Ernesto disorganized; more fires, extreme heat for Oklahoma

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:25 PM GMT on August 05, 2012

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A disorganized Tropical Storm Ernesto continues to speed westward at 23 mph across the Caribbean. Ernesto has brought sporadic heavy rains to Jamaica today, and Kingston has picked up 0.51" of rain as of noon, and recorded top sustained winds of 22 mph. Ernesto looks very unhealthy on visible satellite loops, with its low-level circulation center a naked swirl exposed to view with almost no heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. However, the storm does have some rather far-flung spiral bands, and these bands are bringing occasional heavy downpours to Haiti, western Cuba, Jamaica, and the southwest Dominican Republic. This morning's flight by the Hurricane Hunters found that Ernesto had a very high central pressure of 1006 mb and top winds near 50 mph. The latest wind shear analysis from the SHIPS model shows moderate shear of 10 - 15 knots affecting the storm, but there must be some wind shear the satellites are not able to detect affecting Ernesto, given its disorganized appearance. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west, and this dry air is also interfering with Ernesto's organization.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image with 375 meter resolution taken of Ernesto by the new Suomi NPP satellite at 1:39 pm EDT August 4, 2012. At the time, Ernesto had a flare-up of intense thunderstorms, and had top winds of 60 mph. Image credit: University of Wisconsin Madison CIMSS.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's rapid forward speed of 23 mph has been part of the reason for its lack of intensification, but the storm is expected to slow down Monday and Tuesday in response to a trough of low pressure passing to the north. This slowing, in combination with low wind shear, a moister environment, and increasing heat energy in the ocean, may allow Ernesto to strengthen some before making landfall in Belize or Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday night. However, the storm will be passing very close to the north coast of Honduras, putting a portion of its circulation over land and limiting intensification potential. It is unlikely Ernesto will become a hurricane in the Caribbean; NHC is giving just a 19% chance that this will occur. The main threat from Ernesto will be heavy rains over Honduras, Belize, Mexico, and Jamaica. The track forecast for Ernesto has become a bit easier, since the storm's current disorganization and more southerly path make will make it more difficult for the storm to make a northwesterly turn into the Gulf of Mexico like the UKMET and GFDL models are predicting. A stronger Ernesto would have been more likely to turn northwest under the influence of a trough of low pressure passing to the north. If Ernesto survives its crossing of the Yucatan Peninsula, the potential exists for it to re-strengthen over the Bay of Campeche, and make a second landfall on Mexico's coast on Friday, between Tampico and Veracruz. It's pretty unlikely that Ernesto will hit the U.S.-- though Brownsville, Texas could see some rain from Ernesto's outer spiral bands on Friday, if the storm survives that long.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto, showing the exposed low-level center--a swirl due south of Jamaica--and only very limited heavy thunderstorm activity surrounding the center.

Tropical Storm Florence
Tropical Storm Florence continues to plow westward at 14 mph over the Eastern Atlantic, and is not a threat to any land areas for next five days. The SHIPS model is predicting a moderate 5 - 15 knots of wind shear for Florence Sunday and Monday, but the shear will increase to the high range as Florence encounters an upper-level trough of low pressure on Tuesday. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis shows that a large area of dry air lies to the north and west of Florence, and this dry air will likely cause problems for the storm. Ocean temperature are near 26 - 26.5°C, which is right at the threshold for where a tropical storm can typically exist. It is possible that Florence could pose a threat to Bermuda next weekend, if the storm survives that long. Both the GFS and ECMWF models dissipate Florence before then.

Historic heat wave in Oklahoma
A second day of destructive fires affected Oklahoma on Saturday, thanks to extreme heat and drought, low humidities, and strong winds in advance of an approaching cold front. At 3 pm CDT Saturday, Oklahoma City had a temperature of 107°, a humidity of 19%, and winds of 16 mph gusting to 22 mph. The Oklahoma fires have destroyed at least 125 homes. The high temperature in Oklahoma City on Saturday reached 109°, the 12th warmest temperature recorded in the city since records began in 1891. Friday's high of 113° tied for the warmest temperature in city history.


