Little change to TD 7; 93L may develop off the coast of Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:57 PM GMT on August 10, 2012

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Tropical Depression Seven continues westward across the central tropical Atlantic with little change in appearance. Looking remarkably like the tropical depression that became Tropical Storm Ernesto last week, TD 7 has a limited region of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. A large amount of dry air to the west and north is visible on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is interfering with TD 7's heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a light 5 - 10 knots, which is favorable for intensification. Ocean temperatures are 26.5°C, which is a bit on the cool side, but these temperatures are 0.5° warmer than on Thursday. Winds at the Middle Atlantic buoy 41041 peaked at 29 mph, gusting to 38 mph, at 1:50 am EDT this Friday morning, when the center of TD 7 passed about 40 miles to the south. TD 7 will pass about 60 miles south of buoy 41040 near midnight tonight. The first hurricane hunter mission into TD 7 is scheduled for Saturday morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 7.

Forecast for TD 7
TD 7 formed about 400 miles east-northeast of where Ernesto became a tropical depression, as seen on our wundermap. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are currently quite similar to what Ernesto experienced, and I expect TD 7 will struggle with dry air like Ernesto did. The SHIPS model predicts that shear will remain light through tonight, then rise to the moderate range on Saturday, when the storm will encounter upper-level southwesterly winds associated with a trough of low pressure. However, ocean temperatures will warm to 28°C, which may partially counteract the increase in shear, as far as maintaining a favorable environment for development. Dry air and shear may be significant enough to destroy TD 7 on Sunday, as predicted by the GFS and ECMWF models. These models tried to kill off Ernesto in a similar situation last week, so I am inclined to believe TD 7 will survive for the coming five days, but struggle. The official NHC forecast of a 45 mph tropical storm moving through the Lesser Antilles Islands Saturday night and Sunday is a reasonable one.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

93L
A strong tropical wave in the far Eastern Atlantic that emerged off the coast of Africa Thursday night was designated Invest 93L by NHC. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L a 50% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Sunday morning. Satellite loops show a pronounced spin to the atmosphere at mid levels, but little in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis from the University of Wisconsin shows that while the atmosphere immediately surrounding the disturbance is moist, there is a large area of dry air from the Sahara to the west and north. This dry air will be a significant impediment to development during the coming week. The ECMWF model shows some weak development of 93L over the coming week, and predicts a general west-northwesterly track. The storm may be something Bermuda needs to be concerned about in eight or so days.

I'll have a new post this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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Here ya go Largo I hear the boomers too.

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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Non weather question here..... Are you all getting up to 5 calls a day on your land line wanting to know who you are voting for in the upcoming elections.? This is the worst I have ever seen.. What is scary they know that you voted, and for what party............."BIG BROTHER" If I never voted they would not bother me.
which makes the voter id fraud claims I've heard even more specious... wonder if such calls are actually designed to turn potential voters off from voting... or if they have legal access / rights to be soliciting the info... they don't do that kind of stuff here... the current fave is having listeners call in to talk shows to say who they would vote for...

BTW, it's clearing here for the nonce... saw a glimmer of sun a few minutes ago... lol... first time today...

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anyone here from NY?..how is it up there?.......................BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
247 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SUFFOLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

* AT 243 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER HOUR...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING ON ROADWAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER
DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR
IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...
DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...
EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT. TO ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER
GROUND.



LAT...LON 4107 7185 4072 7289 4097 7291 4099 7263
4117 7225 4116 7223 4112 7226 4112 7233
4105 7226 4104 7220 4107 7216 4102 7212
4102 7211 4103 7211 4108 7211 4113 7213
4113 7212 4110 7207 4100 7210 4108 7196


SEARS
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33291
TD7 Should be TS Gordon at 4pm imo., Just want to say the Difference between TD7 and Ernesto, Td7 though smaller has a much better defined tighter LLC IMO.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I'm surprised how few people are interested in Ernesto making the transition from one basin to another... This doesn't happen all that often, it's a pretty cool event IMO:

It would have been amazing if it has retain Ernesto as a name instead they would name it Hector when it strength.
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I'm hearing thunder.......Need to go check the local radar..BRB
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Quoting allancalderini:
anyone think Gordon will come at the 6pm advisory?

18z ATCF update kept it a TD so most likely not.
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Quoting SouthTampa:
NWS says they're drifting to the NE at 5 mph. It looks as if the sea breeze has pushed east of Tampa on the high-def radar.
..ok, man its Booming here now, one just shook my house lol..strong thunderstorms for sure
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33291
Quoting washingtonian115:
Why the hell are we talking about politics?.And your right GTcooolibai.

