Ernesto disorganized; more fires, extreme heat for Oklahoma

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:25 PM GMT on August 05, 2012

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A disorganized Tropical Storm Ernesto continues to speed westward at 23 mph across the Caribbean. Ernesto has brought sporadic heavy rains to Jamaica today, and Kingston has picked up 0.51" of rain as of noon, and recorded top sustained winds of 22 mph. Ernesto looks very unhealthy on visible satellite loops, with its low-level circulation center a naked swirl exposed to view with almost no heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. However, the storm does have some rather far-flung spiral bands, and these bands are bringing occasional heavy downpours to Haiti, western Cuba, Jamaica, and the southwest Dominican Republic. This morning's flight by the Hurricane Hunters found that Ernesto had a very high central pressure of 1006 mb and top winds near 50 mph. The latest wind shear analysis from the SHIPS model shows moderate shear of 10 - 15 knots affecting the storm, but there must be some wind shear the satellites are not able to detect affecting Ernesto, given its disorganized appearance. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west, and this dry air is also interfering with Ernesto's organization.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image with 375 meter resolution taken of Ernesto by the new Suomi NPP satellite at 1:39 pm EDT August 4, 2012. At the time, Ernesto had a flare-up of intense thunderstorms, and had top winds of 60 mph. Image credit: University of Wisconsin Madison CIMSS.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's rapid forward speed of 23 mph has been part of the reason for its lack of intensification, but the storm is expected to slow down Monday and Tuesday in response to a trough of low pressure passing to the north. This slowing, in combination with low wind shear, a moister environment, and increasing heat energy in the ocean, may allow Ernesto to strengthen some before making landfall in Belize or Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday night. However, the storm will be passing very close to the north coast of Honduras, putting a portion of its circulation over land and limiting intensification potential. It is unlikely Ernesto will become a hurricane in the Caribbean; NHC is giving just a 19% chance that this will occur. The main threat from Ernesto will be heavy rains over Honduras, Belize, Mexico, and Jamaica. The track forecast for Ernesto has become a bit easier, since the storm's current disorganization and more southerly path make will make it more difficult for the storm to make a northwesterly turn into the Gulf of Mexico like the UKMET and GFDL models are predicting. A stronger Ernesto would have been more likely to turn northwest under the influence of a trough of low pressure passing to the north. If Ernesto survives its crossing of the Yucatan Peninsula, the potential exists for it to re-strengthen over the Bay of Campeche, and make a second landfall on Mexico's coast on Friday, between Tampico and Veracruz. It's pretty unlikely that Ernesto will hit the U.S.-- though Brownsville, Texas could see some rain from Ernesto's outer spiral bands on Friday, if the storm survives that long.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto, showing the exposed low-level center--a swirl due south of Jamaica--and only very limited heavy thunderstorm activity surrounding the center.

Tropical Storm Florence
Tropical Storm Florence continues to plow westward at 14 mph over the Eastern Atlantic, and is not a threat to any land areas for next five days. The SHIPS model is predicting a moderate 5 - 15 knots of wind shear for Florence Sunday and Monday, but the shear will increase to the high range as Florence encounters an upper-level trough of low pressure on Tuesday. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis shows that a large area of dry air lies to the north and west of Florence, and this dry air will likely cause problems for the storm. Ocean temperature are near 26 - 26.5°C, which is right at the threshold for where a tropical storm can typically exist. It is possible that Florence could pose a threat to Bermuda next weekend, if the storm survives that long. Both the GFS and ECMWF models dissipate Florence before then.

Historic heat wave in Oklahoma
A second day of destructive fires affected Oklahoma on Saturday, thanks to extreme heat and drought, low humidities, and strong winds in advance of an approaching cold front. At 3 pm CDT Saturday, Oklahoma City had a temperature of 107°, a humidity of 19%, and winds of 16 mph gusting to 22 mph. The Oklahoma fires have destroyed at least 125 homes. The high temperature in Oklahoma City on Saturday reached 109°, the 12th warmest temperature recorded in the city since records began in 1891. Friday's high of 113° tied for the warmest temperature in city history.


