Ernesto hits the Yucatan with 85 mph winds

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:23 PM GMT on August 08, 2012

Share this Blog
39
+

Ernesto is tropical storm again, after making landfall Tuesday night at 11 pm EDT just north of the Belize/Mexico border as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. We have few good weather observations near the landfall location, though an automated weather station on Banco Chinchorro Island just off the coast of Mexico reported a minimum pressure of 979.4 mb. A personal weather station at the Margarita del Sol Costa Maya Resort recorded sustained winds of 42 mph, gusting to 49 mph, and a pressure of 988 mb in the west eyewall of Ernesto before the station failed. No other weather stations were in the eyewall, and we did not have a hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm at landfall to measure the winds, due to technical issues. Belize radar shows that Ernesto's eyewall has collapsed, but the storm has remained well-organized during its passage over the Yucatan Peninsula. Infrared satellite loops show that Ernesto's heavy thunderstorms are mainly affecting Mexico.


Figure 1. Hurricane Ernesto at 10:45 pm EDT August 7, shortly before landfall. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.


Figure 2. True-color MODIS image from NASA's Terra satellite of Tropical Storm Ernesto, taken at 12:15 pm EDT August 7, 2012. At the time, Ernesto had top winds of 65 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Ernesto
Both radar and satellite loops show that Ernesto had a south of due west (260°) motion this morning, and it is no longer clear if the storm will re-emerge over the ocean on the west side of the Yucatan Peninsula. Even if Ernesto does move out over water again, it will be very close to the coast, limiting intensification potential. The official NHC forecast still calls for Ernesto to attain Category 1 hurricane strength over the Bay of Campeche. Ernesto's main threat will be heavy rainfall threat in the mountainous regions along its path through Mexico.

92L
A tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic (Invest 92L) is disorganized, with satellite loops showing limited heavy thunderstorm activity and a modest amount of spin at mid-levels of the atmosphere. A large amount of dry air to the west and north of 92L is interfering with development, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots. None of the reliable computer models develop 92L. The GFS model predicts 92L will reach the Lesser Antilles Islands on Saturday, but the other major models show a much slower motion with no threat to the islands for at least six days. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 30% of developing into a tropical cyclone by Friday morning.

A tropical wave predicted to move off the coast of Africa on Thursday night is predicted to develop by both the GFS and ECMWF models.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2497 - 2447

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

2497. Gorty
3:18 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting WxLogic:
Indeed we have TD#7 now.


Its not on the 11 am advisory though?
Member Since: November 8, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1058
2496. PensacolaDoug
2:34 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting hurrtracker1994:


We watch everything at NHC.



Well what happened with Humberto then?
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 564
2495. StormTracker2K
2:09 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
Here you go: TD 7--

invest_RENUMBER_al922012_al072012.ren

invest_al072012.invest

AL, 07, 2012080912, , BEST, 0, 137N, 417W, 25, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SEVEN,


I gotta tell you there is no better at letting us know when there is a newly formed invest or storm. Good job Nea.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
2494. mitthbevnuruodo
2:08 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:

This guy got to Ernesto


Thanks for that :)
Member Since: October 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 842
2493. allancalderini
2:08 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
td 7 really wow?
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4351
2492. mitthbevnuruodo
2:07 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting hurrtracker1994:


My source was the NHC (since I work there). This particular storm chaser reported to us. It will all be used in post storm analysis.


Isn't it nice the NHC has these crazy people....I mean, brave and passionate people, who will get themselves in as close to the eye as possible and take measurements, all in the name of fun and adventure?! LOL Ok, and science, but reckon the thrill is more than the science with the nutters...I mean brave and passionate folkes, really I do :D
Member Since: October 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 842
2491. WxLogic
2:07 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Indeed we have TD#7 now.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4972
2490. mikatnight
2:06 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting Coastalgramps:


Don't know what part of the coast you're on, but I've got a History Page (Evernote file) pertaining mainly to Palm Beach County you might find interesting.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
2489. wxchaser97
2:05 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Today is a nice, cool, and rainy day where I'm at and this could easily help with the drought. Coming down pretty hard now and I'm happy:)
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
2488. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:05 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
2487. SFLWeatherman
2:04 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Do we have TD 7??
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4532
2486. hurrtracker1994
2:04 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Maybe TD-7? I am extremely surprised!
Member Since: May 23, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 128
2485. AussieStorm
2:04 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting mikatnight:


Which reminds me, when was the last time that chart has been updated?

