92L near tropical depression status; Ernesto drenching Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:05 PM GMT on August 09, 2012

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A tropical wave midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands (Invest 92L) has become well-organized, with satellite loops showing that a well-defined surface circulation formed around 9 am EDT. So far, 92L's heavy thunderstorm activity is limited, due to a large amount of dry air to the west and north that can be seen on water vapor satellite loops. However, heavy thunderstorms have recently increased near the new circulation center, and if current trends continue, 92L will likely be named Tropical Depression Seven later today. Wind shear is a light 5 - 10 knots, and the SHIPS model predicts that shear will remain light until Saturday morning, when the storm will encounter higher shear from upper-level westerly winds associated with a trough of low pressure. Of the six major computer models used operationally by NHC, only the NOGAPS model develops 92L, and not until Tuesday. The NOGAPS model did the best job of forecasting the genesis of Ernesto, though. There are some major timing differences between the models on how fast 92L will move. The GFS model predicts 92L will reach the Lesser Antilles Islands on Saturday, the ECMWF model has this happening on Sunday, and the NOGAPS model brings 92L though the northern Lesser Antilles on Monday. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 70% of developing into a tropical cyclone by Saturday morning. Residents of the Lesser Antilles should anticipate the possibility of another Ernesto-like situation, with tropical storm conditions affecting the islands Saturday through Monday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L.

Ernesto
Tropical Storm Ernesto is performing a tightrope act along the extreme southern edge of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, as the storm heads westwards towards its eventual doom over the mountains of Mexico. Ernesto made landfall Tuesday night at 11 pm EDT just north of the Belize/Mexico border as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds, weakened to a tropical storm with 50 mph winds while passing over the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday, but had enough time over water this morning to regenerate to a 70 mph tropical storm. Ernesto has a few more hours today when its center will be over water, and the storm's heavy rains of up to ten inches will cause flash flooding in Mexico's Veracruz state. So far, damage from Ernesto has been modest, with no deaths or injuries reported.


Figure 2. True-color MODIS image from NASA's Terra satellite of Tropical Storm Ernesto, taken at 1 pm EDT August 8, 2012. At the time, Ernesto had top winds of 50 mph. Image credit: NASA.

I'll have a new post this afternoon to talk about July 2012--the warmest month in U.S. history.

Jeff Masters

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1360. centex
10:18 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


It only looks narrow because of its length
No, it's narrow in early days. It's going west and not much uncertainty.
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3226
1359. BahaHurican
10:14 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21516
1358. bigwes6844
10:13 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
NEW BLOG everybody still on this one
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1357. VR46L
10:13 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
the Atlantic picture in Rainbow

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6840
1356. BahaHurican
10:12 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting luvtogolf:


I have a sneaky feeling that this storm isn't going to survive the Caribbean ( sorry to disappoint you with my thinking). Conditions are not as favorable as they were with Ernesto and he barely made it.
I'm also thinking how reluctant most of the models were to pick this up to begin with... IMO suggests some challenges for this system that may not be immediately apparent.

Quoting Levi32:


Well yeah. The models often try to shove weak storms north out of the trade wind flow too quickly in the central Atlantic. They did it with Ernesto too. The Bermuda ridge isn't supposed to break down over the next 5 days either. The NHC has caught onto this and stuck their track on the far southern side of the model guidance, which I agree with completely.

The climatology supports the earlier turn... which reminds us that the trough over the eastern CONUS is a much more regular feature than some would like to admit...

Quoting GPTGUY:


Why are you so hell bent on having a major hurricane impact the Cayman Islands? I keep trying to figure that out and I just don't understand it.
Just because we're paranoid doesn't mean we're wrong... [been burned before...]

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21516
1355. VR46L
10:09 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
The wave train keeps on going!

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6840
1354. HurricaneHunterJoe
10:08 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5135
1353. HurricaneHunterJoe
10:03 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Can anyone give me a link that shows all GFS Ensemble Members track forecast for Tropical Storms/Hurricanes? Is there such a thing?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5135
1352. Msdrown
10:03 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Yeah this won't be an Ernesto/Ernie track I can assure you of that.

12Z Euro would indicate a recurve. I wouldn't be surprised to see a Fay track play out here.




What yr was Fay???
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 255
1351. washingtonian115
10:02 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:

Been gone awhile so thats why you're waiting;)
Right now there is TD7 and that wave off Africa, then I come in.
Well hurry it up,and you better not cause any death or destruction.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16432
1350. wxchaser97
10:02 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
New Blog, lets go
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7928
1348. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
10:00 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1347. ncstorm
9:59 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting Levi32:


Well yeah. The models often try to shove weak storms north out of the trade wind flow too quickly in the central Atlantic. They did it with Ernesto too. The Bermuda ridge isn't supposed to break down over the next 5 days either. The NHC has caught onto this and stuck their track on the far southern side of the model guidance, which I agree with completely.



