna be a bust....... Hello its August 10th
The season ends November 30th
We have most of August, September and who knows maybe even october and november to get big storms... and...... b careful what u wish for... i know that first hand :p
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Quoting tornadodude:
12z GFS taking the remnants of Ernesto up the Gulf of California?


If that happens then things could get ugly for california and Arizona.
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
A little spin south of Jamaica but no lower level vorticity per the latest CIMSS chart. Convection in that area is being enhanced by the big ULL/Tutt cell just off to the blob's NW near Cuba (below at the 200 mb level). It should dissipate by later this evening or tomorrow......Worth watching it to see if it is still there tomorrow.

200 mb ULL:

Link
The Canadian and HWRF models were showing a surface reflection with the Canadian being more bullish on one of the runs a couple days ago.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Notice HPC's forecast for day 7...TD# 7 is close to where i would expect, however if the high pressure is amplifying over the SE and high pressure is present over the 4 corners region it opens the door for a weakness to be present over Texas and also ventilates any system nearing the western carribean!! We need to watch out for TD #7 to surprise us in the long term!!

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Quoting tornadodude:
12z GFS taking the remnants of Ernesto up the Gulf of California?



I want to see one loop him back around Mexico into the Gulf, just for the lulz.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting jascott1967:


Yellow fever has nothing on the honey badger. Honey badger just doesn't care. Honey badger looks a hurricane dead in it's eye and says, "not here, hurricane, I'm the crazy honey badger and I takes whatever I wants."
Not sure what you are discussing.BUT, The Honey Badger is the meanest animal on the planet.Next to my ex
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5819
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
All except the pressure ...



Yeah, it's all in the Mid-Upper levels ATM. If the area persists it could try to work down as it is on the diffluent side of the ULL.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5043
Quoting Articuno:


The season is just getting started, no need to fret. We will get some good TCs this year, I just know it.
(sorry if I sound a little too eager but I just have some gut inside saying that it's gonna be a good hurricane season!)


Fortunately, I've had that guy on ignore. There's the type of guy that thinks years like 2007 where boring because the Category 5s didn't hit the US. Ernesto, Beryl, Debby have all caused damage. Debby caused a lot of Flooding in Florida, Ernesto did a lot of damage to the Yucatan from what I've read and Beryl was a borderline hurricane when it hit Florida in May.
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410. JeffMasters (Admin)
Weather Channel company acquires Madison's Weather Central

MADISON — Weather Central, of Madison, is now part of the company that owns the Weather Channel.

Weather Central has been purchased by Weather Services International, part of the Weather Channel Cos. of Andover, Mass. Its holdings include the Weather Channel, the popular TV channel that provides nationwide weather coverage 24 hours a day.

Terms of the deal between the two privately owned companies were not disclosed.

There's no name yet for the combined company of Weather Central and WSI.

"The Weather Central brand will stay for the foreseeable future," spokeswoman Shirley Powell said.

link

TWC is assembling some pretty formidable resources.

Jeff Masters
93L should be at CODE RED, at the 2pm TWO..

90% IMO.

TD 7... Still not Gordon.
Not surprised... Pathetic little thing...

And Ernesto shall live on! Whether it being reincarnated as Hector, or surviving...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kwgirl:
Did you know that he helped in the prison, Fort Jefferson, with the yellow fever epidemic when the Doctor at the fort died? That's how he got his pardon, I was told. Pardoned to go work in Panama.


Yellow fever has nothing on the honey badger. Honey badger just doesn't care. Honey badger looks a hurricane dead in it's eye and says, "not here, hurricane, I'm the crazy honey badger and I takes whatever I wants."
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I suspect 70 to near 100% on 93L in the next the TWO.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting goldenpixie1:


They're probably just scoping you out.... :)



lol, i think they wanted food...they didnt get any...all they really got was death...still cant figure out where they get in.
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12z GFS taking the remnants of Ernesto up the Gulf of California?

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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Those ugly Bufo toads are disgusting...... How could they ever get a boyfriend??
Are they a toad, or a frog???
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5819
Quoting Skyepony:
OSCAT of 93L

Holy crap.
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Quoting kwgirl:
Odd you should mention that. I was discussing with my friend how lizards are small now and used to be huge, when mammals were small. I wondered what entity would be big the next go round and figured it would be insects. Imagine huge fire ants!


Karl Pilkington believes it would be a good idea to insert a few T-Rex's here and there to control population.
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Quoting Grothar:


One of the greatest achievements of mankind and I consider one of the Wonders of the New World. It changed the way the world traded and contributed to the US as a world wide exporter.

Dr. Mudd, who was one of the co-conspirators convicted for the assassination of Lincoln, was sent from prison to help with the Yellow Fever outbreak. He was later commended for his work. Estimates of over 6,000 people died in the construction. Something we take for granted came at a high price by the sacrifice of others.
Did you know that he helped in the prison, Fort Jefferson, with the yellow fever epidemic when the Doctor at the fort died? That's how he got his pardon, I was told. Pardoned to go work in Panama.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Lol.

I see we've started the yearly ant/bird talk. Sigh. You know the blog is bored when...



Hey i look for birds running when im in a tornado/severe thunderstorm warning to see where the worst stuff is....the birds here run from heavy rain and lightning without fail....and are usually just ahead of the worst of the storm..
When there is hail, they really seem to get moving..

but i dont count on them, i just look for them sometimes when the storm is upon me.
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Quoting Articuno:


The season is just getting started, no need to fret. We will get some good TCs this year, I just know it.
(sorry if I sound a little too eager but I just have some gut inside saying that it's gonna be a good hurricane season!)


