Ernesto disorganized; more fires, extreme heat for Oklahoma

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:25 PM GMT on August 05, 2012

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A disorganized Tropical Storm Ernesto continues to speed westward at 23 mph across the Caribbean. Ernesto has brought sporadic heavy rains to Jamaica today, and Kingston has picked up 0.51" of rain as of noon, and recorded top sustained winds of 22 mph. Ernesto looks very unhealthy on visible satellite loops, with its low-level circulation center a naked swirl exposed to view with almost no heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. However, the storm does have some rather far-flung spiral bands, and these bands are bringing occasional heavy downpours to Haiti, western Cuba, Jamaica, and the southwest Dominican Republic. This morning's flight by the Hurricane Hunters found that Ernesto had a very high central pressure of 1006 mb and top winds near 50 mph. The latest wind shear analysis from the SHIPS model shows moderate shear of 10 - 15 knots affecting the storm, but there must be some wind shear the satellites are not able to detect affecting Ernesto, given its disorganized appearance. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west, and this dry air is also interfering with Ernesto's organization.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image with 375 meter resolution taken of Ernesto by the new Suomi NPP satellite at 1:39 pm EDT August 4, 2012. At the time, Ernesto had a flare-up of intense thunderstorms, and had top winds of 60 mph. Image credit: University of Wisconsin Madison CIMSS.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's rapid forward speed of 23 mph has been part of the reason for its lack of intensification, but the storm is expected to slow down Monday and Tuesday in response to a trough of low pressure passing to the north. This slowing, in combination with low wind shear, a moister environment, and increasing heat energy in the ocean, may allow Ernesto to strengthen some before making landfall in Belize or Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday night. However, the storm will be passing very close to the north coast of Honduras, putting a portion of its circulation over land and limiting intensification potential. It is unlikely Ernesto will become a hurricane in the Caribbean; NHC is giving just a 19% chance that this will occur. The main threat from Ernesto will be heavy rains over Honduras, Belize, Mexico, and Jamaica. The track forecast for Ernesto has become a bit easier, since the storm's current disorganization and more southerly path make will make it more difficult for the storm to make a northwesterly turn into the Gulf of Mexico like the UKMET and GFDL models are predicting. A stronger Ernesto would have been more likely to turn northwest under the influence of a trough of low pressure passing to the north. If Ernesto survives its crossing of the Yucatan Peninsula, the potential exists for it to re-strengthen over the Bay of Campeche, and make a second landfall on Mexico's coast on Friday, between Tampico and Veracruz. It's pretty unlikely that Ernesto will hit the U.S.-- though Brownsville, Texas could see some rain from Ernesto's outer spiral bands on Friday, if the storm survives that long.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto, showing the exposed low-level center--a swirl due south of Jamaica--and only very limited heavy thunderstorm activity surrounding the center.

Tropical Storm Florence
Tropical Storm Florence continues to plow westward at 14 mph over the Eastern Atlantic, and is not a threat to any land areas for next five days. The SHIPS model is predicting a moderate 5 - 15 knots of wind shear for Florence Sunday and Monday, but the shear will increase to the high range as Florence encounters an upper-level trough of low pressure on Tuesday. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis shows that a large area of dry air lies to the north and west of Florence, and this dry air will likely cause problems for the storm. Ocean temperature are near 26 - 26.5°C, which is right at the threshold for where a tropical storm can typically exist. It is possible that Florence could pose a threat to Bermuda next weekend, if the storm survives that long. Both the GFS and ECMWF models dissipate Florence before then.

Historic heat wave in Oklahoma
A second day of destructive fires affected Oklahoma on Saturday, thanks to extreme heat and drought, low humidities, and strong winds in advance of an approaching cold front. At 3 pm CDT Saturday, Oklahoma City had a temperature of 107°, a humidity of 19%, and winds of 16 mph gusting to 22 mph. The Oklahoma fires have destroyed at least 125 homes. The high temperature in Oklahoma City on Saturday reached 109°, the 12th warmest temperature recorded in the city since records began in 1891. Friday's high of 113° tied for the warmest temperature in city history.