I only ask because you stated not to get caught up into worshipping the GFS and some of the ensembles for the GFS show a curve as well..also if you look at the GFS operational model runs, its only showing recurves out to sea for the atlantic storms its forecasting..but thanks anyway
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14567
1346. lottotexas
9:59 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting weatherman12345:

Basically throw this one out... Initialization is key and it's obv not picking up on the fact that we have a td.
It was initialized but GFS dissipated td7 as it approached E Caribbean

Member Since: December 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 52
1345. CybrTeddy
9:59 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting MississippiWx:
There is pretty good model agreement on the TUTT hovering just north of the Antilles and not moving much over the next 5 days. TD7 will more than likely have a little trouble with shear as he enters the Eastern Caribbean and possibly into the Central Caribbean. Shear looks to drop off to the 10-15kt range in the Central Caribbean, but that could be devastating to a weak system battling trade winds. Some of you are stating that this will be "another boring storm." To me, it is fun to be challenged by all of these obstacles, putting into use the lessons learned through previous storms and seeing if they apply to the next.


Ernesto was by no means a boring storm either.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23597
1344. LargoFl
9:59 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
WUUS52 KJAX 092155
SVRJAX
GAC305-092215-
/O.NEW.KJAX.SV.W.0189.120809T2155Z-120809T2215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
555 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT

* AT 555 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR JESUP...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
DOCTORTOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.



LAT...LON 3171 8187 3167 8184 3166 8181 3158 8169
3156 8169 3144 8186 3157 8201 3169 8194
3172 8190
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 219DEG 16KT 3159 8185



SHASHY
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36964
1343. wxchaser97
9:58 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Still waiting on Isaac..

Been gone awhile so thats why you're waiting;)
Right now there is TD7 and that wave off Africa, then I come in.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7928
1342. wunderkidcayman
9:58 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
ok I'll explane but first I'm going to get something to eat
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11132
1341. GTcooliebai
9:58 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
This was GFS shear map at 12z:



I'm trying to figure out what might prevent TD 7 from developing further when it gets into the Eastern Caribbean. 3 factors: shear, trade winds, and dry air to look at. I'm thinking the stronger the ridge the more faster the trade winds and dry air present. Also another factor to consider is any ULL that might develop. A weaker ridge might result in better development and slower trades and a more moisture environment.

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1340. JrWeathermanFL
9:57 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Link
My Blog Update
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1339. LargoFl
9:57 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36964
1338. Tropicsweatherpr
9:57 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Convection increasing on African Wave as soon it splashed into the water.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14048
1337. icmoore
9:56 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting Roark:

It was a simple question. Dont read anything into it. This is how our next crop of mets may get started. Give him 10 or 15 years of hard study and you never know where he will end up.
It was a dead-neutral, honest request


Running out of the room to find my ear plugs LOL!
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1335. LargoFl
9:56 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
.........................................finally SW florida is getting some good rains
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36964
1334. Roark
9:55 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


i was talking about the insinuation that he was a kid...
he is not and he takes offense to that

Oops. Gotcha. Thanks for the heads-up :)
Member Since: August 31, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 19
1333. GPTGUY
9:54 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I am hot hell bent on having a maj H on top of me



anyone have the SHIP text file for TD7



It sure seems like it..every wave that rolls off Africa is a Cat 3 or 4 near the Cayman's according to you!
Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 391
1332. MississippiWx
9:54 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
There is pretty good model agreement on the TUTT hovering just north of the Antilles and not moving much over the next 5 days. TD7 will more than likely have a little trouble with shear as he enters the Eastern Caribbean and possibly into the Central Caribbean. Shear looks to drop off to the 10-15kt range in the Central Caribbean, but that could be devastating to a weak system battling trade winds. Some of you are stating that this will be "another boring storm." To me, it is fun to be challenged by all of these obstacles, putting into use the lessons learned through previous storms and seeing if they apply to the next.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
1331. lottotexas
9:53 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
72 hrs and NO td 7
Member Since: December 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 52
1330. GeorgiaStormz
9:53 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting Roark:

It was a simple question. Dont read anything into it. This is how our next crop of mets may get started. Give him 10 or 15 years of hard study and you never know where he will end up.
It was a dead-neutral, honest request


i was talking about the insinuation that he was a kid...
he is not and he takes offense to that
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9720
1329. wunderkidcayman
9:52 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting GPTGUY:


Why are you so hell bent on having a major hurricane impact the Cayman Islands? I keep trying to figure that out and I just don't understand it.

