Ernesto disorganized; more fires, extreme heat for Oklahoma

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:25 PM GMT on August 05, 2012

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A disorganized Tropical Storm Ernesto continues to speed westward at 23 mph across the Caribbean. Ernesto has brought sporadic heavy rains to Jamaica today, and Kingston has picked up 0.51" of rain as of noon, and recorded top sustained winds of 22 mph. Ernesto looks very unhealthy on visible satellite loops, with its low-level circulation center a naked swirl exposed to view with almost no heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. However, the storm does have some rather far-flung spiral bands, and these bands are bringing occasional heavy downpours to Haiti, western Cuba, Jamaica, and the southwest Dominican Republic. This morning's flight by the Hurricane Hunters found that Ernesto had a very high central pressure of 1006 mb and top winds near 50 mph. The latest wind shear analysis from the SHIPS model shows moderate shear of 10 - 15 knots affecting the storm, but there must be some wind shear the satellites are not able to detect affecting Ernesto, given its disorganized appearance. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west, and this dry air is also interfering with Ernesto's organization.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image with 375 meter resolution taken of Ernesto by the new Suomi NPP satellite at 1:39 pm EDT August 4, 2012. At the time, Ernesto had a flare-up of intense thunderstorms, and had top winds of 60 mph. Image credit: University of Wisconsin Madison CIMSS.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's rapid forward speed of 23 mph has been part of the reason for its lack of intensification, but the storm is expected to slow down Monday and Tuesday in response to a trough of low pressure passing to the north. This slowing, in combination with low wind shear, a moister environment, and increasing heat energy in the ocean, may allow Ernesto to strengthen some before making landfall in Belize or Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday night. However, the storm will be passing very close to the north coast of Honduras, putting a portion of its circulation over land and limiting intensification potential. It is unlikely Ernesto will become a hurricane in the Caribbean; NHC is giving just a 19% chance that this will occur. The main threat from Ernesto will be heavy rains over Honduras, Belize, Mexico, and Jamaica. The track forecast for Ernesto has become a bit easier, since the storm's current disorganization and more southerly path make will make it more difficult for the storm to make a northwesterly turn into the Gulf of Mexico like the UKMET and GFDL models are predicting. A stronger Ernesto would have been more likely to turn northwest under the influence of a trough of low pressure passing to the north. If Ernesto survives its crossing of the Yucatan Peninsula, the potential exists for it to re-strengthen over the Bay of Campeche, and make a second landfall on Mexico's coast on Friday, between Tampico and Veracruz. It's pretty unlikely that Ernesto will hit the U.S.-- though Brownsville, Texas could see some rain from Ernesto's outer spiral bands on Friday, if the storm survives that long.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto, showing the exposed low-level center--a swirl due south of Jamaica--and only very limited heavy thunderstorm activity surrounding the center.

Tropical Storm Florence
Tropical Storm Florence continues to plow westward at 14 mph over the Eastern Atlantic, and is not a threat to any land areas for next five days. The SHIPS model is predicting a moderate 5 - 15 knots of wind shear for Florence Sunday and Monday, but the shear will increase to the high range as Florence encounters an upper-level trough of low pressure on Tuesday. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis shows that a large area of dry air lies to the north and west of Florence, and this dry air will likely cause problems for the storm. Ocean temperature are near 26 - 26.5°C, which is right at the threshold for where a tropical storm can typically exist. It is possible that Florence could pose a threat to Bermuda next weekend, if the storm survives that long. Both the GFS and ECMWF models dissipate Florence before then.

Historic heat wave in Oklahoma
A second day of destructive fires affected Oklahoma on Saturday, thanks to extreme heat and drought, low humidities, and strong winds in advance of an approaching cold front. At 3 pm CDT Saturday, Oklahoma City had a temperature of 107°, a humidity of 19%, and winds of 16 mph gusting to 22 mph. The Oklahoma fires have destroyed at least 125 homes. The high temperature in Oklahoma City on Saturday reached 109°, the 12th warmest temperature recorded in the city since records began in 1891. Friday's high of 113° tied for the warmest temperature in city history.


Figure 3. Highway 48 is covered in smoke as flames continue, Saturday, Aug 4, 2012, east of Drumright, OK. Image credit: Associated Press.

The only comparable Oklahoma heat wave: August 1936
The only heat wave in Oklahoma history that compares to the August 2012 heat wave occurred during the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936, the hottest summer in U.S. history. Oklahoma City experienced three days at 110° that summer, and a record streak of 22 straight days with a temperature of 100° or hotter. Those numbers are comparable to 2012's: three days at 110° or hotter, and a string of 18 consecutive days (so far) with temperatures of 100° or hotter. The weak cold front that passed though Oklahoma Saturday will bring temperatures about 10° cooler over the next few days, but high temperatures are still expected to approach 100° in Oklahoma City Sunday through Tuesday. It's worth noting that Oklahoma City has experienced only 11 days since 1890 with a high of 110° or greater. Three of those days were in 2011, three in 2012, and three in the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a new post on July's heat extremes in the U.S.