Oh, and hello Aussie!

Good Morning
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
2484. Stormchaser2007
2:03 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
I don't think this remuber will stick until 11am

92L has it's LLC exsposed...
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15892
2483. hurrtracker1994
2:02 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF, as usual.


Thank you!
Member Since: May 23, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 128
2482. hydrus
2:01 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting PlazaRed:


Just a snipit I picked up from the BBC, jsut now.

"Global food prices rise in July due to extreme weather."

"Cereal prices surged 17%, while sugar leapt 12% to new highs in July from the previous month after rains hampered sugarcane harvesting in Brazil, the world's largest producer."

Here's the link if you want to copy and paste it?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19193390
Its off topic. I am sriously angry with"some" of the companies that manufacture food products..They are ripping people off, and I am sick of it. (92L does not look like much, but that should change when it nears the islands.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21264
2480. wxchaser97
2:01 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Full tropical update
Going to be gone for a while later today. Ernesto is making landfall near Coatxacoalcos, MX.
Why me, just as I post this entry 92L is renumbered to TD7, I'll update that later today.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
2479. Stormchaser2007
2:00 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al922012_al072012.renFSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208091354
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15892
2478. kshipre1
2:00 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
did NHC designate this as a TD? sorry, I maybe I misunderstood.
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
2477. Neapolitan
2:00 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting hurrtracker1994:


Really? Thats surprising. Can I have the link to your source?
ATCF, as usual.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13538
2476. mikatnight
2:00 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:

Peak is September 10 not August 10.
oh and you posted....... the chart.


Which reminds me, when was the last time that chart has been updated?

Oh, and hello Aussie!
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
2475. hurrtracker1994
1:58 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
Here you go: TD 7--

invest_RENUMBER_al922012_al072012.ren


Really? Thats surprising. Can I have the link to your source?
Member Since: May 23, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 128
2474. kshipre1
1:57 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
thanks. I guess the GFS showing MJO returning around August 20 and staying for some time makes sense.
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
2473. Neapolitan
1:55 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Here you go: TD 7--

invest_RENUMBER_al922012_al072012.ren

invest_al072012.invest

AL, 07, 2012080912, , BEST, 0, 137N, 417W, 25, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SEVEN,
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13538
2472. PlazaRed
1:55 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


tons of rain and i't still in this non-existent drought:



dont even really know why we are in a much of a drought of all


Just a snipit I picked up from the BBC, jsut now.

"Global food prices rise in July due to extreme weather."

"Cereal prices surged 17%, while sugar leapt 12% to new highs in July from the previous month after rains hampered sugarcane harvesting in Brazil, the world's largest producer."

Here's the link if you want to copy and paste it?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19193390
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2079
2471. AussieStorm
1:55 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting Coastalgramps:


Looks like it


Peak is September 10 not August 10.
oh and you posted....... the chart.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
2470. LostTomorrows
1:54 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:

I prefer the classic over the new look.


This look is kind of cartoony, in my opinion.

By the way... I think Ernie's a hurricane. And I'm assuming he'll be upgraded to a category 2 upon post analysis. There's no way he wasn't one.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 598
2468. SFLWeatherman
1:53 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Going up to CAT 1 is this Ernesto twins?? lol

Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4532
2467. wunderkidcayman
1:52 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting Chiggy:
Actually 00Z Euro develops the 92L more than 06Z GFS, and so do the 06Z HWRF, GFDL, and 00Z CMC.
So I guess there is some model consensus of a moderate tropical storm in the eastern Caribbean in 3 days time.
Very similar to what we had for Ernesto at the same stage of development.

92L needs to be watched to say the least!

yep so true I have a bad feeling about this one Chiggy it being further N it it follows a a Ernesto type track plus being further N it will be more of a problem for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12038
2466. AussieStorm
1:52 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


lol, its classic WU, i knew something looked wrong....

I prefer the classic over the new look.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
2465. kshipre1
1:52 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
so, can we assume this means after August 14, tropical activity in atlantic will go quiet again for some time?
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
2463. hurrtracker1994
1:51 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting TheOnlyBravesFan:


We have severe storms today, and tomorrow... Better than tropical storms, at least to me.


I can not argue with that. I have done my time in the NWS. Severe storms are really exciting to deal with, especially when your chasing them haha. Although, a tropical system is like a severe storm on steroids.
Member Since: May 23, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 128
2462. Chiggy
1:51 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Going up to 63KT now

I always wanted to know this: How accurate are the SHIPS intensity models and does it also have track? I never see a track from SHIPS model. If so then can someone please post a link here, thank you!
Member Since: June 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 297
2461. GeorgiaStormz
1:50 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:

*nose punch*
it's another option.


