Ernesto disorganized; more fires, extreme heat for Oklahoma

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:25 PM GMT on August 05, 2012

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A disorganized Tropical Storm Ernesto continues to speed westward at 23 mph across the Caribbean. Ernesto has brought sporadic heavy rains to Jamaica today, and Kingston has picked up 0.51" of rain as of noon, and recorded top sustained winds of 22 mph. Ernesto looks very unhealthy on visible satellite loops, with its low-level circulation center a naked swirl exposed to view with almost no heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. However, the storm does have some rather far-flung spiral bands, and these bands are bringing occasional heavy downpours to Haiti, western Cuba, Jamaica, and the southwest Dominican Republic. This morning's flight by the Hurricane Hunters found that Ernesto had a very high central pressure of 1006 mb and top winds near 50 mph. The latest wind shear analysis from the SHIPS model shows moderate shear of 10 - 15 knots affecting the storm, but there must be some wind shear the satellites are not able to detect affecting Ernesto, given its disorganized appearance. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west, and this dry air is also interfering with Ernesto's organization.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image with 375 meter resolution taken of Ernesto by the new Suomi NPP satellite at 1:39 pm EDT August 4, 2012. At the time, Ernesto had a flare-up of intense thunderstorms, and had top winds of 60 mph. Image credit: University of Wisconsin Madison CIMSS.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's rapid forward speed of 23 mph has been part of the reason for its lack of intensification, but the storm is expected to slow down Monday and Tuesday in response to a trough of low pressure passing to the north. This slowing, in combination with low wind shear, a moister environment, and increasing heat energy in the ocean, may allow Ernesto to strengthen some before making landfall in Belize or Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday night. However, the storm will be passing very close to the north coast of Honduras, putting a portion of its circulation over land and limiting intensification potential. It is unlikely Ernesto will become a hurricane in the Caribbean; NHC is giving just a 19% chance that this will occur. The main threat from Ernesto will be heavy rains over Honduras, Belize, Mexico, and Jamaica. The track forecast for Ernesto has become a bit easier, since the storm's current disorganization and more southerly path make will make it more difficult for the storm to make a northwesterly turn into the Gulf of Mexico like the UKMET and GFDL models are predicting. A stronger Ernesto would have been more likely to turn northwest under the influence of a trough of low pressure passing to the north. If Ernesto survives its crossing of the Yucatan Peninsula, the potential exists for it to re-strengthen over the Bay of Campeche, and make a second landfall on Mexico's coast on Friday, between Tampico and Veracruz. It's pretty unlikely that Ernesto will hit the U.S.-- though Brownsville, Texas could see some rain from Ernesto's outer spiral bands on Friday, if the storm survives that long.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto, showing the exposed low-level center--a swirl due south of Jamaica--and only very limited heavy thunderstorm activity surrounding the center.

Tropical Storm Florence
Tropical Storm Florence continues to plow westward at 14 mph over the Eastern Atlantic, and is not a threat to any land areas for next five days. The SHIPS model is predicting a moderate 5 - 15 knots of wind shear for Florence Sunday and Monday, but the shear will increase to the high range as Florence encounters an upper-level trough of low pressure on Tuesday. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis shows that a large area of dry air lies to the north and west of Florence, and this dry air will likely cause problems for the storm. Ocean temperature are near 26 - 26.5°C, which is right at the threshold for where a tropical storm can typically exist. It is possible that Florence could pose a threat to Bermuda next weekend, if the storm survives that long. Both the GFS and ECMWF models dissipate Florence before then.

Historic heat wave in Oklahoma
A second day of destructive fires affected Oklahoma on Saturday, thanks to extreme heat and drought, low humidities, and strong winds in advance of an approaching cold front. At 3 pm CDT Saturday, Oklahoma City had a temperature of 107°, a humidity of 19%, and winds of 16 mph gusting to 22 mph. The Oklahoma fires have destroyed at least 125 homes. The high temperature in Oklahoma City on Saturday reached 109°, the 12th warmest temperature recorded in the city since records began in 1891. Friday's high of 113° tied for the warmest temperature in city history.


