Ernesto hits the Yucatan with 85 mph winds

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:23 PM GMT on August 08, 2012

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Ernesto is tropical storm again, after making landfall Tuesday night at 11 pm EDT just north of the Belize/Mexico border as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. We have few good weather observations near the landfall location, though an automated weather station on Banco Chinchorro Island just off the coast of Mexico reported a minimum pressure of 979.4 mb. A personal weather station at the Margarita del Sol Costa Maya Resort recorded sustained winds of 42 mph, gusting to 49 mph, and a pressure of 988 mb in the west eyewall of Ernesto before the station failed. No other weather stations were in the eyewall, and we did not have a hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm at landfall to measure the winds, due to technical issues. Belize radar shows that Ernesto's eyewall has collapsed, but the storm has remained well-organized during its passage over the Yucatan Peninsula. Infrared satellite loops show that Ernesto's heavy thunderstorms are mainly affecting Mexico.


Figure 1. Hurricane Ernesto at 10:45 pm EDT August 7, shortly before landfall. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.


Figure 2. True-color MODIS image from NASA's Terra satellite of Tropical Storm Ernesto, taken at 12:15 pm EDT August 7, 2012. At the time, Ernesto had top winds of 65 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Ernesto
Both radar and satellite loops show that Ernesto had a south of due west (260°) motion this morning, and it is no longer clear if the storm will re-emerge over the ocean on the west side of the Yucatan Peninsula. Even if Ernesto does move out over water again, it will be very close to the coast, limiting intensification potential. The official NHC forecast still calls for Ernesto to attain Category 1 hurricane strength over the Bay of Campeche. Ernesto's main threat will be heavy rainfall threat in the mountainous regions along its path through Mexico.

92L
A tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic (Invest 92L) is disorganized, with satellite loops showing limited heavy thunderstorm activity and a modest amount of spin at mid-levels of the atmosphere. A large amount of dry air to the west and north of 92L is interfering with development, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots. None of the reliable computer models develop 92L. The GFS model predicts 92L will reach the Lesser Antilles Islands on Saturday, but the other major models show a much slower motion with no threat to the islands for at least six days. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 30% of developing into a tropical cyclone by Friday morning.

A tropical wave predicted to move off the coast of Africa on Thursday night is predicted to develop by both the GFS and ECMWF models.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


its trackin west
the convection is rotating within the coc
of the low itself giving that illusion


Lol, I had this figured out way back when in 1963.
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Quoting spathy:
Ok folks I too am very droopy eyed.
To sum things up.
I agree with all the above posts,unless I dont,and tomorrow I will probably change my mind!


Clear as mud!
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6781
Now that the blog has slowed considerably, I wanted to ask if anyone knows what has become of Presslord and StormW. Thanks.
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Quoting RussianWinter:


What if the clock is ahead a few minutes...

Then what, hmmm?


Also, WISHCASTER!

if it's broken the clock wont move.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

nah,,,, I expect a similar track to Ernesto





Ernie was one of them "southern" storms. 92L is well to the north.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
its Dark Charcoal Gray I used



ok I am expecting a trough to be over the Centrl US in about 120 hours and it digs down a bit while moving E bound, causing 92L to lift but at the end of the run. there seems to be a high that starts to build back in off of the SE US coast and may push it back WNW but that is way too unclear and too far out so I will leave track the way it is till later


Just be advised...your current forecast track is a recipe for disaster.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


Don't think it'll be anything like Ike.


I'm just sayin.....if you put a storm track that far north, that has encountered some problems and isn't exactly strong, you could expect that upper level ridging would continue it's motion westward and less nortward.....just a thought.
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hmm guess you cant paste from twitter


Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6781
Quoting huntsvle:


ok haters...lol, thats not a gut feeling i'm okay with...just sayin.


nah,,,, I expect a similar track to Ernesto
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1987. JLPR2
If 92L wants to live it better start growing.



Such a small system would have a hard time trying to cut through dry air.

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1986. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting AussieStorm:


I agree. wsw it is going.


Loop. click Lat/Lon to see movement.


its trackin west
the convection is rotating within the coc
of the low itself giving that illusion
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1985. Grothar
.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27519
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



...0.5






???
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
My first guess track on 92L... No intensity prediction, as it is too early to tall as it isn't even a depression yet.



I think it'll have more issues with land than anything else in it's lifetime.

That track reminds me of Hurricane Georges back in '98. Hopefully not as intense though.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

A broken clock is correct twice a day. I guess JFV will be right sooner or later... I wish for later muuuuucccccchhhhh later. lol


What if the clock is ahead a few minutes...

Then what, hmmm?


Also, WISHCASTER!
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Quoting RussianWinter:


Jason though makes a comment about every atlantic tstorm out there. Could it be the Jason-JFV hybrid model?

the JJFV model it is then. lol
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Quoting huntsvle:


ok haters...lol, thats not a gut feeling i'm okay with...just sayin.



Don't think it'll be anything like Ike.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3481
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Hurricane John in 1994 went from the EPAC to the WPAC and became a Typhoon.

oh geez, my memory doesn't go back that far. Thanks for reminding me.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Yeah... the JFV model.


