Ernesto disorganized; more fires, extreme heat for Oklahoma

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:25 PM GMT on August 05, 2012

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A disorganized Tropical Storm Ernesto continues to speed westward at 23 mph across the Caribbean. Ernesto has brought sporadic heavy rains to Jamaica today, and Kingston has picked up 0.51" of rain as of noon, and recorded top sustained winds of 22 mph. Ernesto looks very unhealthy on visible satellite loops, with its low-level circulation center a naked swirl exposed to view with almost no heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. However, the storm does have some rather far-flung spiral bands, and these bands are bringing occasional heavy downpours to Haiti, western Cuba, Jamaica, and the southwest Dominican Republic. This morning's flight by the Hurricane Hunters found that Ernesto had a very high central pressure of 1006 mb and top winds near 50 mph. The latest wind shear analysis from the SHIPS model shows moderate shear of 10 - 15 knots affecting the storm, but there must be some wind shear the satellites are not able to detect affecting Ernesto, given its disorganized appearance. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west, and this dry air is also interfering with Ernesto's organization.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image with 375 meter resolution taken of Ernesto by the new Suomi NPP satellite at 1:39 pm EDT August 4, 2012. At the time, Ernesto had a flare-up of intense thunderstorms, and had top winds of 60 mph. Image credit: University of Wisconsin Madison CIMSS.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's rapid forward speed of 23 mph has been part of the reason for its lack of intensification, but the storm is expected to slow down Monday and Tuesday in response to a trough of low pressure passing to the north. This slowing, in combination with low wind shear, a moister environment, and increasing heat energy in the ocean, may allow Ernesto to strengthen some before making landfall in Belize or Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday night. However, the storm will be passing very close to the north coast of Honduras, putting a portion of its circulation over land and limiting intensification potential. It is unlikely Ernesto will become a hurricane in the Caribbean; NHC is giving just a 19% chance that this will occur. The main threat from Ernesto will be heavy rains over Honduras, Belize, Mexico, and Jamaica. The track forecast for Ernesto has become a bit easier, since the storm's current disorganization and more southerly path make will make it more difficult for the storm to make a northwesterly turn into the Gulf of Mexico like the UKMET and GFDL models are predicting. A stronger Ernesto would have been more likely to turn northwest under the influence of a trough of low pressure passing to the north. If Ernesto survives its crossing of the Yucatan Peninsula, the potential exists for it to re-strengthen over the Bay of Campeche, and make a second landfall on Mexico's coast on Friday, between Tampico and Veracruz. It's pretty unlikely that Ernesto will hit the U.S.-- though Brownsville, Texas could see some rain from Ernesto's outer spiral bands on Friday, if the storm survives that long.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto, showing the exposed low-level center--a swirl due south of Jamaica--and only very limited heavy thunderstorm activity surrounding the center.

Tropical Storm Florence
Tropical Storm Florence continues to plow westward at 14 mph over the Eastern Atlantic, and is not a threat to any land areas for next five days. The SHIPS model is predicting a moderate 5 - 15 knots of wind shear for Florence Sunday and Monday, but the shear will increase to the high range as Florence encounters an upper-level trough of low pressure on Tuesday. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis shows that a large area of dry air lies to the north and west of Florence, and this dry air will likely cause problems for the storm. Ocean temperature are near 26 - 26.5°C, which is right at the threshold for where a tropical storm can typically exist. It is possible that Florence could pose a threat to Bermuda next weekend, if the storm survives that long. Both the GFS and ECMWF models dissipate Florence before then.

Historic heat wave in Oklahoma
A second day of destructive fires affected Oklahoma on Saturday, thanks to extreme heat and drought, low humidities, and strong winds in advance of an approaching cold front. At 3 pm CDT Saturday, Oklahoma City had a temperature of 107°, a humidity of 19%, and winds of 16 mph gusting to 22 mph. The Oklahoma fires have destroyed at least 125 homes. The high temperature in Oklahoma City on Saturday reached 109°, the 12th warmest temperature recorded in the city since records began in 1891. Friday's high of 113° tied for the warmest temperature in city history.


Figure 3. Highway 48 is covered in smoke as flames continue, Saturday, Aug 4, 2012, east of Drumright, OK. Image credit: Associated Press.

The only comparable Oklahoma heat wave: August 1936
The only heat wave in Oklahoma history that compares to the August 2012 heat wave occurred during the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936, the hottest summer in U.S. history. Oklahoma City experienced three days at 110° that summer, and a record streak of 22 straight days with a temperature of 100° or hotter. Those numbers are comparable to 2012's: three days at 110° or hotter, and a string of 18 consecutive days (so far) with temperatures of 100° or hotter. The weak cold front that passed though Oklahoma Saturday will bring temperatures about 10° cooler over the next few days, but high temperatures are still expected to approach 100° in Oklahoma City Sunday through Tuesday. It's worth noting that Oklahoma City has experienced only 11 days since 1890 with a high of 110° or greater. Three of those days were in 2011, three in 2012, and three in the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a new post on July's heat extremes in the U.S.


