Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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5557. Jedkins01
6:00 PM GMT on August 04, 2012
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7593
5556. wunderkidcayman
5:51 PM GMT on August 04, 2012
anyway guys I expect a TS Watch for Grand Cayman Island sometime this evening ot tonight
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12157
5555. HurricaneHunterJoe
5:29 PM GMT on August 04, 2012
Quoting Patrap:
the pressure falls now from earlier,and Improved appearance overall has shown in the Obs.


Tenacious "E"


RainBowTop


He def got a set!
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
5554. 1928PalmBeach
4:22 PM GMT on August 04, 2012
Its amazing how the graphics are amplifying the picture as opposed to what the hurricane recon guys are seeing. I would like to true that up if possible. Looking at the graphics you would have thought we would have Gilbert forming in 24 hours especially at the location Ernesto is in. Can anyone elaborate on what Gibert's condition was at this exact point AND if early August as opposed to September is why we are seeing conditions in the Caribbean as they are? I don't remeber anyone talking about Sahara dust layer in the 80s and 90s.
Member Since: July 30, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4
5553. yesterway
4:21 PM GMT on August 04, 2012
Please refresh my memory. Dr. Masters does not update his blog on weekends unless there is urgent events in the tropics? Thank you.
Member Since: October 26, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 363
5552. Chicklit
4:21 PM GMT on August 04, 2012
Quoting stormpetrol:
I think what happened to Ernesto, he is has grown significantly in size, this reorganization probably caused a temporary weakening , look for a steady increase in strength down the road.


This also occurred to me. Looks like the HH's were there just as Ernie was reorganizing. Surprised Avila would not mention that possibility in the 11 a.m. Discussion.
" I DO NOT HAVE ANY REASONS FOR THE CURRENT WEAKENING BUT I HAVE NO REASON TO FORECAST ADDITIONAL WEAKENING EITHER."
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11351
5551. bigeasystormcaster
4:17 PM GMT on August 04, 2012
In reviewing satellite imagery and other data it appears that Ernesto was undergoing some northwesterly shear this morning. With it's steady progression to the WNW it appears to now be less influenced by the shear which accounts for the blow up of tstms near the center of the system recently. Also the system appears strong enough to seal out the dry air from it's core and slowly moisten it's environment as it progresses westward. Some modest strengthening is now anticipated.

Looking ahead there is currently a large ULL taking up most of the GOM creating significant shear in the NW Carribean and throughout the gulf. It is forecast to move slowly SW over the next 72 hours. If it does the ULL will be replaced by high pressure rendering the gulf a favorable environment for significant strengthening if Ernesto reaches this area and survives crossing the Yucatan Peninsula if it does. If the ULL remains largely in place, what ever is left of the system once it moves into this area will be torn apart.

Too soon to tell exactly what Ernesto's path will be for the next 72 hours and what it's intensity will be once he reaches the western Carribean. We see no reason why his path should deviate much from the NHCs projected path and we see only modest strengthening during this same time period to possibly minimal hurricane strength.

Will have another update tomorrow morning.
Member Since: July 30, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 109
5550. Tazmanian
4:17 PM GMT on August 04, 2012
recon now finding 80mph fight level winds
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115241
5549. CybrTeddy
4:17 PM GMT on August 04, 2012
Recon picking a lot of hurricane/near hurricane force winds on the SFMR, but this is due to rainrates.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24185
5548. yesterway
4:17 PM GMT on August 04, 2012
Quoting mobileshadow:
An Emily 2005 track looks very likely with Ernesto



Good call. I concur.
Member Since: October 26, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 363
5547. GeorgiaStormz
4:17 PM GMT on August 04, 2012
NEW BLOG
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
5545. SouthDadeFish
4:16 PM GMT on August 04, 2012
Quoting Levi32:


Well the Euro I think is wrong but the GFS does show strengthening west of Jamaica. It goes from 1008mb to 1002mb before hitting the Yucatan. For a global model that is significant. You can't take global models verbatim on tropical cyclone intensity. The point yesterday was that if all the global models agree on no deepening at all in the east-central Caribbean, there is probably something going on in the environment that will prevent significant intensification. Yesterday it was strong accelerating trade winds out ahead of the storm causing too much compensating sinking air.
Well I was more so referencing Ernesto's trek across the Central Caribbean. Conditions appear favorable here as well as the Western Caribbean.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
5544. mobileshadow
4:15 PM GMT on August 04, 2012
An Emily 2005 track looks very likely with Ernesto

Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 183
5543. stormpetrol
4:15 PM GMT on August 04, 2012
Time: 16:04:30Z
Coordinates: 14.0667N 68.35W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.6 mb (~ 24.88 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,577 meters (~ 5,174 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1013.6 mb (~ 29.93 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 181° at 41 knots (From the S at ~ 47.1 mph)
Air Temp: 12.4°C (~ 54.3°F)
Dew Pt: 7.4°C (~ 45.3°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 42 knots (~ 48.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 46 knots (~ 52.9 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 12 mm/hr (~ 0.47 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

Reading of 52mph south of the center, northeast should be 65-70mph imo, just saying...
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7931
5542. GTcooliebai
4:14 PM GMT on August 04, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:


um aint she supposed to die according to the NHC..
Yes I think that was the thinking, due to a set of factors 2 of which were wind shear and dry air.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
5541. Grothar
4:14 PM GMT on August 04, 2012
Quoting altesticstorm2012:
Don't buy Ernesto being a Mexican storm.


If it wasn't it would have been called Ernest.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26499
5540. floridaboy14
4:14 PM GMT on August 04, 2012
Quoting Levi32:


Yes I will have a tidbit. Shear is not an issue for Ernesto.

thank you Levi and is there any reason why ernesto has started moving WNW instead of due west?
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1102
5539. SouthDadeFish
4:14 PM GMT on August 04, 2012
Check out the trough the 12Z GFS is showing at 138 hours over the Great Lakes....



Yet it still keeps a narrow ridge north of the Ernesto to bend Ernesto west...
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
5538. hurricanehunter27
4:14 PM GMT on August 04, 2012
If you showed me just this sat pic I would say we have a borderline hurricane.

But looking at recon I would say a minimal TS so far. From what I was seeing last night I was expecting at least a 60MPH storm.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
5537. ncstorm
4:13 PM GMT on August 04, 2012
Quoting GTcooliebai:
yes ma'am


um aint she supposed to die according to the NHC..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15678
5536. Levi32
4:13 PM GMT on August 04, 2012
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Exactly, so it is somewhat perplexing why the global models are so hesitant to strengthen it. The fact that BOTH the GFS and Euro show relatively little intensification gives me reason to believe them though.


Well the Euro I think is wrong but the GFS does show strengthening west of Jamaica. It goes from 1008mb to 1002mb before hitting the Yucatan. For a global model that is significant. You can't take global models verbatim on tropical cyclone intensity. The point yesterday was that if all the global models agree on no deepening at all in the east-central Caribbean, there is probably something going on in the environment that will prevent significant intensification. Yesterday it was strong accelerating trade winds out ahead of the storm causing too much compensating sinking air.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
5535. stoormfury
4:13 PM GMT on August 04, 2012
while the focus is on Ernesto and the impact it will have in the northwestern caribbean and the conus, the residents of the lesser antilles should look to the eastern atlantic where there are a number of strong tropical waves over africa. which could be a threat this early in the season
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2713
5534. VAbeachhurricanes
4:13 PM GMT on August 04, 2012
Quoting Levi32:


No usually it's a straight shot through the center and then they come back around from the next quadrant over as they do their "X" flight pattern.


hmmm, I knew they usually just go straight through but I always thought they did that intentionally on one pass. Good to know.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6598
5533. RitaEvac
4:12 PM GMT on August 04, 2012
Last fix was 14.4N, if that is the center where I think it is that's a pretty good shift N,

Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
5531. DaytonaBeachWatcher
4:12 PM GMT on August 04, 2012
If you have to continually tell everyone how great you are... you probably arent. Just sayin.
Member Since: June 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1136
5530. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:12 PM GMT on August 04, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
5529. Stormchaser2007
4:12 PM GMT on August 04, 2012
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
5528. GTcooliebai
4:12 PM GMT on August 04, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:
Isnt that florence??

12z GFS
yes ma'am
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
5527. GeorgiaStormz
4:11 PM GMT on August 04, 2012
Quoting Levi32:


It will probably have a much easier time today and tomorrow. Notice the low-level winds directly west of the circulation are a lot slower than they were yesterday. That is a more friendly environment ahead of it.


true, winds were screaming in the caribbean yesterday
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
5526. SouthDadeFish
4:11 PM GMT on August 04, 2012
Quoting Levi32:


It will probably have a much easier time today and tomorrow. Notice the low-level winds directly west of the circulation are a lot slower than they were yesterday. That is a more friendly environment ahead of it.
Exactly, so it is somewhat perplexing why the global models are so hesitant to strengthen it. The fact that BOTH the GFS and Euro show relatively little intensification gives me reason to believe them though.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
5525. reedzone
4:11 PM GMT on August 04, 2012
As I predicted last night, Ernesto may become a Hurricane today (really leaning towards tonight or tomorrow morning), but tonight is still today.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7396
5524. CarolinaHurricanes87
4:10 PM GMT on August 04, 2012
I am not sure why the models seem to have shifted a bit south since yesterday.... seems to contradict the fact that the storm has not weakened in the eastern caribbean (as was expected) and in fact looks like it will be a formidable TS, not an open wave, when S of Jamaica.