Nobody should since we got TD7, 93L, epac Gilma and 94E.
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Quoting jrweatherman:
For those who can't handle the truth - I've got more:)


" A few Good Men" LOL
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Quoting LargoFl:
.................................it looks like it IS the wave that is going to cross florida and into the gulf, going to be a wild and wet weekend..big boomers just to the east of me now, seems to be headed back this way, cant tell the clouds are moving so slow,tampa must be getting it good right now
NWS says they're drifting to the NE at 5 mph. It looks as if the sea breeze has pushed east of Tampa on the high-def radar.
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anyone think Gordon will come at the 5pm advisory?
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
229 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

FLZ055-060-101915-
MANATEE-SARASOTA-
229 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN SARASOTA AND WEST
CENTRAL MANATEE COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
LOCATED NEAR FRUITVILLE...OR NEAR SARASOTA...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH...
WILL AFFECT FRUITVILLE...SAINT ARMANDS KEY...BEE RIDGE AND
SARASOTA...UNTIL 315 PM EDT.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 75 BETWEEN EXITS 205 AND 224.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW
SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA
SIZE HAIL. WHEN DRIVING THROUGH HEAVY RAIN...SLOW DOWN. ALWAYS LEAVE
A SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN YOU AND OTHER VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 2756 8241 2729 8235 2723 8254 2735 8260
2734 8256 2739 8257 2742 8260 2738 8262
2742 8261 2743 8264 2748 8267
TIME...MOT...LOC 1829Z 162DEG 5KT 2734 8247

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33291
Why the hell are we talking about politics?.And your right GTcooolibai.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15707
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
SS. I was diving in Key Largo a few weeks ago. On the bay side. Saw quite a few lionfish there.... Here in Palm Beach county we have regular lionfish roundups... We are getting hundreds of them.... Very scary.
SS , Looks a a problem that is going to be tough to stop... Very nasty fish
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18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
TD #7

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)





Early Model Wind Forecasts

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Extensively using the ignore list with the politics today.
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Quoting LargoFl:
.................................it looks like it IS the wave that is going to cross florida and into the gulf, going to be a wild and wet weekend..big boomers just to the east of me now, seems to be headed back this way, cant tell the clouds are moving so slow,tampa must be getting it good right now
This has become the new normal it seems a tropical wave every week to enhance our rainfall.
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6.3 earthquake in the Aleutian Islands.



TSUNAMI SEISMIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NWS WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER PALMER AK
1040 AM AKDT FRI AUG 10 2012

...THIS IS AN INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EVALUATION
AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH A MAGNITUDE SUCH THAT A TSUNAMI
IS NOT EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY WCATWC MESSAGE ISSUED
FOR THIS EVENT.

PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
MAGNITUDE - 6.3
TIME - 1038 AKDT AUG 10 2012
1138 PDT AUG 10 2012
1838 UTC AUG 10 2012
LOCATION - 52.6 NORTH 167.4 WEST
70 MILES/113 KM SE OF NIKOLSKI ALASKA
400 MILES/644 KM E OF ADAK ALASKA
DEPTH - 19 MILES/31 KM

THE LOCATION AND MAGNITUDE ARE BASED ON PRELIMINARY INFORMATION.
FURTHER INFORMATION WILL BE ISSUED BY THE UNITED STATES
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY - EARTHQUAKE.USGS.GOV - OR THE APPROPRIATE
REGIONAL SEISMIC NETWORK.

$$
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Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:


... and you have been reported as well. TROPICAL WEATHER... not politics
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:


... and you have been reported as well. TROPICAL WEATHER... not politics
Blog police or what? Ignore it
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.................................it looks like it IS the wave that is going to cross florida and into the gulf, going to be a wild and wet weekend..big boomers just to the east of me now, seems to be headed back this way, cant tell the clouds are moving so slow,tampa must be getting it good right now
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33291
Quoting jrweatherman:
For those who can't handle the truth - I've got more:)


Go post your nonsense on a fox for kids website. This is a weather blog.
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Quoting jrweatherman:
For those who can't handle the truth - I've got more:)
If it isn't related to the tropics and weather, you had better stow it. Last chance.
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Quoting SSideBrac:


And too many people wanting bling status pets :-)

In Cayman, we are suffering badly from Lion Fish - non indigenous, no known local predators, huge potential to deplete juvenille reef fish stocks (they do make good ceviche though) - and - it is thought that they came from Florida - some pet owner emptying his/her aquarium when fish became a little bigger than originally anticipated - but who really knows????
SS. I was diving in Key Largo a few weeks ago. On the bay side. Saw quite a few lionfish there.... Here in Palm Beach county we have regular lionfish roundups... We are getting hundreds of them.... Very scary.
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I'm surprised how few people are interested in Ernesto making the transition from one basin to another... This doesn't happen all that often, it's a pretty cool event IMO:

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Quoting Patrap:
WunderBlogAdmin

WunderBlogAdmin is a generic handle used by the employees to interact with bloggers. This gives a single point of contact for our members to report issues and dispute bans.

As noted in our terms of service, Weather Underground does not maintain 24/7 watch over the blogs and administration is not real time. Administrators will deal with problems and answer notes when they can, so please be patient.
For questions about these rules please contact

WunderBlogAdmin.