Figure 3. Highway 48 is covered in smoke as flames continue, Saturday, Aug 4, 2012, east of Drumright, OK. Image credit: Associated Press.

The only comparable Oklahoma heat wave: August 1936
The only heat wave in Oklahoma history that compares to the August 2012 heat wave occurred during the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936, the hottest summer in U.S. history. Oklahoma City experienced three days at 110° that summer, and a record streak of 22 straight days with a temperature of 100° or hotter. Those numbers are comparable to 2012's: three days at 110° or hotter, and a string of 18 consecutive days (so far) with temperatures of 100° or hotter. The weak cold front that passed though Oklahoma Saturday will bring temperatures about 10° cooler over the next few days, but high temperatures are still expected to approach 100° in Oklahoma City Sunday through Tuesday. It's worth noting that Oklahoma City has experienced only 11 days since 1890 with a high of 110° or greater. Three of those days were in 2011, three in 2012, and three in the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a new post on July's heat extremes in the U.S.


Figure 4. Most of Oklahoma has experienced nine consecutive days with highs of 100° or more, and many regions, including Oklahoma City, have had a streak of eighteen such days. Image credit: Oklahoma Mesonet.

Severe thunderstorm complex forces evacuation of Lollapalooza
A organized complex of severe thunderstorms developed over Eastern Iowa and Northern Illinois late Saturday afternoon, forming a dangerous bow echo that swept through Chicago, forcing the evacuation of the Lollapalooza music festival. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logged over 150 reports of wind damage from the storm, with five of the thunderstorms containing winds in excess of hurricane force (74 mph.) And just yesterday, my daughter was bemoaning her misfortune at not being able to get tickets to the show! The thunderstorm complex traveled about 300 miles from Eastern Iowa to Ohio, generating winds gust in excess of 58 mph along most of its path, meeting the definition of a derecho.


Figure 5. Radar image of the severe thunderstorm complex that spawned a dangerous bow echo over Chicago, which forced the evacuation of the Lollapalooza music festival.

Jeff Masters

IN THE EYE OF THE STORM (nanamac)
Storm clouds overwhelming Chicago
IN THE EYE OF THE STORM
IN THE EYE OF THE STORM (nanamac)
Sheets of rain & darkness!
IN THE EYE OF THE STORM
()
Storm damage (Bubbly)
Straight line winds during a severe thunderstorm left crumpled metal and splintered wood behind in Frytown, Iowa
Storm damage

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2183. GetReal
Anything on the current motion from the HH??
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Miami NWS Disco

THE MAIN WEATHER STORY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING
SURFACE TROUGH BEING DRIVEN BY TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO.
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Ernesto is bombing out big time....

Time: 12:04:30Z
Coordinates: 15.5167N 79.95W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.0 mb (~ 24.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,495 meters (~ 4,905 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 997.7 mb (~ 29.46 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 302° at 11 knots (From the WNW at ~ 12.6 mph)
Air Temp: 23.0°C (~ 73.4°F)
Dew Pt: 16.4°C (~ 61.5°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 15 knots (~ 17.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 16 knots* (~ 18.4 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 8 mm/hr* (~ 0.31 in/hr*)
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2180. GetReal
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 998.9 mb (~ 29.50 inHg)!!!!!!!



Sub 1000mb for the first time.... It needs to drop another 5mb, at least, to become a hurricane.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
HH found 65 mph winds and 997 pressure.


Time: 12:07:00Z
Coordinates: 15.6N 79.9667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.0 mb (~ 24.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,487 meters (~ 4,879 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1000.9 mb (~ 29.56 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 102 at 35 knots (From the ESE at ~ 40.2 mph)
Air Temp: 15.0C* (~ 59.0F*)
Dew Pt: 15.0C* (~ 59.0F*)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 38 knots (~ 43.7 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 55 knots (~ 63.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 10 mm/hr (~ 0.39 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

That is fairly close.

