Ernesto hits the Yucatan with 85 mph winds

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:23 PM GMT on August 08, 2012

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Ernesto is tropical storm again, after making landfall Tuesday night at 11 pm EDT just north of the Belize/Mexico border as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. We have few good weather observations near the landfall location, though an automated weather station on Banco Chinchorro Island just off the coast of Mexico reported a minimum pressure of 979.4 mb. A personal weather station at the Margarita del Sol Costa Maya Resort recorded sustained winds of 42 mph, gusting to 49 mph, and a pressure of 988 mb in the west eyewall of Ernesto before the station failed. No other weather stations were in the eyewall, and we did not have a hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm at landfall to measure the winds, due to technical issues. Belize radar shows that Ernesto's eyewall has collapsed, but the storm has remained well-organized during its passage over the Yucatan Peninsula. Infrared satellite loops show that Ernesto's heavy thunderstorms are mainly affecting Mexico.


Figure 1. Hurricane Ernesto at 10:45 pm EDT August 7, shortly before landfall. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.


Figure 2. True-color MODIS image from NASA's Terra satellite of Tropical Storm Ernesto, taken at 12:15 pm EDT August 7, 2012. At the time, Ernesto had top winds of 65 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Ernesto
Both radar and satellite loops show that Ernesto had a south of due west (260°) motion this morning, and it is no longer clear if the storm will re-emerge over the ocean on the west side of the Yucatan Peninsula. Even if Ernesto does move out over water again, it will be very close to the coast, limiting intensification potential. The official NHC forecast still calls for Ernesto to attain Category 1 hurricane strength over the Bay of Campeche. Ernesto's main threat will be heavy rainfall threat in the mountainous regions along its path through Mexico.

92L
A tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic (Invest 92L) is disorganized, with satellite loops showing limited heavy thunderstorm activity and a modest amount of spin at mid-levels of the atmosphere. A large amount of dry air to the west and north of 92L is interfering with development, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots. None of the reliable computer models develop 92L. The GFS model predicts 92L will reach the Lesser Antilles Islands on Saturday, but the other major models show a much slower motion with no threat to the islands for at least six days. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 30% of developing into a tropical cyclone by Friday morning.

A tropical wave predicted to move off the coast of Africa on Thursday night is predicted to develop by both the GFS and ECMWF models.

Jeff Masters

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2497. Gorty
Quoting WxLogic:
Indeed we have TD#7 now.


Its not on the 11 am advisory though?
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Quoting hurrtracker1994:


We watch everything at NHC.



Well what happened with Humberto then?
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Here you go: TD 7--

invest_RENUMBER_al922012_al072012.ren

invest_al072012.invest

AL, 07, 2012080912, , BEST, 0, 137N, 417W, 25, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SEVEN,


I gotta tell you there is no better at letting us know when there is a newly formed invest or storm. Good job Nea.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting AussieStorm:

This guy got to Ernesto


Thanks for that :)
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td 7 really wow?
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Quoting hurrtracker1994:


My source was the NHC (since I work there). This particular storm chaser reported to us. It will all be used in post storm analysis.


Isn't it nice the NHC has these crazy people....I mean, brave and passionate people, who will get themselves in as close to the eye as possible and take measurements, all in the name of fun and adventure?! LOL Ok, and science, but reckon the thrill is more than the science with the nutters...I mean brave and passionate folkes, really I do :D
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2491. WxLogic
Indeed we have TD#7 now.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5038
Quoting Coastalgramps:


Don't know what part of the coast you're on, but I've got a History Page (Evernote file) pertaining mainly to Palm Beach County you might find interesting.
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Today is a nice, cool, and rainy day where I'm at and this could easily help with the drought. Coming down pretty hard now and I'm happy:)
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2488. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Do we have TD 7??
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Maybe TD-7? I am extremely surprised!
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Quoting mikatnight:


Which reminds me, when was the last time that chart has been updated?

Oh, and hello Aussie!

Good Morning
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I don't think this remuber will stick until 11am

92L has it's LLC exsposed...
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Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF, as usual.


Thank you!
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2482. hydrus
Quoting PlazaRed:


Just a snipit I picked up from the BBC, jsut now.

"Global food prices rise in July due to extreme weather."

"Cereal prices surged 17%, while sugar leapt 12% to new highs in July from the previous month after rains hampered sugarcane harvesting in Brazil, the world's largest producer."

Here's the link if you want to copy and paste it?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19193390
Its off topic. I am sriously angry with"some" of the companies that manufacture food products..They are ripping people off, and I am sick of it. (92L does not look like much, but that should change when it nears the islands.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22728
Full tropical update
Going to be gone for a while later today. Ernesto is making landfall near Coatxacoalcos, MX.
Why me, just as I post this entry 92L is renumbered to TD7, I'll update that later today.
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BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al922012_al072012.renFSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208091354
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
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did NHC designate this as a TD? sorry, I maybe I misunderstood.
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1133
Quoting hurrtracker1994:


Really? Thats surprising. Can I have the link to your source?
ATCF, as usual.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Peak is September 10 not August 10.
oh and you posted....... the chart.


Which reminds me, when was the last time that chart has been updated?

Oh, and hello Aussie!
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Here you go: TD 7--

invest_RENUMBER_al922012_al072012.ren


Really? Thats surprising. Can I have the link to your source?
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thanks. I guess the GFS showing MJO returning around August 20 and staying for some time makes sense.
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1133
Here you go: TD 7--

invest_RENUMBER_al922012_al072012.ren

invest_al072012.invest

AL, 07, 2012080912, , BEST, 0, 137N, 417W, 25, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SEVEN,
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


tons of rain and i't still in this non-existent drought:



dont even really know why we are in a much of a drought of all


Just a snipit I picked up from the BBC, jsut now.

