Ernesto nearing hurricane strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:02 PM GMT on August 06, 2012

Share this Blog
54
+

Tropical Storm Ernesto is undergoing significant strengthening, and is not far from hurricane strength, according to data from this morning's Hurricane Hunter mission. The Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm found the pressure had dropped to 997 mb at 8:13 am EDT, and had dropped another 3 mb to 994 mb at 9:17 am. Surface winds as seen by their SFMR instrument had increased to 68 mph, and the plane found 89 mph winds at their flight level of 5,000 feet, on the northwest side of the eye. A full eyewall surrounding a small 9-mile diameter eye had formed. Ernesto's forward speed has slowed down to 12 mph--just half of what it was 24 hours ago, and this has allowed the surface center to align itself with the circulation at middle levels of the atmosphere. Visible satellite loops show that Ernesto's heaviest thunderstorms are now located near the center of the storm, and these thunderstorms have expanded in areal extent and intensity to form a Central Dense Overcast (CDO), a feature of intensifying tropical storms. Ernesto is still battling moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the west. Water vapor satellite loops show dry air to the west, but the environment around Ernesto is the moistest we've seen since it entered the Caribbean. On Sunday, Ernesto brought 1.73" of rain to Kingston, Jamaica, and top sustained winds of 37 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Now that Ernesto has slowed down in response to a trough of low pressure passing to the north, continued steady intensification appears likely. While wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate range the next two days, Ernesto is over warm ocean waters of 28°C with very high heat content, and rapid intensification to a Category 2 hurricane is possible today. The 8 am EDT SHIPS model forecast predicts a 26% chance of rapid intensification--a 30 mph increase in winds over a 24-hour period. The main obstacle to intensification will probably be proximity to land, as the center of Ernesto is likely to pass very close to the coast of Honduras late Monday night. This will put a portion of the storm's circulation over land, limiting intensification potential.

The winds this Monday morning at Puerto Lempira on the northeast coast of Honduras have not yet begun to increase, but will begin to rise this afternoon and peak near midnight tonight. High winds and heavy rains will spread westwards along the coast of Honduras early Tuesday morning, and reach coastal Belize near 2 pm Tuesday. If Ernesto survives its crossing of the Yucatan Peninsula, the potential exists for it to re-strengthen over the Bay of Campeche, and make a second landfall on Mexico's coast Thursday night south of Veracruz. However, most of the computer models predict that Ernesto will pop out so far south in the Bay of Campeche that the storm will have less than 24 hours over water. This makes significant re-intensification unlikely. I don't expect rain from Ernesto will get as far north as Brownsville, Texas.

Tropical Storm Florence
Tropical Depression Florence is dissipating due to dry air and cool waters, and is not a threat to re-develop.

Historic heat wave ends in Oklahoma
The high temperature in Oklahoma City on Sunday reached 99°, snapping a string of 18 straight days the temperature had reached 100° or greater. The latest forecast calls for a few more days of temperatures in excess of 100° this week, but nothing like the heat wave last week that brought an unprecedented three straight days of 112° heat. The winds today in Oklahoma will be considerably lower than we saw over the weekend, which will aid firefighting efforts.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a new post on July's heat extremes in the U.S.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 3596 - 3546

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72Blog Index

3596. WalkingInTheSun
2:51 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
BTW -- Look at the visible sat loop up close now.
That bad boy, Ernesto, still likes to color outside the lines! His center is puckered up just outside the northern edge of the cone path-projection. Naughty boy.
Member Since: June 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1299
3595. WalkingInTheSun
2:41 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Quoting missionRN14:
HEy what happened to... "theres no chance of Flo redeveloping"? I see orange!!


Lol - that always gets my attention when someone says something like "never" in regards to a tropical system....
Member Since: June 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1299
3594. PensacolaDoug
2:41 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Quoting MiamiSurvivor:




Just wanted you all to have the visual, dont beat me for it, they really are huge.




