Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Hey 91L are you enjoying FL lol
...gee just LOOK at the storms its throwing at the east coast of florida..and all the way up to daytona too
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36669
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Ernesto may want to come and visit you in Texas...

Nah, we're good.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The only effect 91L will have on Ernesto is that, if it becomes a storm, it will erode the high and allow for a slightly more north movement of our current TS.



REALLY good westerly outflow. Well ventilated system.
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I bet Dr.M is hammering out a Aft update.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127377
Quoting jeffs713:

I knew it wouldn't take long...

K formed quite a bit further east (SE end of the Bahamas), and in a markedly different environment.


Ernesto may want to come and visit you in Texas...
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744.

Why NOLA, and not Pensacola, Mobile, Houston, Corpus Christi, or Brownsville?
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36669
ZOOM and Boxes are active
91L Long Floater - RGB Color Imagery Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127377
Hey 91L are you enjoying FL lol
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Quoting Tribucanes:
How many in Florida have any idea this is possibly developing? This was not on the agenda today for anyone almost. Hope this doesn't materialize.
I has been posting about this wave developing for days now!!,since it was near Puerto Rico & the Dominican Republic,when you see a persistent area of bad weather in this location this time of year,we must better keep a eye on it,it looks very impressive today!!!.
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:



Wastes no time strengthening, sheesh.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Has about 24 to 36hrs.


24-36 Hrs on Water? how it's right of the coast?

Weak steering?
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12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Ernesto

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127377
Lengthy update, enjoy!
Tropical Storm Ernesto, Invest 90L, Invest 91L all worth watching - 8/3/12
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23505
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The only effect 91L will have on Ernesto is that, if it becomes a storm, it will erode the high and allow for a slightly more north movement of our current TS.

Do you think it will develop?
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 3958
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Tomorrow!!!:)
4. SUSPECT AREA (OFF EAST COAST OF FLORIDA)
FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 73-
A. 4/1900Z0
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 04/1700Z
D. 28.0N 80.0W
E. 04/1830Z TO 04/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

When would this be?
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Multiple cookies for you too then ncstorm. :) Was gone to a conference last few days. Only got back in last evening. Early in the morning, like 2AM Skye was talking about it. If you or anyone else prognosticated about this wave's possible development then that's awesome too; unless it develops, then your all being held responsible. :)
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Wow, 91L's floater is up already:

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732. 7544
Quoting Tribucanes:
How many in Florida have any idea this is possibly developing? This was not on the agenda today for anyone almost. Hope this doesn't materialize.


largo gt hydrus and me lol we called it from this am oh and the no good as some say nogaps for 2 days now
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Did Ernesto take a S jog?
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2290
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

He's referring to the ECMWF and GFS. I sent him a tweet telling him they had initiation issues.


Good idea. Because people need to be aware that this could possibly become a dangerous situation...and him reporting suspect information is a problem.
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The only effect 91L will have on Ernesto is that, if it becomes a storm, it will erode the high and allow for a slightly more north movement of our current TS.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31339
Quoting Tribucanes:
How many in Florida have any idea this is possibly developing? This was not on the agenda today for anyone almost. Hope this doesn't materialize.
..sure looks like something just might..waiting for the plane and its report tomorrow
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36669
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
!!!!!!!!!!!!


How about Tropical Thunderstorm Bonnie 2: Florence Edition!
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
The NAM has been on this Bahamas AOI for days.
would be a big win if it develops for that model.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 3958
Quoting AllStar17:
Carl Parker: "The most recent model trends take it farther south."

Am I missing something?

He's referring to the ECMWF and GFS. I sent him a tweet telling him they had initiation issues.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31339
Quoting RedHedFred:


You want a cookie!


Yeah..Pillsbury..chocolate chip..hustle up in the kitchen and make some..
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Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Is this moving fast? or slow?

Because that "spot" is where Katrina formed and is known to be a cradle for Storms.


Has about 24 to 36hrs.
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
!!!!!!!!!!!!


Interesting timeframe there. BAMS seems to have the invest going to the upper Texas coast at roughly the same time Ernesto might as well. Is the BAM suite run against each system individually, and therefore this run would not know anything about Ernesto? I think that is true.
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Remember to breathe folks.
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from the 4am tampa area, this might change to some stronger wording tomorrow huh.....................DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND MOVE ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TUESDAY WITH NUMEROUS
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT OVER
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A DECREASE IN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36669
Carl Parker: "The most recent model trends take it farther south."

Am I missing something?
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718. 7544
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



The recon fix for tomorrow. 91L is further SE at the moment.


did i miss something wheres 91L i ask earlier today when will we see it i just got back
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Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Is this moving fast? or slow?

Because that "spot" is where Katrina formed and is known to be a cradle for Storms.

I knew it wouldn't take long...

K formed quite a bit further east (SE end of the Bahamas), and in a markedly different environment.
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How many in Florida have any idea this is possibly developing? This was not on the agenda today for anyone almost. Hope this doesn't materialize.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Anyone wanna join the chat? This blog will be flooded with people from Florida.


Problem?

This Blog is for Everyone, we are watching three area's in the Atlantic.

90L

Ernesto

91L

Feel free to post about any of the three, but respect others, just as your mother taught you.
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
!!!!!!!!!!!!


Have a Fresca.
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Quoting Patrap:
Miami
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 248 NMI





another spinner heading for the gom soup ?
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
!!!!!!!!!!!!
..........oh boy, right over my house
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36669
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Quoting allancalderini:
The Atlantic is becoming Active like the WPac was this week the Eastern pacific is still sleeping. If the two Aois develop we may be talking About Ernesto, Florence and Gordon.
That would put us at 7 storms, half way to the latest prediction of 14 storms by Colorado State.
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
!!!!!!!!!!!!


KATRINAAA!!!

SARCASM FLAG___ON!!!!!
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.