I am hot hell bent on having a maj H on top of me



anyone have the SHIP text file for TD7
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11132
1328. LargoFl
9:52 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
..keeping an eye on that down by PR and cuba, winds picking up
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1327. weathermanwannabe
9:52 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Another eight days of virtual torture on the horizon.... Yall Have a Safe Evening and See Everyone Tomorrow............WW.
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1326. LargoFl
9:51 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36964
1325. Tazmanian
9:50 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
2009 was a El nino year and spit out some good cape verde storms.Anna Bill Fred..T.D eight..So if that year could spit out four then why not this one?.



this is not a ture EL nino year yet
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114756
1324. Roark
9:50 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


prepare to be shouted at....

It was a simple question. Dont read anything into it. This is how our next crop of mets may get started. Give him 10 or 15 years of hard study and you never know where he will end up.
It was a dead-neutral, honest request
Member Since: August 31, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 19
1323. wunderkidcayman
9:50 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

TD 7 already has a well defined inner core...Ernesto didn't have one until the West Caribbean.

tell him again
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1322. HurricaneHunterJoe
9:50 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5135
1321. washingtonian115
9:49 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
2009 was a El nino year and spit out some good cape verde storms.Anna Bill Fred..T.D eight..So if that year could spit out four then why not this one?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16432
1320. GPTGUY
9:49 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

ok this is what I say condition are not as favorable NOW cause you said are which is the NOW which I totaly agree but it is to become better and even better than what ernesto had so yeah take it and eat it


Why are you so hell bent on having a major hurricane impact the Cayman Islands? I keep trying to figure that out and I just don't understand it.
Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 391
1319. GeorgiaStormz
9:46 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting Roark:
Just as a point of reference, how old are you WonderKidCayman, and are you planning a career as a met?


prepare to be shouted at....
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9720
1318. TropicalAnalystwx13
9:45 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting luvtogolf:


I have a sneaky feeling that this storm isn't going to survive the Caribbean ( sorry to disappoint you with my thinking). Conditions are not as favorable as they were with Ernesto and he barely made it.

TD 7 already has a well defined inner core...Ernesto didn't have one until the West Caribbean.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31507
1317. MississippiWx
9:45 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting yqt1001:
Gordon, a re-Ernesto?

Didn't expect to have so many CV storms by mid August though. O_o


Gordon would be only the second, which is not all that unusual especially in an El Nino year.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
1316. CybrTeddy
9:45 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting luvtogolf:


I have a sneaky feeling that this storm isn't going to survive the Caribbean ( sorry to disappoint you with my thinking). Conditions are not as favorable as they were with Ernesto and he barely made it.


Conditions aren't favorable now, that is thanks to the outflow from Ernesto which is forecasted to move away according to the GFS, which shows favorable conditions in the Western Caribbean. Besides, Ernesto barely survived the Eastern Caribbean. He became quite an impressive Hurricane in the Western Caribbean however.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23597
1315. wunderkidcayman
9:45 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting luvtogolf:


I have a sneaky feeling that this storm isn't going to survive the Caribbean ( sorry to disappoint you with my thinking). Conditions are not as favorable as they were with Ernesto and he barely made it.

ok this is what I say condition are not as favorable NOW cause you said are which is the NOW which I totaly agree but it is to become better and even better than what ernesto had so yeah take it and eat it
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11132
1314. washingtonian115
9:45 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting jascott1967:


Isaac's storm? It would be ironic (and tragic) if it becomes a major and hits Galveston.
I'm hoping he becomes something like the one from 2000.Beautiful cape verde storm that stayed waaaaay out in the Atlantic.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16432
1313. Roark
9:45 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Just as a point of reference, how old are you WonderKidCayman, and are you planning a career as a met?
Member Since: August 31, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 19
1312. yqt1001
9:43 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Gordon, a re-Ernesto?

Didn't expect to have so many CV storms by mid August though. O_o
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1285
1311. Levi32
9:43 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:


So that means you are going with the GFS because it looks like the other models curve it well before the GOM?


Well yeah. The models often try to shove weak storms north out of the trade wind flow too quickly in the central Atlantic. They did it with Ernesto too. The Bermuda ridge isn't supposed to break down over the next 5 days either. The NHC has caught onto this and stuck their track on the far southern side of the model guidance, which I agree with completely.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26548
1310. Hugo5
9:43 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Ernesto will become tropical depression ernesto some time tonight now that it is hitting the high mountians in central mexico. TD 7 was no surprise formation to no one except NOAA that only gave it a 30% chance yesterday morning and 70% later in the day. The new wave coming off Africa will still need some time for the transition from land to open waters, but looks quite strong still and may make depressions status in the next day, I would give it the 70% chance. reminants of Flo are still becoming better organized and are in slightly more favorable conditions today, but will likely not develop until moving out of the moderate wind shear that it is in now. The tropical wave approaching FL will likely bring lots of rain and not develope into anything any time soon. Thanks for your time and please feel free to comment on the update.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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