I thought the stork brought those things!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 694
3593. cg2916
2:36 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
New blog!
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
3592. WalkingInTheSun
2:35 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

its moving like Ernesto when ernesto was 99L invest and I noticed models have shifted Swards and Wwards

00Z


06Z


12Z


also the funny thing is that Ernesto-EX-99L origanaly had it going N or the NE Carib islands

well 92L could be Renesto part 2 in the next week or two


I think 92L definitely bears watching! - Dangerous trajectory so far.

On Ernesto, I'm sticking with my previous thoughts, and believe it's headed for Texas. Here's why. First, there's a pile-up of moisture near Cuba & the Yucatan channel & the latter has the hottest waters of the Caribbean -- bad mixture. I think it'll draw Ernesto a bit more to the north as storms build on that side...& Ernesto swells in size. As size increases, > chance of staying more to the north, IMO.

Also, the LBAR model continues to show this storm heading NW toward Brownsville & hooking upward. That's the same basic direction Ernesto has kept since it dramatically shifted north off the coast of Honduras. NOAA says of the (LBAR) model that "...LBAR performs best early in the hurricane season (before fronts penetrate into the subtropics) and on storms that move primarily westward and only move slowly northward. LBAR outperforms all the statistical track guidance models, and its skill in the 12-36 hr time frame is comparable to that of the more complex baroclinic models."
I think this storm absolutely fits that description.

Third, the UL in the western GOM is leaving (west) & slightly deformed now (it seems). It is pulling UL-winds toward the NE across the GOM, w/moisture.

I think Ernesto will leave the Yucatan much further north than most models predict, giving much more room to build again & less loss during crossing. That would place it on a path quite near the hottest gulf waters -- a veritable heat-bomb of hot water & hot air. That's sort of a continuance of what's in the Yucatan channel now, only more so, and hurricanes love to "migrate" toward such zones. It often happens with storms that appear in the Gulf of Campeche in fact, causing them to migrate northward after they start.
Member Since: June 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1299
3591. sar2401
2:29 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Quoting missionRN14:
HEy what happened to... "theres no chance of Flo redeveloping"? I see orange!!


It's going to redevelop as some kind of post-tropical/extra tropical low in the central Atlantic and get caught up in the normal north Atlantic winds and upset some fish...and maybe make a few sailors a little more seasick. :)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17942
3590. 954FtLCane
2:27 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Quoting Waltanater:
Do you think it will hit SFLA in time for the 20th Anniversary of Hurricane Andrew? It is "92L" after all!

Unless it takes it's time and stays out there for 17 more days then I highly doubt that. It should take a storm roughly 7-10 days to reach s fla at normal speed.
Member Since: September 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
3589. catastropheadjuster
2:27 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
If Ernesto keeps his current heading he will.



Yellow line show landfall & track with current heading of 311.


from the looks of this, Ernie want be over land very long it he just hits the tip of the Yucatan. But isn't there something in the GOM Blocking anything from making it through there?

Sheri
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3683
3588. sar2401
2:25 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
....look out south eastern states, might be some flood warnings coming out later


There are alread flood warnings in SE AL and the Florida Panhandle. Still clear, hot, and humid 75 miles west, dang it.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17942
3587. sar2401
2:24 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Quoting Waltanater:
Do you think it will hit SFLA in time for the 20th Anniversary of Hurricane Andrew? It is "92L" after all!


Ummmm....no. It's not going to make it anywhere near Miami. It's going to be yet another invest that's born and then dies. Too much dry air and shear to overcome.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17942
3586. missionRN14
2:23 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
HEy what happened to... "theres no chance of Flo redeveloping"? I see orange!!
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7
3585. SaintPatrick
2:22 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
new blog
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 90
3584. LargoFl
2:20 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
....look out south eastern states, might be some flood warnings coming out later
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42933
3583. wunderkidcayman
2:20 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I'm shocked! :)

its moving like Ernesto when ernesto was 99L invest and I noticed models have shifted Swards and Wwards

00Z


06Z


12Z


also the funny thing is that Ernesto-EX-99L origanaly had it going N or the NE Carib islands

well 92L could be ernesto part 2 in the next week or two
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12728
3582. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:19 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
3581. jeffs713
2:18 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Yeah, 70 or above lows seem pretty normal for summer. Maybe it's just in Georgia lol.

