Little change to TD 7; 93L may develop off the coast of Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:57 PM GMT on August 10, 2012

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Tropical Depression Seven continues westward across the central tropical Atlantic with little change in appearance. Looking remarkably like the tropical depression that became Tropical Storm Ernesto last week, TD 7 has a limited region of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. A large amount of dry air to the west and north is visible on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is interfering with TD 7's heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a light 5 - 10 knots, which is favorable for intensification. Ocean temperatures are 26.5°C, which is a bit on the cool side, but these temperatures are 0.5° warmer than on Thursday. Winds at the Middle Atlantic buoy 41041 peaked at 29 mph, gusting to 38 mph, at 1:50 am EDT this Friday morning, when the center of TD 7 passed about 40 miles to the south. TD 7 will pass about 60 miles south of buoy 41040 near midnight tonight. The first hurricane hunter mission into TD 7 is scheduled for Saturday morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 7.

Forecast for TD 7
TD 7 formed about 400 miles east-northeast of where Ernesto became a tropical depression, as seen on our wundermap. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are currently quite similar to what Ernesto experienced, and I expect TD 7 will struggle with dry air like Ernesto did. The SHIPS model predicts that shear will remain light through tonight, then rise to the moderate range on Saturday, when the storm will encounter upper-level southwesterly winds associated with a trough of low pressure. However, ocean temperatures will warm to 28°C, which may partially counteract the increase in shear, as far as maintaining a favorable environment for development. Dry air and shear may be significant enough to destroy TD 7 on Sunday, as predicted by the GFS and ECMWF models. These models tried to kill off Ernesto in a similar situation last week, so I am inclined to believe TD 7 will survive for the coming five days, but struggle. The official NHC forecast of a 45 mph tropical storm moving through the Lesser Antilles Islands Saturday night and Sunday is a reasonable one.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

93L
A strong tropical wave in the far Eastern Atlantic that emerged off the coast of Africa Thursday night was designated Invest 93L by NHC. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L a 50% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Sunday morning. Satellite loops show a pronounced spin to the atmosphere at mid levels, but little in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis from the University of Wisconsin shows that while the atmosphere immediately surrounding the disturbance is moist, there is a large area of dry air from the Sahara to the west and north. This dry air will be a significant impediment to development during the coming week. The ECMWF model shows some weak development of 93L over the coming week, and predicts a general west-northwesterly track. The storm may be something Bermuda needs to be concerned about in eight or so days.

I'll have a new post this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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Caribbean - Rainbow Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
Quoting Patrap:
A Good Ol ATT Bell Rotary Dial sound powered is a must for all Hurricane Home Plans.



not if you dont know how to call someone on it....
bunch of random twists....hope you got a number? idk

Can i get a number pad?
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Quoting quasistationary:


Link


Thats a blog not a weather/forecasting site.
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Quoting tornadodude:
12z GFS taking the remnants of Ernesto up the Gulf of California?

td7s.future.too?
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TD 7 RGB

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

They're only calling because youre in a battle ground state, and BIG BROTHER wants to know if which color you want to turn the state, in November... Blue or Red.
Dean..... I just want to retire and live in Islamorada and drink Caribbean Punch and spend my time diving. That's all
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5842
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
93L not developing right away means it won't go as far north as fast as it would have if it completely developed. If it stays shallow until north of the Islands it can be a threat.


Nope. The farther north a storm system exits Africa the greater the pull to the north, regardless of strength.

You're right, though, when a system developes closer to the equator and remains weak the nature is for it to move more westerly. 93L is just already too far north.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
There are still plenty of weather sites out there, Crown Weather, Intellicast, Accuweater, WeatherTap, Weather Bug to name a few.


Can't forget Big Joe and WeatherBell.
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:


I agree; posted it because some folks were asking about the "blob". With the African wave down to 30% now; all eyes turn back for the time being to "The Artist Formerly Known as Ernesto" in the E-Pac and his Cousin TD7.......
I know that guy............Prince... Now Snoop Dog is Snoop Lion. How do they keep their credit cards in order.
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5842
There are still plenty of weather sites out there, Crown Weather, Intellicast, Accuweater, WeatherTap, Weather Bug to name a few.
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Non weather question here..... Are you all getting up to 5 calls a day on your land line wanting to know who you are voting for in the upcoming elections.? This is the worst I have ever seen.. What is scary they know that you voted, and for what party............."BIG BROTHER" If I never voted they would not bother me.

They're only calling because youre in a battle ground state, and BIG BROTHER wants to know if which color you want to turn the state, in November... Blue or Red.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Just a rain threat... dont expect 94L from this...


