Ernesto disorganized; more fires, extreme heat for Oklahoma

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:25 PM GMT on August 05, 2012

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A disorganized Tropical Storm Ernesto continues to speed westward at 23 mph across the Caribbean. Ernesto has brought sporadic heavy rains to Jamaica today, and Kingston has picked up 0.51" of rain as of noon, and recorded top sustained winds of 22 mph. Ernesto looks very unhealthy on visible satellite loops, with its low-level circulation center a naked swirl exposed to view with almost no heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. However, the storm does have some rather far-flung spiral bands, and these bands are bringing occasional heavy downpours to Haiti, western Cuba, Jamaica, and the southwest Dominican Republic. This morning's flight by the Hurricane Hunters found that Ernesto had a very high central pressure of 1006 mb and top winds near 50 mph. The latest wind shear analysis from the SHIPS model shows moderate shear of 10 - 15 knots affecting the storm, but there must be some wind shear the satellites are not able to detect affecting Ernesto, given its disorganized appearance. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west, and this dry air is also interfering with Ernesto's organization.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image with 375 meter resolution taken of Ernesto by the new Suomi NPP satellite at 1:39 pm EDT August 4, 2012. At the time, Ernesto had a flare-up of intense thunderstorms, and had top winds of 60 mph. Image credit: University of Wisconsin Madison CIMSS.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's rapid forward speed of 23 mph has been part of the reason for its lack of intensification, but the storm is expected to slow down Monday and Tuesday in response to a trough of low pressure passing to the north. This slowing, in combination with low wind shear, a moister environment, and increasing heat energy in the ocean, may allow Ernesto to strengthen some before making landfall in Belize or Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday night. However, the storm will be passing very close to the north coast of Honduras, putting a portion of its circulation over land and limiting intensification potential. It is unlikely Ernesto will become a hurricane in the Caribbean; NHC is giving just a 19% chance that this will occur. The main threat from Ernesto will be heavy rains over Honduras, Belize, Mexico, and Jamaica. The track forecast for Ernesto has become a bit easier, since the storm's current disorganization and more southerly path make will make it more difficult for the storm to make a northwesterly turn into the Gulf of Mexico like the UKMET and GFDL models are predicting. A stronger Ernesto would have been more likely to turn northwest under the influence of a trough of low pressure passing to the north. If Ernesto survives its crossing of the Yucatan Peninsula, the potential exists for it to re-strengthen over the Bay of Campeche, and make a second landfall on Mexico's coast on Friday, between Tampico and Veracruz. It's pretty unlikely that Ernesto will hit the U.S.-- though Brownsville, Texas could see some rain from Ernesto's outer spiral bands on Friday, if the storm survives that long.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto, showing the exposed low-level center--a swirl due south of Jamaica--and only very limited heavy thunderstorm activity surrounding the center.

Tropical Storm Florence
Tropical Storm Florence continues to plow westward at 14 mph over the Eastern Atlantic, and is not a threat to any land areas for next five days. The SHIPS model is predicting a moderate 5 - 15 knots of wind shear for Florence Sunday and Monday, but the shear will increase to the high range as Florence encounters an upper-level trough of low pressure on Tuesday. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis shows that a large area of dry air lies to the north and west of Florence, and this dry air will likely cause problems for the storm. Ocean temperature are near 26 - 26.5°C, which is right at the threshold for where a tropical storm can typically exist. It is possible that Florence could pose a threat to Bermuda next weekend, if the storm survives that long. Both the GFS and ECMWF models dissipate Florence before then.

Historic heat wave in Oklahoma
A second day of destructive fires affected Oklahoma on Saturday, thanks to extreme heat and drought, low humidities, and strong winds in advance of an approaching cold front. At 3 pm CDT Saturday, Oklahoma City had a temperature of 107°, a humidity of 19%, and winds of 16 mph gusting to 22 mph. The Oklahoma fires have destroyed at least 125 homes. The high temperature in Oklahoma City on Saturday reached 109°, the 12th warmest temperature recorded in the city since records began in 1891. Friday's high of 113° tied for the warmest temperature in city history.


