Little change to TD 7; 93L may develop off the coast of Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:57 PM GMT on August 10, 2012

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Tropical Depression Seven continues westward across the central tropical Atlantic with little change in appearance. Looking remarkably like the tropical depression that became Tropical Storm Ernesto last week, TD 7 has a limited region of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. A large amount of dry air to the west and north is visible on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is interfering with TD 7's heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a light 5 - 10 knots, which is favorable for intensification. Ocean temperatures are 26.5°C, which is a bit on the cool side, but these temperatures are 0.5° warmer than on Thursday. Winds at the Middle Atlantic buoy 41041 peaked at 29 mph, gusting to 38 mph, at 1:50 am EDT this Friday morning, when the center of TD 7 passed about 40 miles to the south. TD 7 will pass about 60 miles south of buoy 41040 near midnight tonight. The first hurricane hunter mission into TD 7 is scheduled for Saturday morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 7.

Forecast for TD 7
TD 7 formed about 400 miles east-northeast of where Ernesto became a tropical depression, as seen on our wundermap. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are currently quite similar to what Ernesto experienced, and I expect TD 7 will struggle with dry air like Ernesto did. The SHIPS model predicts that shear will remain light through tonight, then rise to the moderate range on Saturday, when the storm will encounter upper-level southwesterly winds associated with a trough of low pressure. However, ocean temperatures will warm to 28°C, which may partially counteract the increase in shear, as far as maintaining a favorable environment for development. Dry air and shear may be significant enough to destroy TD 7 on Sunday, as predicted by the GFS and ECMWF models. These models tried to kill off Ernesto in a similar situation last week, so I am inclined to believe TD 7 will survive for the coming five days, but struggle. The official NHC forecast of a 45 mph tropical storm moving through the Lesser Antilles Islands Saturday night and Sunday is a reasonable one.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

93L
A strong tropical wave in the far Eastern Atlantic that emerged off the coast of Africa Thursday night was designated Invest 93L by NHC. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L a 50% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Sunday morning. Satellite loops show a pronounced spin to the atmosphere at mid levels, but little in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis from the University of Wisconsin shows that while the atmosphere immediately surrounding the disturbance is moist, there is a large area of dry air from the Sahara to the west and north. This dry air will be a significant impediment to development during the coming week. The ECMWF model shows some weak development of 93L over the coming week, and predicts a general west-northwesterly track. The storm may be something Bermuda needs to be concerned about in eight or so days.

I'll have a new post this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting dfwstormwatch:
Link

Yaaaaa about your "El Nino" have fun sitting on the sidelines why we enjoy our above average season

slightly* above average season
still more enjoyable than a 2006-09 season :)
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A quick shout out to the all the wonderful bloggers on here for all their amazing information and analysis during hurricane season. I have been a constant lurker here for many years and certainly appreciate all of the insight shared here.

My quick thoughts on TD7, threat to GOM in a few days if it can survive the dry air and shear. Water temps are too high for this to just go away.

Thoughts on ridging and track for TD7 if it reaches far enough west?
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


certainly not for a good team like the Saints...


Fixed that for ya.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5891
Quoting mcluvincane:
One can almost hear a faint voice coming from the fat lady on the hurricane season, guess she's looking at the euro and GFS lol. The conus will more than likely be spared yet once again from a strong hurricane, something i think will be a trend for a few more years which is a good thing. I was hoping for a tropical system to help out with the drought but that just ain't going to happen with this set up. The door was open for a CONUS strike but now has quickly shut. The strong high has broken down allowing for recurvature to happen. The trade winds in the Caribbean are way to high to allow a storm to develope. El nino will be arriving soon also (officially), it's already hear if u ask me but that will more than likely put the final nail in this years hurricane season. Putting away my tracking charts, deleting my tracking software and I'm done this year.
Even the Noaa is predicting more storms for this season.
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Quoting mcluvincane:
One can almost hear a faint voice coming from the fat lady on the hurricane season, guess she's looking at the euro and GFS lol. The conus will more than likely be spared yet once again from a strong hurricane, something i think will be a trend for a few more years which is a good thing. I was hoping for a tropical system to help out with the drought but that just ain't going to happen with this set up. The door was open for a CONUS strike but now has quickly shut. The strong high has broken down allowing for recurvature to happen. The trade winds in the Caribbean are way to high to allow a storm to develope. El nino will be arriving soon also (officially), it's already hear if u ask me but that will more than likely put the final nail in this years hurricane season. Putting away my tracking charts, deleting my tracking software and I'm done this year.

