Ernesto disorganized; more fires, extreme heat for Oklahoma

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:25 PM GMT on August 05, 2012

Share this Blog
45
+

A disorganized Tropical Storm Ernesto continues to speed westward at 23 mph across the Caribbean. Ernesto has brought sporadic heavy rains to Jamaica today, and Kingston has picked up 0.51" of rain as of noon, and recorded top sustained winds of 22 mph. Ernesto looks very unhealthy on visible satellite loops, with its low-level circulation center a naked swirl exposed to view with almost no heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. However, the storm does have some rather far-flung spiral bands, and these bands are bringing occasional heavy downpours to Haiti, western Cuba, Jamaica, and the southwest Dominican Republic. This morning's flight by the Hurricane Hunters found that Ernesto had a very high central pressure of 1006 mb and top winds near 50 mph. The latest wind shear analysis from the SHIPS model shows moderate shear of 10 - 15 knots affecting the storm, but there must be some wind shear the satellites are not able to detect affecting Ernesto, given its disorganized appearance. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west, and this dry air is also interfering with Ernesto's organization.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image with 375 meter resolution taken of Ernesto by the new Suomi NPP satellite at 1:39 pm EDT August 4, 2012. At the time, Ernesto had a flare-up of intense thunderstorms, and had top winds of 60 mph. Image credit: University of Wisconsin Madison CIMSS.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's rapid forward speed of 23 mph has been part of the reason for its lack of intensification, but the storm is expected to slow down Monday and Tuesday in response to a trough of low pressure passing to the north. This slowing, in combination with low wind shear, a moister environment, and increasing heat energy in the ocean, may allow Ernesto to strengthen some before making landfall in Belize or Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday night. However, the storm will be passing very close to the north coast of Honduras, putting a portion of its circulation over land and limiting intensification potential. It is unlikely Ernesto will become a hurricane in the Caribbean; NHC is giving just a 19% chance that this will occur. The main threat from Ernesto will be heavy rains over Honduras, Belize, Mexico, and Jamaica. The track forecast for Ernesto has become a bit easier, since the storm's current disorganization and more southerly path make will make it more difficult for the storm to make a northwesterly turn into the Gulf of Mexico like the UKMET and GFDL models are predicting. A stronger Ernesto would have been more likely to turn northwest under the influence of a trough of low pressure passing to the north. If Ernesto survives its crossing of the Yucatan Peninsula, the potential exists for it to re-strengthen over the Bay of Campeche, and make a second landfall on Mexico's coast on Friday, between Tampico and Veracruz. It's pretty unlikely that Ernesto will hit the U.S.-- though Brownsville, Texas could see some rain from Ernesto's outer spiral bands on Friday, if the storm survives that long.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto, showing the exposed low-level center--a swirl due south of Jamaica--and only very limited heavy thunderstorm activity surrounding the center.

Tropical Storm Florence
Tropical Storm Florence continues to plow westward at 14 mph over the Eastern Atlantic, and is not a threat to any land areas for next five days. The SHIPS model is predicting a moderate 5 - 15 knots of wind shear for Florence Sunday and Monday, but the shear will increase to the high range as Florence encounters an upper-level trough of low pressure on Tuesday. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis shows that a large area of dry air lies to the north and west of Florence, and this dry air will likely cause problems for the storm. Ocean temperature are near 26 - 26.5°C, which is right at the threshold for where a tropical storm can typically exist. It is possible that Florence could pose a threat to Bermuda next weekend, if the storm survives that long. Both the GFS and ECMWF models dissipate Florence before then.

Historic heat wave in Oklahoma
A second day of destructive fires affected Oklahoma on Saturday, thanks to extreme heat and drought, low humidities, and strong winds in advance of an approaching cold front. At 3 pm CDT Saturday, Oklahoma City had a temperature of 107°, a humidity of 19%, and winds of 16 mph gusting to 22 mph. The Oklahoma fires have destroyed at least 125 homes. The high temperature in Oklahoma City on Saturday reached 109°, the 12th warmest temperature recorded in the city since records began in 1891. Friday's high of 113° tied for the warmest temperature in city history.


Figure 3. Highway 48 is covered in smoke as flames continue, Saturday, Aug 4, 2012, east of Drumright, OK. Image credit: Associated Press.

