Ernesto disorganized; more fires, extreme heat for Oklahoma

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:25 PM GMT on August 05, 2012

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A disorganized Tropical Storm Ernesto continues to speed westward at 23 mph across the Caribbean. Ernesto has brought sporadic heavy rains to Jamaica today, and Kingston has picked up 0.51" of rain as of noon, and recorded top sustained winds of 22 mph. Ernesto looks very unhealthy on visible satellite loops, with its low-level circulation center a naked swirl exposed to view with almost no heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. However, the storm does have some rather far-flung spiral bands, and these bands are bringing occasional heavy downpours to Haiti, western Cuba, Jamaica, and the southwest Dominican Republic. This morning's flight by the Hurricane Hunters found that Ernesto had a very high central pressure of 1006 mb and top winds near 50 mph. The latest wind shear analysis from the SHIPS model shows moderate shear of 10 - 15 knots affecting the storm, but there must be some wind shear the satellites are not able to detect affecting Ernesto, given its disorganized appearance. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west, and this dry air is also interfering with Ernesto's organization.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image with 375 meter resolution taken of Ernesto by the new Suomi NPP satellite at 1:39 pm EDT August 4, 2012. At the time, Ernesto had a flare-up of intense thunderstorms, and had top winds of 60 mph. Image credit: University of Wisconsin Madison CIMSS.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's rapid forward speed of 23 mph has been part of the reason for its lack of intensification, but the storm is expected to slow down Monday and Tuesday in response to a trough of low pressure passing to the north. This slowing, in combination with low wind shear, a moister environment, and increasing heat energy in the ocean, may allow Ernesto to strengthen some before making landfall in Belize or Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday night. However, the storm will be passing very close to the north coast of Honduras, putting a portion of its circulation over land and limiting intensification potential. It is unlikely Ernesto will become a hurricane in the Caribbean; NHC is giving just a 19% chance that this will occur. The main threat from Ernesto will be heavy rains over Honduras, Belize, Mexico, and Jamaica. The track forecast for Ernesto has become a bit easier, since the storm's current disorganization and more southerly path make will make it more difficult for the storm to make a northwesterly turn into the Gulf of Mexico like the UKMET and GFDL models are predicting. A stronger Ernesto would have been more likely to turn northwest under the influence of a trough of low pressure passing to the north. If Ernesto survives its crossing of the Yucatan Peninsula, the potential exists for it to re-strengthen over the Bay of Campeche, and make a second landfall on Mexico's coast on Friday, between Tampico and Veracruz. It's pretty unlikely that Ernesto will hit the U.S.-- though Brownsville, Texas could see some rain from Ernesto's outer spiral bands on Friday, if the storm survives that long.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto, showing the exposed low-level center--a swirl due south of Jamaica--and only very limited heavy thunderstorm activity surrounding the center.

Tropical Storm Florence
Tropical Storm Florence continues to plow westward at 14 mph over the Eastern Atlantic, and is not a threat to any land areas for next five days. The SHIPS model is predicting a moderate 5 - 15 knots of wind shear for Florence Sunday and Monday, but the shear will increase to the high range as Florence encounters an upper-level trough of low pressure on Tuesday. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis shows that a large area of dry air lies to the north and west of Florence, and this dry air will likely cause problems for the storm. Ocean temperature are near 26 - 26.5°C, which is right at the threshold for where a tropical storm can typically exist. It is possible that Florence could pose a threat to Bermuda next weekend, if the storm survives that long. Both the GFS and ECMWF models dissipate Florence before then.

Historic heat wave in Oklahoma
A second day of destructive fires affected Oklahoma on Saturday, thanks to extreme heat and drought, low humidities, and strong winds in advance of an approaching cold front. At 3 pm CDT Saturday, Oklahoma City had a temperature of 107°, a humidity of 19%, and winds of 16 mph gusting to 22 mph. The Oklahoma fires have destroyed at least 125 homes. The high temperature in Oklahoma City on Saturday reached 109°, the 12th warmest temperature recorded in the city since records began in 1891. Friday's high of 113° tied for the warmest temperature in city history.