I agree; posted it because some folks were asking about the "blob". With the African wave down to 30% now; all eyes turn back for the time being to "The Artist Formerly Known as Ernesto" in the E-Pac and his Cousin TD7.......
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Accuweather and Weather Bug are still around...this isnt even close to a monopoly.


Trying...

That was the key word in that statement.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Ouch.. 93L down to 30%.
Well that blows up my prediction.
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Quoting Patrap:
A Good Ol ATT Bell Rotary Dial sound powered is a must for all Hurricane Home Plans.

Or the ever popular Pink Princess phone in the 60's
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5842
A Good Ol ATT Bell Rotary Dial sound powered is a must for all Hurricane Home Plans.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
Quoting MississippiWx:


Sounds like TWC is trying to get a monopoly on all weather agencies, other than NWS.


Yeah, then Google will buy TWC and continue trying to become our new "online" government. - Sponsored Ad
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12 GFS Ensemble spread

look at those blobs..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15137
Quoting 954FtLCane:


whats a land line?
A house phone.....not a cell phone
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5842
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
If I was Accuweather, i'd at least merge with WeatherBug, if i dont completely just buy them out.
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Non weather question here..... Are you all getting up to 5 calls a day on your land line wanting to know who you are voting for in the upcoming elections.? This is the worst I have ever seen.. What is scary they know that you voted, and for what party............."BIG BROTHER" If I never voted they would not bother me.


whats a land line?
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Anybody else get bored by that same old shtick.

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93L not developing right away means it won't go as far north as fast as it would have if it completely developed. If it stays shallow until north of the Islands it can be a threat.
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ex-Ernesto's new designation:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep942012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208101740
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 94, 2012, DB, O, 2012081018, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP942012
EP, 94, 2012081018, , BEST, 0, 175N, 1025W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Here is part of the Noonish NCEP Caribbean Desk discussion that mentions enhanced rain chances for the Caribbean between the big Tutt cell near Cuba (which is enhancing the convection between the Jamaican blob and Florida) which is interacting with the Jamaican wave and, the subsequent arrival of TD7:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1233 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO BE MOSTLY MODULATED BY PASSING TROPICAL WAVE IN INTERACTION WITH POTENT TUTT
INITIALLY (SEE BELOW FOR ACCUMULATIONS). LATER IN THE CYCLE...A SURGE IN PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN (SEE THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WEBSITE FOR DETAILS). ALTHOUGH EXACT LOCATION OF AREAS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN DUE TO MODEL SOLUTION DIVERGENCE...FORECASTING CURRENTLY AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN INTERACTION WITH OROGRAPHY. ALSO...NOTE THAT ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON STORM TRACK/INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WILL BE NEEDED IN COMING DAYS.

PERTURBATIONS IN THE EASTERLIES...INITIALIZED AT 12UTC

INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 TYPE
83W 86W 88W 90W 92W ILL DEFINED TW

A TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS INTERACTED WITH STRONG TUTT OVER CUBA AND TROUGHS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS INITIALIZED AT 83W. THIS WAVE WILL MODULATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY ACROSS WESTERN CUBA THROUGH 36 HRS. ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY ALSO THROUGH 36 HRS. WAVE WILL ALSO ENHANCE ACCUMULATIONS IN CENTRAL AMERICA IN COMPLEX INTERACTIONS WITH TROUGHS IN THE PACIFIC. FOR ACCUMULATIONS SEE ABOVE.

CANTILLO...IDEAM (COLOMBIA)
SOLANO...IMN (COSTA RICA)
GALVEZ...HPC (USA)



Just a rain threat... dont expect 94L from this...
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Sounds like TWC is trying to get a monopoly on all weather agencies, other than NWS.


Accuweather and Weather Bug are still around...this isnt even close to a monopoly.
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NHC, come on keep it real, Ernesto is a TS now without a doubt imo. Looking for the NHC to come out with the statement that Ernesto did the rare feat of making the crossover. Ernesto never changed entities, COC didn't die, it simply relocated.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
Well... Looks like TWC is taking over... Accuweather is probably shaking in its boots right now.