Do you mean this

Time: 12:08:30Z
Coordinates: 15.6N 80.0667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.9 mb (~ 24.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,501 meters (~ 4,925 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1001.2 mb (~ 29.57 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 44 at 32 knots (From the NE at ~ 36.8 mph)
Air Temp: 18.0C (~ 64.4F)
Dew Pt: 14.3C (~ 57.7F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 42 knots (~ 48.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 56 knots (~ 64.4 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 11 mm/hr (~ 0.43 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

Also many many readings over/near 60mph. Expect an upgrade at 11
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ime: 12:04:30Z
Coordinates: 15.5167N 79.95W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.0 mb (~ 24.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,495 meters (~ 4,905 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 997.7 mb (~ 29.46 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 302° at 11 knots (From the WNW at ~ 12.6 mph)
Air Temp: 23.0°C (~ 73.4°F)
Dew Pt: 16.4°C (~ 61.5°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 15 knots (~ 17.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 16 knots* (~ 18.4 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 8 mm/hr* (~ 0.31 in/hr*)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:


Why would it be lower?

Because winds that are sustained at one speed for 10 seconds are not sustained that fast for 1 minute.

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
HH found 65 mph winds and 997 pressure.

Same thing, those 65 mph winds are a 10 second average, the 30 second speed, closer to what the NHC uses, is only 58mph. That 997mb reading is very interesting though.
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Quoting ncstorm:
Good Morning..

Anyone seen the 00z CMC..

That's funny.Unless Ernesto RI very fast that's not going to happen.
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Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:


Why would it be lower?



Because short lived gust speeds are higher than wind speeds sustained for 60 seconds.
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looks like they found the center further NE location near 15.5N 97.9W
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12712
It going be a Hurricane today
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Extrap. Sfc. Press: 998.9 mb (~ 29.50 inHg)!!!!!!!
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Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:
Time: 12:01:30Z
Coordinates: 15.55N 80.1333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.1 mb (~ 24.90 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,532 meters (~ 5,026 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1002.2 mb (~ 29.59 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 12° at 35 knots (From the NNE at ~ 40.2 mph)
Air Temp: 22.5°C (~ 72.5°F)
Dew Pt: 14.8°C (~ 58.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 39 knots (~ 44.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 52 knots (~ 59.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 4 mm/hr (~ 0.16 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

More near 60mph winds.
HH found 65 mph winds and 997 pressure.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

That's a 10 second average though... The NHC uses a one minute average, which would be lower.


Why would it be lower?
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Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:
Time: 12:01:30Z
Coordinates: 15.55N 80.1333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.1 mb (~ 24.90 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,532 meters (~ 5,026 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1002.2 mb (~ 29.59 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 12° at 35 knots (From the NNE at ~ 40.2 mph)
Air Temp: 22.5°C (~ 72.5°F)
Dew Pt: 14.8°C (~ 58.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 39 knots (~ 44.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 52 knots (~ 59.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 4 mm/hr (~ 0.16 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

More near 60mph winds.

That's a 10 second average though... The NHC uses a one minute average, which would be lower.
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2167. GetReal
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Time: 12:01:30Z
Coordinates: 15.55N 80.1333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.1 mb (~ 24.90 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,532 meters (~ 5,026 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1002.2 mb (~ 29.59 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 12° at 35 knots (From the NNE at ~ 40.2 mph)
Air Temp: 22.5°C (~ 72.5°F)
Dew Pt: 14.8°C (~ 58.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 39 knots (~ 44.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 52 knots (~ 59.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 4 mm/hr (~ 0.16 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

More near 60mph winds.
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Here is the wave that GFS develops in Central Africa on a loop.

Link
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
They are in him now investigating.

Thanks, I have them up on GE now.
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tell.the.advertisers..kindly.of.course...we.dont.do .surveys....watching.ernesto
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2162. ncstorm
Good Morning..

Anyone seen the 00z CMC..

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I would wager some big bucks that the crisis centers are busy today with ernesto gonna miss the US and Florence a neked swirl. Man I love the tropics....
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Time: 12:01:30Z
Coordinates: 15.55N 80.1333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.1 mb (~ 24.90 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,532 meters (~ 5,026 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1002.2 mb (~ 29.59 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 12° at 35 knots (From the NNE at ~ 40.2 mph)
Air Temp: 22.5°C (~ 72.5°F)
Dew Pt: 14.8°C (~ 58.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 39 knots (~ 44.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 52 knots (~ 59.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 4 mm/hr (~ 0.16 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

Nicely strong winds with LOW rain rate... Another measurement like this near it.