Figure 3. Highway 48 is covered in smoke as flames continue, Saturday, Aug 4, 2012, east of Drumright, OK. Image credit: Associated Press.

The only comparable Oklahoma heat wave: August 1936
The only heat wave in Oklahoma history that compares to the August 2012 heat wave occurred during the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936, the hottest summer in U.S. history. Oklahoma City experienced three days at 110° that summer, and a record streak of 22 straight days with a temperature of 100° or hotter. Those numbers are comparable to 2012's: three days at 110° or hotter, and a string of 18 consecutive days (so far) with temperatures of 100° or hotter. The weak cold front that passed though Oklahoma Saturday will bring temperatures about 10° cooler over the next few days, but high temperatures are still expected to approach 100° in Oklahoma City Sunday through Tuesday. It's worth noting that Oklahoma City has experienced only 11 days since 1890 with a high of 110° or greater. Three of those days were in 2011, three in 2012, and three in the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a new post on July's heat extremes in the U.S.


Figure 4. Most of Oklahoma has experienced nine consecutive days with highs of 100° or more, and many regions, including Oklahoma City, have had a streak of eighteen such days. Image credit: Oklahoma Mesonet.

Severe thunderstorm complex forces evacuation of Lollapalooza
A organized complex of severe thunderstorms developed over Eastern Iowa and Northern Illinois late Saturday afternoon, forming a dangerous bow echo that swept through Chicago, forcing the evacuation of the Lollapalooza music festival. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logged over 150 reports of wind damage from the storm, with five of the thunderstorms containing winds in excess of hurricane force (74 mph.) And just yesterday, my daughter was bemoaning her misfortune at not being able to get tickets to the show! The thunderstorm complex traveled about 300 miles from Eastern Iowa to Ohio, generating winds gust in excess of 58 mph along most of its path, meeting the definition of a derecho.


Figure 5. Radar image of the severe thunderstorm complex that spawned a dangerous bow echo over Chicago, which forced the evacuation of the Lollapalooza music festival.

Jeff Masters

IN THE EYE OF THE STORM (nanamac)
Storm clouds overwhelming Chicago
IN THE EYE OF THE STORM
IN THE EYE OF THE STORM (nanamac)
Sheets of rain & darkness!
IN THE EYE OF THE STORM
()
Storm damage (Bubbly)
Straight line winds during a severe thunderstorm left crumpled metal and splintered wood behind in Frytown, Iowa
Storm damage

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One final note for all us armchair mets on why the space program is important.

See all this?

GOES-E satellite loop
GOES-W
ASCAT
Satellite measurement
MIMIC satellite imagery

All of that and much more for data and observing hurricanes would be gone if you cut the budget off under the guise of 'wasteful spending', Atlas V/Delta IV/Soyuz/Protons/Ariane rockets send this up in the first place with hard work by thousands of people before hand.

Completely relevant to tropical weather.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24164
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Is it safe again?
I never left....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22318
LOL! NOGAPS Bombs Ernesto in the sw gulf and takes into northern mexico still! silly model
Member Since: June 4, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 767
1929. Patrap


July 2, 2012
Lockheed Martin Delivers Orion Spacecraft To NASA Kennedy Space Center


Lockheed Martin has delivered the first space-bound Orion spacecraft crew module structure to the Operations and Checkout Building on NASA’s Kennedy Space Center (KSC) in Florida. The crew module structure recently underwent its final friction stir weld at NASA’s Michoud Assembly Facility in New Orleans, La. and was transported to KSC last week to be readied for its Exploration Flight Test (EFT-1) in 2014.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128636
Quoting Levi32:


GFS hints at it too. Both models show a large mid-level cyclonic gyre remaining over central America after Ernesto moves inland to the west, and both models show this gyre regenerating an area of low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico in 6-9 days.


Oh wow ok. Thanks. I couldn't make that out on the GFS I saw.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


When will it be necessary?

As soon as the Apollo program ended, that's been the tone. Have we been in a multi-trillion dollar debt for 40 years? Because that's been the line of thinking.

America needs something to be proud about.