Figure 3. Highway 48 is covered in smoke as flames continue, Saturday, Aug 4, 2012, east of Drumright, OK. Image credit: Associated Press.

The only comparable Oklahoma heat wave: August 1936
The only heat wave in Oklahoma history that compares to the August 2012 heat wave occurred during the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936, the hottest summer in U.S. history. Oklahoma City experienced three days at 110° that summer, and a record streak of 22 straight days with a temperature of 100° or hotter. Those numbers are comparable to 2012's: three days at 110° or hotter, and a string of 18 consecutive days (so far) with temperatures of 100° or hotter. The weak cold front that passed though Oklahoma Saturday will bring temperatures about 10° cooler over the next few days, but high temperatures are still expected to approach 100° in Oklahoma City Sunday through Tuesday. It's worth noting that Oklahoma City has experienced only 11 days since 1890 with a high of 110° or greater. Three of those days were in 2011, three in 2012, and three in the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a new post on July's heat extremes in the U.S.


Figure 4. Most of Oklahoma has experienced nine consecutive days with highs of 100° or more, and many regions, including Oklahoma City, have had a streak of eighteen such days. Image credit: Oklahoma Mesonet.

Severe thunderstorm complex forces evacuation of Lollapalooza
A organized complex of severe thunderstorms developed over Eastern Iowa and Northern Illinois late Saturday afternoon, forming a dangerous bow echo that swept through Chicago, forcing the evacuation of the Lollapalooza music festival. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logged over 150 reports of wind damage from the storm, with five of the thunderstorms containing winds in excess of hurricane force (74 mph.) And just yesterday, my daughter was bemoaning her misfortune at not being able to get tickets to the show! The thunderstorm complex traveled about 300 miles from Eastern Iowa to Ohio, generating winds gust in excess of 58 mph along most of its path, meeting the definition of a derecho.


Figure 5. Radar image of the severe thunderstorm complex that spawned a dangerous bow echo over Chicago, which forced the evacuation of the Lollapalooza music festival.

Jeff Masters

IN THE EYE OF THE STORM (nanamac)
Storm clouds overwhelming Chicago
IN THE EYE OF THE STORM
IN THE EYE OF THE STORM (nanamac)
Sheets of rain & darkness!
IN THE EYE OF THE STORM
()
Storm damage (Bubbly)
Straight line winds during a severe thunderstorm left crumpled metal and splintered wood behind in Frytown, Iowa
Storm damage

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1683. yoboi
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


My computer crashed last week after I got that virus message on here... If you know what's going on, please put a stop to it now.


let me check what anit virus that might help prob already in ya computer...this really makes me mad people do this to people..
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2329
Quoting DubiousCane2012:
Minions, come forth; we shall now move into MX's blog! OK?

Did you hear me PatrapFag & PocaMoca?

My guess is this is a very much Child-molester, acting like a little kid and being a weirdo... JFV, Jason... Grr. Im leaving before I get Hacked.
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1680. sar2401
Quoting yoboi:


ya need to worry he has complicated virus

And you know this how?
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13230
Quoting yoboi:


ya need to worry he has complicated virus

Who are we talking about here?

I don't want a virus..
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31495
1678. yoboi
Quoting sar2401:


Software fault with your virus protection program. It just reports false positives. Swith to another anti-virus (Microsoft Security Essentials works for me, and it's free) or just ignore the warnings and don't worry about them.


ya need to worry he has complicated virus
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2329
1677. 7544
oppps a new bahama blob starting at this hour
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G'night Everyone...
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Quoting yoboi:
red head fred i told ya several weeks to go nicely it took me time to get the tracking device it's time to go it's not cool to attach virus to your differ names with links ya infected people and thats not cool if ya use the virus to harm people on here i will step the pursuit up and stopp ya like a roach...


My computer crashed last week after I got that virus message on here... If you know what's going on, please put a stop to it now.
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yoboi can you seriously hack this troll? Or is it just bluff?