Todays date: August 10th, still lots of time left and the wave train is getting into full swing. We aren't even in peak season yet. Rethink that and don't give up of forget about this hurricane season.
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Quoting mcluvincane:
One can almost hear a faint voice coming from the fat lady on the hurricane season, guess she's looking at the euro and GFS lol. The conus will more than likely be spared yet once again from a strong hurricane, something i think will be a trend for a few more years which is a good thing. I was hoping for a tropical system to help out with the drought but that just ain't going to happen with this set up. The door was open for a CONUS strike but now has quickly shut. The strong high has broken down allowing for recurvature to happen. The trade winds in the Caribbean are way to high to allow a storm to develope. El nino will be arriving soon also (officially), it's already hear if u ask me but that will more than likely put the final nail in this years hurricane season. Putting away my tracking charts, deleting my tracking software and I'm done this year.

Who called Debby Downer?
Get her, the hell outta here...
Like about 5 other people in the past week... IGNORED
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Quoting Coastalgramps:



Have you ever created a "forecast" that doesn't involve a system coming straight for the Cayman islands?

now you listen old man I am not foecasting it to go to cayman so sshhh and sit down


Quoting HurricaneDean07:

The Set-up would have to be Perfect...
Still possible, but not likely at this time...

ah you hit the key words

at this time
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Quoting mcluvincane:
One can almost hear a faint voice coming from the fat lady on the hurricane season, guess she's looking at the euro and GFS lol. The conus will more than likely be spared yet once again from a strong hurricane, something i think will be a trend for a few more years which is a good thing. I was hoping for a tropical system to help out with the drought but that just ain't going to happen with this set up. The door was open for a CONUS strike but now has quickly shut. The strong high has broken down allowing for recurvature to happen. The trade winds in the Caribbean are way to high to allow a storm to develope. El nino will be arriving soon also (officially), it's already hear if u ask me but that will more than likely put the final nail in this years hurricane season. Putting away my tracking charts, deleting my tracking software and I'm done this year.

Good. Please delete your link to this blog while you're at it, since you won't need to log on here, either.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5891
Link
Quoting mcluvincane:
One can almost hear a faint voice coming from the fat lady on the hurricane season, guess she's looking at the euro and GFS lol. The conus will more than likely be spared yet once again from a strong hurricane, something i think will be a trend for a few more years which is a good thing. I was hoping for a tropical system to help out with the drought but that just ain't going to happen with this set up. The door was open for a CONUS strike but now has quickly shut. The strong high has broken down allowing for recurvature to happen. The trade winds in the Caribbean are way to high to allow a storm to develope. El nino will be arriving soon also (officially), it's already hear if u ask me but that will more than likely put the final nail in this years hurricane season. Putting away my tracking charts, deleting my tracking software and I'm done this year.


Yaaaaa about your "El Nino" have fun sitting on the sidelines why we enjoy our above average season
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting mcluvincane:
One can almost hear a faint voice coming from the fat lady on the hurricane season, guess she's looking at the euro and GFS lol. The conus will more than likely be spared yet once again from a strong hurricane, something i think will be a trend for a few more years which is a good thing. I was hoping for a tropical system to help out with the drought but that just ain't going to happen with this set up. The door was open for a CONUS strike but now has quickly shut. The strong high has broken down allowing for recurvature to happen. The trade winds in the Caribbean are way to high to allow a storm to develope. El nino will be arriving soon also (officially), it's already hear if u ask me but that will more than likely put the final nail in this years hurricane season. Putting away my tracking charts, deleting my tracking software and I'm done this year.


Dude.. It's August.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

The Set-up would have to be Perfect...
Still possible, but not likely at this time...

