Ernesto disorganized; more fires, extreme heat for Oklahoma

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:25 PM GMT on August 05, 2012

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A disorganized Tropical Storm Ernesto continues to speed westward at 23 mph across the Caribbean. Ernesto has brought sporadic heavy rains to Jamaica today, and Kingston has picked up 0.51" of rain as of noon, and recorded top sustained winds of 22 mph. Ernesto looks very unhealthy on visible satellite loops, with its low-level circulation center a naked swirl exposed to view with almost no heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. However, the storm does have some rather far-flung spiral bands, and these bands are bringing occasional heavy downpours to Haiti, western Cuba, Jamaica, and the southwest Dominican Republic. This morning's flight by the Hurricane Hunters found that Ernesto had a very high central pressure of 1006 mb and top winds near 50 mph. The latest wind shear analysis from the SHIPS model shows moderate shear of 10 - 15 knots affecting the storm, but there must be some wind shear the satellites are not able to detect affecting Ernesto, given its disorganized appearance. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west, and this dry air is also interfering with Ernesto's organization.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image with 375 meter resolution taken of Ernesto by the new Suomi NPP satellite at 1:39 pm EDT August 4, 2012. At the time, Ernesto had a flare-up of intense thunderstorms, and had top winds of 60 mph. Image credit: University of Wisconsin Madison CIMSS.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's rapid forward speed of 23 mph has been part of the reason for its lack of intensification, but the storm is expected to slow down Monday and Tuesday in response to a trough of low pressure passing to the north. This slowing, in combination with low wind shear, a moister environment, and increasing heat energy in the ocean, may allow Ernesto to strengthen some before making landfall in Belize or Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday night. However, the storm will be passing very close to the north coast of Honduras, putting a portion of its circulation over land and limiting intensification potential. It is unlikely Ernesto will become a hurricane in the Caribbean; NHC is giving just a 19% chance that this will occur. The main threat from Ernesto will be heavy rains over Honduras, Belize, Mexico, and Jamaica. The track forecast for Ernesto has become a bit easier, since the storm's current disorganization and more southerly path make will make it more difficult for the storm to make a northwesterly turn into the Gulf of Mexico like the UKMET and GFDL models are predicting. A stronger Ernesto would have been more likely to turn northwest under the influence of a trough of low pressure passing to the north. If Ernesto survives its crossing of the Yucatan Peninsula, the potential exists for it to re-strengthen over the Bay of Campeche, and make a second landfall on Mexico's coast on Friday, between Tampico and Veracruz. It's pretty unlikely that Ernesto will hit the U.S.-- though Brownsville, Texas could see some rain from Ernesto's outer spiral bands on Friday, if the storm survives that long.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto, showing the exposed low-level center--a swirl due south of Jamaica--and only very limited heavy thunderstorm activity surrounding the center.

Tropical Storm Florence
Tropical Storm Florence continues to plow westward at 14 mph over the Eastern Atlantic, and is not a threat to any land areas for next five days. The SHIPS model is predicting a moderate 5 - 15 knots of wind shear for Florence Sunday and Monday, but the shear will increase to the high range as Florence encounters an upper-level trough of low pressure on Tuesday. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis shows that a large area of dry air lies to the north and west of Florence, and this dry air will likely cause problems for the storm. Ocean temperature are near 26 - 26.5°C, which is right at the threshold for where a tropical storm can typically exist. It is possible that Florence could pose a threat to Bermuda next weekend, if the storm survives that long. Both the GFS and ECMWF models dissipate Florence before then.

Historic heat wave in Oklahoma
A second day of destructive fires affected Oklahoma on Saturday, thanks to extreme heat and drought, low humidities, and strong winds in advance of an approaching cold front. At 3 pm CDT Saturday, Oklahoma City had a temperature of 107°, a humidity of 19%, and winds of 16 mph gusting to 22 mph. The Oklahoma fires have destroyed at least 125 homes. The high temperature in Oklahoma City on Saturday reached 109°, the 12th warmest temperature recorded in the city since records began in 1891. Friday's high of 113° tied for the warmest temperature in city history.


Figure 3. Highway 48 is covered in smoke as flames continue, Saturday, Aug 4, 2012, east of Drumright, OK. Image credit: Associated Press.