Figure 3. Highway 48 is covered in smoke as flames continue, Saturday, Aug 4, 2012, east of Drumright, OK. Image credit: Associated Press.

The only comparable Oklahoma heat wave: August 1936
The only heat wave in Oklahoma history that compares to the August 2012 heat wave occurred during the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936, the hottest summer in U.S. history. Oklahoma City experienced three days at 110° that summer, and a record streak of 22 straight days with a temperature of 100° or hotter. Those numbers are comparable to 2012's: three days at 110° or hotter, and a string of 18 consecutive days (so far) with temperatures of 100° or hotter. The weak cold front that passed though Oklahoma Saturday will bring temperatures about 10° cooler over the next few days, but high temperatures are still expected to approach 100° in Oklahoma City Sunday through Tuesday. It's worth noting that Oklahoma City has experienced only 11 days since 1890 with a high of 110° or greater. Three of those days were in 2011, three in 2012, and three in the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a new post on July's heat extremes in the U.S.


Figure 4. Most of Oklahoma has experienced nine consecutive days with highs of 100° or more, and many regions, including Oklahoma City, have had a streak of eighteen such days. Image credit: Oklahoma Mesonet.

Severe thunderstorm complex forces evacuation of Lollapalooza
A organized complex of severe thunderstorms developed over Eastern Iowa and Northern Illinois late Saturday afternoon, forming a dangerous bow echo that swept through Chicago, forcing the evacuation of the Lollapalooza music festival. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logged over 150 reports of wind damage from the storm, with five of the thunderstorms containing winds in excess of hurricane force (74 mph.) And just yesterday, my daughter was bemoaning her misfortune at not being able to get tickets to the show! The thunderstorm complex traveled about 300 miles from Eastern Iowa to Ohio, generating winds gust in excess of 58 mph along most of its path, meeting the definition of a derecho.


Figure 5. Radar image of the severe thunderstorm complex that spawned a dangerous bow echo over Chicago, which forced the evacuation of the Lollapalooza music festival.

Jeff Masters

IN THE EYE OF THE STORM (nanamac)
Storm clouds overwhelming Chicago
IN THE EYE OF THE STORM
IN THE EYE OF THE STORM (nanamac)
Sheets of rain & darkness!
IN THE EYE OF THE STORM
()
Storm damage (Bubbly)
Straight line winds during a severe thunderstorm left crumpled metal and splintered wood behind in Frytown, Iowa
Storm damage

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Quoting Gorty:


Unlike other people, I will make my own judgement as to whether he is jfv or not and right now, I do not know.



ok when you do PM me and yet me no
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115256
Sure would be nice to get something out of this likely the only storm to come by us this year
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Quoting DubiousCane2012:


It does; thank you. I just ignored him. It's the little red feature button of to the northeast f the screen, right?


i know i know dont quuote him but lol
if he is janny he is playing it real well..i dont know if he is or not definitively
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Everyone would have to Agree that Ernesto has been THUS far very complicated to forecast
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Quoting DubiousCane2012:


It does; thank you. I just ignored him. It's the little red feature button of to the northeast f the screen, right?



no that the report tool your not vary smart
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115256
Quoting washingtonian115:
I do.I'm rather surprised.As our cape verde season was suppose to be rather dead..

Ministry of misinformation!
Controls what people want to see and hear not what is really probably going to happen.
Over in the Americas you lock onto the canes and waves! Don't be misled by models, there aren't models for what might happen in the next few years.
Just look at the Arctic melt thing. Supposed to take another 50 years to get to where its isnt today!
Them waves have got a lot of potential, given the right conditions, throw in enough of them into the Atlantic and you probably are going to get a major problem!
PS. Very becoming shade of Green!
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977. Gorty
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Oh no, that is certainly JFV. Theres no point in ignoring him anymore.. He just makes a new account a day later, so I am not going to bother.