How do I contact them?
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep942012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208101814
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

EP, 94, 2012081018, , BEST, 0, 170N, 1025W, 25, 1005, DB
Ernesto, gone yet renumbered.
;)

Add:


(T-5)
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Dunno about anything over 50% for 93L.
CVIs def. getting some wx from it, tho....
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Category 5 Hurricane Isaac couldn't come soon enough.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
When there is nothing major going on... and the blogs slows down... HERE COME THE POLITICS ARGUMENTS! I hate politics -__-

We have a TD and an invest, this shouldn't happen.
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588. SLU
570

WHXX01 KWBC 101840

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1840 UTC FRI AUG 10 2012



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN (AL072012) 20120810 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

120810 1800 120811 0600 120811 1800 120812 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 13.7N 50.9W 14.2N 55.0W 14.8N 59.3W 15.1N 63.7W

BAMD 13.7N 50.9W 14.1N 53.4W 15.0N 55.8W 16.1N 57.9W

BAMM 13.7N 50.9W 14.1N 53.8W 14.8N 56.8W 15.5N 59.5W

LBAR 13.7N 50.9W 13.9N 54.4W 14.4N 58.0W 15.1N 61.4W

SHIP 30KTS 32KTS 36KTS 37KTS

DSHP 30KTS 32KTS 36KTS 37KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

120812 1800 120813 1800 120814 1800 120815 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 15.5N 68.3W 16.0N 77.5W 16.4N 85.4W 17.3N 91.2W

BAMD 17.2N 59.6W 19.1N 62.6W 20.3N 65.8W 21.5N 69.1W

BAMM 16.2N 62.0W 17.4N 66.7W 18.7N 71.5W 20.4N 76.2W

LBAR 15.8N 64.5W 17.9N 69.5W 20.6N 72.8W 21.6N 76.2W

SHIP 39KTS 43KTS 51KTS 62KTS

DSHP 39KTS 43KTS 51KTS 62KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 13.7N LONCUR = 50.9W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 22KT

LATM12 = 13.6N LONM12 = 46.3W DIRM12 = 269DEG SPDM12 = 19KT

LATM24 = 13.7N LONM24 = 42.9W

WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 30KT

CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
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mcluvincane, you certainly fooled us otherwise.
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Quoting Phoenix30:
Thoughts on ridging and track for TD7 if it reaches far enough west?

Looking ahead to next week, the large north-south oriented ridge of high pressure over the western US is forecast to flatten out as a trough of low pressure pushes inland across the Pacific Northwest. In fact, by the middle of next week, the ridge is forecast to stretch east-west across the southern US, roughly from southern California to northern Florida. The models also indicate the magnitude of the ridge should weaken some during the middle and latter parts of next week.
This from our local LCRA met, Bob Rose http://www.lcra.org/water/conditions/weather/weath er_column.html
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With the MJO impact we should see a lively pickup Aug 31st~Sept.15th.

Who knows, this year we can get another September to remember.
Member Since: June 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1015
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Carolina..... Just like to know who you report something like this to?......Just curious


I don't know, isnt that what the red "!" is for? If not, then I guess I'll just leave for the blog for the day and let the right wing nut jobs run the blog with their political jargon... I don't want to be a part of it
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TD 7 Viz Loop



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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
There are so many intrusive animals and insects here in sout Florida now..Fire ants, Iguanas, Peacock bass, Oscars, Cuban lizards, Africanized bees, Now freekin' Pythons......


And too many people wanting bling status pets :-)

In Cayman, we are suffering badly from Lion Fish - non indigenous, no known local predators, huge potential to deplete juvenille reef fish stocks (they do make good ceviche though) - and - it is thought that they came from Florida - some pet owner emptying his/her aquarium when fish became a little bigger than originally anticipated - but who really knows????
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581. VR46L
Quoting OrchidGrower:
Any thoughts on the W. Caribbean blobbage? Looks nice 'n wet, but I didn't see any good outflow on it as of sat pic a few minutes ago. I'd just like to know where we think that's headed -- assuming it can hang together.


Some folks I know spotted it yesterday, around the T&C Isalnds ,therefore its moving south ... But I would doubt it will develop into much but its an interesting Cloud Of Interest in fact a nice blob



Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6613
When there is nothing major going on... and the blogs slows down... HERE COME THE POLITICS ARGUMENTS! I hate politics -__-
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How about we all stop quoting trolls and just ignore them?

I know that 2pm TWO was kind of a buzzkill but surely we can still find tropical weather related topics to talk about.
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WunderBlogAdmin

WunderBlogAdmin is a generic handle used by the employees to interact with bloggers. This gives a single point of contact for our members to report issues and dispute bans.

As noted in our terms of service, Weather Underground does not maintain 24/7 watch over the blogs and administration is not real time. Administrators will deal with problems and answer notes when they can, so please be patient.
For questions about these rules please contact

WunderBlogAdmin.
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Quoting Coastalgramps:



Have you ever created a "forecast" that doesn't involve a system coming straight for the Cayman islands?
Gramps with the hammer!
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BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep942012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208101814
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

EP, 94, 2012081018, , BEST, 0, 170N, 1025W, 25, 1005, DB
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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