What I mean by that is, that a set-up like that would mean good enough conditions to intensify, which is not exactly what is expected as it crosses the caribbean.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


You don't think it staying shallow will help it? I mean look how strong that high is moving 07L if it stays shallow shouldnt it hitch the same ride?
93L would actually be steered by the A/B High and move in tandem with it until it reaches a weakness which looks to develop around 60 W, since it is already more farther north the chances of this happening seem really good as well as history would suggest it. TD7 is also being steered by the A/B High but right now it is farther south and west of 93L and will continue to travel westward until it reaches the western Caribbean where either one of two things will happen the Sonoran High will take over steering and continue moving TD 7 westward or a trough will pull it into the GOM.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

wow ok you guys can't listen must be deaf look as that ULL in the NW caribbean moves N the one N of TD7 moves S the caribbean will still have lower shear its like this
this is what I think could happen and it you think about it is does seen like it could


Actually, the ULL in the Western Caribbean is more likely to push west, since there is a trough coming to the east coast. Also, TD7 already has an anticyclone. But the TUTT isn't forecast to do much except create shear.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5891
Quoting mcluvincane:
One can almost hear a faint voice coming from the fat lady on the hurricane season, guess she's looking at the euro and GFS lol. The conus will more than likely be spared yet once again from a strong hurricane, something i think will be a trend for a few more years which is a good thing. I was hoping for a tropical system to help out with the drought but that just ain't going to happen with this set up. The door was open for a CONUS strike but now has quickly shut. The strong high has broken down allowing for recurvature to happen. The trade winds in the Caribbean are way to high to allow a storm to develope. El nino will be arriving soon also (officially), it's already hear if u ask me but that will more than likely put the final nail in this years hurricane season. Putting away my tracking charts, deleting my tracking software and I'm done this year.


fatladycaster
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
One can almost hear a faint voice coming from the fat lady on the hurricane season, guess she's looking at the euro and GFS lol. The conus will more than likely be spared yet once again from a strong hurricane, something i think will be a trend for a few more years which is a good thing. I was hoping for a tropical system to help out with the drought but that just ain't going to happen with this set up. The door was open for a CONUS strike but now has quickly shut. The strong high has broken down allowing for recurvature to happen. The trade winds in the Caribbean are way to high to allow a storm to develope. El nino will be arriving soon also (officially), it's already here if u ask me but that will more than likely put the final nail in this years hurricane season. Putting away my tracking charts, deleting my tracking software and I'm done this year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

wow ok you guys can't listen must be deaf look as that ULL in the NW caribbean moves N the one N of TD7 moves S the caribbean will still have lower shear its like this
this is what I think could happen and it you think about it is does seen like it could


The Set-up would have to be Perfect...
Still possible, but not likely at this time...
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

wow ok you guys can't listen must be deaf look as that ULL in the NW caribbean moves N the one N of TD7 moves S the caribbean will still have lower shear its like this
this is what I think could happen and it you think about it is does seen like it could




Have you ever created a "forecast" that doesn't involve a system coming straight for the Cayman islands?
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At this rate, they will probably be issuing TS watches and/or warnings for Barbados (first in line) and the rest of the Lesser Antilles by 5:00 pm or 11:00 pm at the latest.
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Quoting jascott1967:


The conditions ahead of TD7 are not any better and are actually worse than what Ernesto encountered. There's more dry air in front of TD7 and a ULL is racing down from the north which will cause high shear for TD7 before it makes it to the Lesser Antilles. It is extremely likely that TD7 will be destroyed before it makes it to the western Caribbean.

wow ok you guys can't listen must be deaf look as that ULL in the NW caribbean moves N the one N of TD7 moves S the caribbean will still have lower shear its like this
this is what I think could happen and it you think about it is does seen like it could

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Full tropical update blog
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if td 7 is not name Gordon today or tomorrow morning it may never will.
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Quoting DrMickey:

Big R on that; TWC is controlled by Bain Corp.


so?
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Looks better. I could see this being Gordon at 5PM if it persist.


lol. Pathetic Gordon
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Quoting Articuno:

Not saying this will happen, but what if 93L reforms with the wave south of it?

Not likely...
The main area of low pressure, and well defined circulation are fully associated with one another NE of the CV islands and relocation would not be too plausible to occur...
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Actually its Bain and Blackstone Group.

But we have them on a short leash up in da Ivory Towers.


TD 7 Rainbow Loop



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Looks better. I could see this being Gordon at 5PM if it persists.

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Quoting Grothar:

Not saying this will happen, but what if 93L reforms with the wave south of it?
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

The Weather CHANNEL was bought by NBC. You can figure it out, from there.



well that might seem democrat to some people, but some people can only see Bain everywhere and think that is soemhow bad..and republican
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Quoting kwgirl:
Maybe they are buying up all the weather stations so they can CONTROL THE WEATHER! LOL Or at least the information about the weather. Conspiracies everywhere. I wonder if TWC is Republican or Democrat???

