Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting unknowncomic:
getting nasty here near 91l green sky?


Pretty! Love the name, BTW.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tribucanes:
91L, looking at the invest numbers, is seemingly likely to develop and do it quickly. Off to call many of my oblivious to the weather and climate family members who live in Florida. Folks were in the southern eye-wall of Beryl and it was their first tropical interaction ever. Needless to say they now have less than a healthy fear.



dont over scare them, this is likely to be nothing
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
Quoting angiest:


The one in the Gulf isn't Ernesto, is it?


Yeah..it takes it into the BOC..
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Quoting jeffs713:
777. I'd hardly call an invest a "landfalling storm". Also, I've yet to see your rationale for Ernesto making landfall in CFL. "a gut feeling" and "extrapolated model position" don't count.


Relax, here take another Beer.
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Wind shear forecast for 91L below. It is currently encountering unfavorable values, but these should lower.

SHEAR (KT) 24 15 16 9 7 9 8 12 11 12 4 10 18
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I'm not seeing a COC with 91L. Can anyone see the COC? I'm not very good at seeing those things initially.
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..yup, def gonna need a Bigger blog.

:)
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
looking at rgb loop for ernesto the COC is located at 14.0N 62.9W moving N of due W
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799. 7544
Quoting Tribucanes:
91L, looking at the invest numbers, is seemingly likely to develop and do it quickly. Off to call many of my oblivious to the weather and climate family members who live in Florida. Folks were in the southern eye-wall of Beryl and it was their first tropical interaction ever. Needless to say they now have less than a healthy fear.


but where will it go what time will see the models for this one
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Quoting allancalderini:
would be a big win if it develops for that model.


Yes indeed. It is good at times with undeveloped areas.

Had a feeling about this wave to keep an eye on it once it reached the Bahamas.
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Quoting ncstorm:
12z GFS..long range






The one in the Gulf isn't Ernesto, is it?
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Quoting Jeff9645:
Me tinks we could have an August Trio of landfalling storms back to back to back. 91L, Ernesto and Florence. So far CFL looks like the target for the first two storms, could we be the recipients of a triple whammy?!?!?! folks this could be a repeat of 2004/2005!!!

Relax bro there all not going to fl LOL!!
Member Since: June 4, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 767
91L, looking at the invest numbers, is seemingly likely to develop and do it quickly. Off to call many of my oblivious to the weather and climate family members who live in Florida. Folks were in the southern eye-wall of Beryl and it was their first tropical interaction ever. Needless to say they now have less than a healthy fear.
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Sure doesn't seem like an El Niño year to me.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Not bad.


Florence
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getting nasty here near 91l green sky?
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777. I'd hardly call an invest a "landfalling storm". Also, I've yet to see your rationale for Ernesto making landfall in CFL. "a gut feeling" and "extrapolated model position" don't count.
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.....gee east coast plse listen to your local warnings
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788. 7544
91L steals the spotlight from ernesto
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12z HWRF I wouldn't be surprised to see Tropical Storm Watches go up for Jamaica later today into tonight.

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Quoting Jeff9645:
Me tinks we could have an August Trio of landfalling storms back to back to back. 91L, Ernesto and Florence. So far CFL looks like the target for the first two storms, could we be the recipients of a triple whammy?!?!?! folks this could be a repeat of 2004/2005!!!


Here Have a Beer.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Q.What will 90L and 91L be at 2PM.
90L
A.30%
B.40%
C.50%
D.60%

Q.91L
A.10%
B.20%
C.30%
D.40%
E.50%
1B40%... 2 C30%
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12z GFS..long range




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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Q.What will 90L and 91L be at 2PM.
90L
A.30%
B.40%
C.50%
D.60%

Q.91L
A.10%
B.20%
C.30%
D.40%
E.50%
B for 90L and A for 91L.
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Q.What will 90L and 91L be at 2PM.
90L
A.30%
B.40%
C.50%
D.60%

Q.91L
A.10%
B.20%
C.30%
D.40%
E.50%


90L:C
91L:B
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Quoting allancalderini:
Do you think it will develop?

It has a chance. I'd give it 30% at 2PM EDT and then 50% for Invest 90L (to answer the poll).
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Not bad.


I'd go with 50 or 60%.
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Cmc following the gfs
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Me tinks we could have an August Trio of landfalling storms back to back to back. 91L, Ernesto and Florence. So far CFL looks like the target for the first two storms, could we be the recipients of a triple whammy?!?!?! folks this could be a repeat of 2004/2005!!!
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Quoting floridaboy14:
91L is giving me severe weather :O
..yes warnings out
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Not bad.
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Quoting jeffs713:
Oh, Lord... blog is about to melt down.


It's a good thing!!
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Quoting jascott1967:


So in your mind it isn't appropriate to discuss past hurricanes/storms, how they have affected us and also we shouldn't prognosticate on future storms? What should we talk about on this blog, then?
No, I just want people to realize that a lot of us are on here because of our losses or past experiences with storms. Since there are active storms in the Atlantic Basin, it should be limited to forecasts. I guess it does kinda sound like what you are inferring. Sorry. Prognosticate away!
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91L is giving me severe weather :O
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At 2PM I bet we see 90L go to 40% and 91L go to 30%.
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Quoting 7544:


largo gt hydrus and me lol we called it from this am oh and the no good as some say nogaps for 2 days now
I also said that Florida will have two more tropical cyclones before the season is over. I may actually have to up that number.
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ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1255 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 130 PM EDT

* AT 1250 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
CAROL CITY. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
CAROL CITY...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE VERY STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58
MPH...LARGE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. STAY
INSIDE AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM. IF
OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES AND
AVOID WATER. MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE IF POSSIBLE. AVOID
USING THE TELEPHONE UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG
UNNECESSARY ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.



LAT...LON 2595 8021 2582 8024 2587 8038 2595 8033
TIME...MOT...LOC 1655Z 297DEG 2KT 2594 8029



KOB
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Q.What will 90L and 91L be at 2PM.
90L
A.30%
B.40%
C.50%
D.60%

Q.91L
A.10%
B.20%
C.30%
D.40%
E.50%
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4898
Quoting Patrap:
ZOOM and Boxes are active
91L Long Floater - RGB Color Imagery Loop

Thanks for the link. Nicely disorganized though.
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Quoting 69Viking:


Seems to be moving South of the forecast points when you overlay them on the RGB satellite.


Seems right on track to me.
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Man the bouys folks for the next few days. Here is the link the National Bouy data center; just click the internal link for Gulfof Mexico-East/Florida and that will get you in the pocket for monitoring 91L in the coming days (for buoys near the system). Note that some bouys might be out for servicing.

You are Welcome................Link
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
763. 7544
models runs for 91l will go west nnw nw ne nne wnw take your pick ill say wnw
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Quoting Patrap:
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Ernesto

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts



Pretty much every single dynamical model shows Ernesto taking a rather sharp NW turn at the end of the forecast period.
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Quoting Articuno:
Did Ernesto take a S jog?


Seems to be moving South of the forecast points when you overlay them on the RGB satellite.
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the 12z CMC...ernesto 120 hours
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whens next recon go wheels up on ernesto? 230?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The only effect 91L will have on Ernesto is that, if it becomes a storm, it will erode the high and allow for a slightly more north movement of our current TS.

My sentiments exactly, but that jog to the north could make a huge difference in the potential impact Ernesto has on the U.S. I am not liking what I see right now. Especially if i lived in Texas.
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Hey 91L are you enjoying FL lol
...gee just LOOK at the storms its throwing at the east coast of florida..and all the way up to daytona too
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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