America has plenty to be proud about, you just don't hear about the good things anymore. All attention is built around negative stories. Its an unbelievable achievement, cannot possibly disagree with that. I just don't know if the money spent is worth it at this stage.

And for me, earth is a miracle. I don't need to know if there is somewhere out there that ever sustained life or could in the future. We will be long gone before we ever need to jump ship on this planet (fingers crossed ;p).

Last I will say about the subject.
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
200 AM EDT MON AUG 06 2012

...ERNESTO CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 79.9W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA CASTILLA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH
MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS MONDAY MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AND MOVE NORTH OF THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN GRAND CAYMAN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AND IN
THE WATCH AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS BY LATE MONDAY.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA AS ERNESTO MOVES BY THE
ISLAND. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9821
How anybody could criticize our space program is truly beyond my comprehension.The program is probably one of the best, if not the best reasons the US leads the world in technology.
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Uhhh... just in case anyone cares to know, 2 am advisory came out, pressure still at 1003 mb and winds still at 50. They have it moving W at 13 mph.
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how come the later it gets at night it seems like the bickering gets worst on this blog my be it is bed time for some of you folks
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1920. Patrap
NASA Awards Boeing, SpaceX & Sierra Nevada Corp. With Contracts For Space Shuttle Replacements

By Timothy Stenovec
Posted: 08/03/2012 4:16 pm Updated: 08/03/2012 5:10 pm


If all goes according to plan over the next five years, NASA will no longer have to rely on Russia to get Americans to the International Space Station.

The space agency announced on Friday that it has awarded three companies -- Sierra Nevada Corporation, SpaceX, and Boeing -- contracts totaling over $1.1 billion "to design and develop the next generation of U.S. human spaceflight capabilities."

"Today, we are announcing another critical step toward launching our astronauts from U.S. soil on space systems built by American companies," NASA Administrator Charles Bolden said, according to press materials from NASA. "We have selected three companies that will help keep us on track to end the outsourcing of human spaceflight and create high-paying jobs in Florida and elsewhere across the country."

NASA has not had a way to transport astronauts into space since the retirement of the space shuttle last year. The agency pays Russia -- at a cost of about $63 million per round trip, according to Space.com -- to get Americans to and from the International Space Station.

The Boeing Company was awarded $460 million, the largest chunk of the prize. The aerospace and defense company said it will use the money to further develop the CST-100, a spacecraft that will carry astronauts to the ISS.

NASA awarded Space Exploration Technologies, also known as SpaceX, $440 million, which the company will use to further develop its Dragon spacecraft for astronaut transport. Earlier this year, SpaceX became the first private company to successfully dock a vehicle with the International Space Station.

According to the company, which is hoping to launch its first manned flights by 2015, the Dragon capsule will carry seven astronauts.



SLS Architecture Reference Configuration

An artist rendering of the various configurations of NASA's Space Launch System (SLS), managed by the Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Ala. The flexible configuration, sharing the same basic core-stage, allows for different crew and cargo flights as needed, promoting efficiency, time and cost savings. The SLS enables exploration missions beyond low-Earth orbit and support travel to asteroids, Mars and other destinations within our solar system.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128636
1919. Levi32
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


I don't know.


GFS hints at it too. Both models show a large mid-level cyclonic gyre remaining over central America after Ernesto moves inland to the west, and both models show this gyre regenerating an area of low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico in 6-9 days.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
This is at 168. Ernie?



Think you got a hold of an old CMC run somehow.
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Quoting hulazigzag:
Just making a point about budgeting. It is a great accomplishment. How great is that accomplishment if this country goes bankrupt? The spending on this is wasteful just like thousands of other programs in our government.


Budgeting? NASA gets less than 1% of the federal budget and has been for years.

It brings in jobs, inspires young people, brings hope to the future. It did for me when I was a kid.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24164
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
This is at 168. Ernie?



Whaaaa??? Well, this could be the beginning of a very bad trend. uh oh
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This run loses Ernie in MX. I don't know what that is?

