Ernesto disorganized; more fires, extreme heat for Oklahoma

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:25 PM GMT on August 05, 2012

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A disorganized Tropical Storm Ernesto continues to speed westward at 23 mph across the Caribbean. Ernesto has brought sporadic heavy rains to Jamaica today, and Kingston has picked up 0.51" of rain as of noon, and recorded top sustained winds of 22 mph. Ernesto looks very unhealthy on visible satellite loops, with its low-level circulation center a naked swirl exposed to view with almost no heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. However, the storm does have some rather far-flung spiral bands, and these bands are bringing occasional heavy downpours to Haiti, western Cuba, Jamaica, and the southwest Dominican Republic. This morning's flight by the Hurricane Hunters found that Ernesto had a very high central pressure of 1006 mb and top winds near 50 mph. The latest wind shear analysis from the SHIPS model shows moderate shear of 10 - 15 knots affecting the storm, but there must be some wind shear the satellites are not able to detect affecting Ernesto, given its disorganized appearance. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west, and this dry air is also interfering with Ernesto's organization.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image with 375 meter resolution taken of Ernesto by the new Suomi NPP satellite at 1:39 pm EDT August 4, 2012. At the time, Ernesto had a flare-up of intense thunderstorms, and had top winds of 60 mph. Image credit: University of Wisconsin Madison CIMSS.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's rapid forward speed of 23 mph has been part of the reason for its lack of intensification, but the storm is expected to slow down Monday and Tuesday in response to a trough of low pressure passing to the north. This slowing, in combination with low wind shear, a moister environment, and increasing heat energy in the ocean, may allow Ernesto to strengthen some before making landfall in Belize or Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday night. However, the storm will be passing very close to the north coast of Honduras, putting a portion of its circulation over land and limiting intensification potential. It is unlikely Ernesto will become a hurricane in the Caribbean; NHC is giving just a 19% chance that this will occur. The main threat from Ernesto will be heavy rains over Honduras, Belize, Mexico, and Jamaica. The track forecast for Ernesto has become a bit easier, since the storm's current disorganization and more southerly path make will make it more difficult for the storm to make a northwesterly turn into the Gulf of Mexico like the UKMET and GFDL models are predicting. A stronger Ernesto would have been more likely to turn northwest under the influence of a trough of low pressure passing to the north. If Ernesto survives its crossing of the Yucatan Peninsula, the potential exists for it to re-strengthen over the Bay of Campeche, and make a second landfall on Mexico's coast on Friday, between Tampico and Veracruz. It's pretty unlikely that Ernesto will hit the U.S.-- though Brownsville, Texas could see some rain from Ernesto's outer spiral bands on Friday, if the storm survives that long.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto, showing the exposed low-level center--a swirl due south of Jamaica--and only very limited heavy thunderstorm activity surrounding the center.

Tropical Storm Florence
Tropical Storm Florence continues to plow westward at 14 mph over the Eastern Atlantic, and is not a threat to any land areas for next five days. The SHIPS model is predicting a moderate 5 - 15 knots of wind shear for Florence Sunday and Monday, but the shear will increase to the high range as Florence encounters an upper-level trough of low pressure on Tuesday. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis shows that a large area of dry air lies to the north and west of Florence, and this dry air will likely cause problems for the storm. Ocean temperature are near 26 - 26.5°C, which is right at the threshold for where a tropical storm can typically exist. It is possible that Florence could pose a threat to Bermuda next weekend, if the storm survives that long. Both the GFS and ECMWF models dissipate Florence before then.

Historic heat wave in Oklahoma
A second day of destructive fires affected Oklahoma on Saturday, thanks to extreme heat and drought, low humidities, and strong winds in advance of an approaching cold front. At 3 pm CDT Saturday, Oklahoma City had a temperature of 107°, a humidity of 19%, and winds of 16 mph gusting to 22 mph. The Oklahoma fires have destroyed at least 125 homes. The high temperature in Oklahoma City on Saturday reached 109°, the 12th warmest temperature recorded in the city since records began in 1891. Friday's high of 113° tied for the warmest temperature in city history.