"Global food prices rise in July due to extreme weather."

"Cereal prices surged 17%, while sugar leapt 12% to new highs in July from the previous month after rains hampered sugarcane harvesting in Brazil, the world's largest producer."

Here's the link if you want to copy and paste it?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19193390
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Quoting Coastalgramps:


Looks like it


Peak is September 10 not August 10.
oh and you posted....... the chart.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

I prefer the classic over the new look.


This look is kind of cartoony, in my opinion.

By the way... I think Ernie's a hurricane. And I'm assuming he'll be upgraded to a category 2 upon post analysis. There's no way he wasn't one.
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Going up to CAT 1 is this Ernesto twins?? lol

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Quoting Chiggy:
Actually 00Z Euro develops the 92L more than 06Z GFS, and so do the 06Z HWRF, GFDL, and 00Z CMC.
So I guess there is some model consensus of a moderate tropical storm in the eastern Caribbean in 3 days time.
Very similar to what we had for Ernesto at the same stage of development.

92L needs to be watched to say the least!

yep so true I have a bad feeling about this one Chiggy it being further N it it follows a a Ernesto type track plus being further N it will be more of a problem for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


lol, its classic WU, i knew something looked wrong....

I prefer the classic over the new look.
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so, can we assume this means after August 14, tropical activity in atlantic will go quiet again for some time?
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1133
Quoting TheOnlyBravesFan:


We have severe storms today, and tomorrow... Better than tropical storms, at least to me.


I can not argue with that. I have done my time in the NWS. Severe storms are really exciting to deal with, especially when your chasing them haha. Although, a tropical system is like a severe storm on steroids.
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2462. Chiggy
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Going up to 63KT now

I always wanted to know this: How accurate are the SHIPS intensity models and does it also have track? I never see a track from SHIPS model. If so then can someone please post a link here, thank you!
Member Since: June 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 297
Quoting AussieStorm:

*nose punch*
it's another option.


I tried it....
*nosebleed*
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
LLC trying to escape...

Already.

I am still not sure if this one will develop into Gordon.maybe it will maybe it will not.
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Quoting Chiggy:
Actually 00Z Euro develops the 92L more than 06Z GFS, and so do the 06Z HWRF, GFDL, and 00Z CMC.
So I guess there is some model consensus of a moderate tropical storm in the eastern Caribbean in 3 days time.
Very similar to what we had for Ernesto at the same stage of development.

92L needs to be watched to say the least!


You are so right, :-)
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Quoting hurricane23:


Low level flow issues AGAIN :0(


Hey "Killer," good to see you.
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am curious about some of the model runs on the CMC and GFS seeing a strong tropical storm in the EGOM. who thinks this is credible given it is only five days out?
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1133
Quoting AussieStorm:

WU has it's on chat room here.


lol, its classic WU, i knew something looked wrong....
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
From one of my favorite "Keyboard Mets"

(The NHC cited his work in the first discussion for Florence)

(Key: Low activity = 1 tropical cyclone; Medium activity = 2 tropical cyclones; High activity = 3+ tropical cyclones.)

"August 2-14: High Activity; Confidence 50%. Conditions are projected to become favorable for Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis during this time as the convectively active phase of a strong eastward propagating convectively-coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW) passes over the Atlantic. The declaration of Tropical Depression 5 has occurred while superimposed with the convectively active phase of this strong CCKW.

With regards to the MJO, using an EOF analysis composed of U200, U850, and VP200, the MJO is providing a favorable environment for deep convection over the East Pacific (Phase 8). This location is different than what most real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) indices suggest using U200, U850, and OLR for the EOF calculation. The added value of using VP200 instead of OLR in the EOF calculation is that the new RMM principle components (PCs) capture more (OLR, U850) variance over the Western Hemisphere, serving as an improved RMM index there. RMM phase 3 is the most favorable phase for genesis, therefore suggesting the Atlantic will remain in active state through August 14. Further, Atlantic hurricanes are most frequent during RMM phases 1-3. Therefore, there is increased potential for any storms to develop to intensify into hurricanes during this time."

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Quoting TheOnlyBravesFan:


We have severe storms today, and tomorrow... Better than tropical storms, at least to me.


so its not gonna hit me, and its not major
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
LLC trying to escape...

Already.


nah not really look on it from rainbow you can see convection starting to build on the W side of the circulation
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2452. Chiggy
Actually 00Z Euro develops the 92L more than 06Z GFS, and so do the 06Z HWRF, GFDL, and 00Z CMC.
So I guess there is some model consensus of a moderate tropical storm in the eastern Caribbean in 3 days time.
Very similar to what we had for Ernesto at the same stage of development.

92L needs to be watched to say the least!
Member Since: June 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 297
92L is taking on more tropical storm-like features.

I wonder why 06Z GFS doesn't do anything with it seeing it has a 70% chance of developing within 48 hours.

Perhaps 12Z run may show development.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


*Facepalm*
No aussie, he means private mail, not chat

*nose punch*
it's another option.
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good morning Reed. what is the UKMET saying?
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1133
Quoting hurrtracker1994:
You know what this blog needs right now... A nice cup of warm Tropical storm soup. If anyone needs something to track look over at the EPAC. We got a hurricane over there.


yah but its boring....a cat 1 headed to death right now...away from land
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

ok that make no sense
and it make landfall in the capital of Grand Cayman GT but atleast it misses my house its on the N side of the island in WB

but really BAMS is further S
12Z



UKMET has the right idea for the African wave (in my opinion).
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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