Figure 3. Highway 48 is covered in smoke as flames continue, Saturday, Aug 4, 2012, east of Drumright, OK. Image credit: Associated Press.

The only comparable Oklahoma heat wave: August 1936
The only heat wave in Oklahoma history that compares to the August 2012 heat wave occurred during the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936, the hottest summer in U.S. history. Oklahoma City experienced three days at 110° that summer, and a record streak of 22 straight days with a temperature of 100° or hotter. Those numbers are comparable to 2012's: three days at 110° or hotter, and a string of 18 consecutive days (so far) with temperatures of 100° or hotter. The weak cold front that passed though Oklahoma Saturday will bring temperatures about 10° cooler over the next few days, but high temperatures are still expected to approach 100° in Oklahoma City Sunday through Tuesday. It's worth noting that Oklahoma City has experienced only 11 days since 1890 with a high of 110° or greater. Three of those days were in 2011, three in 2012, and three in the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a new post on July's heat extremes in the U.S.


Figure 4. Most of Oklahoma has experienced nine consecutive days with highs of 100° or more, and many regions, including Oklahoma City, have had a streak of eighteen such days. Image credit: Oklahoma Mesonet.

Severe thunderstorm complex forces evacuation of Lollapalooza
A organized complex of severe thunderstorms developed over Eastern Iowa and Northern Illinois late Saturday afternoon, forming a dangerous bow echo that swept through Chicago, forcing the evacuation of the Lollapalooza music festival. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logged over 150 reports of wind damage from the storm, with five of the thunderstorms containing winds in excess of hurricane force (74 mph.) And just yesterday, my daughter was bemoaning her misfortune at not being able to get tickets to the show! The thunderstorm complex traveled about 300 miles from Eastern Iowa to Ohio, generating winds gust in excess of 58 mph along most of its path, meeting the definition of a derecho.


Figure 5. Radar image of the severe thunderstorm complex that spawned a dangerous bow echo over Chicago, which forced the evacuation of the Lollapalooza music festival.

Jeff Masters

IN THE EYE OF THE STORM (nanamac)
Storm clouds overwhelming Chicago
IN THE EYE OF THE STORM
IN THE EYE OF THE STORM (nanamac)
Sheets of rain & darkness!
IN THE EYE OF THE STORM
()
Storm damage (Bubbly)
Straight line winds during a severe thunderstorm left crumpled metal and splintered wood behind in Frytown, Iowa
Storm damage

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Quoting CybrTeddy:
If you're going to be up tonight, I STRONGLY recommend watching the Curiosity Mars landing in about an hour. Not to derail of course, but it is quite historic.
a href="STRONGLY recommend if you're going to be up tonight to watch this historic moment in spaceflight in about an hour. Hope you don't mind me linking MississippiWx. Link" target="_blank">Link
This is amazing as well. Link They are talking about what I linked with the Ustream.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Wow, my link died there.
Link



Thanks for the link...
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I wouldn't be surprised to see Ernesto intensify quicker than anticipated before landfall in the Yucatan. Seems like we should find a stronger storm in the morning.



Good night all.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32515
1730. yoboi
Quoting Tribucanes:
Thanks for the offer Mississippi. I just have frozen up the last two times I was here. I'm having some issues with the site, so I'm going to just say hi and check in tomorrow. Hope they really put some upgrades and real time monitors here if this is going to keep up. Talk to you all tomorrow.


later trib
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Wow, my link died there.
Link
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Good evening all :)

I see the animals have broken out of the cage again. What a joke, ignore and focus on important things. They will never be important.

