x

Ernesto hits the Yucatan with 85 mph winds

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:23 PM GMT on August 08, 2012

Ernesto is tropical storm again, after making landfall Tuesday night at 11 pm EDT just north of the Belize/Mexico border as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. We have few good weather observations near the landfall location, though an automated weather station on Banco Chinchorro Island just off the coast of Mexico reported a minimum pressure of 979.4 mb. A personal weather station at the Margarita del Sol Costa Maya Resort recorded sustained winds of 42 mph, gusting to 49 mph, and a pressure of 988 mb in the west eyewall of Ernesto before the station failed. No other weather stations were in the eyewall, and we did not have a hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm at landfall to measure the winds, due to technical issues. Belize radar shows that Ernesto's eyewall has collapsed, but the storm has remained well-organized during its passage over the Yucatan Peninsula. Infrared satellite loops show that Ernesto's heavy thunderstorms are mainly affecting Mexico.


Figure 1. Hurricane Ernesto at 10:45 pm EDT August 7, shortly before landfall. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.


Figure 2. True-color MODIS image from NASA's Terra satellite of Tropical Storm Ernesto, taken at 12:15 pm EDT August 7, 2012. At the time, Ernesto had top winds of 65 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Ernesto
Both radar and satellite loops show that Ernesto had a south of due west (260°) motion this morning, and it is no longer clear if the storm will re-emerge over the ocean on the west side of the Yucatan Peninsula. Even if Ernesto does move out over water again, it will be very close to the coast, limiting intensification potential. The official NHC forecast still calls for Ernesto to attain Category 1 hurricane strength over the Bay of Campeche. Ernesto's main threat will be heavy rainfall threat in the mountainous regions along its path through Mexico.

92L
A tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic (Invest 92L) is disorganized, with satellite loops showing limited heavy thunderstorm activity and a modest amount of spin at mid-levels of the atmosphere. A large amount of dry air to the west and north of 92L is interfering with development, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots. None of the reliable computer models develop 92L. The GFS model predicts 92L will reach the Lesser Antilles Islands on Saturday, but the other major models show a much slower motion with no threat to the islands for at least six days. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 30% of developing into a tropical cyclone by Friday morning.

A tropical wave predicted to move off the coast of Africa on Thursday night is predicted to develop by both the GFS and ECMWF models.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

Sign In or Register Sign In or Register

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2097 - 2047

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

Quoting Tribucanes:
JFV going for political science..............oh my, where do I start? I love people and treat them with respect, irregardless or where or who they are in life. JFV will fit in much better than I ever could in the political science realm. He has the ability to do what suits him best, irregardless of whom he hurts. I would gladly be a slave to advance those less than I. He may reach great riches and stack his things up so high. I will always be happier.


I don't think you can judge the happiness of a man you don't know.

And that's all I have to say about that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Hes mean though :p


Why thank you. ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RussianWinter:


Now that I think about it...

What kind of man is a...

Korithe Man? Is there some nation called Korithea?


Yes. I'm the ruler of said nation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:

As Dr Masters said in his video. It's the shape of the area that makes systems spin up quickly.

hey Aussie can you post the vid I did not get to see it yet
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RussianWinter:


Now that I think about it...

What kind of man is a...

Korithe Man? Is there some nation called Korithea?



He's just full of himself.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7163
Quoting floridaT:
wow Ernesto in the west Caribbean has trouble intensifying now is half over land and it does

As Dr Masters said in his video. It's the shape of the area that makes systems spin up quickly.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


Lol. Ok, ok. You're right.

KoritheMan is not a troll.


Hes mean though :p
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7163
Some of my posts keep not posting.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7163
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


thats just mean


Lol. Ok, ok. You're right.

KoritheMan is not a troll.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Kumo:


"In Internet slang, a troll is someone who posts inflammatory, extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community, such as an online discussion forum, chat room, or blog, with the primary intent of provoking readers into an emotional response or of otherwise disrupting normal on-topic discussion."

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troll_(Internet)



whoa!! i had NOOOO idea there was a real definition.......*blink blink*
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:




Now that I think about it...

What kind of man is a...

Korithe Man? Is there some nation called Korithea?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
wow Ernesto in the west Caribbean has trouble intensifying now is half over land and it does
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting huntsvle:


Ouch...glad I changed my major before I got a degree or you'd be saying mean things about me too... :-\


LOL. Maybe you would have been different.

BTW, thanks for offering shelter if a hurricane comes roaring. LOL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2083. Kumo
Quoting popartpete:
What exactly does a "troll" do? Who are considered trolls?


"In Internet slang, a troll is someone who posts inflammatory, extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community, such as an online discussion forum, chat room, or blog, with the primary intent of provoking readers into an emotional response or of otherwise disrupting normal on-topic discussion."

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troll_(Internet)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


He is getting his masters degree in political science. He will fit right in with the rest of the scumbag, conniving politicians that run our country.


Ouch...glad I changed my major before I got a degree or you'd be saying mean things about me too... :-\
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Kori is going to be working for the SPC or NOAA, so we just in general second guess and hate on his forecasts. He is often right, just disregard it and tell him otherwise. :) Kori is an excellent young forecaster; been cloudy for him in the deep south for awhile.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Quoting MississippiWx:


If you see a dude named "Koritheman" here on the blog, that's a troll.