The only comparable Oklahoma heat wave: August 1936
The only heat wave in Oklahoma history that compares to the August 2012 heat wave occurred during the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936, the hottest summer in U.S. history. Oklahoma City experienced three days at 110° that summer, and a record streak of 22 straight days with a temperature of 100° or hotter. Those numbers are comparable to 2012's: three days at 110° or hotter, and a string of 18 consecutive days (so far) with temperatures of 100° or hotter. The weak cold front that passed though Oklahoma Saturday will bring temperatures about 10° cooler over the next few days, but high temperatures are still expected to approach 100° in Oklahoma City Sunday through Tuesday. It's worth noting that Oklahoma City has experienced only 11 days since 1890 with a high of 110° or greater. Three of those days were in 2011, three in 2012, and three in the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a new post on July's heat extremes in the U.S.


Figure 4. Most of Oklahoma has experienced nine consecutive days with highs of 100° or more, and many regions, including Oklahoma City, have had a streak of eighteen such days. Image credit: Oklahoma Mesonet.

Severe thunderstorm complex forces evacuation of Lollapalooza
A organized complex of severe thunderstorms developed over Eastern Iowa and Northern Illinois late Saturday afternoon, forming a dangerous bow echo that swept through Chicago, forcing the evacuation of the Lollapalooza music festival. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logged over 150 reports of wind damage from the storm, with five of the thunderstorms containing winds in excess of hurricane force (74 mph.) And just yesterday, my daughter was bemoaning her misfortune at not being able to get tickets to the show! The thunderstorm complex traveled about 300 miles from Eastern Iowa to Ohio, generating winds gust in excess of 58 mph along most of its path, meeting the definition of a derecho.


Figure 5. Radar image of the severe thunderstorm complex that spawned a dangerous bow echo over Chicago, which forced the evacuation of the Lollapalooza music festival.

Jeff Masters

IN THE EYE OF THE STORM (nanamac)
Storm clouds overwhelming Chicago
IN THE EYE OF THE STORM
IN THE EYE OF THE STORM (nanamac)
Sheets of rain & darkness!
IN THE EYE OF THE STORM
()
Storm damage (Bubbly)
Straight line winds during a severe thunderstorm left crumpled metal and splintered wood behind in Frytown, Iowa
Storm damage

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1583 - 1533

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

Quoting MississippiWx:


Unfortunately, it's nothing new and we can't blame it on changes in the business. It's just what happens when you don't have live admin. I've seen it way worse than this.


I don't understand how when you have paying customers there is no live support. Uou can't pay someone 8 bucks an hour to just pay attention to the blog?
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6059
1582. Levi32
No 500mb height falls north of Ernesto yet.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
I guess this is the new WU, usernames with swear words will be allowed to be created and trolls will run free without being checked. Guess we knew it would happen once TWC took over.

This is nothing new, and shouldn't be blamed on TWC. Doesn't make it any less sad though.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31422
1580. yoboi
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey who is the new dude patrapfag
JFV right


nah it someone else....i cracked the mystery for ya'll
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2328
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
I guess this is the new WU, usernames with swear words will be allowed to be created and trolls will run free without being checked. Guess we knew it would happen once TWC took over.


Unfortunately, it's nothing new and we can't blame it on changes in the business. It's just what happens when you don't have live admin. I've seen it way worse than this.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
Quoting AllStar17:
It is unbelievable to me...and also quite bothersome...that some people have basically just completely dismissed Ernesto. Even if it does not affect the United States, that does not mean that nobody lives in Central America and Mexico. In fact, in those areas it does not take a strong storm to cause significant problems, as both areas are very susceptible to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
That is true as a honduran I know the worst system I can remember was td sixteen of 2008 it is the only time my house was flood inside and with my family we almost go to the places that people stay when flood happens. it produce a lot of rain that some people say it was worse than Mitch for this city in terms of flood.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1576. yoboi
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Time to pull this out...


i did an IP scan the dude has 6 names active right now on here...
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2328
I guess this is the new WU, usernames with swear words will be allowed to be created and trolls will run free without being checked. Guess we knew it would happen once TWC took over.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6059
Quoting AllStar17:
It is unbelievable to me...and also quite bothersome...that some people have basically just completely dismissed Ernesto. Even if it does not affect the United States, that does not mean that nobody lives in Central America and Mexico. In fact, in those areas it does not take a strong storm to cause significant problems, as both areas are very susceptible to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
I'll be the first to admit I thought it was a goner this morning when I woke up, but I should have realized that conditions this time of the year in the Western Caribbean is favorable for development, especially when considering water temperatures, TCHP. lower wind shear, less dry air, and slower trades.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Forward speed is going to be a big factor with this system. Note how the forecast for the developing trough over the central U.S. has deepened since yesterday.