Figure 4. Most of Oklahoma has experienced nine consecutive days with highs of 100° or more, and many regions, including Oklahoma City, have had a streak of eighteen such days. Image credit: Oklahoma Mesonet.

Severe thunderstorm complex forces evacuation of Lollapalooza
A organized complex of severe thunderstorms developed over Eastern Iowa and Northern Illinois late Saturday afternoon, forming a dangerous bow echo that swept through Chicago, forcing the evacuation of the Lollapalooza music festival. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logged over 150 reports of wind damage from the storm, with five of the thunderstorms containing winds in excess of hurricane force (74 mph.) And just yesterday, my daughter was bemoaning her misfortune at not being able to get tickets to the show! The thunderstorm complex traveled about 300 miles from Eastern Iowa to Ohio, generating winds gust in excess of 58 mph along most of its path, meeting the definition of a derecho.


Figure 5. Radar image of the severe thunderstorm complex that spawned a dangerous bow echo over Chicago, which forced the evacuation of the Lollapalooza music festival.

Jeff Masters

IN THE EYE OF THE STORM (nanamac)
Storm clouds overwhelming Chicago
IN THE EYE OF THE STORM
IN THE EYE OF THE STORM (nanamac)
Sheets of rain & darkness!
IN THE EYE OF THE STORM
()
Storm damage (Bubbly)
Straight line winds during a severe thunderstorm left crumpled metal and splintered wood behind in Frytown, Iowa
Storm damage

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I will be not surprised if ernesto relocate again far to the north. xp
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Quoting JLPR2:


If the water were warmer around her area we could have gotten an almost hurricane or even a decent cat 1 out of her. Bummer, those are the best type of storms, pretty, strong and out to sea.

She could have continued Lisa's legacy...
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5672
Quoting RTSplayer:
This is what happens when a guy is just minding his business on a weather site and a bikini ad pops up...




Orange sequins pucker back bikini.

One of the few times I could seriously Pucker up and kiss someone's ASS and don't feel any shame in saying so.

Too bad catalog doesn't post a way to contact a model.


The male delusion, right? She's taken by now anyway.

So depressing...




i hop you injoy the 24hr bannd you get in the AM


if i where you i would re move it
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1427. nigel20
...FLORENCE STILL WEAKENING...
11:00 PM AST Sun Aug 5
Location: 16.2°N 37.9°W
Moving: W at 13 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
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1426. JLPR2
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

Florence made a great run for 60mph. She was just trying to get our attention but we were focusing our attention on Ernesto. So she gave up and gave in to the elements.
She was done trying to impress us.


If the water were warmer around her area we could have gotten an almost hurricane or even a decent cat 1 out of her. Bummer, those are the best type of storms, pretty, strong and out to sea.
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1423. Skyepony (Mod)
sar2401~ OSCAT caught Ernesto as a full on open wave earlier today. A vortex message was a big strengthening from this.

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TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
0300 UTC MON AUG 06 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 37.9W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 37.9W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 37.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.3N 39.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.7N 43.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.3N 46.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.1N 50.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.9N 57.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 22.0N 62.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 25.0N 67.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 37.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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1418. JLPR2
Quoting Tazmanian:



PM me with the names so i can added any jfv or jason name i may have miss plzs


That would be a lot of work for me Taz, I would have to copy every single one of them one by one as they are in different Textboxes. :\


Also...

Anyone knows what happened to the NASA imagery page? The last image available is when Ernesto was south of PR.

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Quoting pottery:

Would love to be there to be part of that!
We trying for a medal with Phillips in the cycling tomorrow. Going good.
Guy looks happy enough 2 win it. watching ur guy in the 400m also...
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1416. nigel20
The daily SOI has gone back positive

Daily SOI: 4.3
30 Day SOI: -1.5
90 Day SOI: -5.1
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1415. yoboi
Quoting LostTomorrows:


Dead giveaway.



what was the clue???lol
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1413. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
DEVELOPED LOW, FORMER DEPRESSION 13
9:00 AM JST August 6 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Extratropical Low Near Wake Island

At 0:00 AM UTC, Extratropical Low (1004 hPa) located at 26.0N 162.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving north slowly.

This is the final tropical cyclone advisory from the Japan Meteorological Agency

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #35
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM HAIKUI (1211)
9:00 AM JST August 6 2012
=============================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In East China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Haikui (970 hPa) located at 27.1N 126.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
====================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
260 NM from the center in north quadrant
210 NM from the center in south quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
==========================

24 HRS: 27.2N 123.8E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - East China Sea
48 HRS: 28.6N 121.7E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - East China Sea
72 HRS: 30.2N 119.8E - 45 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Overland Central China
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Speaking of trolls... where's Storm? LOL
Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 530
Quoting JLPR2:
And here we go.