AND they are not even near the center.
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2159. GetReal
Quoting AussieStorm:

Maybe he's just booming in size but still moving.
When's the next HH flight?



It could very well be the convection blowing up in that direction... Does anyone have the HH info?
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Hurricane hunters have found 54mph winds.
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well so far HH think the center is further E now plane traveling SE pressure now down to 1002mb
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12712
2156. GetReal
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Maybe he's just booming in size but still moving.
When's the next HH flight?
They are in him now investigating.
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Advisort is a guess with the coordinates and strength
till HH fly trough the center
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12712
Quoting islander101010:
long.way.off...
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Good morning.Looks like Ernesto will track right in on to Mexico.I don't think it'll be much of a chance for him to make a come back in the BOC.
long.way.off...first.needs.to.make.a.landfall
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Quoting GetReal:


The motion for Ernesto appears to be nearly stationary, or a slight movement towards the NW. IMO

Maybe he's just booming in size but still moving.
When's the next HH flight?
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2150. GetReal


The motion for Ernesto appears to be nearly stationary, or a slight movement towards the NW. IMO
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Good morning.Looks like Ernesto will track right in on to Mexico.I don't think it'll be much of a chance for him to make a come back in the BOC.
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Quoting weatherb0y:
Hey man dont't get to comfy with the GFS... it has it's days too. Lol

It's been right more than all the others combined.
I would go with the most trusted rather than the others.
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000
WTNT35 KNHC 061159
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
800 AM EDT MON AUG 06 2012

...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE COAST OF
HONDURAS TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 81.0W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES



WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA GRUESA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
* THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA TO
TULUM

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN BELIZE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. A
HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE
CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OF JUST NORTH OF THE
NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND APPROACH THE EAST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA AND
ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...
WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


11mph slower than it was this time yesterday. Ernesto needs to move north or it will hit HONDURAS.
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lol
Quoting washingaway:
Spaghetti with meat balls!
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Quoting stormpetrol:
I think Ernesto maybe drifting NW now



hey wow ernesto is impresive I think that the LLCOC of ernesto is at 15.8N 80.2W moving WNW-NW at 10< MPH with 70MPH or 75+MPH
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12712
Spaghetti with meat balls!
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Big rain for S FL now!!

Quoting StormTracker2K:
A lot of rain for FL this week now that the MJO is back.

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Quoting AussieStorm:

I am only follow what the GFS says. it's picked all 3 systems.
Discard all other models. GFS is the one to follow.
Hey man dont't get to comfy with the GFS... it has it's days too. Lol
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2141. GetReal
Ernesto has found the sw end of the Bermuda ridge and is now looking for new steering.
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A lot of rain for FL this week now that the MJO is back.

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2139. GetReal


If we get the RI it should feel this weakness to the north.
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
If it a Hurricane now what?? will go NW or N??

Depends on how quickly it strengthens. It will feel the weakness.
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2120. andsnowon: I just need the basic weather SSTs... I'm trying 2 show my girlfriend how warm the waters r in the Carr. & GULF


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2136. GetReal
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
If it a Hurricane now what?? will go NW or N??



If we get RI, which is possible this morning in Ernesto's current location it will probably feel the weakness to the north and take a more NW track in for the immediate future.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

I am only follow what the GFS says. it's picked all 3 systems.
Discard all other models. GFS is the one to follow.


GFS has been the king for sometime now. It looks like Ernesto is finally into more favorable conditions as the Eastern and Central Caribbean really did a number on Ernesto. Ernesto was dealing with dry coming up off from S America and strong trade winds which is very normal for this time of year across the Eastern and even C Caribbean during June, July and early August.

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2134. Hugo5
it appears ernesto is about to undergo some rapid intensification. I hope that the weather services pick this up soon and start to issue some new warnings.
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2133. GetReal





There is still a weakness for Ernesto to make a run into the GOM if there is a deepening of the system.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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