Looking through the monthly observation archives that accuweather provides, there wasn't a single day the thermometer went below 70 in my location (Macon) for the month of July. Today's the 40th day in a row the low isn't going below 70. But that probably happens most summers

Here in Houston, it is an event when the thermometer goes below 70 between June and August.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5891
3580. HurricaneSwirl
2:17 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Atlanta has had 40-50 days of 70 lows as best i can tell...so that doesnt seem too major


Yeah, 70 or above lows seem pretty normal for summer. Maybe it's just in Georgia lol.

Looking through the monthly observation archives that accuweather provides, there wasn't a single day the thermometer went below 70 in my location (Macon) for the month of July. Today's the 40th day in a row the low isn't going below 70. But that probably happens most summers
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
3579. LargoFl
2:17 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Quoting MiamiSurvivor:




Just wanted you all to have the visual, dont beat me for it, they really are huge.
LOL on that pic
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42933
3578. Waltanater
2:16 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Quoting sar2401:


I don't think 92l is going to turn into any kind of storm. It will be gone within 36 hours.
Do you think it will hit SFLA in time for the 20th Anniversary of Hurricane Andrew? It is "92L" after all!
Member Since: May 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1472
3577. GeorgiaStormz
2:16 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Quoting Clearwater1:
Does PETA know about this?


peta doesnt know that i kill snakes in my yard....i'd hope we never tell them
*SWAT**
*kills mosquito*
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9762
3576. DaytonaBeachWatcher
2:15 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Quoting MiamiSurvivor:




Just wanted you all to have the visual, dont beat me for it, they really are huge.


You should see the size of them in Alaska.
Member Since: June 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1136
3575. weatherh98
2:15 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, August 7th, with Video
thanks
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6540
3574. jeffs713
2:15 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


exaggeration....:)
you guys have the west nile virus going around over there?

Yep, just had another case reported this week.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5891
3573. oreodogsghost
2:15 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
What's up with the goofy storm icons on the intro map? TWC flexing its muscles?
Member Since: February 2, 2009 Posts: 21 Comments: 1464
3572. LargoFl
2:15 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


I was just wondering is that the left overs from 91l from I think last week coming back to florida?

sheri
..it sure looks like extreme northern florida and georgia will be getting its rains again..going up the east coast someone said when it gets back here,like it made a Uturn
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42933
3571. AussieStorm
2:14 PM GMT on August 07, 2012



Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15985
3570. GeorgiaStormz
2:14 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Quoting jeffs713:

Was this taken in my back yard?

(also, we aren't talking about Crane Flies.. those have already died off. I'm talking about mosquitoes that are literally an inch long)


exaggeration....:)
you guys have the west nile virus going around over there?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9762
3569. hurricanehunter27
2:14 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Ernesto seems to have moved a bit more west. Recon is heading in the direction that would indicate this. That being said they may do a quick turn like they do sometimes.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3854
3568. Clearwater1
2:14 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Quoting jeffs713:

I don't think I would ever want to be near the fish that ate a sinking dropsonde, since they are about 4" in diameter and 2-3 feet long... And made partially of metal.
Does PETA know about this?
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1548
3567. sar2401
2:13 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Quoting cheaterwon:


I thought they were retrieved and reused is that not correct?


No, they're not. They float for a bit, then sink. I think they can stay on the surface for maybe an hour. They are made as cheaply as possible, considering what they do, so being watertight for very long is not part of the specs. As I said, I found one while diving. You're probably thinking of weather packages from ballons. They are reused if found, and even carry intructions on how to get it back to the NWS station that launched the balloon.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17942
3566. jpsb
2:13 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
If you measure it from from each drop in the last 2 passes he is. The exact measurement is 311.24 to be exact.
Hmmm, probably a temporary deviation from his western track, but if the NW persists this is a brand new ball game.
Member Since: June 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1324
3565. tatoprweather
2:12 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Quoting Tazmanian:
am not giveing up 92L it has a ch
What's a ch
Member Since: April 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 136
3564. Levi32
2:12 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, August 7th, with Video
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26716
3563. jeffs713
2:12 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Quoting MiamiSurvivor:




Just wanted you all to have the visual, dont beat me for it, they really are huge.