Because if you can, please do!
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TropicalStormFlorence :: DOM-Dominica :: FDF-Martinique :: SLU-SaintLucia

The easternmost dot on the kinked line is where TD.6 became TS.Florence
The easternmost dot on the longest line is TS.Florence's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TS.Florence's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach (within 18miles or 29 kilometres) to a coastline.
As long as it stays weak enough to avoid heading more northward into colder waters, TS.Florence could be a problem for the LesserAntilles in ~5days7hours from now (when this comment was posted)

Copy&paste dom, fdf, slu, 14.0n28.5w- 14.6n30.0w- 15.2n31.2w- 15.8n32.5w- 16.2n33.8w- 16.2n35.0w- 16.2n36.1w- 16.2n37.2w, 16.2n36.1w-14.84n61.063w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger-scale map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison.
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Quoting sar2401:


Just my unofficial guess but, having been in your area before, Ernesto should make landfall far enough north in Belize, or even the Yucatan, if Ernesto gets stronger, I really think your local met is right. It shouldn't be any worse than te typical tropical wave that you get there. Some rain, lightning, and a little wind, but no landslides or flooding. Just keep an eye here and you'll know what's happening.
Thanks :)
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4034
1669. sar2401
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Yes, I always get the virus warning. How do I get rid of him?


Software fault with your virus protection program. It just reports false positives. Swith to another anti-virus (Microsoft Security Essentials works for me, and it's free) or just ignore the warnings and don't worry about them.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13230
Quoting BahaHurican:
Ut uh... Ernesto's centre is drifting south... not a good sign in light of climatology... what normally happens w/ storms that drift in that area????

Baha, You've entered the War zone... Take cover, Or get shot...
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Quoting Pocamocca:
Thank you TA13. YOu didn't have to email me to to tell me it was done. Kinda wierd.

I didn't?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31495
Ut uh... Ernesto's centre is drifting south... not a good sign in light of climatology... what normally happens w/ storms that drift in that area????
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1662. sar2401
Please, just use the red "!" symbol to report annoyances and let the mods deal with it. Respondng and quoting only makes things worse.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13230
Quoting Pocamocca:


Yes, I do. It's because you started you own blog. You didn't actually create one, but you hit the "create your own blog" button since you original intention was to block ppl like me.

To predictable you are, punk. Go home.

Why do you show up on the "Show Average" filter?
You shouldn't even deserve to be on the "Show All" filter...
*IGNORED*
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I have pretty much been lurking these past three years. For anyone who used to follow StormW here is a link to a page he posts on

http://stormw.wordpress.com/

He is still my go to source when H canes are entering the GOM.
Did TWC buy Wunderground?

seriously the troll patrol is lacking....I ignored 5 people the last hour.

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1655. yoboi
Quoting galvestonhurricane:
Just a few minutes ago, my handle said I had posted over 600 comments. Now, it says I have only made 12 comments. Anyone know what is going on?


that patrap hacked ya he has virus attached with links in here under differ names ever wonder why ya get virus warning???
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2329
I think the next HH will get out of miami
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:
Just a few minutes ago, my handle said I had posted over 600 comments. Now, it says I have only made 12 comments. Anyone know what is going on?

Your comment number was reset.

XD

No, I don't know. That only usually happens when you make your first blog.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31495
Quoting GTcooliebai:
It's nice to see bloggers like you, AllStar17, CycloneKid, and anyone I didn't mention come up with your own forecasts. Great Job guys, I'm going to try to do one myself, once I stop being lazy.

Thanks, I really appreciate that, I will continue to make them when storms are present.
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1651. sar2401
Quoting allancalderini:
Thanks but I am asking because my local news are saying that is nothing to worry about and that maybe some showers I am not sure to tell the truth.and thanks for your concern athomeintx I will hope this hurricane season don`t affect us severely.


Just my unofficial guess but, having been in your area before, Ernesto should make landfall far enough north in Belize, or even the Yucatan, if Ernesto gets stronger, I really think your local met is right. It shouldn't be any worse than te typical tropical wave that you get there. Some rain, lightning, and a little wind, but no landslides or flooding. Just keep an eye here and you'll know what's happening.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13230
Quoting galvestonhurricane:
Just a few minutes ago, my handle said I had posted over 600 comments. Now, it says I have only made 12 comments. Anyone know what is going on?