The GFS is performing spectacularly with Ernesto this time around.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
If you're going to be up tonight, I STRONGLY recommend watching the Curiosity Mars landing in about an hour. Not to derail of course, but it is quite historic.
a href="STRONGLY recommend if you're going to be up tonight to watch this historic moment in spaceflight in about an hour. Hope you don't mind me linking MississippiWx. Link" target="_blank">Link


I'm seeing now
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2169
1726. yoboi
i am telling ya this dude has 1 complicated virus the other 2 are kinda old....
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
If you're going to be up tonight, I STRONGLY recommend watching the Curiosity Mars landing in about an hour. Not to derail of course, but it is quite historic.
a href="STRONGLY recommend if you're going to be up tonight to watch this historic moment in spaceflight in about an hour. Hope you don't mind me linking MississippiWx. Link" target="_blank">Link


+1000

I'm watching it now. So cool
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Thanks for the offer Mississippi. I just have frozen up the last two times I was here. I'm having some issues with the site, so I'm going to just say hi and check in tomorrow. Hope they really put some upgrades and real time monitors here if this is going to keep up. Talk to you all tomorrow.
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For those of you with Virus... sometimes it's just spyware...

download superantispyware (its free) and try it....
It captures what other do not...
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
I'm wondering... Where the heck are the admins, it's been like 3 hours of these butt-clowns on this blog!
Dude...[-] and [!].... every message... try it... u have the power....

I guess Ernesto is too boring...
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The guy who is sending the message with virus is a professional hacker, i think is the same guy that hacked the chat of TROPIC TALK
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2169
Quoting CybrTeddy:
If you're going to be up tonight, I STRONGLY recommend watching the Curiosity Mars landing in about an hour. Not to derail of course, but it is quite historic.
a href="STRONGLY recommend if you're going to be up tonight to watch this historic moment in spaceflight in about an hour. Hope you don't mind me linking MississippiWx. Link" target="_blank">Link


It is one of the most complex landing procedures ever by NASA
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1716. yoboi
Quoting stormchaser19:

HE JUST NEEDS DOWNLOAD A ANTIVIRUS


it can't hurt there is 3 virus 2 kinda old and 1 never heard of...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If you're going to be up tonight, I STRONGLY recommend watching the Curiosity Mars landing in about an hour. Not to derail of course, but it is quite historic.
a href="STRONGLY recommend if you're going to be up tonight to watch this historic moment in spaceflight in about an hour. Hope you don't mind me linking MississippiWx. Link" target="_blank">Link
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1714. yoboi
Quoting Tribucanes:
Wow viruses, someone with a horribly hateful name. Lots of people disagree with Patrap. Patrap is a Veteran. That is so disgraceful and unacceptable. Wish Kori was here, think he might argue it's hateful for other reasons too. At least Ernesto's track and probable future is good news. Hope everyone is having a good weekend.


hey trib the dude has been here since 2006 has over 200 names since then...how was ya weekend???
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yes.
Hmmmm, mine'sstill updating...

Quoting allancalderini:
Thanks but I am asking because my local news are saying that is nothing to worry about and that maybe some showers I am not sure to tell the truth if it is nothing it is a tropical system after all.and thanks for your concern athomeintx I will hope this hurricane season don`t affect us severely.
ya'll r supposed 2 get some TS type impacts. Since Ernesto is still pretty disorganized, it may not be too bad... but u should get some wind and some tropical rain. I guess the flooding would be the worst worry.

Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Baha, You've entered the War zone... Take cover, Or get shot...
I don't talk much 2 trolls... I just [-] and [!]. Works wonders.

It also helps to keep talking about the wx, which, actually, is starting to get interesting again. I keep looking at this Sward drift and wondering what Ernesto has up his sleeve... That is about the worst place 4 a TC to hang about if u don't want it to ramp up a few orders of magnitude...
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Quoting Tribucanes:
Wow viruses, someone with a horribly hateful name. Lots of people disagree with Patrap. Patrap is a Veteran. That is so disgraceful and unacceptable. Wish Kori was here, think he might argue it's hateful for other reasons too. At least Ernesto's track and probable future is good news. Hope everyone is having a good weekend.