The only comparable Oklahoma heat wave: August 1936
The only heat wave in Oklahoma history that compares to the August 2012 heat wave occurred during the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936, the hottest summer in U.S. history. Oklahoma City experienced three days at 110° that summer, and a record streak of 22 straight days with a temperature of 100° or hotter. Those numbers are comparable to 2012's: three days at 110° or hotter, and a string of 18 consecutive days (so far) with temperatures of 100° or hotter. The weak cold front that passed though Oklahoma Saturday will bring temperatures about 10° cooler over the next few days, but high temperatures are still expected to approach 100° in Oklahoma City Sunday through Tuesday. It's worth noting that Oklahoma City has experienced only 11 days since 1890 with a high of 110° or greater. Three of those days were in 2011, three in 2012, and three in the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a new post on July's heat extremes in the U.S.


Figure 4. Most of Oklahoma has experienced nine consecutive days with highs of 100° or more, and many regions, including Oklahoma City, have had a streak of eighteen such days. Image credit: Oklahoma Mesonet.

Severe thunderstorm complex forces evacuation of Lollapalooza
A organized complex of severe thunderstorms developed over Eastern Iowa and Northern Illinois late Saturday afternoon, forming a dangerous bow echo that swept through Chicago, forcing the evacuation of the Lollapalooza music festival. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logged over 150 reports of wind damage from the storm, with five of the thunderstorms containing winds in excess of hurricane force (74 mph.) And just yesterday, my daughter was bemoaning her misfortune at not being able to get tickets to the show! The thunderstorm complex traveled about 300 miles from Eastern Iowa to Ohio, generating winds gust in excess of 58 mph along most of its path, meeting the definition of a derecho.


Figure 5. Radar image of the severe thunderstorm complex that spawned a dangerous bow echo over Chicago, which forced the evacuation of the Lollapalooza music festival.

Jeff Masters

IN THE EYE OF THE STORM (nanamac)
Storm clouds overwhelming Chicago
IN THE EYE OF THE STORM
IN THE EYE OF THE STORM (nanamac)
Sheets of rain & darkness!
IN THE EYE OF THE STORM
()
Storm damage (Bubbly)
Straight line winds during a severe thunderstorm left crumpled metal and splintered wood behind in Frytown, Iowa
Storm damage

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Ernesto is going to take over Chris in ACE soon.
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convection on the increase from the latest satellite.
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"But in today's society, I don't think there's any place that's free from idiots." Wisconsin state Rep. Mark Honadel.

So true.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
A slight glimmer of hope for the life of Ernesto is the increase of convection off to the South of its COC this afternoon. The atmosphere could be moistening up a bit. Still moving pretty quickly West. And if it stays weak its just gonna run into Central America and the point will be mute.
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Same fate for Florence

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
514. You do realize the title of this blog is 'Weather Underground'..?

Not 'Breaking News'
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24575
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Quoting DataNerd:
Wont be surprised to see NHC track shift much further south at next advisory.


Would equally not be surprised to see a downgrade to td.

They'll probably nudge the 3-5 day points southward some with a landfall near Tampico, but there's no reason to nudge the whole track significantly southward and there is no reason to downgrade to a TD when Ernesto is producing 50 mph winds.
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
Ernesto has made it through the worst. Expect him to improve with organization over time. The only thing to stop him now is running into land.
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Quoting DataNerd:
Wont be surprised to see NHC track shift much further south at next advisory.


Would equally not be surprised to see a downgrade to td.


Why would the downward shift be necessary..?

Seems the ECMWF has nailed the track so far.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24575
Quoting reedzone:


What??? Where's the wind shear, please Taz, point out the devestating wind shear that is apparently affecting Ernesto..




That shear map has not updated since 10 p.m. last night EST; look at the time on the bottom.
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Quoting LargoFl:
..............see..all the way into NEXT friday...a long wait and see week ahead
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looks like convection is building over the center. Ernesto is like a roller coaster up and down.
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Wont be surprised to see NHC track shift much further south at next advisory.


Would equally not be surprised to see a downgrade to td.
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But that is shrinking though.
Member Since: June 4, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 767



Covering his coc again ?
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Lots of dry air still...
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
357 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF WATERTOWN...

* UNTIL 700 PM EDT

* AT 344 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
RAIN FALLING AT THE RATE OF TWO INCHES PER HOUR OVER THE
WARNED AREA...WHICH INCLUDES WATERTOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.