Big R on that; TWC is controlled by Bain Corp.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


And?


AND it's going to be really difficult for him to transfer NOW...pretty crappy move, IMO....

Another 100 degree weather day in Central Texas...where NO Longhorns have been arrested this week!
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Quoting kwgirl:
Maybe they are buying up all the weather stations so they can CONTROL THE WEATHER! LOL Or at least the information about the weather. Conspiracies everywhere. I wonder if TWC is Republican or Democrat???


why should it matter?
What if they are neither?
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Quoting kwgirl:
Maybe they are buying up all the weather stations so they can CONTROL THE WEATHER! LOL Or at least the information about the weather. Conspiracies everywhere. I wonder if TWC is Republican or Democrat???

The Weather CHANNEL was bought by NBC. You can figure it out, from there.
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27081
Quoting jascott1967:


We may have the same ex, then. Did yours take your dignity and use it as a dish towel to force whatever was left of your soul down the drain?
That's it...........You know him
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6000
Quoting Hurricanes4life:
For 07L
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 AUG 2012 Time : 164500 UTC
Lat : 13:43:23 N Lon : 50:01:35 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 /1003.5mb/ 47.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 3.2 3.6

Center Temp : -48.0C Cloud Region Temp : -47.8C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.79 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Im gonna call B.S.
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Not sure what you are discussing.BUT, The Honey Badger is the meanest animal on the planet.Next to my ex


We may have the same ex, then. Did yours take your dignity and use it as a dish towel to force whatever was left of your soul down the drain?
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 614
Quoting JeffMasters:
Weather Channel company acquires Madison's Weather Central

MADISON — Weather Central, of Madison, is now part of the company that owns the Weather Channel.

Weather Central has been purchased by Weather Services International, part of the Weather Channel Cos. of Andover, Mass. Its holdings include the Weather Channel, the popular TV channel that provides nationwide weather coverage 24 hours a day.

Terms of the deal between the two privately owned companies were not disclosed.

There's no name yet for the combined company of Weather Central and WSI.

"The Weather Central brand will stay for the foreseeable future," spokeswoman Shirley Powell said.

link

TWC is assembling some pretty formidable resources.

Jeff Masters
Maybe they are buying up all the weather stations so they can CONTROL THE WEATHER! LOL Or at least the information about the weather. Conspiracies everywhere. I wonder if TWC is Republican or Democrat???
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


What? I was watching football last night! I was in heaven once again.

Key word: Officially

The actual regular seasons don't start until Late August/September.
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For 07L
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 AUG 2012 Time : 164500 UTC
Lat : 13:43:23 N Lon : 50:01:35 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 /1003.5mb/ 47.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 3.2 3.6

Center Temp : -48.0C Cloud Region Temp : -47.8C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.79 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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Quoting jascott1967:


Karl Pilkington believes it would be a good idea to insert a few T-Rex's here and there to control population.


I have 6-year-old grandsons who totally agree with this! They feel they have been short-changed because they don't get to see real dinosaurs.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

This is a weather blog, not a sports blog....

Yes, some of us in here like sports (ME), but with other things to look at in the weather aspect, there is no reason to be posting things from twitter, about sports...
Besides... Football doesn't officially start until Septemeber.


sorry Taz
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Quoting 954FtLCane:
The Associated Press ‏@AP

LSU kicks Heisman finalist Tyrann Mathieu from football program for violating school and team rules. http://apne.ws/NkJaXm -DC

This is a weather blog, not a sports blog....

Yes, some of us in here like sports (ME), but with other things to look at in the weather aspect, there is no reason to be posting things from twitter, about sports...
Besides... Football doesn't officially start until Septemeber.
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Quoting jascott1967:


Karl Pilkington believes it would be a good idea to insert a few T-Rex's here and there to control population.
Don't know who he is, but my friend did mention it would have to be something that survives heat. That's insects. Or at least roaches. I imagine that ants would survive as well.
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Quoting jascott1967:


Nope. The farther north a storm system exits Africa the greater the pull to the north, regardless of strength.

You're right, though, when a system developes closer to the equator and remains weak the nature is for it to move more westerly. 93L is just already too far north.


You don't think it staying shallow will help it? I mean look how strong that high is moving 07L if it stays shallow shouldnt it hitch the same ride?
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Caribbean - Rainbow Loop
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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