Hold onto your horses Ernestoy, it looks like cavalry reinforcements are on the way ...











Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Time to pull this out...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It is unbelievable to me...and also quite bothersome...that some people have basically just completely dismissed Ernesto. Even if it does not affect the United States, that does not mean that nobody lives in Central America and Mexico. In fact, in those areas it does not take a strong storm to cause significant problems, as both areas are very susceptible to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


Possible since it has slowed down. Not uncommon for systems to slow significantly in the Western Caribbean while getting organized. Still has to align with the MLC though.

cool I also think as soon as Ernesto does that a movement off to the WNW or N of WNW any one else says may get dragged or relocate
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
this blog is headed downhill in a hurry...
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6059
Ernesto's path so far pretty straight forward unlike the 4 storms before him. We all know Debby was hard to track, Chris did a counter-clockwise loop in the open Atlantic, Beryl started as an invest in the Caribbean developed into a Tropical Storm off the Southeast Coast and worked back towards Northeast FL. made landfall and got picked up by a trough accelerating it out to sea, and Alberto took a similar track to Beryl but curved back out to sea before making landfall.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1557. yoboi
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Funny how admin is always banning people that don't deserved to be banned, but when all the trolls decide to gang up at one time, the admins are nowhere to be seen.

Sigh..


they could all be the same person oooops the cat got out the bag there all 1 person i found out..
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2328

My update...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Altestic2012:
1493... Pocamocca: The story went that in 2008, "she" started posting around the time of Gustav's landfall as a 16 year old girl with a pretty avatar on this blog. Her posts were very astute and meteorologically sound, and the curious thing was that she said she was from Galveston, and this was before Ike was even a named storm, but "she" impressed all the younger guys with "her" hurricane blogs as Ike developed and tracked westward, and people on here were literally crying over her when "she" didn't post for like a couple weeks after Ike made landfall, then "she" was finally somehow exposed as a dude. I forgot how though.


Ha ha.. I don't even have to go back and read who you are talking about.

It was CapnK who did the sluthing to reveal it was a stock photo. I will never forget that!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


Think Pocamocca is showing his true colors tonight...Told everyone last week who it was...


Didn't get the memo. I have ignored 5 people tonight. It seems like only the best people are left, for now.
Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 528
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Funny how admin is always banning people that don't deserved to be banned, but when all the trolls decide to gang up at one time, the admins are nowhere to be seen.

Sigh..
It is a bit sad.
Maybe the admin is off watching the Olympics since the members here didn't follow admin's desire to keep the results to themselves and not be a spoiler. They suggested some sports site might be more appropriate.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
ok I think that Ernesto's LLCOC will either jog N or relocate N to right under the convection ball anyone think this could happen


Possible since it has slowed down. Not uncommon for systems to slow significantly in the Western Caribbean while getting organized. Still has to align with the MLC though.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Funny how admin is always banning people that don't deserved to be banned, but when all the trolls decide to gang up at one time, the admins are nowhere to be seen.

Sigh..



I no tell me about it

Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114707
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Funny how admin is always banning people that don't deserved to be banned, but when all the trolls decide to gang up at one time, the admins are nowhere to be seen.

Sigh..


Agree
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2150
ok I think that Ernesto's LLCOC will either jog N or relocate N to right under the convection ball anyone think this could happen
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


That's it. Poof, you're gone.


Think Pocamocca is showing his true colors tonight...Told everyone last week who it was...
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
Quoting Pocamocca:
I'll take a beer over some cheap NOLA infested Fresca. Grow a pair will ya Ratrap!!


That's it. Poof, you're gone.
Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 528
Funny how admin is always banning people that don't deserved to be banned, but when all the trolls decide to gang up at one time, the admins are nowhere to be seen.

Sigh..
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31422

Viewing: 1583 - 1533

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.