Little change to TD 7; 93L may develop off the coast of Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:57 PM GMT on August 10, 2012

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Tropical Depression Seven continues westward across the central tropical Atlantic with little change in appearance. Looking remarkably like the tropical depression that became Tropical Storm Ernesto last week, TD 7 has a limited region of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. A large amount of dry air to the west and north is visible on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is interfering with TD 7's heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a light 5 - 10 knots, which is favorable for intensification. Ocean temperatures are 26.5°C, which is a bit on the cool side, but these temperatures are 0.5° warmer than on Thursday. Winds at the Middle Atlantic buoy 41041 peaked at 29 mph, gusting to 38 mph, at 1:50 am EDT this Friday morning, when the center of TD 7 passed about 40 miles to the south. TD 7 will pass about 60 miles south of buoy 41040 near midnight tonight. The first hurricane hunter mission into TD 7 is scheduled for Saturday morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 7.

Forecast for TD 7
TD 7 formed about 400 miles east-northeast of where Ernesto became a tropical depression, as seen on our wundermap. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are currently quite similar to what Ernesto experienced, and I expect TD 7 will struggle with dry air like Ernesto did. The SHIPS model predicts that shear will remain light through tonight, then rise to the moderate range on Saturday, when the storm will encounter upper-level southwesterly winds associated with a trough of low pressure. However, ocean temperatures will warm to 28°C, which may partially counteract the increase in shear, as far as maintaining a favorable environment for development. Dry air and shear may be significant enough to destroy TD 7 on Sunday, as predicted by the GFS and ECMWF models. These models tried to kill off Ernesto in a similar situation last week, so I am inclined to believe TD 7 will survive for the coming five days, but struggle. The official NHC forecast of a 45 mph tropical storm moving through the Lesser Antilles Islands Saturday night and Sunday is a reasonable one.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

93L
A strong tropical wave in the far Eastern Atlantic that emerged off the coast of Africa Thursday night was designated Invest 93L by NHC. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L a 50% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Sunday morning. Satellite loops show a pronounced spin to the atmosphere at mid levels, but little in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis from the University of Wisconsin shows that while the atmosphere immediately surrounding the disturbance is moist, there is a large area of dry air from the Sahara to the west and north. This dry air will be a significant impediment to development during the coming week. The ECMWF model shows some weak development of 93L over the coming week, and predicts a general west-northwesterly track. The storm may be something Bermuda needs to be concerned about in eight or so days.

I'll have a new post this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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Time to sit back - shrug off any prevailing "Caribbean blob phobia" and observe, identify, assess and act(as required).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaBayStormChaser:
Very nasty storm over St. Petersburg. Ominous clouds, frequent lightning, very heavy rain with flooding of streets here 1.5 miles east of First Street and north of 47th Avenue, periods of strong gusty winds driving the rain. Street flooding is the biggest issue right now. Very large raindrops some of which may have been small hail. This storm is close to severe.
oh yes been hearing all the boomers alright..stay safe down there
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Just because you don't take an interest in politics, doesn't mean they don't take an interest in you.
One of the biggest elections in our countries history is occurring in 3 months I don't understand why everyone's so up in arms about discussing it.


Maybe because this is a weather blog not a politics blog.. just saying...
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Beware the Anti-Post?

: )
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
From 2 pm discussion.

What the heck does the last sentence mean.....LOl


A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W FROM 25N
INTO COASTAL HONDURAS MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
THE WAVE IS MOVING OUT OF AND AWAY FROM THE AREA OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO-TO WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASSOCIATE
ANY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT JUST ACCOMPANIES ONLY THE
TROPICAL WAVE
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
156 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
HANCOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF DIAMONDHEAD...
SOUTH CENTRAL PEARL RIVER COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 245 PM CDT

* AT 152 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 7 MILES NORTH OF STENNIS SPACE CENTER TO STENNIS SPACE
CENTER...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
PICAYUNE TO 9 MILES SOUTH OF PICAYUNE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10
MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO KILN
AND PEARLINGTON

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

PLEASE FOLLOW OUR OFFICE ON BOTH FACEBOOK AND TWITTER FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON SEVERE WEATHER AND TO RELAY WEATHER REPORTS AND
PHOTOS.