Weren't we hearing such things in '10 just before Danielle?
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
2 PM NHC Discussion will be especially interesting.
Link NHC Tropical Weather Page
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Quoting kwgirl:
Odd you should mention that. I was discussing with my friend how lizards are small now and used to be huge, when mammals were small. I wondered what entity would be big the next go round and figured it would be insects. Imagine huge fire ants!
Those ugly Bufo toads are disgusting...... How could they ever get a boyfriend??
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5819
Quoting sar2401:


That's weird part. It's been extremely dry here, and the fire ants have been eating OrthoMax like it's lunch. I've treated the yard three times since spring and they still keep coming. It think it has something to do with that end of the world thing that's supposed to happen in December. I think we'll all die from fire ant attacks. :)
Odd you should mention that. I was discussing with my friend how lizards are small now and used to be huge, when mammals were small. I wondered what entity would be big the next go round and figured it would be insects. Imagine huge fire ants!
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Quoting mcluvincane:


Not just td7, it's the entire tropics. Not much happening this year. I honestly thought this would be a good year to track some descent cylcones. Not gonna happen


The season is just getting started, no need to fret. We will get some good TCs this year, I just know it.
(sorry if I sound a little too eager but I just have some gut inside saying that it's gonna be a good hurricane season!)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A little spin south of Jamaica but no lower level vorticity per the latest CIMSS chart. Convection in that area is being enhanced by the big ULL/Tutt cell just off to the blob's NW near Cuba (below at the 200 mb level). It should dissipate by later this evening or tomorrow......Worth watching it to see if it is still there tomorrow.

200 mb ULL:

Link
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8785
So i see the blog was overrun by ants...well my kitchen was overrun by ants a a few times, but we dont have any more ants than normal outside....what's that supposed to mean?
Boring weather for me?
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Did someone give 07 Pottery's address?
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Rock Pythons are the worst. I know US snakes very well, had no idea though that a ten foot rock python could kill a grown man. Scary snake. Stories of them eating kids and women in Africa, but a full grown could eat a man it looks like. Killer bees in Florida, vampire bats in Texas now. Invasive species causing havoc on so many fronts here in the Midwest, I don't even know where to start. Brown Recluse on the move north too. July was the hottest July ever in the US. Drought only increases more and more. Global Warming has so many gifts to give. And we're paying for them.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
wonder why all these models are trending further north? I thought the fast trade winds and dry air would keep it a weak circulation causing it move more w or wsw. weird.
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
Looking this good means 93L due for an upgrade IMO

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Link Check out Pensacola Radar
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12z CMC with TD7..

168 hours


180 hours
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14451
385. Skyepony (Mod)
Partial pass of 07L ~14N 48W..

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is it just me or are the models just jog northward?
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
383. TXCWC
One thing the GFS has been consistently showing is eventual beneficial rains to areas that need it.

12Z 5-10day rainfall


10-15 day rain
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Quoting JasonRE:
I come here to follow the weather because it's the most informative site I know of.

I'm located in Lafayette LA and so far this year has been a bust. Don't get me wrong, I don't like damage to anyone's home, property, but I am fascinated with storms. It's so interesting to watch them develop.

Does anyone see a storm hitting the Gulf this year? I see this TD-7 is heading pretty much where Ernesto hit but could it make any turn Northerly at all before it hits land? Haven't had any real activity since 09 here.
Unfortunately, my crystal ball is down for repairs. Maybe someone else on here can help you out with the future.
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No
Quoting kshipre1:
there's a 94L?
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Quoting VAstorms:


I don't know if they are in Florida but Magpies look a lot like Mynahs and can talk as well.


Could have been a mynah. Haven't seen any magpies, although they are very similar. Nice site here Link has pics of Florida birds.
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BTW, it might be worth the trouble of looking at the WV loop for the last few hours... very instructional...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21485
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Not much chance. The trek through the Caribean will be under about as adverse conditions as you can get. If you've ever seen the movie Monty Python and The Holy Grail think of the scene with King Arthur and the Black Knight, with TD7 playing the role of the black knight.
As long as it is not David Hasselhoff... Ooops... Guess I got got confuse with "Knight Rider"
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5819
Quoting WhoDatRR:
Grackle? If so, it belongs in the neighborhood. Though I doubt y'all get the flocks of thousands, as we do. Seriously, had about a thousand in my yard, a month or so ago. They're noisy as hell, and can mimic sounds like a parrot. I put out chicken feed and it's gone before my girls get a couple pecks in. They do look a lot like a Mynah. Not invasive, just inconvenient... LOL

We have a couple flocks of Alexander Parakeets, around Austin. They're not really a problem, and I actually love seeing them fly around. There was once an indigeounous parrot (Carolina parakeet), that was hunted to extinction. So, the way I see it, they alexander parakeets are just filling that void. But yeah, invasive species can be a problem.



All subspecies of Garackels have dark colored beaks Mynahs have yellow or light collored beaks but do look similar.
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 255
TD7 will be joining bouy Station 41040 later this evening or tonight should keep an eye one it
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11023
there's a 94L?
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
374. VR46L
Quoting 7544:
94L below cuba soon might be a spin there?

Possibly....


Link



Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.