Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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oh gosh..
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
84 hours..
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Oh, Lord... blog is about to melt down.
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Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 021413
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT THU 02 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-076

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
TD-05 FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72--
A. 03/1800Z-04/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0305A CYCLONE
C. 03/1630Z
D. 14.0N 61.6W
E. 03/1730Z TO 04/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -TEAL 70-
A. 04/0600, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0405A CYCLONE
C. 04/0500Z
D. 14.6N 64.9W
E. 04/0530Z TO 04/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
WVW
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129853
Quoting CybrTeddy:
We have 91L
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al912012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208031635
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2012, DB, O, 2012080312, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912012
AL, 91, 2012080218, , BEST, 0, 220N, 765W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2012080300, , BEST, 0, 226N, 771W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2012080306, , BEST, 0, 233N, 778W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2012080312, , BEST, 0, 240N, 785W, 20, 1013, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 150, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

I'm not sure how much more the Atlantic can hold.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
We have 91L
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al912012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208031635
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2012, DB, O, 2012080312, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912012
AL, 91, 2012080218, , BEST, 0, 220N, 765W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2012080300, , BEST, 0, 226N, 771W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2012080306, , BEST, 0, 233N, 778W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2012080312, , BEST, 0, 240N, 785W, 20, 1013, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 150, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Well that was fast, wasn't expecting anything until Recon got out there tomorrow, must be because it's in close proximity to land.
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91L!!!!!! 91L!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 91L !!!!!!!!!!!!!:) lol
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Are we going to get 91L soon???



I am inclined to think yes.

4. SUSPECT AREA (OFF EAST COAST OF FLORIDA)
FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 73-
A. 04/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 04/1700Z
D. 28.0N 80.0W
E. 04/1830Z TO 04/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
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Quoting Txrainstorm:
Does wunderground have a app for your phone?

yep. both iPhone and Android.
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When is the next recon into Ernesto?
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All Ernesto really needs to do is fill out this area.

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Quoting ncstorm:
Henry Margusity of Accuweather says to watch the SE coast..

The system along the Southeast has a small chance of development. Sometimes when a tropical wave interacts with an old frontal boundary and thunderstorms get going, a tropical system can spin up rather quickly. It's something we need to watch this weekend. In any case, we may see an increase in thunderstorms in Florida and and along the Southeast coast this weekend.


I would have to agree. Also remember how nice our 1st 2 storms spun up there. It will need to be watched.
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Quoting Txrainstorm:
Does wunderground have a app for your phone?


Indeed..the best available.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129853
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:


I dont understand how they can continue to initialize sooo far off when they should be receiving nearly constant data from the HH, as well as from weather stations at the islands being affected..... The GFS is doing about as badly with Ernesto as it did good with Debby. Don't know who to trust anymore.... but certainly not a model run that doesn't initialize correctly


It's a bit bizzare! GFS had it further south and weaker each of the last 3-4 runs.What is up wit dat?
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..we're gonna need a Bigger Blog..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129853
Does wunderground have a app for your phone?
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Are we going to get 91L soon???
We just got 91L now :)
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GREEN BALL Atlantic

AL91
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129853
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Looking good, nice spin:

This might be the last time Ernesto is this weak until it hits land... this is shaping to be a big, strong storm.
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We have 91L
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al912012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208031635
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2012, DB, O, 2012080312, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912012
AL, 91, 2012080218, , BEST, 0, 220N, 765W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2012080300, , BEST, 0, 226N, 771W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2012080306, , BEST, 0, 233N, 778W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2012080312, , BEST, 0, 240N, 785W, 20, 1013, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 150, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
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633. 892mb
Good Morning all!!
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632. wxmod
Russia is totally covered with thick smoke. These two photos cover an area the size of the USA. MODIS


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Quoting StormTracker2K:
GFS continues to build this system in the Gulf from the Bahamas disturance.




Hey stormtracker, Can you send me the link for this
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Looking good, nice spin:


Lovely Northern outflow too.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Looking good, nice spin:



That is a real tropical storm as opposed to the currently disorganized and sheered mess over the Bahamas..........
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Are we going to get 91L soon???
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Quoting kshipre1:
sorry for the dumb question but is the deep trough shown for Ernesto? Or, you mean for possible upcoming Florence?
No question on the blog is dumb, trust me :) People will be happy to answers it. If the person responding to you is being a jerk, that's likely a troll. Feel free :)
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eyewall slow to come along without a good CDO:


Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
Quoting ncstorm:


still think its consistent?

Still think the CMC and NOGAPS were correct in showing Ernesto going north of the islands?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32836
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, lol.


I dont understand how they can continue to initialize sooo far off when they should be receiving nearly constant data from the HH, as well as from weather stations at the islands being affected..... The GFS is doing about as badly with Ernesto as it did good with Debby. Don't know who to trust anymore.... but certainly not a model run that doesn't initialize correctly
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Quoting jascott1967:


Too early to tell. Anwyhere between Central America to Florida. I'm still thinking Belize


Really? I think that trough will at least tug it N enough to keep it away from there.
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Would be great if Ernesto decides the GFS is going to have an all-star model season and goes out of harms way for the continental. If not, Ernesto enters the Gulf and some not so great things happen. Dry air and moderate sheer only elements keeping Ernesto down, next 72 hours will be crucial in path determination. Ernesto remains a weak TS and I could see the southern route as a real possibility. If in 72 we have a 85-95mph cane then Ernesto shooting the gap or going over Western Cuba is far more likely imo. I'm thinking in 72 hours Ernesto will be pushing between 90-100mph.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Talk about being egg faced. Very possible solution right now. I think that's why the NHC is sending a Recon to check this Bahamas disturbance out.




Don't think it would kill Ernesto as I don't think the Bahamas AOI will develop significantly if it did however, critical to the eventual path of Ernesto in time.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
There's a chance that the storm off coast of Florida is just another blob that people have been freaking out about weeks before Ernesto finally formed. Just saying.
It will be interesting to see how this evolves.
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Quoting Jrrtrollkien:


You are nothing more than a bully. You have the worst attitude I have ever encountered.


Please dont quote, i prefer to keep the ignored in POOF-dom. :)
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Why has the GFS been all wrong on the initialization of Ernesto the last3-4 runs?
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Looking good, nice spin:

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There's a chance that the storm off coast of Florida is just another blob that people have been freaking out about weeks before Ernesto finally formed. Just saying.
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Quoting 954FtLCane:


This is from this cell. About ready to hit here any minute.
..wow look at that sky..thanks for the pic..stay safe ok
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42148
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Bahamas AOI has what it needs to organize, never know.




Shear increasing over Bahama blob
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Quoting kshipre1:
sorry for the dumb question but is the deep trough shown for Ernesto? Or, you mean for possible upcoming Florence?


No need to apologize for asking a question... and no question is dumb. If you are trying to learn, that is smart, regardless of what kind of a-hole responses you may receive from people on a message board who have little-man syndrome. I think the answer to your question is Ernesto
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Damm this is different if Ernesto can survive the next few days. Notice the deep trough on the 12Z GFS.



Meaning a turn nw or north?
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Quoting tamipeach:
Hi,
I don't post a lot but I have a question if you please.

On the other blog, someone had posted a TWO that mentioned something about the wave that is crossing Florida this weekend possibly organizing...

I had to go take some photos for a class and when I came back to read there was a new blog :(

Can someone give me the short version of what that might be? Is there a possibility of it developing into anything? thanks in advance:)
..they should know tomorrow after the NHC plane gets the readings..so far its sure looking possible
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42148

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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