LAT...LON 3045 8934 3038 8934 3019 8958 3031 8964
3031 8963 3034 8963 3036 8966 3041 8969
3043 8968 3060 8956
TIME...MOT...LOC 1856Z 309DEG 10KT 3047 8955 3039 8964



22/TD
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Quoting SSideBrac:


Cannot kill them quickly enough - sad but true - they seem to have found the ideal environment for success - no predators and lots of food - in between weather watching, trying to find the magic bullet of Lionfish Caviar!
Last year "they" were saying they were excellent to eat... Now I have heard "please be careful eating them"
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I don't want to discuss politics on a WEATHER BLOG!!!!!.Their is plenty other blogs to discuss this.I want to talk about weather.I have to hear my husband,dad,mother,and brothers and sisters discuss politics on the regular bases along with my co-workers.So please take it some where else.....We know politics affect us.But this isn't the place to discuss especially when their's several tropical entities out there...
..so..are you..going to stop?..post weather..
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Quoting Hurricane1956:
I just wondering is a low is trying to form south of Western Cuba,you can see a define spin in that area, a lot of moisture around,maybe another Invest?,the way things are going in the tropics now,it will not surprise me to see something developing south of Cuba,I remember a couple of days ago,the CMC model having a system forming in that area and moving North,it dosen't show it anymore but at one point it did.Will see!!


I thought I saw one there yesterday also but everyone said it was nothing just a wave...

we've been getting big storms off and on today here in SE Fla.

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Quoting washingtonian115:
Telling people to ignore trolls is like telling some people to ignore the obvious shark in the water.Lol.I still think T.D 7 has a chance to become Gordon.Especially since 93L isn't doing so well.So their's definitely a chance for it to happen into tonight and tomorrow morning before it get's ripped apart in the eastern caribbean.


Agreed on both parts.
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For the central north Pacific, between 140W and 180.

1. A gale low centered about 270 miles northwest of Midway atoll, or about 1440 miles west-northwest of Lihue Hawaii, was moving to the north-northeast at around 20 miles per hour. This system briefly had tropical characteristics and will continue to produce large areas of thunderstorms with strong and gusty winds as well as locally heavy rainfall. Environmental conditions are not conducive for tropical cyclone development within this area, and there is a low chance, near 0 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

so it was briefly TS Pewa?

Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14871
Quoting 954FtLCane:


Pretty strong storms moving into SE Fla this afternoon.
..yes i see that..supposed to move over florida this weekend..by me they have it at 50% for the weekend into monday i think
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I don't want to discuss politics on a WEATHER BLOG!!!!!.Their is plenty other blogs to discuss this.I want to talk about weather.I have to hear my husband,dad,mother,and brothers and sisters discuss politics on the regular bases along with my co-workers.So please take it some where else.....We know politics affect us.But this isn't the place to discuss especially when their's several tropical entities out there...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16421
Check the FRONTS and MSLP Boxes here

Gulf Of Mexico - Water Vapor Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
Quoting Hurricane1956:
I just wondering is a low is trying to form south of Western Cuba,you can see a define spin in that area, a lot of moisture around,maybe another Invest?,the way things are going in the tropics now,it will not surprise me to see something developing south of Cuba,I remember a couple of days ago,the CMC model having a system forming in that area and moving North,it dosen't show it anymore but at one point it did.Will see!!
..ive been watching that for days now, its a tropical wave that stalled there for what seems like a week now, there IS a watch for it there..still purple so far
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07L approaching Buoy 41040:

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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


LOL cause it bashes a liberal its nonsense? I love how thats uncalled for, but if you come in here and bash Romney and Bain its fair game and no one peeps about it.


Pretty strong storms moving into SE Fla this afternoon.
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
SS. I was diving in Key Largo a few weeks ago. On the bay side. Saw quite a few lionfish there.... Here in Palm Beach county we have regular lionfish roundups... We are getting hundreds of them.... Very scary.


Cannot kill them quickly enough - sad but true - they seem to have found the ideal environment for success - no predators and lots of food - in between weather watching, trying to find the magic bullet of Lionfish Caviar!
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I just wondering is a low is trying to form south of Western Cuba,you can see a define spin in that area, a lot of moisture around,maybe another Invest?,the way things are going in the tropics now,it will not surprise me to see something developing south of Cuba,I remember a couple of days ago,the CMC model having a system forming in that area and moving North,it dosen't show it anymore but at one point it did.Will see!!
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.....................................GT we are surrounded lol...first few raindrops starting to fall here by me
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Joan-Miriam 1988 deadly and expensive hurricane


Desar-Douglas 1996 I experienced this one


Greta-Olivia 1978


Fifi-Orlene 1974

I don't understand the Epac track of this storm...

