Ernesto nearing hurricane strength
Tropical Storm Ernesto is undergoing significant strengthening, and is not far from hurricane strength, according to data from this morning's Hurricane Hunter mission. The Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm found the pressure had dropped to 997 mb at 8:13 am EDT, and had dropped another 3 mb to 994 mb at 9:17 am. Surface winds as seen by their SFMR instrument had increased to 68 mph, and the plane found 89 mph winds at their flight level of 5,000 feet, on the northwest side of the eye. A full eyewall surrounding a small 9-mile diameter eye had formed. Ernesto's forward speed has slowed down to 12 mph--just half of what it was 24 hours ago, and this has allowed the surface center to align itself with the circulation at middle levels of the atmosphere. Visible satellite loops show that Ernesto's heaviest thunderstorms are now located near the center of the storm, and these thunderstorms have expanded in areal extent and intensity to form a Central Dense Overcast (CDO), a feature of intensifying tropical storms. Ernesto is still battling moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the west. Water vapor satellite loops show dry air to the west, but the environment around Ernesto is the moistest we've seen since it entered the Caribbean. On Sunday, Ernesto brought 1.73" of rain to Kingston, Jamaica, and top sustained winds of 37 mph.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.
Forecast for Ernesto
Now that Ernesto has slowed down in response to a trough of low pressure passing to the north, continued steady intensification appears likely. While wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate range the next two days, Ernesto is over warm ocean waters of 28°C with very high heat content, and rapid intensification to a Category 2 hurricane is possible today. The 8 am EDT SHIPS model forecast predicts a 26% chance of rapid intensification--a 30 mph increase in winds over a 24-hour period. The main obstacle to intensification will probably be proximity to land, as the center of Ernesto is likely to pass very close to the coast of Honduras late Monday night. This will put a portion of the storm's circulation over land, limiting intensification potential.
The winds this Monday morning at Puerto Lempira on the northeast coast of Honduras have not yet begun to increase, but will begin to rise this afternoon and peak near midnight tonight. High winds and heavy rains will spread westwards along the coast of Honduras early Tuesday morning, and reach coastal Belize near 2 pm Tuesday. If Ernesto survives its crossing of the Yucatan Peninsula, the potential exists for it to re-strengthen over the Bay of Campeche, and make a second landfall on Mexico's coast Thursday night south of Veracruz. However, most of the computer models predict that Ernesto will pop out so far south in the Bay of Campeche that the storm will have less than 24 hours over water. This makes significant re-intensification unlikely. I don't expect rain from Ernesto will get as far north as Brownsville, Texas.
Tropical Storm Florence
Tropical Depression Florence is dissipating due to dry air and cool waters, and is not a threat to re-develop.
Historic heat wave ends in Oklahoma
The high temperature in Oklahoma City on Sunday reached 99°, snapping a string of 18 straight days the temperature had reached 100° or greater. The latest forecast calls for a few more days of temperatures in excess of 100° this week, but nothing like the heat wave last week that brought an unprecedented three straight days of 112° heat. The winds today in Oklahoma will be considerably lower than we saw over the weekend, which will aid firefighting efforts.
Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a new post on July's heat extremes in the U.S.
Jeff Masters
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fish eat anything...that nice metal glint looks like scales...of course its a big fish
They are specifically designed to sink, and they are also made of metal.
I'm shocked! :)
I thought they were retrieved and reused is that not correct?
What makes you so sure about that?
yup
Just wanted you all to have the visual, dont beat me for it, they really are huge.
I was just wondering is that the left overs from 91l from I think last week coming back to florida?
sheri
Was this taken in my back yard?
(also, we aren't talking about Crane Flies.. those have already died off. I'm talking about mosquitoes that are literally an inch long)
Blog update:
Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, August 7th, with Video
No, they're not. They float for a bit, then sink. I think they can stay on the surface for maybe an hour. They are made as cheaply as possible, considering what they do, so being watertight for very long is not part of the specs. As I said, I found one while diving. You're probably thinking of weather packages from ballons. They are reused if found, and even carry intructions on how to get it back to the NWS station that launched the balloon.
exaggeration....:)
you guys have the west nile virus going around over there?
Yep, just had another case reported this week.
You should see the size of them in Alaska.
peta doesnt know that i kill snakes in my yard....i'd hope we never tell them
*SWAT**
*kills mosquito*
Yeah, 70 or above lows seem pretty normal for summer. Maybe it's just in Georgia lol.
Looking through the monthly observation archives that accuweather provides, there wasn't a single day the thermometer went below 70 in my location (Macon) for the month of July. Today's the 40th day in a row the low isn't going below 70. But that probably happens most summers
Here in Houston, it is an event when the thermometer goes below 70 between June and August.
its moving like Ernesto when ernesto was 99L invest and I noticed models have shifted Swards and Wwards
00Z
06Z
12Z
also the funny thing is that Ernesto-EX-99L origanaly had it going N or the NE Carib islands
well 92L could be ernesto part 2 in the next week or two
Ummmm....no. It's not going to make it anywhere near Miami. It's going to be yet another invest that's born and then dies. Too much dry air and shear to overcome.
There are alread flood warnings in SE AL and the Florida Panhandle. Still clear, hot, and humid 75 miles west, dang it.
from the looks of this, Ernie want be over land very long it he just hits the tip of the Yucatan. But isn't there something in the GOM Blocking anything from making it through there?
Sheri
Unless it takes it's time and stays out there for 17 more days then I highly doubt that. It should take a storm roughly 7-10 days to reach s fla at normal speed.
It's going to redevelop as some kind of post-tropical/extra tropical low in the central Atlantic and get caught up in the normal north Atlantic winds and upset some fish...and maybe make a few sailors a little more seasick. :)
I think 92L definitely bears watching! - Dangerous trajectory so far.
On Ernesto, I'm sticking with my previous thoughts, and believe it's headed for Texas. Here's why. First, there's a pile-up of moisture near Cuba & the Yucatan channel & the latter has the hottest waters of the Caribbean -- bad mixture. I think it'll draw Ernesto a bit more to the north as storms build on that side...& Ernesto swells in size. As size increases, > chance of staying more to the north, IMO.
Also, the LBAR model continues to show this storm heading NW toward Brownsville & hooking upward. That's the same basic direction Ernesto has kept since it dramatically shifted north off the coast of Honduras. NOAA says of the (LBAR) model that "...LBAR performs best early in the hurricane season (before fronts penetrate into the subtropics) and on storms that move primarily westward and only move slowly northward. LBAR outperforms all the statistical track guidance models, and its skill in the 12-36 hr time frame is comparable to that of the more complex baroclinic models."
I think this storm absolutely fits that description.
Third, the UL in the western GOM is leaving (west) & slightly deformed now (it seems). It is pulling UL-winds toward the NE across the GOM, w/moisture.
I think Ernesto will leave the Yucatan much further north than most models predict, giving much more room to build again & less loss during crossing. That would place it on a path quite near the hottest gulf waters -- a veritable heat-bomb of hot water & hot air. That's sort of a continuance of what's in the Yucatan channel now, only more so, and hurricanes love to "migrate" toward such zones. It often happens with storms that appear in the Gulf of Campeche in fact, causing them to migrate northward after they start.
I thought the stork brought those things!
Lol - that always gets my attention when someone says something like "never" in regards to a tropical system....
That bad boy, Ernesto, still likes to color outside the lines! His center is puckered up just outside the northern edge of the cone path-projection. Naughty boy.
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