[HACKED]
lol
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1647. yoboi
Quoting PatrapFag:


JFV?


really just leave with some dignity i sent admin who ya really are....just call it a loss and go
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2329
Quoting GTcooliebai:
It's nice to see bloggers like you, AllStar17, CycloneKid, and anyone I didn't mention come up with your own forecasts. Great Job guys, I'm going to try to do one myself, once I stop being lazy.

I made one earlier! I just dont have any free time to go off and do them, very often...
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Just a few minutes ago, my handle said I had posted over 600 comments. Now, it says I have only made 12 comments. Anyone know what is going on?
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If anyone would like to move to my blog to escape trolling, we can do that. I'll be glad to ban them and keep the hammer down.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
Expect nothing and you won't be disappointed.

As soon as you can offer a logical explanation of what Ernesto is going to do, it surely will do something else.

Be prepared for anything, everything, and nothing at all.

It could die in six hours.

It could explosively deepen and go "RAWR" and stomp on somebody.

Just saying, 'cuz I've seen it happen a few times, and so have some of you.

Until they ever get a theory and a model that can forecast 12 to 24 hours intensity why bother with the rest of it?


This proves intensity forecasts have a long way to go. Needs better science, better data, better math, better theory, and all of that before you can even start on a better computer model.

Apparently, we actually have a better understanding of the parameters of a supernova over 6000 light years distance, than we do of a tropical cyclone right here on Earth. Now why is that?

Is there something wrong with the definitions of some presumed fundamental physics law or constant? Is there something wrong with our understanding of thermodynamics, mechanical work, or angular momentum? Energy?

More data is needed.

Presently, they fly around in there dropping big clunky dropsondes ever so often, when what is needed is more like a million insect size probes that can fly around and detect wind and elevation. Pressure is useful, but doesn't tell the whole story. I'd like to know for the sake of models, exactly what's going on as many places and elevations as possible. I'm so tired of seeing stupidity like this with Ernesto where, for no known reason, the storm is just not behaving the same way pressure wise as it did with the winds.



We outsource everything else to China anyway, right?

Let's have Apple and Fox Conn team up with NHC and Darpa to mass produce some sort of miniaturized weather chip. Throw enough money at it and it'll work. I hear a team of engineers miniaturized a medical neutron emitter device by like 3 orders of magnitude in just a few years work, so why not this?

If you could do that with a dropsonde and get it to like insect scale, you could just dump a whole cloud of the things out the back of a plane and be done with it.

then when they can make like a million of them for 10 per penny or something, then you'd have real data, instead of the mess we have now. No offense to HH pilots and crew, they're what we have and we use the technology we've got, but if there's going to be any significant improvement of this problem it needs data input that is better by like an order of magnitude or two at least.
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Quoting wxchaser97:
My forecast graphic, NOT OFFICIAL
It's nice to see bloggers like you, AllStar17, CycloneKid, and anyone I didn't mention come up with your own forecasts. Great Job guys, I'm going to try to do one myself, once I stop being lazy.
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1639. sar2401
Quoting stormchaser19:
you need to pay every year this blog?


Not so far. You just have to put with a bunch of ads. A membership is cheap. If you're going to do it, do it now, before the Weather Channel starts working its magic on WU. :(
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13230
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Stay safe if it comes your way. Hope it won't be bad.
Thanks but I am asking because my local news are saying that is nothing to worry about and that maybe some showers I am not sure to tell the truth if it is nothing it is a tropical system after all.and thanks for your concern athomeintx I will hope this hurricane season don`t affect us severely.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4034
Quoting cg2916:
Recon data stopped... is the mission over?

Yes.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31495
1635. yoboi
Quoting PatrapFag:


Asking for one name, that's all!


the original poster is rhf signed up in 2006....has over 200 names since joining...now please just go
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2329
1634. Melagoo
Typical losers that like to ruin blogs ... especially one like this where Dr. Masters posts such vital information regarding potential weather conditions that could effect many people ... TROLLS most often have no concern for that kind of thing and just like to upset us and make it miserable to come in and post.
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1633. cg2916
Recon data stopped... is the mission over?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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