IRENE!!!!-Olivia 1971 long back irene goes


TD 11E-Hermine 2010


Gert-TD 14E 1 1993




and many others have done what stubborn Ernesto wants to do

Ernesto-Hector 2012 both guy names


and the big picture
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14871
Quoting mcluvincane:
The conus will more than likely be spared yet once again from a strong hurricane, something i think will be a trend for a few more years which is a good thing.


You mean like how we were spared from the 5th costliest hurricane in history last year? Oh right, that doesn't count because it wasn't a hit on the Gulf states and especially florida.

Irene
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Telling people to ignore trolls is like telling some people to ignore the obvious shark in the water.Lol.I still think T.D 7 has a chance to become Gordon.Especially since 93L isn't doing so well.So their's definitely a chance for it to happen into tonight and tomorrow morning before it get's ripped apart in the eastern caribbean.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16421
Quoting barbamz:


Did you read his memories on Katrina? Impressive.
http://28storms.com/about/
(Scroll down)



The Katrina paras brought back some memories for sure.
Good writing.
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TD 7 Viz

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
The big problem with political trolls is that some of them are "tropical experts" that likes to discuss politics as well. I just can't put them on ignored list in the case that this person is legal and not a troll.
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Quoting DocNDswamp:


It's a tough call, but I can relate to NHC's thinking on it. The LLC was truly disrupted as expected, becoming quite diffuse to point I couldn't identify a coherent, trackable center from sat imagery and obs which remains the NHC's criteria for cross-basin continuity... although a somewhat broad circulation in "low level" wind field via MX observations, such as between Mexico City and Acapulco has been apparent... At any rate a new LLC is trying to form now along / off the coast - ha, past day the strong convection bursting out along MX's SW coast in response has been calling out, "Hey Erny, look we found another warm water source, come on over!"...

LOL, I did get a kick outta NHC's change in outlook on the probability the mid-upper vortex would survive the trek across to either regenerate or reform another TC, as many of us pointed out since about last Sunday via GFS forecast analysis - I thought might had a chance to retain it's name had it made a shorter, less disruptive trip across, say dropping more SW-ward to re-emerge... Anyway, we all know the now 70% chance development originated directly from Ernesto, more clearly so than the Alma / Arthur connection in 2008.

Later friends...


Hey Doc, my Leo/Snake/Bro!!!

Been lurking and getting really bored until you posted.
We have Birthday's coming up soon... We are getting old!!!
Good to see you post!
Gams
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93L isn't looking that great, wonder if the GFS may be right in only weakly developing this.
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643. Skyepony (Mod)
Early-August 2012 Greenland ice reflectivity dips again below 2 standard deviations

As in the mid-July case, the early August ice sheet albedo has declined to an average more than 5% (or 2 standard deviations) below the average of the previous 12 years (2000-2011). A “2-sigma” event has a probability of occurrence under 5% in a random climate.

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Quoting LargoFl:
..lots of lightning too i bet..stay safe down there
Looks like both coasts are getting hammered
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Big Rain coming in to S FL now
..lots of lightning too i bet..stay safe down there
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Big Rain coming in to S FL now
Yep........Getting noisy, and dark
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


LOL cause it bashes a liberal its nonsense? I love how thats uncalled for, but if you come in here and bash Romney and Bain its fair game and no one peeps about it.


No Romney or Obama, please. This is a weather blog!
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WOW...Ernesto has already made headway into the E-pac...looks like he's destined to reincarnate himself there...