Taking all this into account, combined with the current WNW motion (and no explanation for why they expect it to turn back to the W within the next 12 hours), and the center jumping N or NW.... and I think the forecast the NHC gave yesterday was more accurate than the current one.

I am no expert, but I feel like Ernesto is going to cross over only the NE corner of the Yucatan, not go all the way across into the BOC. This would be bad news for the Gulf coast, especially the US coast.

Just a few thoughts from a non-professional weather enthusiast :)
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 631
5523. GTcooliebai
4:10 PM GMT on August 04, 2012
Quoting stormpetrol:
Very complex flight pattern being taken by Recon, at least their equipment is holding up so they can do a thorough investigation.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
5522. Levi32
4:10 PM GMT on August 04, 2012
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


I thought they always looped it on purpose? to get all sides of the COC


No usually it's a straight shot through the center and then they come back around from the next quadrant over as they do their "X" flight pattern.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
5521. ncstorm
4:10 PM GMT on August 04, 2012
Isnt that florence??

12z GFS
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15678
5520. hydrus
4:10 PM GMT on August 04, 2012
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21416
5518. Levi32
4:10 PM GMT on August 04, 2012
Quoting floridaboy14:
thats not good.. Will you have a tidbit today and is the shear over ernesto right now weak? I know dry air from the trade winds has been choking him this morning


Yes I will have a tidbit. Shear is not an issue for Ernesto.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
5517. sunlinepr
4:09 PM GMT on August 04, 2012
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9821
5516. SouthDadeFish
4:09 PM GMT on August 04, 2012
Looking at this visible loop you can really see the whole system starting to wind up. A spin is very evident in the cloud field now, and there is also stronger inflow coming in on the south side of the circulation.

Link
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
5515. VAbeachhurricanes
4:09 PM GMT on August 04, 2012
Quoting Levi32:


They messed up the penetration pretty badly so they had to loop around to get the true center.


I thought they always looped it on purpose? to get all sides of the COC
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6598
5513. Stormchaser2007
4:09 PM GMT on August 04, 2012
Wow...

Recon is finding some very interesting readings finally.

Bunch of contaminated 65kt+, but there appears to be enough for 50-55 knots.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
5512. GeorgiaStormz
4:09 PM GMT on August 04, 2012
Quoting Levi32:
Ernesto's center jumped northwest as well compared to the last recon fix.


probably wasnt the true center they found...but they were close enought to note the wind direction switch
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
5511. 1900hurricane
4:09 PM GMT on August 04, 2012
Quoting Levi32:
Ernesto's center jumped northwest as well compared to the last recon fix.

That's interesting. Looks like the center is pretty close to that notch in the NW portion of the center thunderstorm complex on microwave imagery (with a touch of extrapolation).

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
5510. Levi32
4:09 PM GMT on August 04, 2012
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I would say it is just now entering the Central Caribbean. Many thought it would die in the Eastern Caribbean and that was not the case. Recon found that the pressure is starting to fall again. Satellite presentation looks quite impressive with nice outflow expanding. Conditions may be there now for a strengthening phase. As you like to say "we shall see what happens."


It will probably have a much easier time today and tomorrow. Notice the low-level winds directly west of the circulation are a lot slower than they were yesterday. That is a more friendly environment ahead of it.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
5509. Seflhurricane
4:08 PM GMT on August 04, 2012
Quoting prweatherwatcher:




Agree. Should be a hurricane in 36-48 hrs.. As it apprach the Yucatan peninsula.
likely sooner as it pases Jamaica
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3022
5508. gordydunnot
4:08 PM GMT on August 04, 2012
Is that a big ULL in the gulf? It seems to me that is what beat up 91L. And if it is maybe a player with Ernesto if it doesn't move.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
5507. AussieStorm
4:08 PM GMT on August 04, 2012
Quoting Levi32:


They messed up the penetration pretty badly so they had to loop around to get the true center.


Time: 15:53:30Z
Coordinates: 14.4833N 68.7333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.5 mb (~ 24.91 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,529 meters (~ 5,016 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1004.4 mb (~ 29.66 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 62° at 10 knots (From the ENE at ~ 11.5 mph)
Air Temp: 19.3°C (~ 66.7°F)
Dew Pt: 9.1°C (~ 48.4°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 16 knots (~ 18.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 30 knots* (~ 34.5 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 6 mm/hr* (~ 0.24 in/hr*)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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