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Is it safe again?
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6592
While Ernesto is in better shape than this time last night, it's still gonna be difficult for any significant strengthening to occur before a Cen.Am/Mexico landfall. A portion of its circulation is going to interact with Honduras and we are seeing him struggle to establish outflow on the W-ern side. The slower forward speed will definitely help his cause however, CIMSS showing it getting aligned a little better vertically through 500 mb.
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If this posts, you should be able to see another image of MARS CURIOSITY'S shadow on MARS. Cool!
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This is at 168. Ernie?

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Quoting yoboi:


we don't even have a shuttle anymore we hitch rides in space now...not much of a race for us...


Very true.... We are being left behind....
But we are ahead on the debt....

Mars One plans suicide mission to Red Planet for 2023

Theres an old joke about sending someone you hate on a one-way trip to Mars. Now, a Dutch entrepreneur has formed a company around this concept -- and its no joke.

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2012/07/24/is-mars- one-serious-about-suicide-mission-to-red-planet/#i xzz22k6GboF1
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9821
Quoting MississippiWx:


...What is that?


I don't know.
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Quoting atmosweather:


I agree with you. Tremendous accomplishment for NASA and mankind but unnecessary right now. I know I will get flack for this...
Possible 2 agree w/ both sides...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22318
Quoting atmosweather:


I agree with you. Tremendous accomplishment for NASA and mankind but unnecessary right now. I know I will get flack for this...


When will it be necessary?

As soon as the Apollo program ended, that's been the tone. Have we been in a multi-trillion dollar debt for 40 years? Because that's been the line of thinking.

America needs something to be proud about.

Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24164
Quoting CybrTeddy:


You're joking right?

Priorities? Please, American spends more on 100x more a year on Pizza than it does for space exploration and the advancement of humanity.

Plus, you have the added factor that with all the terror, sadness, tragedy in the world we have one thing to still hang our heads high about and that is the fact things like this still happen to give us all hope and inspiration.

This is extremely important.
Just making a point about budgeting. It is a great accomplishment. How great is that accomplishment if this country goes bankrupt? The spending on this is wasteful just like thousands of other programs in our government.
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Quoting atmosweather:


I agree with you. Tremendous accomplishment for NASA and mankind but unnecessary right now. I know I will get flack for this...


The humans needs get out of here, this earth will no be forever
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2159
Quoting hulazigzag:
Correct but i could hear the rant in a whiny type voice so whining felt like the right word.
See, now 'rant' works.

why know 10000 wds but only use 1000 of them?

;o)
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22318
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
huh?...



...What is that?
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I am writing a book about Seaside Heights New Jersey history.

Here's how I gave historical hurricane treatment:

In 1815, a strong hurricane brought wind and rain to the Jersey Shore, before slamming into Long Island and the New England states. The 1815 storm was considered about a once in one hundred year event, part of a natural pattern that was repeated in 1903 with the Atlantic City ‘Vagabond’ Hurricane. All three of these storms were low-end hurricanes when they made landfall on the Jersey Shore. Hurricane Irene in 2011 was initially thought to have been a repeat of this, but it was a tropical storm when it hit New Jersey’s coast, a far more common experience.
In 1821, a once in about every 200 year event was seen. It came as a large and powerful storm, equal to what is now described as a Category 4, or an extremely dangerous hurricane. The 1821 storm struck Cape May at full power, and its strongest part, the right front quadrant sliced through eastern portion of the state, with it barrier islands taking a beating. The wind observations of the 1821 storm supported a major hurricane landfall with a fully intact tropical eyewall, the signature of the most intense types of tropical storms. This storm hit as a worst-case scenario. Its path was described as similar to that of what today is the Garden State Parkway. The west part of the state was far more damaged then the east, even though the most destructive energy was focused on the coast. The reason is simple: there wasn’t much to be damaged along the immediate coast of Jersey.
The 1821 storm closed Cranberry Inlet. A marker at Carteret and Bay Boulevard, outside the American Legion building, stands as monument to the inlet’s history.
If the rate of return of about once in 200 years stands true, give or take a few years, such a devastating storm should once again be seen sometimes in the 2010’s or 2020’s
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does any body have link to Honduras north coast radar if so please share thanks
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1899. Grothar
Quoting Levi32:


Recon picked up a SW jog, which seems likely to be due to the convection to the southeast pulling the low-level center around in jerky motions for now.