Jason though makes a comment about every atlantic tstorm out there. Could it be the Jason-JFV hybrid model?
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1976. Grothar
Good night boys and girls. Let me know me when you want me to declare the feature over Africa a blob?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27519
Time: 04:58:00Z
Coordinates: 19.4167N 93.1333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.9 mb (~ 24.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,510 meters (~ 4,954 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1003.8 mb (~ 29.64 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 72° at 72 knots (From the ENE at ~ 82.8 mph)
Air Temp: 15.0°C* (~ 59.0°F*)
Dew Pt: 15.0°C* (~ 59.0°F*)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 72 knots (~ 82.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 52 knots (~ 59.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 14 mm/hr (~ 0.55 in/hr)
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6781
Quoting RussianWinter:


I dunno, round here, we have several of those folks.

I think you'll find it's the same person.
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Quoting Grothar:


Hey, Miami09, where do you live?
Not Miami. :)
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Easy

Answer: 3

Hurricane/Typhoon Ioke August/September 2006

Hurricane/Typhoon Ele August 2002

Hurricane/Typhoon Uleki August 1998



Hurricane John in 1994 went from the EPAC to the WPAC and became a Typhoon.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24742
Quoting RussianWinter:


You're looking at convective activity, which is being slightly sheared. Storm is goin west.

It maybe be going just south of west. How about that, more correct??
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Evening all! I see our Floridans are acting up, as usual. ;)

Looks like Ernesto is getting his act back together after reemerging into the BOC just as we suspected. Due to the curving nature of the land around and the favorable environment, if it can stay over water long enough I wouldn't rule out a major.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
My first guess track on 92L... No intensity prediction, as it is too early to tall as it isn't even a depression yet.



I think it'll have more issues with land than anything else in it's lifetime.


ok haters...lol, thats not a gut feeling i'm okay with...just sayin.

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1968. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)



...0.5
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It was meant to be a parody of a special poster whom forecasts every thunderstorm that develops over the Atlantic to blow over his/her house. ;)


I dunno, round here, we have several of those folks.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It was meant to be a parody of a special poster whom forecasts every thunderstorm that develops over the Atlantic to blow over his/her house. ;)

Yeah... the JFV model.
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its Dark Charcoal Gray I used

Quoting huntsvle:


and what factors are you using to conclude it will shift WNW and then more NW?


ok I am expecting a trough to be over the Centrl US in about 120 hours and it digs down a bit while moving E bound, causing 92L to lift but at the end of the run. there seems to be a high that starts to build back in off of the SE US coast and may push it back WNW but that is way too unclear and too far out so I will leave track the way it is till later
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:


I agree. wsw it is going.


Loop. click Lat/Lon to see movement.


You're looking at convective activity, which is being slightly sheared. Storm is goin west.
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Quoting RussianWinter:


It's also one of the most reliable forecast models.

Believe it or not Miami and Outer Banks of NC have the most tropical storms affecting them in the united states...

By far!


Gotta give credit to JFV, sooner or later that guy will be correct.

A broken clock is correct twice a day. I guess JFV will be right sooner or later... I wish for later muuuuucccccchhhhh later. lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1961. Grothar
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Below is my forecast track. I have no reason to believe it'll come straight for Miami -- it's just a gut feeling. ;P



Hey, Miami09, where do you live?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27519
Quoting AussieStorm:

That is the JFV model.Brings every system to S Fla.
It was meant to be a parody of a special poster whom forecasts every thunderstorm that develops over the Atlantic to blow over his/her house. ;)
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Quoting Gearsts:
Didn't you agre with me than it was moving wsw?:(


I agree. wsw it is going.


Loop. click Lat/Lon to see movement.
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1958. Grothar
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

even these agree



yes I agree we don't know the path yet so yeah maybe I could be right anyway yeah I know I only have 10-30% chance going on it



you are way too late I saw that from long ago



As it looks now wunder, it most likely will be a Caribbean storm for the most part. Most models are trending that after it enters the Caribbean, it should start a NW motion due to some strong troughs moving down. (Hey, blog. Is this the part where I should say, "But things could change" just to cover myself?)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27519
1957. yqt1001
Starting to look like a hurricane again.

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Quoting AussieStorm:

That is the JFV model.


It's also one of the most reliable forecast models.

Believe it or not Miami and Outer Banks of NC have the most tropical storms affecting them in the united states...

By far!


Gotta give credit to JFV, sooner or later that guy will be correct.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1955. Gearsts
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Below is my forecast track. I have no reason to believe it'll come straight for Miami -- it's just a gut feeling. ;P

Didn't you agree with me than it was moving wsw?:(
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Quoting redwagon:

Well..so WUs model is the only one where GFS doesn't take Ernesto to the Phillipines?


I don't see the Phillies on any of those maps.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Below is my forecast track. I have no reason to believe it'll come straight for Miami -- it's just a gut feeling. ;P


That is the JFV model.Brings every system to S Fla.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
My first guess track on 92L... No intensity prediction, as it is too early to tall as it isn't even a depression yet.



I think it'll have more issues with land than anything else in it's lifetime.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3481
Quoting redwagon:

Well..so WUs model is the only one where GFS doesn't take Ernesto to the Phillipines?

oh goodness, don't say that. they have enough problems dealing with flooding, they don't need another tropical system.
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Below is my forecast track. I have no reason to believe it'll come straight for Miami -- it's just a gut feeling. ;P

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Quoting Grothar:


Don't get nervous. I won't keep you after class. :)

Well..so WUs model is the only one where GFS doesn't take Ernesto to the Phillipines? And then back around to Africa lol
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1948. Gearsts
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Quoting huntsvle:


and what factors are you using to conclude it will shift WNW and then more NW?


Let me clarify...I know you're using a blend of blended models...but what environmental features are you using to deviate your track?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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