Was this taken in my back yard?

(also, we aren't talking about Crane Flies.. those have already died off. I'm talking about mosquitoes that are literally an inch long)
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5891
3562. catastropheadjuster
2:11 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:


I was just wondering is that the left overs from 91l from I think last week coming back to florida?

sheri
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3683
3561. MiamiSurvivor
2:09 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Quoting jeffs713:

We've had hordes mosquitoes that could pick up small animals (it seems) around here since our flooding event last month. They are starting to fade a bit, but I know they are just waiting for the next heavy rain to abduct small children and anything under about 50 lbs.




Just wanted you all to have the visual, dont beat me for it, they really are huge.
Member Since: October 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 17
3560. hurricanehunter27
2:09 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Quoting jpsb:
Is Ernesto really heading 311?
If you measure it from from each drop in the last 2 passes he is. The exact measurement is 311.24 to be exact. Reference post 3471.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3854
3559. weatherh98
2:09 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Quoting jpsb:
Is Ernesto really heading 311?


yup
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6540
3558. jeffs713
2:08 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I think 92L will develop into a storm and I think it will be a caribbean tracker

What makes you so sure about that?
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5891
3557. GeorgiaStormz
2:08 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Atlanta has had 40-50 days of 70 lows as best i can tell...so that doesnt seem too major
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9762
3556. cheaterwon
2:08 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Quoting stillwaiting:
,i believe they actually float as they would be sealed from the elements their dropping them into tropical cyclones,,ibelieve a wu blogger found one a couple yrs ago.


I thought they were retrieved and reused is that not correct?
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 203
3555. GeoffreyWPB
2:08 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I think 92L will develop into a storm and I think it will be a caribbean tracker


I'm shocked! :)
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11579
3554. jpsb
2:08 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:


yes this has defiedforecasts so far
Is Ernesto really heading 311?
Member Since: June 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1324
3553. jeffs713
2:07 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Quoting stillwaiting:
,i believe they actually float as they would be sealed from the elements their dropping them into tropical cyclones,,ibelieve a wu blogger found one a couple yrs ago.

They are specifically designed to sink, and they are also made of metal.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5891
3552. GeorgiaStormz
2:07 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Quoting jeffs713:

I don't think I would ever want to be near the fish that ate a sinking dropsonde, since they are about 4" in diameter and 2-3 feet long... And made partially of metal.


fish eat anything...that nice metal glint looks like scales...of course its a big fish
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9762
3551. wunderkidcayman
2:07 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
I think 92L will develop into a storm and I think it will be a caribbean tracker
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12728
3550. wxchaser97
2:07 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:

Now that this site is in the hands of TWC, I have adblock ad on so I have no ads.

I was told about Adblocker alittle bit ago and got that so I'm good.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7975
3549. stillwaiting
2:06 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


so there are tons of dropsondes sitting at the bottom of the ocean unless a fish decided to eat it on the way down?

It would be cool to find one on a ocean bottom dive in a sub.
,i believe they actually float as they would be sealed from the elements their dropping them into tropical cyclones,,ibelieve a wu blogger found one a couple yrs ago.
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
3548. weatherh98
2:05 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Well there is no reason why he would change to a more west track right now. He is currently heading NW and deepening.


yes this has defiedforecasts so far
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6540
3547. hurricanehunter27
2:04 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:


in other words, xtrp model
Well there is no reason why he would change to a more west track right now. He is currently heading NW and deepening so might as well assume he will keep the current heading.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3854
3546. sar2401
2:04 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


so there are tons of dropsondes sitting at the bottom of the ocean unless a fish decided to eat it on the way down?

It would be cool to find one on a ocean bottom dive in a sub.


I found one while diving a wreck at 100 feet off Grenada. I think it was a leftover from Ivan. I've still got it around here somewhere.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17942

Viewing: 3596 - 3546

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Sunset at Fort DeSoto
New Years Day Sunset in Death Valley
Big Sur Clouds
Steaming Redwood