That's all you need to know. :-O


thats just mean
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7163
...ERNESTO STRENGTHENING AND MOVING MORE QUICKLY WESTWARD OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...

1:00 AM CDT Thu Aug 9
Location: 18.8°N 93.0°W
Moving: W at 16 mph
Min pressure: 993 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph
getting there
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
70 mph? Really?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
WOW is that pink really in the GOM? Thats not kool at all
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


It has an odd way of showing its feelings then. :-)


LOL well i have some extra space at my apartment if anyone needs evacuated lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2am TWO

000
ABNT20 KNHC 090548
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO...LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
HAVE CHANGE LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.


A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF FLORENCE...IS LOCATED ABOUT
360 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR REDEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT
20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
...ERNESTO STRENGTHENING AND MOVING MORE QUICKLY WESTWARD OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...
1:00 AM CDT Thu Aug 9
Location: 18.8°N 93.0°W
Moving: W at 16 mph
Min pressure: 993 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3486
Quoting Tribucanes:
JFV was the worst. He was hateful to everyone, bar none. Many tried to reason with him, but it was fruitless. He was funny at times, but he was hateful in general. Enough hate in the world as it is. I really hope he doesn't continue on his current trajectory. Enough abuse in the world as it is. I love how this site is full of insightful members and the trolls are so few.


He is getting his masters degree in political science. He will fit right in with the rest of the scumbag, conniving politicians that run our country.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
AtHomeInTexas good to see you up and triumphing against sleep again. :)
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Quoting wxchaser97:
Morning everyone, I saw the surprise TWO that put 92L at 70% and the wave off Africa still looks good.
92L:


African wave:
choo- choo. choo-choo!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
hmm NHC also wants to take 92L WSW too



yes I know this is old but still
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


Yeah. Regardless, a troll is a troll is a troll. :-p

...Let their heads roll....



Could the real JFV be lurking among us though? Or was he long gone?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting popartpete:
What exactly does a "troll" do? Who are considered trolls?


If you see a dude named "Koritheman" here on the blog, that's a troll.

That's all you need to know. :-O
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
JFV was the worst. He was hateful to everyone, bar none. Many tried to reason with him, but it was fruitless. He was funny at times, but he was hateful in general. Enough hate in the world as it is. I really hope he doesn't continue on his current trajectory. Enough abuse in the world as it is. I love how this site is full of insightful members and the trolls are so few.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Is it possible that the trough coming down through Texas into Louisianna can influence Ernesto to move more north than expected? Just curious the news tonight talked about a trough coming down which may bring drier air into our area. Made me wonder if it could influence Ernie also?

Please don't call me a wishcaster or troll I love you guys insight and respect you all. I am not a Met. only a fireman. Thanks in advance.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting huntsvle:


Yep, that's two storms in a row right at a week apart the CMC has a landfall at the gulf coast. I think it likes you mississippi. ;)


It has an odd way of showing its feelings then. :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What exactly does a "troll" do? Who are considered trolls?
Member Since: July 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 443
Quoting MississippiWx:


The CMC won't give it up, will it? It's dying for us to take a hit on the Northern Gulf Coast.


Yep, that's two storms in a row right at a week apart the CMC has a landfall at the gulf coast. I think it likes you mississippi. ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Really? Missed that part. I didn't know it was an imposter.


Yeah. Regardless, a troll is a troll is a troll. :-p

...Let their heads roll....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting huntsvle:


well hello there athome. Nice to see you again.


Hi Huntsvle. Nice to see you too. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Really? Missed that part. I didn't know it was an imposter.


Wait, there were imposters?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
The CMC



The CMC won't give it up, will it? It's dying for us to take a hit on the Northern Gulf Coast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:
Jeez, both ASCAT and OSCAT missed 92L...


Oh well maybe next time =D.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2055. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:
Unless I missed something, Dr. Masters did not IP ban JFV. He banned someone impersonating JFV.


Really? Missed that part. I didn't know it was an imposter.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
The CMC



well hello there athome. Nice to see you again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The trolls are so few. If JFV is gone, then that is not a small thing. Great thing is, when the season is in full swing; trolls never have enough attention to stick around. Blog just moves too fast to satisfy them. Without the needed attention, trolls go POOF.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Quoting MississippiWx:
Time: 05:23:00Z
Coordinates: 19.1833N 92.4167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.8 mb (~ 24.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,488 meters (~ 4,882 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 121° at 83 knots (From the ESE at ~ 95.4 mph)
Air Temp: 13.7°C* (~ 56.7°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 86 knots (~ 98.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 55 knots (~ 63.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 15 mm/hr (~ 0.59 in/hr)


NHC did mention that land friction may actually tighten up the core. Sheesh E is wasting no time at all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RussianWinter:


What if the clock is ahead a few minutes...

Then what, hmmm?


Also, WISHCASTER!
then its right once a decade
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:



As it looks now wunder, it most likely will be a Caribbean storm for the most part. Most models are trending that after it enters the Caribbean, it should start a NW motion due to some strong troughs moving down. (Hey, blog. Is this the part where I should say, "But things could change" just to cover myself?)


Grothar, I'm holding you to this comment as a friend. I want my chase!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The CMC

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


PINHOLE!

LOL
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3486

Viewing: 2097 - 2047

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

Top of Page

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

About

Dr. Masters (r) co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Afternoon clouds over Southwest Puerto Rico
Storm clouds gathering over Half Dome
Sierra snow
snowman at Yosemite Falls