Figure 3. Highway 48 is covered in smoke as flames continue, Saturday, Aug 4, 2012, east of Drumright, OK. Image credit: Associated Press.

The only comparable Oklahoma heat wave: August 1936
The only heat wave in Oklahoma history that compares to the August 2012 heat wave occurred during the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936, the hottest summer in U.S. history. Oklahoma City experienced three days at 110° that summer, and a record streak of 22 straight days with a temperature of 100° or hotter. Those numbers are comparable to 2012's: three days at 110° or hotter, and a string of 18 consecutive days (so far) with temperatures of 100° or hotter. The weak cold front that passed though Oklahoma Saturday will bring temperatures about 10° cooler over the next few days, but high temperatures are still expected to approach 100° in Oklahoma City Sunday through Tuesday. It's worth noting that Oklahoma City has experienced only 11 days since 1890 with a high of 110° or greater. Three of those days were in 2011, three in 2012, and three in the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a new post on July's heat extremes in the U.S.


Figure 4. Most of Oklahoma has experienced nine consecutive days with highs of 100° or more, and many regions, including Oklahoma City, have had a streak of eighteen such days. Image credit: Oklahoma Mesonet.

Severe thunderstorm complex forces evacuation of Lollapalooza
A organized complex of severe thunderstorms developed over Eastern Iowa and Northern Illinois late Saturday afternoon, forming a dangerous bow echo that swept through Chicago, forcing the evacuation of the Lollapalooza music festival. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logged over 150 reports of wind damage from the storm, with five of the thunderstorms containing winds in excess of hurricane force (74 mph.) And just yesterday, my daughter was bemoaning her misfortune at not being able to get tickets to the show! The thunderstorm complex traveled about 300 miles from Eastern Iowa to Ohio, generating winds gust in excess of 58 mph along most of its path, meeting the definition of a derecho.


Figure 5. Radar image of the severe thunderstorm complex that spawned a dangerous bow echo over Chicago, which forced the evacuation of the Lollapalooza music festival.

Jeff Masters

IN THE EYE OF THE STORM (nanamac)
Storm clouds overwhelming Chicago
IN THE EYE OF THE STORM
IN THE EYE OF THE STORM (nanamac)
Sheets of rain & darkness!
IN THE EYE OF THE STORM
()
Storm damage (Bubbly)
Straight line winds during a severe thunderstorm left crumpled metal and splintered wood behind in Frytown, Iowa
Storm damage

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Just because it has a closed eyewall doesnt mean hes a hurricane. He still has to gain some wind speed.
Poll.
Will Ernesto undergo RI?
A. Yes
B. No
C. He already is
D. RI is unpredictable. Who knows.
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You can see why it was huge for Ernesto to reform underneath the strong convection. Not only does it take him further away from land, but it also takes him away from the shelf waters off Central America. Those waters are shallow and cannot store much heat energy.

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2281. Levi32
Edit: This is the new 8am advisory position (blue marker), largely extrapolated from the previous forecast most likely, but Ernesto is well NE of that marker.

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By looking at this link he appears to be pulling more NW. Any thoughts?


Link
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2279. LargoFl
.......................................WOW its south east florida's turn for the stormy weather this morning huh
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33375
Ernesto is small...and small systems intensify more rapidly then bigger ones...
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Can it go N or NE??
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but what does that spell for the bay islands of honduras????

Quoting weathermanwannabe:
On a positive note, he is far enough South that Caiman will probably be spared any significant impacts, other than surf erosion, from being in the line of fire from the NE quadrant.
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Quoting AussieStorm:


Circular with a diameter of 6 nautical miles. Pinhole eye???




they found a pine hole eye?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114062
Caiman is not out of the woods if this storm start pulling more N Caiman will be in for it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114062
Quoting Tazmanian:



yes a close eye wall has they call it


Circular with a diameter of 6 nautical miles. Pinhole eye???

Taz, your blocking my messages to you. I tried to reply to your wu-mail.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Indeed. That is what worries me. It will put him farther away from the shelf waters just off Central America which have much less heat stored. This puts him further out into the high TCHP. Shear looks to be abating as outflow is expanding in all quads.