Come join us in my blog, Tribucanes. It's troll-free. :-)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Wow viruses, someone with a horribly hateful name. Lots of people disagree with Patrap. Patrap is a Veteran. That is so disgraceful and unacceptable. Wish Kori was here, think he might argue it's hateful for other reasons too. At least Ernesto's track and probable future is good news. Hope everyone is having a good weekend.
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Feels good to have been wrong a few days ago.

Hopefully Ernie just hits Nicaragua and Honduras asap and chokes. Then there won't be anything to worry about.

Stay moving though, for goodness sake, we don't need any deluges.

Looking at 12 hours before landfall as a weak nothing, barely worth mentioning.

A thunderstorm is worse, really.

I mean look how many Derechos and crap we had in the U.S. with no warning?

They can deal with a 50mph piece of left-over junk, hopefully.
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Quoting Slamguitar:
Ernie is going to miss a mainland Nicaragua landfall and will make landfall around 50 miles north of Chetumal just below Hurricane status. Just my guess as an inexperienced met student. Anything at this point seems like a guess, though the real corridor for this storm is getting clearer fast.
Who is Ernie? Oh, you ,meant Ernesto, poor thing still in grief for Ex Florencia.
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1707. yoboi
best advice right now if ya don't really know the person don't open up the link....when i find out help for yall i will pass along....
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Quoting yoboi:


don't give false info to him, this dude has many names on here and has some differ virus not common...

HE JUST NEEDS DOWNLOAD A ANTIVIRUS
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2169
1705. yoboi
Quoting sar2401:


TA, you won't get a virus here. I've been here a long time and it's never happened. Some misinformation is being spread.


don't give false info to him, this dude has many names on here and has some differ virus not common...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Oh, you know...just sitting back watching the Olympics..


i'm watching the WSOP On ESPN
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2169
Quoting yoboi:


the original poster is rhf signed up in 2006....has over 200 names since joining...now please just go


Would one of those names be CAT5Hurricane?
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1701. yoboi
Quoting sar2401:

And you know this how?


i got some IP tracking software from someone in higher up law enforcement we grew up together really messed up what some people will do nowdays i am calling to see what kind of anti virus will work..might take a day or so to find out..
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This is ridiculous might as well go till it gets cleaned up. Sad to see though.
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Quoting sar2401:


Thankfully, not as a major hurricane. Belize City has been flattened several times in the last 60 years.
Yeah I would say Cat. 1 at the most, but what the heck I have been off with this fickle storm.
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1697. sar2401
Quoting GTcooliebai:
GFS wants to bring Ernesto into Belize City it appears.



Loop stop and right click to zoom in.


Thankfully, not as a major hurricane. Belize City has been flattened several times in the last 60 years.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16278
Quoting yoboi:


let me check what anit virus that might help prob already in ya computer...this really makes me mad people do this to people..


I'm not on my computer, I'm on an iPad because I'm still trying to figure out how to clean the virus off my computer.
Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 541
1694. wxmod
Extreme bloom. Arctic. MODIS

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1692. sar2401
Quoting WxGeekVA:
yoboi can you seriously hack this troll? Or is it just bluff?

Because if you can, please do!


It's a bluff. Just stop talking about it.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16278
Quoting WxGeekVA:
I'm wondering... Where the heck are the admins, it's been like 3 hours of these butt-clowns on this blog!

Oh, you know...just sitting back watching the Olympics..
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32515
GFS wants to bring Ernesto into Belize City it appears.



Loop stop and left click to zoom in.
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1688. Melagoo
G'nite all ... Good Nite TROLLS ... don't forget to close the door on your way out ... Trolls please wipe your feet at the door if you're coming in to screw around ... NITE!!
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I'm wondering... Where the heck are the admins, it's been like 3 hours of these butt-clowns on this blog!
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1684. sar2401
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Who are we talking about here?

I don't want a virus..


TA, you won't get a virus here. I've been here a long time and it's never happened. Some misinformation is being spread.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16278
1683. yoboi
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


My computer crashed last week after I got that virus message on here... If you know what's going on, please put a stop to it now.


let me check what anit virus that might help prob already in ya computer...this really makes me mad people do this to people..
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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