Do you anticipate a large flare-up of convection between the one to the North and the one to the South? You know, trying to consolidate?
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Quoting hulazigzag:
Real quick. Wonder if anyone has thought about it but USA is 16 tril in debt and we are spending billions on exploring a desert planet. Priorities a little out of whack I think.


True about the debt, but China and Russia and even other countries are into placing a base in there....

We are racing, just like in the 60's....


Mars One plans suicide mission to Red Planet for 2023

Theres an old joke about sending someone you hate on a one-way trip to Mars. Now, a Dutch entrepreneur has formed a company around this concept -- and its no joke.

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2012/07/24/is-mars- one-serious-about-suicide-mission-to-red-planet/#i xzz22k6GboF1



Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2012/07/24/is-mars- one-serious-about-suicide-mission-to-red-planet/#i xzz22k66vNEE

Link

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9821
Quoting hulazigzag:
Real quick. Wonder if anyone has thought about it but USA is 16 tril in debt and we are spending billions on exploring a desert planet. Priorities a little out of whack I think.


I agree with you. Tremendous accomplishment for NASA and mankind but unnecessary right now. I know I will get flack for this...
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Quoting hulazigzag:
Real quick. Wonder if anyone has thought about it but USA is 16 tril in debt and we are spending billions on exploring a desert planet. Priorities a little out of whack I think.


Oh come on. Who knows what we will find on Mars? Don't spoil the party.
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Quoting hulazigzag:
Real quick. Wonder if anyone has thought about it but USA is 16 tril in debt and we are spending billions on exploring a desert planet. Priorities a little out of whack I think.


You're joking right?

Priorities? Please, American spends more on 100x more a year on Pizza than it does for space exploration and the advancement of humanity.

Plus, you have the added factor that with all the terror, sadness, tragedy in the world we have one thing to still hang our heads high about and that is the fact things like this still happen to give us all hope and inspiration.

This is extremely important.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24164
"One small step for a man, one giant leap for mankind."
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Quoting ilovehurricanes13:
its allways sunny weather in Mars no hurricanes at mars at all!!


You want see a hurricane go to jupiter, you will find the greatest
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2159
Quoting BahaHurican:
but not the 1s Gro already ate... lol


Really Gro??? Could you not resist? ;)
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Quoting BahaHurican:
That's not whining; that's, at worst, hectoring. More like admonishing.

If ur going to tell somebody what they're doing, use precise vocabulary, not that vague 'stuff'....
Correct but i could hear the rant in a whiny type voice so whining felt like the right word.
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huh?...

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1888. Grothar
Quoting ilovehurricanes13:
its allways sunny weather in Mars no hurricanes at mars at all!!


They do have terrible storms there though.
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NASA rocks!!! Historic day...just like the first human step on the moon.
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1886. Levi32
Quoting emguy:
Levi, I'm having some challenge when looking at the various satellite products, now that the cloud shield is obscuring the low level center.

With the slowed forward speed and the anticipation the the circulation will restack, what are you seeing?

Do you think the low level may have reformed/backtracked in the process of retucking under the convection? Asking because I'm a little out of the loop on the data right now and I'm trying to catch up/figure it out.

Of course, would not affect the overall steering flow or track of Ernesto now, but wondering if her may have hit the reset button, and it's just a little hard for me to tell for sure right now.

PS: Curiosity made it and is on Mars! :)


Recon picked up a SW jog, which seems likely to be due to the convection to the southeast pulling the low-level center around in jerky motions for now.
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Quoting tropicfreak:
Kudos to NASA. What an accomplishment!
but not the 1s Gro already ate... lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22318
Congrats to the narrator ,asian- american great job for him
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2159
Quoting sunlinepr:
No champagne or Carvernet?
Real quick. Wonder if anyone has thought about it but USA is 16 tril in debt and we are spending billions on exploring a desert planet. Priorities a little out of whack I think.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.