Looks good right now as he has a nice CDO building.

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Quoting AussieStorm:


Ernesto has an eye????????



yes a close eye wall has they call it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114062
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On a positive note, he is far enough South that Caiman will probably be spared any significant impacts, other than surf erosion, from being in the line of fire from the NE quadrant.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 12:33Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 12:13:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°34'N 79°59'W (15.5667N 79.9833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 270 miles (434 km) to the SW (232°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,412m (4,633ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) to the WNW (291°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 170° at 55kts (From the S at ~ 63.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 4 nautical miles (5 statute miles) to the E (100°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 997mb (29.44 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,469m (4,820ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 6 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph) in the east quadrant at 12:05:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 40kts (~ 46.0mph) in the east quadrant at 12:14:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 24°C (75°F) which was observed 0 nautical miles to the SSW (211°) from the flight level center
Radar Signature: Good


Ernesto has an eye????????
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Yeah if you remember I said last Friday that once he gets into the NW Caribbean then it's game on. Well it appears to be game on now.

Ernesto better not be intensifying to fast now.Wouldn't want him making a run for the Gulf.
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2266. Levi32
Quoting washingtonian115:
So could it go more north than the forecast track by the NHC?.


In the short term yes, which matters a great deal for the Yucatan countries.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
It just fits right now XD.After struggling so much he finally found a good place for him.


Yeah if you remember I said last Friday that once he gets into the NW Caribbean then it's game on. Well it appears to be game on now.

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Quoting Levi32:


Technically the 6-hour heading is due north, but the center jumped so the actual forward motion has yet to be determined.
thats.crucial
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4018
Quoting HurricaneDevo:
Does anyone have the google earth link for recon?


GE kmz file.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
This part of the caribbean is known for rapidly intensifying cyclones..Wilma..Mitch..Not saying it'll happen in this case...
and keith
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Quoting Levi32:


VDM says Ernesto literally has gained zero longitude since the 06z NHC position. In reality it has probably been moving but the center has jumped and likely become vertically stacked a bit sooner than the models anticipated.


Indeed. That is what worries me. It will put him farther away from the shelf waters just off Central America which have much less heat stored. This puts him further out into the high TCHP. Shear looks to be abating as outflow is expanding in all quads.
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Very interested in the movement right now as he appears to be moving WNW or NW right now. Any word on this from the HH?
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Quoting allancalderini:
Unless he makes landfall in Honduras.


I doubt very much this will be a Honduras storm now!
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Quoting Levi32:


VDM says Ernesto literally has gained zero longitude since the 06z NHC position. In reality it has probably been moving but the center has jumped and likely become vertically stacked a bit sooner than the models anticipated.
So could it go more north than the forecast track by the NHC?.
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2257. Levi32
Quoting ILwthrfan:


What is his exact heading right now? Does he have any adjusted northward component to previous heading?


Technically the 6-hour heading is due north, but the center jumped so the actual forward motion has yet to be determined.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Nice! Im sure that one was for me:0)
It just fits right now XD.After struggling so much he finally found a good place for him.
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if this thing bombs into a formidable upper cat 1/ lower cat 2 today...will models shift at the 12/18z? ...or would it take till the 00z to ingest the new data??
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Quoting allancalderini:
Is he still moving west or west northwest now?


He's moving WNW now...possibly jumping even more north due to center relocation.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF is going with 55 knots for the 12Z update:

AL, 05, 2012080612, , BEST, 0, 156N, 801W, 55, 994, TS, 50, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 0,

yeah but wrong coordinates lol again

Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

So 65mph and a closed eyewall.....


soon to be hurricane Ernesto
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9591
2252. Levi32
Quoting MississippiWx:
Ernesto will be a hurricane today. I don't loosely throw around the "RI" phrase, but it's a good candidate for it.


VDM says Ernesto literally has gained zero longitude since the 06z NHC position. In reality it has probably been moving but the center has jumped and likely become vertically stacked a bit sooner than the models anticipated.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Is Ernesto finally singing "Good Day" by Ice cube?.