I've done yet another detalied blog updated this morning covering all corners of the action packed Atlantic tropics...Link
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Big Rain coming in to S FL now
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here is the 2pm discussion....................................000
AXNT20 KNHC 101759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO AT 10/1500 UTC IS
NEAR 18.0N 99.2W. THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO ARE INLAND MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE FORECAST MOVEMENT OF THE REMNANTS
ERNESTO MAY MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...NEAR
17N104W...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WAS IN MEXICO AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 94W AND 98W...AND FROM
18N TO 20N BETWEEN 98W AND 101W AT 10/0715 UTC.
THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED AND THE PRECIPITATION HAS
WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED IN THOSE AREAS. COLD CLOUD TOPS AND
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION REMAINS FROM 19N TO 20N
BETWEEN 99W AND 100W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN...ON THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN AT 10/1500 UTC IS NEAR
13.7N 49.5W. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT2/WTNT32
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 47W AND 57W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W/21W TO THE SOUTH OF
20N. A 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 16N.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 16N TO 18N
BETWEEN 21W AND 23W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND OTHER POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 24N
BETWEEN 20W AND 27W. THIS FEATURE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 17 KNOTS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W FROM 25N
INTO COASTAL HONDURAS MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
THE WAVE IS MOVING OUT OF AND AWAY FROM THE AREA OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO-TO WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASSOCIATE
ANY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT JUST ACCOMPANIES ONLY THE
TROPICAL WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL MAURITANIA NEAR
18N16W...THROUGH THE 20W/21W TROPICAL WAVE TO 14N21W 9N30W
AND 8N44W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N44W TO COASTAL FRENCH
GUIANA NEAR 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 17W AND
30W...AND FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 30W AND 35W. CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE
MOVING FROM THE COASTAL WATERS INLAND IN GUYANA AND
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA BETWEEN 58W AND 62W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE WEST OF 90W...MOVING AROUND THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 86W.
THIS WIND FLOW IS PART OF THE LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO-TO WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE REST OF THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW RESULTS FROM THE 32N88W TO
28N88W TROUGH.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N88W TO
28N88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF
27N BETWEEN 82W AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF MEXICO.

FROM FLORIDA AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA NEAR 21N83W. A TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...THROUGH THE 21N83W CYCLONIC
CENTER...TO 10N81W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FLORIDA AND
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE
SOUTH OF 27N BETWEEN 74W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 23N TO
26N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF 70W. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N
TO 17N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 75W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 25N86W TO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR 27N.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W. THIS WIND
FLOW RESULTS FROM NORTHERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 30N50W 24N52W 18N55W MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W...
TO 9N79W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 10N84W IN COSTA RICA. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 12N
BETWEEN 75W ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST AND 84W IN NICARAGUA
AND COSTA RICA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 10 FEET
FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N50W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 24N52W 18N55W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE
AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 47W AND 60W...AND FROM
22N TO 27N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 35N38W...TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 32N47W...TO 31N69W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N79W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT THE WINDS AND SEAS RELATED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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Quoting Patrap:
Is the Blog the right Height?

LOL
Good quote Pat..... Mine is "Does this hat make my butt look big"?
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Quoting SouthTampa:
Extensively using the ignore list with the politics today.


I would be careful with that..some of our really good tropics contributors also like to "contribute" politically...I would just minus the political comments as they come, if you don't like to read them....then you don't miss the quality tropics discussion....just my opinion..feel free to do whatever you like :)
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TD07's new coordinates:

AL, 07, 2012081018, , BEST, 0, 137N, 509W, 30, 1009, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 100, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SEVEN, M,

Meanwhile, 93L isn't doing so well:

AL, 93, 2012081018, , BEST, 0, 169N, 216W, 25, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 240, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

One a side note: when will people grow up and stop trolling? And when will everyone else learn to ignore those trolls?
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TD 7 WV Loop

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
Quoting GTcooliebai:
This has become the new normal it seems a tropical wave every week to enhance our rainfall.
Just said this to a friend of mine... lol

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Quoting SouthTampa:


Yep. They're popping up all over the place now. Should be a fun commute home!
..yes be careful ok
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Quoting stormpetrol:
TD7 Should be TS Gordon at 4pm imo., Just want to say the Difference between TD7 and Ernesto, Td7 though smaller has a much better defined tighter LLC IMO.


It is certainly fighting off the dry air and will hit the sweet spot between 55 and 60 W during Dmax so it definitely has a good chance of "bulking up" for the ride through the Eastern caribbean.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15725
Quoting LargoFl:
..ok, man its Booming here now, one just shook my house lol..strong thunderstorms for sure


Yep. They're popping up all over the place now. Should be a fun commute home!
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
I'm hearing thunder.......Need to go check the local radar..BRB
Back.........Looks like most of it is over the ocean...For now
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Here ya go Largo I hear the boomers too.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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