Figure 3. Highway 48 is covered in smoke as flames continue, Saturday, Aug 4, 2012, east of Drumright, OK. Image credit: Associated Press.

The only comparable Oklahoma heat wave: August 1936
The only heat wave in Oklahoma history that compares to the August 2012 heat wave occurred during the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936, the hottest summer in U.S. history. Oklahoma City experienced three days at 110° that summer, and a record streak of 22 straight days with a temperature of 100° or hotter. Those numbers are comparable to 2012's: three days at 110° or hotter, and a string of 18 consecutive days (so far) with temperatures of 100° or hotter. The weak cold front that passed though Oklahoma Saturday will bring temperatures about 10° cooler over the next few days, but high temperatures are still expected to approach 100° in Oklahoma City Sunday through Tuesday. It's worth noting that Oklahoma City has experienced only 11 days since 1890 with a high of 110° or greater. Three of those days were in 2011, three in 2012, and three in the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a new post on July's heat extremes in the U.S.


Figure 4. Most of Oklahoma has experienced nine consecutive days with highs of 100° or more, and many regions, including Oklahoma City, have had a streak of eighteen such days. Image credit: Oklahoma Mesonet.

Severe thunderstorm complex forces evacuation of Lollapalooza
A organized complex of severe thunderstorms developed over Eastern Iowa and Northern Illinois late Saturday afternoon, forming a dangerous bow echo that swept through Chicago, forcing the evacuation of the Lollapalooza music festival. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logged over 150 reports of wind damage from the storm, with five of the thunderstorms containing winds in excess of hurricane force (74 mph.) And just yesterday, my daughter was bemoaning her misfortune at not being able to get tickets to the show! The thunderstorm complex traveled about 300 miles from Eastern Iowa to Ohio, generating winds gust in excess of 58 mph along most of its path, meeting the definition of a derecho.


Figure 5. Radar image of the severe thunderstorm complex that spawned a dangerous bow echo over Chicago, which forced the evacuation of the Lollapalooza music festival.

Jeff Masters

IN THE EYE OF THE STORM (nanamac)
Storm clouds overwhelming Chicago
IN THE EYE OF THE STORM
IN THE EYE OF THE STORM (nanamac)
Sheets of rain & darkness!
IN THE EYE OF THE STORM
()
Storm damage (Bubbly)
Straight line winds during a severe thunderstorm left crumpled metal and splintered wood behind in Frytown, Iowa
Storm damage

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Quoting sunlinepr:
No champagne or Carvernet?
Real quick. Wonder if anyone has thought about it but USA is 16 tril in debt and we are spending billions on exploring a desert planet. Priorities a little out of whack I think.
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WELCOME TO MARS CURIOSITY!
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I'm sensing a repositioned coc and track when I awake.... IMHO...prob not but interesting to put out there what I think I'm seeing now. Signing out...thanks for the great info...as always.
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Quoting hulazigzag:
Stop whining
That's not whining; that's, at worst, hectoring. More like admonishing.

If ur going to tell somebody what they're doing, use precise vocabulary, not that vague 'stuff'....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
Kudos to NASA. What an accomplishment!
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Quoting BahaHurican:
That's because she deletes 'em.... lol


lol sssshhhh...
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Quoting Levi32:
Odyssey's first high-res image looking out at its landing site!




YESSSSSSSSSSS.BROOOOOOOOOOOO
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Its too dry in there.....No champagne or Carvernet?
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1874. Patrap
For Scale, Full Scale Mock up.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128749
Quoting sunlinepr:


For the Nth time....


I meant northward shift as in, landfall on the Yucatan further north, not inferring anything in regards to the US. And plus, I have not been on here all evening, so I wouldn't know that this constantly went around...
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Quoting yoboi:


looks like it landed in west texas...


lol. If it sends a picture of blowing sand and tumbleweeds it just might be. :)
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1871. Levi32
Odyssey's first high-res image looking out at its landing site!