Nice! Im sure that one was for me:0)
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Quoting Levi32:
Dropsonde 997mb with 43kt ESE winds. Pressure is likely lower, but the VDM says 997mb with no extrapolation downward.


What is his exact heading right now? Does he have any adjusted northward component to previous heading?
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Good Morning Levi and everyone...
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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 12:33Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 12:13:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°34'N 79°59'W (15.5667N 79.9833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 270 miles (434 km) to the SW (232°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,412m (4,633ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) to the WNW (291°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 170° at 55kts (From the S at ~ 63.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 4 nautical miles (5 statute miles) to the E (100°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 997mb (29.44 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,469m (4,820ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 6 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph) in the east quadrant at 12:05:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 40kts (~ 46.0mph) in the east quadrant at 12:14:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 24°C (75°F) which was observed 0 nautical miles to the SSW (211°) from the flight level center
Radar Signature: Good
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2247. WxLogic
If Ernesto gains LAT and maintain a low forward speed than what it is at this point then we could be looking a new scenario unfolding.
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Quoting Levi32:
Dropsonde 997mb with 43kt ESE winds. Pressure is likely lower, but the VDM says 997mb with no extrapolation downward.


ATCF went with 994.
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Good Morning. Ernesto is finally starting to look much better this morning but he is so far South that I am confident in the current NHC track. Even if he blows up, and the models compensate and adjust a little to the North by tomorrow, I don't see how he would get pulled to the North into the Gulf of Mexico. Crossing the Yucatan will keep him weak on the other side and we he gets into the Bay of Campeche, if he is pulled a little further North, I think it would be remain a Mexico landfall after that. He is not going to get deep enough to feel the weakness IMHO.
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I betting he's about to bomb out...that closed eyewall does mean something
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Quoting Levi32:
Dropsonde 997mb with 43kt ESE winds. Pressure is likely lower, but the VDM says 997mb with no extrapolation downward.



its down to 994mb


AL, 05, 2012080612, , BEST, 0, 156N, 801W, 55, 994, TS,
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114062
This part of the caribbean is known for rapidly intensifying cyclones..Wilma..Mitch..Not saying it'll happen in this case...
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Hey Levi
Quoting Levi32:
Dropsonde 997mb with 43kt ESE winds. Pressure is likely lower, but the VDM says 997mb with no extrapolation downward.
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Ernesto will be a hurricane today. I don't loosely throw around the "RI" phrase, but it's a good candidate for it.
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
He has to gain at least 1 degree of latitude for his center to miss Honduras.
will be bad if he doesn`t start moving west-northwest soon Honduras could receive a ts just below hurricane strengh.
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2238. Levi32
Dropsonde 997mb with 43kt ESE winds. Pressure is likely lower, but the VDM says 997mb with no extrapolation downward.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF is going with 55 knots for the 12Z update:

AL, 05, 2012080612, , BEST, 0, 156N, 801W, 55, 994, TS, 50, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 0,



geting vary close too hurricane all soo he seem too have move a little N?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114062
Quoting allancalderini:
Is he still moving west or west northwest now?


I would say more like WNW-NW but I am heavily leaning more NW
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9591
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 12:33Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 12:13:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°34'N 79°59'W (15.5667N 79.9833W) B. Center Fix Location: 270 miles (434 km) to the SW (232°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,412m (4,633ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) to the WNW (291°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 170° at 55kts (From the S at ~ 63.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 4 nautical miles (5 statute miles) to the E (100°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 997mb (29.44 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,469m (4,820ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 6 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph) in the east quadrant at 12:05:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 40kts (~ 46.0mph) in the east quadrant at 12:14:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 24°C (75°F) which was observed 0 nautical miles to the SSW (211°) from the flight level center
Radar Signature: Good

So 65mph and a closed eyewall.....
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Vortex says he has a closed eyewall!!!
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ATCF is going with 55 knots for the 12Z update:

AL, 05, 2012080612, , BEST, 0, 156N, 801W, 55, 994, TS, 50, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 120, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ERNESTO, M,
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13277

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.