Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
!!!!!!!!!!!!


KATRINAAA!!!

SARCASM FLAG___ON!!!!!
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Computer Models:

05L (Ernesto):



90L:



91L:

N/A
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Anyone wanna join the chat? This blog will be flooded with people from Florida.
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The Atlantic is becoming Active like the WPac was this week the Eastern pacific is still sleeping. If the two Aois develop we may be talking About Ernesto, Florence and Gordon.
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126 hours GFS. Trough not to deep.
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701. emguy
91L is a wild card. Development or not, the SW side of the Bermuda High is going to be erroded a little further than expected. This definately enhances the overall weakness over the eastern gulf.
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Quoting Patrap:


Indeed..the best available.


Found it!
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The NAM has been on this Bahamas AOI for days.
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!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Wow...

Ernesto, 90L, 91L

I'm glad i came back at this moment, July was so quiet.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
My forecast for Ernesto:



It's more in line with the LGEM, SHIPS, and other statistical models which show rapid intensification after the same enters the NW Caribbean. I believe a stronger strong will tend to move more poleward and feel the "tug" of the trough that should be located over the East USA at that time.
i agree on your track although stegthen wise i see it becoming a hurricane southWEST of jamaica and i see it becoming a major BEFORE it enters the gulf
Member Since: July 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1102
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1245 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

FLZ072-074-031715-
METRO BROWARD COUNTY FL METROPOLITAN MIAMI DADE FL
1245 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BROWARD COUNTY
NORTHEASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY

* UNTIL 115 PM EDT

* AT 1241 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PINES BLVD
AND UNIVERSITY DRIVE TO MIAMI LAKES. THESE STORMS WERE NEARLY
STATIONARY.

* THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT...
MIAMI LAKES...
MIAMI GARDENS...
MIRAMAR PARKWAY AND UNIVERSITY DRIVE...
NORTH PERRY AIRPORT...
CAROL CITY...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH...UP
TO NICKEL-SIZED HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF
THESE ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2604 8019 2584 8025 2587 8035 2608 8032
TIME...MOT...LOC 1645Z 297DEG 2KT 2600 8025 2588 8031

$$
KOB
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39264
Quoting jeffs713:

Oh, I know... but with all of the kids out of school, and wishcasters in FL... It is only a matter of time until it is compared to something completely illogical.


It's still baroclinic from the nearby ULL so some folks are getting thrown off by all the displaced convection to the NE (result of sheer) over the Northern Bahamas.

However, if you look at the guidance message for the invest, they are looking further south between the Keys and the Southern Bahamas at the moment. Time to keep an eye on the buoys in that direction; the Hunters will give us a better picture tomorrow as to any possible low that may form down there.
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Quoting LargoFl:



wow, the ensembles no follow the operational..throws a kink in everything..
Im still not following the GFS for now
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
That is actually just off the Palm Beach coast. Correction, the plane fix is, 91L is further SE


Is this moving fast? or slow?

Because that "spot" is where Katrina formed and is known to be a cradle for Storms.
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Quoting BrickellBreeze:


What is off the coast?

It was clear with no clouds in the sky, and then huge thunderstorm clouds at 10:30 am in the morning, werid for South Florida.



The recon fix for tomorrow. 91L is further SE at the moment.
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Quoting LargoFl:
..wow look at that sky..thanks for the pic..stay safe ok

Thanks. I am. Not too bad so far just heavy rain and lots of thunder/lightning. As soon as I read your post I looked outside and there she was.
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Quoting Tribucanes:
91L is here, Skyepony was talking quite a bit about this area last night. She hinted it was an area to watch today. She's one sharp cookie like many if not most of you here. Yellow circle to be replaced by orange here very soon?


you might want to read back in the previous blogs..Skye wasnt the only one mentioning the wave..
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Are we gonna break the WU blog again like we did when Ernesto was named? LOL


why dont we go break weather chat?
Link
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I wish they'd get 90L's floater up.
I think they are just now getting a floater up on it Link
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
That is actually just off the Palm Beach coast.


What is off the coast?

It was clear with no clouds in the sky, and then huge thunderstorm clouds at 10:30 am in the morning, werid for South Florida.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39264
Quoting Pocamocca:

Can hear em comin' already. Like a stampede.