Figure 4. Most of Oklahoma has experienced nine consecutive days with highs of 100° or more, and many regions, including Oklahoma City, have had a streak of eighteen such days. Image credit: Oklahoma Mesonet.

Severe thunderstorm complex forces evacuation of Lollapalooza
A organized complex of severe thunderstorms developed over Eastern Iowa and Northern Illinois late Saturday afternoon, forming a dangerous bow echo that swept through Chicago, forcing the evacuation of the Lollapalooza music festival. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logged over 150 reports of wind damage from the storm, with five of the thunderstorms containing winds in excess of hurricane force (74 mph.) And just yesterday, my daughter was bemoaning her misfortune at not being able to get tickets to the show! The thunderstorm complex traveled about 300 miles from Eastern Iowa to Ohio, generating winds gust in excess of 58 mph along most of its path, meeting the definition of a derecho.


Figure 5. Radar image of the severe thunderstorm complex that spawned a dangerous bow echo over Chicago, which forced the evacuation of the Lollapalooza music festival.

Jeff Masters

IN THE EYE OF THE STORM (nanamac)
Storm clouds overwhelming Chicago
IN THE EYE OF THE STORM
IN THE EYE OF THE STORM (nanamac)
Sheets of rain & darkness!
IN THE EYE OF THE STORM
()
Storm damage (Bubbly)
Straight line winds during a severe thunderstorm left crumpled metal and splintered wood behind in Frytown, Iowa
Storm damage

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Speed and track it's going.....it may never make it to the GOM.
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Quoting DubiousCane2012:


Am not, =(.

Forget it, dude. Accuse me of whomever you'd like.

I did not come here to engage in quarrels with you.

I came here to discuss the tropics, nothing.

I am moving on!

Sigh!

I will say this, though.

Whoever administrators this site needs to tell you to stop harassing new bloggers. That's not cool at all, man.


even if its not him... I just lo-lled really hard.

Ernie is tasting some honey off of the cone that he's been fighting with. Lower shear, warmer water.
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Quoting DubiousCane2012:
How can I report harassment on here?

Who polices this blog?

No blogger is gonna accuse me of being some woman.


The "ignore" feature works well.
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where is evere one too night
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Quoting PlazaRed:

Yes as usual, we have got it clocked.
There's another one behind that as well. Maybe just maybe this Cape Verde season might just be an eye opener in more ways that the human kind. Hope you all keep out of their sights, Cryptically!
I do.I'm rather surprised.As our cape verrde season was suppose to be rather dead..
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Possibly something like this.


That would be nice... or maybe a Hurricane Igor look alike too... it can get as strong as it wants to as long as it stays a fish storm
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Quoting yoboi:
taz is a great troll hunter he bagged atleast 5 so far this season...



i think i baged more then 5 this season lol
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Quoting DubiousCane2012:


Am not, =(.

Forget it, dude. Accuse me of whomever you'd like.

I did not come here to engage in quarrels with you.

I came here to discuss the tropics, nothing else.

I am moving on!

Sigh!

I will say this, though.

Whoever administrators this site needs to tell you to stop harassing new bloggers. That's not cool at all, man.




i got my eye on you
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Yep.Monster wave in central Africa could come off and develop rather immediately according to the models.

Yes as usual, we have got it clocked.
There's another one behind that as well. Maybe just maybe this Cape Verde season might just be an eye opener in more ways that the human kind. Hope you all keep out of their sights, Cryptically!
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Quoting tea3781:
Does anybody think the center could reform further to the north were the majority of the convection is?


The majority of the convection is not further north. It is right over the center.

The NHC track for 5 pm Sunday is right on target...for now.
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921. yoboi
taz is a great troll hunter he bagged atleast 5 so far this season...
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2323
.........................unless something changes, its a mexican storm
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Taz, I think you got it right BRO.




i cant what to see what recon finds
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Possibly something like this.

That would be lovely.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Very close call.



two lows are coming out of africa at the moment
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Does anybody think the center could reform further to the north were the majority of the convection is?
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ime: 23:10:30Z
Coordinates: 16.5167N 75.0833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 392.3 mb (~ 11.58 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 7,722 meters (~ 25,335 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 401 meters (~ 1,316 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 60° at 14 knots (From the ENE at ~ 16.1 mph)
Air Temp: -15.0°C* (~ 5.0°F*)
Dew Pt: -15.0°C* (~ 5.0°F*)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 15 knots (~ 17.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 34 knots (~ 39.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5998
Taz, I think you got it right BRO.
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Quoting PlazaRed:


Nice to see you have the Green mantle on in your new avatar for the Cape Verde, ( Green Cape ) season.
how simply becoming!
I think that Florence will not be long before she is followed?
Yep.Monster wave in central Africa could come off and develop rather immediately according to the models.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Thanks Taz. How did you know?




jfv all was like puting the year at the end of his name like 2012


if DubiousCane2012 is not jfv then for give me but he sould change his name too some in us and not put the year at the end or many will start thinking he is jfv
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Quoting Tazmanian:



welcome doing well


How did you sniff him out before he even posted on here?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It got closer...