LAT...LON 4410 7589 4392 7589 4392 7614 4410 7614



TJP
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Ernesto is moving W or 273 degrees at 20mph for the last 6 hours. The trend has been for slowing down and moving toward the WNW which is 281 degrees. The 12 hour average has ernesto moving W or 271 degrees at 22mph.
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Looks like we have an imposter patrap! You guys know what to do then!
Member Since: June 4, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 767
Good synopsis for those of us who just want the "short version" on Ernesto. Music reminded me of a Nintendo game - Street Fighter?? Until the '80s lyrics kicked in. 
Quoting ilovehurricanes13:

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..................................NHC 72 hours
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GOES-E satellite loop reveals increasing convection almost ontop of the COC, let's see if this leads to anything

If Ernesto becomes better organized, it will do so within the next 6-8 hours.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24575
Quoting reedzone:


Oh look, Florence threatening the East Coast. It's not impossible when you look at the ridging pattern that we've been in since April. The ridge has and probably will continue to stay strong for another month until we get stronger troughs to erode/weaken it. Florence has a chance to regenerate and move a little too close to the East Coast, perhaps threatening a landfall. (backed up by some GFS ensembles and NOGAPS) Too early to really tell right now, just needs to be monitored.


Hi A. Reed- Hope all is well.

It's not so much Florence- but the future paths of Gordon and Helene (quite possibly Isaac) that may evolve with that AB high sitting out there.
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501. JLPR2
Quoting islander101010:
still.a.cyclone..vis.loop


Yep, disorganized but pretty much still alive and it's headed for bath water.

RAMSDIS 1km VIS Floater
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


Largo, that is a troll, not the real Pat

got some really sick people on this blog
..ok ty
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ernesto gaining strength located near 15.5N 78.1W convection blowing up near the LLCOC
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Sea breeze collision is happening right over my house.
lot of thunder with it huh
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Wow! There is no windshear over ernesto lol its trade winds!! Think again its not rip!!!
Member Since: June 4, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 767
We're beating 2011.

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Quoting LargoFl:
..sorry Pat..beautiful coat on that pup


Largo, that is a troll, not the real Pat

got some really sick people on this blog
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Sea breeze collision is happening right over my house.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24575
LETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012

...ERNESTO REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 77.9W
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA CASTILLA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY
OR MONDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PASS SOUTH OF JAMAICA THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOVE NORTH OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN GRAND CAYMAN TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AND IN THE WATCH AREA
ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS BY LATE MONDAY. SOME SQUALLS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTH COAST OF HAITI TODAY.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA AS ERNESTO MOVES BY THE
ISLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...ARE
POSSIBLE OVER HAITI TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
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Ernesto has slowed to 20mph in the last 6 hours. This probably wont reflect until the next couple of NHC updates. The slowing trend has begun and some more organization is possible before landfall.
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Quoting PatrapFag:
One of Nola pups passed away.

Nola Roux
2009-2012
..sorry Pat..beautiful coat on that pup
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Watch #564
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TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
1500 UTC SUN AUG 05 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 35.6W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 20SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 35.6W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 35.0W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.7N 37.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.9N 40.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.4N 43.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.0N 46.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.5N 53.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 21.5N 59.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 24.0N 64.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 35.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Quoting windshear1993:
hey everyone whats going on in tropics


Currently it appears that Ernesto may be trying to fire some storms of the COC or whats left of it. We are also monitoring Florence which has lost most of its convection. Other than that currently there are a couple of tropical waves that may start coming off of Africa in the next week or two. BTW my name is Matt and I am currently interning at NHC. Lol (just so you know who your talking to)
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Quoting DataNerd:
180+ hr nogaps same thing as GFS


So there's something to this forecast.


Oh look, Florence threatening the East Coast. It's not impossible when you look at the ridging pattern that we've been in since April. The ridge has and probably will continue to stay strong for another month until we get stronger troughs to erode/weaken it. Florence has a chance to regenerate and move a little too close to the East Coast, perhaps threatening a landfall. (backed up by some GFS ensembles and NOGAPS) Too early to really tell right now, just needs to be monitored.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Here is the wave now in Central Africa that GFS has developing.





Looks like it already has a low attached to it.
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Severe Weather and Flash Flooding Possible on Sunday for much of the Northeast

An advancing cold front will provide the focus for severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening as it crosses the Northeast and Midwest. The greatest potential for damaging winds will be across northern and western New York State. Flash flooding will also be possible across eastern New York and western New England as slow moving thunderstorms have the potential to dump very heavy rain.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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