Yep. I'll be back later to see the latest developments. For now I'll avoid the stampede and what is sure to be 100's of reposts on the 2 o clock update. Happy Friday everyone!
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Tomorrow!!!:)
4. SUSPECT AREA (OFF EAST COAST OF FLORIDA)
FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 73-
A. 04/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 04/1700Z
D. 28.0N 80.0W
E. 04/1830Z TO 04/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
My forecast for Ernesto:



It's more in line with the LGEM, SHIPS, and other statistical models which show rapid intensification after the same enters the NW Caribbean. I believe a stronger strong will tend to move more poleward and feel the "tug" of the trough that should be located over the East USA at that time.


Seems reasonable to me.
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Quoting hydrus:
Henry and I agree on a forecast...


No wonder its storming here in SE NC..H&H agree:)
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My forecast for Ernesto:



It's more in line with the LGEM, SHIPS, and other statistical models which show rapid intensification after the same enters the NW Caribbean. I believe a stronger strong will tend to move more poleward and feel the "tug" of the trough that should be located over the East USA at that time.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32277
Miami
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 248 NMI



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
Quoting ncstorm:
Henry Margusity of Accuweather says to watch the SE coast..

The system along the Southeast has a small chance of development. Sometimes when a tropical wave interacts with an old frontal boundary and thunderstorms get going, a tropical system can spin up rather quickly. It's something we need to watch this weekend. In any case, we may see an increase in thunderstorms in Florida and and along the Southeast coast this weekend.
Henry and I agree on a forecast...
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


It's a bit bizzare! GFS had it further south and weaker each of the last 3-4 runs.What is up wit dat?


Not sure how that is possible when the HH are providing so much data so often. If the GFS initialized correctly and then killed the wave/took it into central america, that'd be one thing. But when the position AND intensity are not initialized correctly, the runs might as well be thrown out..... meaning the Euro and GFS have been completely useless for many of their recent runs
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91L is here, Skyepony was talking quite a bit about this area last night. She hinted it was an area to watch today. She's one sharp cookie like many if not most of you here. Yellow circle to be replaced by orange here very soon?
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675. emguy
Models like the GFS are likely having a hard time iniiallizing Enresto due to his very compact nature. Even on the high resolution (fine mesh grids), he may be compact enought that the models just can't depict the closed low correctly.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
All Ernesto really needs to do is fill out this area.


Maybe that is what everyone thinks in an "eye"? IDK
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:


They had to call it with the proximity to land....

Oh, I know... but with all of the kids out of school, and wishcasters in FL... It is only a matter of time until it is compared to something completely illogical.
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Beware the Anti-Post fer sure,
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
Are we gonna break the WU blog again like we did when Ernesto was named? LOL
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.............................wow LOOK at those storms in south Florida
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39264
That is actually just off the Palm Beach coast. Correction, the plane fix is, 91L is further SE
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Damm this is different if Ernesto can survive the next few days. Notice the deep trough on the 12Z GFS.




If Ernesto enters the GOM as a TS/CAT will the trough suck it up to the Central GOM??
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Quoting jeffs713:
Oh, Lord... blog is about to melt down.


They had to call it with the proximity to land....
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The Atlantic is smoking!
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
We just got 91L now :)


So I can appear smart like you guys, what websites are you using to get this information from?
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I wish they'd get 90L's floater up.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
eyewall slow to come along without a good CDO:



It's developing alright.
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The HH Recon info is on the menu, left side of the NHC home Page.

..Aircraft recon
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
One tropical storm with chance to be a major, one invest with a chance to be a tropical storm, and one invest with a chance to make the differences for TS Ernesto. And it's only August 3rd. Hurricane season is about to kick into the high gears, folks!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Still think the CMC and NOGAPS were correct in showing Ernesto going north of the islands?


technically..Ernesto hasnt passed any islands yet..he can still go north at some point but that wasnt my question..I ask if you still thought it was consistent?? You bash the other models and held the GFS up like He-Man's Sword but its failing too..so do you think its consistent? oh and I never said the NOGAPS or the CMC were the best models like you did the GFS, I just asked you guys to give it some credit because it has nailed some storms according to Doug's squirrel..
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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