Possibly something like this.

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Quoting sar2401:


Indeed. The 5 pm model ensemble seems to have shifted really far to south and now wants to take Ernesto into Belize, then into Guatemala. If this occurs, Ernesto is a dead duck. The current five day forecast track is completely disconnected from the models. Since I've thought this was Belize storm from the begining, I'm sticking with the ensemble. :)


Me and you both. For some reason have kept seeing it as Belize storm too. Will see pretty soon I suppose! I've not had much doubt that it would re-stengthen, but just kept seeing it going that way.

As for Yucatan, I actually had always wondered why storms made it across there fine to get back into it in the GOM...for some reason have always had it in my mind it was a mountainous region.
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5August12pmGMT's 14.9n73.9w-14.8n76.1w was re-evaluated&altered
5August06pmGMT's 15.1n73.9w-15.1n76.1w-15.2n77.9w are now the most recent positions
(Vectors and straightline projections have been corrected from those on the previous mapping)
Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalStormErnesto for 5August6pmGMT:
MinimumPressure stayed at 1006millibars
MaxSusWinds held at 45knots(52mph)83km/h
Its vector changed from 270.3*West@24.5mph(39.4km/h) to 273.5*West@20.1mph(32.3km/h)

CUK-CayeCaulker :: MDB-Dangriga :: PEU-PuertoLempira :: WSP-Waspam :: PUZ-PuertoCabezas

The Easternmost unlabeled dot marks Ernesto's position on its 30th hour as a TropicalStorm
The Easternmost dot on the longest line is TS.Ernesto's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TS.Ernesto's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach (within 18miles or 29 kilometres) to a coastline
5August12amGMT: TS.Ernesto had been headed for passage over CayeCaulker (CUK)
5August6amGMT: TS.Ernesto had been headed for passage over LagunaBismuna (southernWSPdumbbell)
5August12pmGMT: TS.Ernesto was heading for passage over CaboViejoTalaSulamasNaturalReserve (northernWSPdumbell)
5August6pmGMT: TS.Ernesto was heading for passage over Cauquira,Honduras -- where HurricaneMitch made landfall -- in ~13&1/2.hours from now (when this comment was posted)

Copy&paste eyw, ctm-18.883n87.642w, cuk-17.75n88.024w, mdb-17.23n88.304w, wsp-14.87n83.274w, wsp-14.95n83.222w, puz-14.32n82.6w, pva-13.323n81.391w-13.213n81.384w, stx, 13.8n64.8w-13.9n66.4w, 13.9n66.4w-14.2n67.9w, 14.2n67.9w-14.6n69.3w, 14.6n69.3w-15.1n71.7w, 15.1n71.7w-15.1n73.9w, 15.1n73.9w-15.1n76.1w, 15.1n76.1w-15.2n77.9w, 15.1n76.1w-15.43n83.84w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger-scale map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison.
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Quoting Levi32:
Cirrus coming in from the west in the NW part of this loop show that there is still some shear to deal with at the moment that could keep Ernesto southeast-weighted for now, though that shear should be lightening with time.



Ernesto's getting that center covered. He's got to clothe that naked swirl.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3032
Quoting washingtonian115:
I see potential Isaac by the cape verde islands :).Please be a beautiful non destructive storm.Like in 2000.


Nice to see you have the Green mantle on in your new avatar for the Cape Verde, ( Green Cape ) season.
how simply becoming!
I think that Florence will not be long before she is followed?
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Isaac starting to materialize by the cape verde islands.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Thanks Taz. How did you know?



welcome doing well
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Quoting Doppler22:

where can we watch the mars rover thing??? Itll b on tv??


NASA TV. Link
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It got closer...

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31314
Quoting Tazmanian:
looks like jfv by pass other ban hes now no has DubiousCane2012


Thanks Taz. How did you know?
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894. yoboi
taz ya sniffed em out quick this time..
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2323
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Very close call.



Looks a lot closer at 372 hr.
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I based my guess on rgb floater @ the NHC. I put up the LAT.&Long. lines and it seem to me the llc was still moving west around 15n and it looked like some type of circulation just to the se of the llc. Now the coast of Honduras is at 16n., we should see soon enough when recon gets there. So basically just guessed by satellite obs.
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(changed my mind)
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looks like jfv by pass other ban hes now no has DubiousCane2012
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Quoting tennisgirl08:


NASA website - www.nasa.gov
Doppler,,and all,,,,also NASA TV, available on most cable outlets,,begins coverage at 10p cdt.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:



The 12z had it a little more closer.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13909
Quoting ncstorm:


I wouldnt hold the 18z and 00z runs with much merit..the 06z and 12z runs are the better runs


Ncstorm the 00z and 12z runs are the better runs
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.