TWC could buy Accuweather and turn it into a weather version of The Onion. So it'll be pretty much steady as she goes for them.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Non weather question here..... Are you all getting up to 5 calls a day on your land line wanting to know who you are voting for in the upcoming elections.? This is the worst I have ever seen.. What is scary they know that you voted, and for what party............."BIG BROTHER" If I never voted they would not bother me.
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5842
Here is part of the Noonish NCEP Caribbean Desk discussion that mentions enhanced rain chances for the Caribbean between the big Tutt cell near Cuba (which is enhancing the convection between the Jamaican blob and Florida) which is interacting with the Jamaican wave and, the subsequent arrival of TD7:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1233 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO BE MOSTLY MODULATED BY PASSING TROPICAL WAVE IN INTERACTION WITH POTENT TUTT INITIALLY (SEE BELOW FOR ACCUMULATIONS). LATER IN THE CYCLE...A SURGE IN PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN (SEE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WEBSITE FOR DETAILS). ALTHOUGH EXACT LOCATION OF AREAS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN DUE TO MODEL SOLUTION DIVERGENCE...FORECASTING CURRENTLY AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN INTERACTION WITH OROGRAPHY. ALSO...NOTE THAT ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON STORM TRACK/INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WILL BE NEEDED IN COMING DAYS.

A TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS INTERACTED WITH STRONG TUTT OVER CUBA AND TROUGHS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS INITIALIZED AT 83W. THIS WAVE WILL MODULATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY ACROSS WESTERN CUBA THROUGH 36 HRS. ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY ALSO THROUGH 36 HRS. WAVE WILL ALSO ENHANCE ACCUMULATIONS IN CENTRAL AMERICA IN COMPLEX INTERACTIONS WITH TROUGHS IN THE PACIFIC. FOR ACCUMULATIONS SEE ABOVE.

CANTILLO...IDEAM (COLOMBIA)
SOLANO...IMN (COSTA RICA)
GALVEZ...HPC (USA)


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Well... Looks like TWC is taking over... Accuweather is probably shaking in its boots right now.
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LOL the air in the blog just went completely dead hahaha
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it's back.....
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Quoting wn1995:
1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS DIMINISHING NEAR A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE LOW IS MOVING TOWARD COLDER WATER...
AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
APPEARS TO BE DECREASING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

Oh wow...
Umm... No comment?
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Ouch.. 93L down to 30%.


Nothing special about 93L. When it emerged so far north, it was done for a while.
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Quoting JeffMasters:
Weather Channel company acquires Madison's Weather Central

MADISON — Weather Central, of Madison, is now part of the company that owns the Weather Channel.

Weather Central has been purchased by Weather Services International, part of the Weather Channel Cos. of Andover, Mass. Its holdings include the Weather Channel, the popular TV channel that provides nationwide weather coverage 24 hours a day.

Terms of the deal between the two privately owned companies were not disclosed.

There's no name yet for the combined company of Weather Central and WSI.

"The Weather Central brand will stay for the foreseeable future," spokeswoman Shirley Powell said.

link

TWC is assembling some pretty formidable resources.

Jeff Masters


Sounds like TWC is trying to get a monopoly on all weather agencies, other than NWS.
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Ouch.. 93L down to 30%.
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Quoting wn1995:
1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS DIMINISHING NEAR A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE LOW IS MOVING TOWARD COLDER WATER...
AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
APPEARS TO BE DECREASING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.



uppppsssss
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Doppler........... I don't think "anyone" thinks this season is a bust, or even close to being over.... Please don't make me quote Yogi Berra again.

ok sorry.......... :p
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NHC keeping it real at 2pm lol.
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Quoting Doppler22:
To all the people who think this season is a bust or is gonna be a bust....... Hello its August 10th
The season ends November 30th
We have most of August, September and who knows maybe even october and november to get big storms... and...... b careful what u wish for... i know that first hand :p


100% agree.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS DIMINISHING NEAR A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE LOW IS MOVING TOWARD COLDER WATER...
AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
APPEARS TO BE DECREASING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Doppler22:
To all the people who think this season is a bust or is gonna be a bust....... Hello its August 10th
The season ends November 30th
We have most of August, September and who knows maybe even october and november to get big storms... and...... b careful what u wish for... i know that first hand :p
Doppler........... I don't think "anyone" thinks this season is a bust, or even close to being over.... Please don't make me quote Yogi Berra again.
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5842
Quoting JeffMasters:
Weather Channel company acquires Madison's Weather Central

MADISON — Weather Central, of Madison, is now part of the company that owns the Weather Channel.

Weather Central has been purchased by Weather Services International, part of the Weather Channel Cos. of Andover, Mass. Its holdings include the Weather Channel, the popular TV channel that provides nationwide weather coverage 24 hours a day.

Terms of the deal between the two privately owned companies were not disclosed.

There's no name yet for the combined company of Weather Central and WSI.

"The Weather Central brand will stay for the foreseeable future," spokeswoman Shirley Powell said.

link

TWC is assembling some pretty formidable resources.

Jeff Masters



saw this a while back.
Should be interesting
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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