I tried it....
*nosebleed*
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9730
2460. allancalderini
1:50 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
LLC trying to escape...

Already.

I am still not sure if this one will develop into Gordon.maybe it will maybe it will not.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4351
2459. rmbjoe1954
1:50 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting Chiggy:
Actually 00Z Euro develops the 92L more than 06Z GFS, and so do the 06Z HWRF, GFDL, and 00Z CMC.
So I guess there is some model consensus of a moderate tropical storm in the eastern Caribbean in 3 days time.
Very similar to what we had for Ernesto at the same stage of development.

92L needs to be watched to say the least!


You are so right, :-)
Member Since: June 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1326
2458. Dodabear
1:50 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting hurricane23:


Low level flow issues AGAIN :0(


Hey "Killer," good to see you.
Member Since: July 28, 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 2279
2457. kshipre1
1:50 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
am curious about some of the model runs on the CMC and GFS seeing a strong tropical storm in the EGOM. who thinks this is credible given it is only five days out?
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
2456. GeorgiaStormz
1:50 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:

WU has it's on chat room here.


lol, its classic WU, i knew something looked wrong....
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9730
2455. Stormchaser2007
1:49 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
From one of my favorite "Keyboard Mets"

(The NHC cited his work in the first discussion for Florence)

(Key: Low activity = 1 tropical cyclone; Medium activity = 2 tropical cyclones; High activity = 3+ tropical cyclones.)

"August 2-14: High Activity; Confidence 50%. Conditions are projected to become favorable for Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis during this time as the convectively active phase of a strong eastward propagating convectively-coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW) passes over the Atlantic. The declaration of Tropical Depression 5 has occurred while superimposed with the convectively active phase of this strong CCKW.

With regards to the MJO, using an EOF analysis composed of U200, U850, and VP200, the MJO is providing a favorable environment for deep convection over the East Pacific (Phase 8). This location is different than what most real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) indices suggest using U200, U850, and OLR for the EOF calculation. The added value of using VP200 instead of OLR in the EOF calculation is that the new RMM principle components (PCs) capture more (OLR, U850) variance over the Western Hemisphere, serving as an improved RMM index there. RMM phase 3 is the most favorable phase for genesis, therefore suggesting the Atlantic will remain in active state through August 14. Further, Atlantic hurricanes are most frequent during RMM phases 1-3. Therefore, there is increased potential for any storms to develop to intensify into hurricanes during this time."

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15892
2454. GeorgiaStormz
1:49 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting TheOnlyBravesFan:


We have severe storms today, and tomorrow... Better than tropical storms, at least to me.


so its not gonna hit me, and its not major
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9730
2453. wunderkidcayman
1:49 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
LLC trying to escape...

Already.


nah not really look on it from rainbow you can see convection starting to build on the W side of the circulation
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12038
2452. Chiggy
1:49 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Actually 00Z Euro develops the 92L more than 06Z GFS, and so do the 06Z HWRF, GFDL, and 00Z CMC.
So I guess there is some model consensus of a moderate tropical storm in the eastern Caribbean in 3 days time.
Very similar to what we had for Ernesto at the same stage of development.

92L needs to be watched to say the least!
Member Since: June 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 297
2451. rmbjoe1954
1:49 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
92L is taking on more tropical storm-like features.

I wonder why 06Z GFS doesn't do anything with it seeing it has a 70% chance of developing within 48 hours.

Perhaps 12Z run may show development.
Member Since: June 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1326
2450. AussieStorm
1:49 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


*Facepalm*
No aussie, he means private mail, not chat

*nose punch*
it's another option.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
2449. kshipre1
1:48 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
good morning Reed. what is the UKMET saying?
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
2448. GeorgiaStormz
1:47 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting hurrtracker1994:
You know what this blog needs right now... A nice cup of warm Tropical storm soup. If anyone needs something to track look over at the EPAC. We got a hurricane over there.


yah but its boring....a cat 1 headed to death right now...away from land
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9730
2447. reedzone
1:47 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

ok that make no sense
and it make landfall in the capital of Grand Cayman GT but atleast it misses my house its on the N side of the island in WB

but really BAMS is further S
12Z



UKMET has the right idea for the African wave (in my opinion).
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7390

Viewing: 2497 - 2447

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.