Unlike other people, I will make my own judgement as to whether he is jfv or not and right now, I do not know.
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Very Intresting , if these winds are indeed not rain contaminated the windfield has expanded further to the NE
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I think Ernesto has slowed significantly , its in the area where storms slow or stall!
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Ummm if Ernesto is stronger than what he looks like on vis then I will shoot myself in the foot(that's not a promise though).
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


About 200 miles



i wish they fly faster
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115256
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Quoting tennisgirl08:


How close are the HHs?
About Approx 200 Miles from center
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Oh no, that is certainly JFV. Theres no point in ignoring him anymore.. He just makes a new account a day later, so I am not going to bother.


i dont bother to ignore anyone...
There are really only 2 trolls and one is quite tame on the blog
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Quoting PlazaRed:

Yes as usual, we have got it clocked.
There's another one behind that as well. Maybe just maybe this Cape Verde season might just be an eye opener in more ways that the human kind. Hope you all keep out of their sights, Cryptically!


The question is in what phase will be the NAO in the Second half of August and early september? Negative like the trend is right now or positive and the storm trend to recurve
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2159
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


CONUS, a technical term used by the U.S. Department of Defense and General Services Administration, has been defined both as the continental United States, and as the 48 contiguous states.[12][13] The District of Columbia is not always specifically mentioned as being part of CONUS.[13]
OCONUS is derived from CONUS with O for outside added, thus referring to Outside of Contiguous United States (OCONUS).[12][14]

Ok thanks. I need to gain some knowledge
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:


How far is that from the center?


About 200 miles
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:


If you are not JFV, then why are acting so defensive?


Oh no, that is certainly JFV. Theres no point in ignoring him anymore.. He just makes a new account a day later, so I am not going to bother.
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Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 5th day of the month at 23:18Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number: 05
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 06

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Sunday, 23:16Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 16.5N 75.6W
Location: 130 miles (209 km) to the SE (143°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
Turbulence: Light
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 7,320 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 150° at 20 knots (From the SSE at ~ 23.0 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -15°C
Flight Level Dew Point: -15°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,580 geopotential meters

Remarks Section...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 39 knots (~ 44.9mph)

I can almost bet they will find a 60-65mph storm this time!
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Quoting MississippiWx:
I have hope that one day we will all stop acknowledging that attention seeker. Just flag, ignore, move on. We have recon heading into Ernesto. No need to sift through Janiel garbage when we have an active storm.


How close are the HHs?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

And the rain contamination begins.


NO 50 mphs 200 miles out! gon be a hurricane!
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ok I'm back it was a good swim
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12140
Recon finding 50 Mph Surface winds
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Time: 23:20:30Z
Coordinates: 16.5N 76.0333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 392.3 mb (~ 11.58 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 7,724 meters (~ 25,341 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 402 meters (~ 1,319 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 146° at 14 knots (From the SE/SSE at ~ 16.1 mph)
Air Temp: -15.5°C* (~ 4.1°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 17 knots (~ 19.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 45 knots (~ 51.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 21 mm/hr (~ 0.83 in/hr)


How far is that from the center?
Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 533
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Time: 23:20:30Z
Coordinates: 16.5N 76.0333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 392.3 mb (~ 11.58 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 7,724 meters (~ 25,341 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 402 meters (~ 1,319 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 146 at 14 knots (From the SE/SSE at ~ 16.1 mph)
Air Temp: -15.5C* (~ 4.1F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 17 knots (~ 19.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 45 knots (~ 51.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 21 mm/hr (~ 0.83 in/hr)


Well... I pretty much figured they would find those winds...

Never mind they are contaminated.
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Quoting SaladTosser:
New and looking to learn. Just wondering what does CONUS stands for??