Seems the combination that is killing Florence is 25C waters and dry air.


Florence made a great run for 60mph. She was just trying to get our attention but we were focusing our attention on Ernesto. So she gave up and gave in to the elements.
She was done trying to impress us.
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 12 Comments: 2318
1410. pottery
Quoting BahaHurican:
And the Caribbean... share the love... lol... hoping 4 a Car. sweep in the 400 2morrow... 5/8 of the field from this area.

And I'm glad the wx wasn't too bad to interrupt the party...

Amen!
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1409. yoboi
Quoting tennisgirl08:


He really needs to slow down significantly sooner rather than later in order to strengthen.

Looks much better on radar, but pressure is staying the same because he's still moving too fast and not getting vertically stacked.


bout the same thoughts here i think he formed to close to equator was first strike...
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Recon is almost in the center again, thankfully we don't have a strong hurricane shooting the gap and making a US landfall like most thought at one time or another. Could strengthen to a hurricane if it makes it to the GOM.
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1406. nigel20
Quoting BahaHurican:
And the Caribbean... share the love... lol... hoping 4 a Car. sweep in the 400 2morrow... 5/8 of the field from this area.

And I'm glad the wx wasn't too bad to interrupt the party...

No problem...same here.
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Skyepony, we've been seeing pressures around 1002mb or so, which is probably what the NHC will go with. That's been happening every center fix.
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Troll hunting night, I see -_-

Just click ignore or minuses... that's all, folks.
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Quoting nigel20:

Agreed. Today was a great day for all of Jamaica.
And the Caribbean... share the love... lol... hoping 4 a Car. sweep in the 400 2morrow... 5/8 of the field from this area.

And I'm glad the wx wasn't too bad to interrupt the party...



BTW, this is the only reasonably up-to-date image I could retrieve from the NASA imagery site we often use...
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am calling it a night on the blog too many trolls


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1399. JLPR2
And here we go.

Seems the combination that is killing Florence is 25C waters and dry air.





It will be interesting to see how it reacts to hotter waters down the road.
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Ok. I am out! Too many trolls on the blog with too many people feeding them.
Member Since: July 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1242
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
destin5fam


what nothing to say



Is destin5fam the guy plussing all of the trolls? Everyone put him on the ignore list... it is probably Jason.

Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 530
Quoting JLPR2:


I'm shocked I have more than you 131...
XD



PM me with the names so i can added any jfv or jason name i may have miss plzs
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1394. JLPR2
Quoting Tazmanian:




i got 125 ignore


I'm shocked I have more than you 131...
XD
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1393. pottery
Quoting 19N81W:
Amazing we can't even get rain out of a passing tropical storm.......I need something else to look at when I wake up

May I recommend the mirror?
Horrible thought, I know, but still....
:):))

Are you guys still dry there?
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i think we sould get back too are storm or a lot of us are going too end up ban in the AM
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Quoting Slamguitar:
Well guys, I was sent home from work because there was nothing to do, so I guess I'm spending my last few hours as a minor watching Ernie in the W Caribbean, and then of course my first few hours as a 21 year old. Much better than a hot @#!*% factory if you ask me.

Now Ernesto needs to give me a show!


On a side note, the lakes are still slowing warming overall. On Labor Day I'll actually be able to swim in Superior for more than a few minutes without going hypothermic.



The Milwaukee buoy normally reads 63, it's been 80 degrees. Trying to swim in Lake Michigan was always a "numbing" experience.

(Unrelated - my grandparents are probably rolling in their graves over what happened a few miles from their graves today -- the shooting)
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1389. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
destin5fam


what nothing to say

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Quoting yoboi:
tennis whats ya thoughts with ernesto???


He really needs to slow down significantly sooner rather than later in order to strengthen.

Looks much better on radar, but pressure is staying the same because he's still moving too fast and not getting vertically stacked.
Member Since: July 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1242
1387. Thrawst
Quoting Tazmanian:
would you guys stop falling for the fake pat he a imposter posting in his name



look at the date he joined and commets



are real pat has way more commet hes all most up where i am


LOLOL, how does one simply write that many comments?!!?!?

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Quoting Pocamocca:
This is a Mexican storm. Always has been. Ernesto will be sporting a huge sombrero in a few days and there's really nothing more to it...


Definitely Mexican because he will hit the Yucatan, but whether or not he is even a storm after that can't be known, models can't pin this down on sea let alone with land interaction then more sea. nor can it be known if he'll hit the States, although that's probably around a 5% possibility.
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1384. 19N81W
Amazing we can't even get rain out of a passing tropical storm.......I need something else to look at when I wake up
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1383. yoboi
Quoting floridaboy14:
who is JFV? i know who jason is he is the guy that posts things with an exclamation point



is jfv an jason the same person??? idk who jfv really is people who been on here longer could prob tell the story...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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