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
VERY FIRST IMAGE...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
First high-res image in!!
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Quoting sar2401:


And how does that differ from mass destruction? Your chase is meaningless compared to the damage a major hurricane hitting the East Coast. It will come on its own without you being petulant because no storm has cooperated with your need for a "chase".
Stop whining
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Quoting tropicfreak:


That was one heck of a convective blowup there. Scary part is, it has really slowed down in the past few hours. Don't write off a northward shift... (not a big shift) yet.


For the Nth time....
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Quoting Grothar:


I cannot imagine you writing anything derogatory to anyone, TX. It is not in keeping with your character.
That's because she deletes 'em.... lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
I wonder when the high Res-Images will come in.

Just got my answer.
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1864. Levi32
Wheels down!
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
Wheels down on Mars!!
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1862. Patrap
thumbnail's beaucoup cher
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128749
Quoting sunlinepr:


That was one heck of a convective blowup there. Scary part is, it has really slowed down in the past few hours. Don't write off a northward shift... (not a big shift) yet.
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First image in!!! Beautiful!!!
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1859. yoboi
Quoting Patrap:
Welcome to Mars



looks like it landed in west texas...
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1858. scott39
Quoting Grothar:


I love to keep you in suspense.
and its killing me! Ive also got the whiff of a possible RI.
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Images on the way.... Its almost night in there....
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1856. emguy
Levi, I'm having some challenge when looking at the various satellite products, now that the cloud shield is obscuring the low level center.

With the slowed forward speed and the anticipation the the circulation will restack, what are you seeing?

Do you think the low level may have reformed/backtracked in the process of retucking under the convection? Asking because I'm a little out of the loop on the data right now and I'm trying to catch up/figure it out.

Of course, would not affect the overall steering flow or track of Ernesto now, but wondering if her may have hit the reset button, and it's just a little hard for me to tell for sure right now.

PS: Curiosity made it and is on Mars! :)
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Awesome Curiousity!!! Just awesome!! Great job!!!
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1854. Patrap
Images Loading...

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128749
1853. Patrap
Outstanding.

Well done, great, great, great..

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128749
1852. Grothar
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


lol Been there done that. :)


I cannot imagine you writing anything derogatory to anyone, TX. It is not in keeping with your character.
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1851. yqt1001
1 more point for humanity...


Still thousands of points to mars. :P

Maybe one day we'll catch up.
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AWESOME LANDING OF CURIOSITY!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Congrats Curiosity.
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Quoting midgulfmom:
Hericane96...maybe are eyes aren't that bad....we will find out....lol

time will only tell.lol
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1847. Patrap
Welcome to Mars

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128749
YEEEEEEEEEEEAAAAAAHHHHHH
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1845. Patrap
Good luck Curiosity,,call the Ball

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128749
1844. Grothar
Quoting scott39:
Do I spy a new track in the near future?


I love to keep you in suspense.
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1843. sar2401
Quoting Stormchaser121:

nope. Im looking for a chase.


And how does that differ from mass destruction? Your chase is meaningless compared to the damage a major hurricane hitting the East Coast. It will come on its own without you being petulant because no storm has cooperated with your need for a "chase".
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1841. Patrap
Radar acquired the ground.

Its go time.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128749
Quoting Patrap:
Chute..deployed



The most difficult maneuver comes now...
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1839. Grothar
Quoting BahaHurican:
I gotta admit, I do type them... then delete...lol


Ha.
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Quoting scott39:
Do I spy a new track in the near future?
possible...

Quoting Skyepony:
OSCAT caught Florence
Ernesto?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
Hericane96...maybe are eyes aren't that bad....we will find out....lol
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1836. Patrap
Chute..deployed

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128749
1835. yoboi
Quoting aspectre:
1738 yoboi: I am stomping trolls, what is ernesto doing???

No you're not. You are being a troll. Your WAY over the top and WAY overly numerous "reaction"s make me suspect that you are also the troll that you're "responding" to.


had to look and see if ya was in the over 200 names ya not so proceed...
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1834. Patrap
Good tone,,tracking VHF Link connection, no data

Buffering, copy data, updated.

Hard Link confirmed
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128749
Lots of applauses... I just saw one of the monitors, the guy was watching the Olympics.... ;)
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.