CONUS, a technical term used by the U.S. Department of Defense and General Services Administration, has been defined both as the continental United States, and as the 48 contiguous states.[12][13]
The District of Columbia is not always specifically mentioned as being part of CONUS.[13]

OCONUS is derived from CONUS with O for outside added, thus referring to Outside of Contiguous United States (OCONUS).[12][14]
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Quoting MississippiWx:
I have hope that one day we will all stop acknowledging that attention seeker. Just flag, ignore, move on. We have recon heading into Ernesto. No need to sift through Janiel garbage when we have an active storm.




good point
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115256
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Time: 23:20:30Z
Coordinates: 16.5N 76.0333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 392.3 mb (~ 11.58 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 7,724 meters (~ 25,341 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 402 meters (~ 1,319 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 146° at 14 knots (From the SE/SSE at ~ 16.1 mph)
Air Temp: -15.5°C* (~ 4.1°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 17 knots (~ 19.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 45 knots (~ 51.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 21 mm/hr (~ 0.83 in/hr)

And the rain contamination begins.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32253
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Don't let him trick you. Just ignore him.


For some reason, my ignore button does not work.
Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 533
I have hope that one day we will all stop acknowledging that attention seeker. Just flag, ignore, move on. We have recon heading into Ernesto. No need to sift through Janiel garbage when we have an active storm.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10282
Time: 23:20:30Z
Coordinates: 16.5N 76.0333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 392.3 mb (~ 11.58 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 7,724 meters (~ 25,341 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 402 meters (~ 1,319 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 146° at 14 knots (From the SE/SSE at ~ 16.1 mph)
Air Temp: -15.5°C* (~ 4.1°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 17 knots (~ 19.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 45 knots (~ 51.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 21 mm/hr (~ 0.83 in/hr)
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Quoting pipelines:

Scared to post because you might accuse them of being jfv lol



LOL your funny
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115256
Quoting Tazmanian:
where is evere one too night

Scared to post because you might accuse them of being jfv lol
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Quoting Tazmanian:



welcome too the blogs i hop you learn a lot form here


i think conus stan for USA or some in


CONUS - CONtinental United States
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Quoting tennisgirl08:


ROFLMAO!! This is hilarious. Sorry...




i can be funny some times lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115256
Quoting SaladTosser:
New and looking to learn. Just wondering what does CONUS stands for??

CONtiguous United States.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32253
Quoting Tazmanian:




i got my eye on you


ROFLMAO!! This is hilarious. Sorry...
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Quoting SaladTosser:
New and looking to learn. Just wondering what does CONUS stands for??



welcome too the blogs i hop you learn a lot form here


i think conus stan for USA or some in
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115256
......................Gee that must be one very strong cold front..just look at that frontal boundry
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Quoting SaladTosser:
New and looking to learn. Just wondering what does CONUS stands for??


Continental United States.
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:


If you are not JFV, then why are acting so defensive?

Don't let him trick you. Just ignore him.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32253
It already slowed down though
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New and looking to learn. Just wondering what does CONUS stands for??
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Quoting Doppler22:

That would be nice... or maybe a Hurricane Igor look alike too... it can get as strong as it wants to as long as it stays a fish storm


Like Ophelia of last year. She was beautiful. Don't want it to get close enough to cause massive beach erosion like Bill did though.

I think Bill passed close enough to lightly brush Cape Cod.
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Quoting DubiousCane2012:


Am not, =(.

Forget it, dude. Accuse me of whomever you'd like.

I did not come here to engage in quarrels with you.

I came here to discuss the tropics, nothing else.

I am moving on!

Sigh!

I will say this, though.

Whoever administrators this site needs to tell you to stop harassing new bloggers. That's not cool at all, man.


If you are not JFV, then why are acting so defensive?
Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 533
Quoting yoboi:
taz is a great troll hunter he bagged atleast 5 so far this season...

LMAO!!! So funny how you put that
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Speed and track it's going.....it may never make it to the GOM.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.