Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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I am looking forward to Angela's afternoon update :)
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How can we trust the GFS and EURO at this time when they can't even get the initialization of TS Ernesto correct?? Please.......Anybody?
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91L is in a good position to be a quick spinner.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4976
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Indeed, tornado's could become a threat overnight depending on how quick this gets going.


How many hours does this have over water?

Because it appears to be right off the coast.
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Quoting ilovehurricanes13:
NEW UPDATE AT 2PM invest 90L WILL GO UP!


Might be TD 6 by now Who knows?
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
111 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

FLC086-031730-
/O.CON.KMFL.SV.W.0131.000000T0000Z-120803T1730Z/
MIAMI-DADE FL-
111 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...

AT 107 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CAROL CITY THIS STORM
WAS NEARLY STATIONARY. A MEMBER OF THE PUBLIC REPORTED PEA-SIZED
HAIL NEAR HIALEAH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE VERY STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58
MPH...LARGE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. STAY
INSIDE AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...NEARLY CONTINUOUS
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 2595 8021 2582 8024 2587 8038 2595 8033
TIME...MOT...LOC 1711Z 297DEG 2KT 2594 8028

$$
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GeorgiaStormz for sure, just making them aware. They're always out on my Dad's motorcycle and they are right at the age of 70; just a heads up to em'. The track is what is concerning to me. Louisiana going to be getting a weak TS possibly. What's stopping 91L from developing more quickly than what is projected currently when it gets to the Gulf? GeorgiaStormz, I do disagree with you. You say this is likely to be nothing. Too early to tell that. Hope your right, but I think 91L will be named before all is said and done, and if 91L makes the Gulf as a storm Louisiana will be getting some much needed rain and hopefully nothing more.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Andros


LOL
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848. TXCWC
Any thoughts on why the usually more reliable models(such as GFS) continue to initialize Ernesto incorrectly? 50mph 1002mb tropical storm is very different from a 1009 depression/wave.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Alright...who flipped the switch?

Sorry couldn't see where I was going :P
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845. yoboi
Quoting 7544:
91L steals the spotlight from ernesto


91 is looking better an better
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Alright...who flipped the switch?



Are you sure Dr. Masters didn't go on a secret vacation? We all know what happens then.
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Whoa.. did NOT expect to be under a yellow crayon.

anyways Nassau has been relatively dry from 9am till now. Cumulus just starting to grow again though, so I'd expect some storms here in about an hour or so!

90L formed today? Gee, was I scuba diving that long?! xD

Ernesto is surviving as well?!?! Who said it would be this active?! I want suspects.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Alright...who flipped the switch?



That looks pretty accurate to me but may need to be adjusted to the south some
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Quoting emguy:
91L is a wild card. Development or not, the SW side of the Bermuda High is going to be erroded a little further than expected. This definately enhances the overall weakness over the eastern gulf.


Thanks EM Guy,,I always like your input,it seems well thought out and makes sense to me most of the time....Thanks again..........keep it coming.
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Quoting Jeff9645:
I give 91L a 99% chance of crossing FL. The missing 1% is because i dont even see a COC yet.


Andros
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Alright...who flipped the switch?

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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128616
834. yoboi
Quoting 7544:


but where will it go what time will see the models for this one


models are out west bound RI
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My best guess would put the center of Ernesto right at the confluence of the southeastern edge of the new firing thunderstorms and the older convection.

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Quoting Tribucanes:
How many in Florida have any idea this is possibly developing? This was not on the agenda today for anyone almost. Hope this doesn't materialize.


Have south/central florida been wet or dry since Debby....maybe they need some rain from 91L?
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12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Ernesto

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128616
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Q.What will 90L and 91L be at 2PM.
90L
A.30%
B.40%
C.50%
D.60%

Q.91L
A.10%
B.20%
C.30%
D.40%
E.50%

90L D
91L B

Quoting GTcooliebai:
12z HWRF I wouldn't be surprised to see Tropical Storm Watches go up for Jamaica later today into tonight.



maybe and Hurricane watches Sat afternoon
and TS watches for Cayman Islands
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Looks like the forecast track for ernesto is very likely to chabge since we now have 91L near andros island in the bahamas. 91L is likely to erode the bermuda high and create a weakness in the eastern gulf of mexico which the GFDL and cmc have been picking up so i would not be surprised if the computer models begin to shift towards the nw and ne towards the florida straights and florida. thats what i see right now
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Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Here Have a Beer.
Heard that Ernesto had a couple of PITON beers in Santa Lucía
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Quoting stormchaser19:


How certain is this, because a hurricane is hitting PR and DR in this run


Nothing is certain when it comes to the models unfortunately..just keep watching and heeding your local officials
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12z HWRF 72 hrs. Nigel20 heads up!

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825. Relix
Quoting stormchaser19:


How certain is this, because a hurricane is hitting PR and DR in this run


As certain as any model running long range and without any center to lock on... very low. You should know this by now guys :P!
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..................wow..check out this radar...like the storms are encircling an area of south florida
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ZOOM and Boxes are active
Ernesto Long Floater - RGB Color Imagery Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128616
Quoting tatoprweather:
Hey NC, I live in PR. Should we start worrying?


Just be prepared thats all any of us can do..we are in the thick of hurricane season now..
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12Z CMC seems to have shifted further south with Ernesto
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819. BDAwx
I would say Ernesto is having more trouble with dry air than wind shear. The convective structure is less than impressive being shallow and dubious at best; collapsing frequently and sending out outflow boundaries - which, combined with its relatively high forward speed, is not helping it organize. If you asked me, any signature resembling an eye-wall has been gone for a while. The low level circulation is small but respectably well defined. With poorly organized weak-moderate convection, Ernesto is more vulnerable to wind shear.
I see Ernesto trying to pick things up in 4-5 days, but it will probably stay weak and disorganized until then; I don't see steady strengthening, just a maintenance of intensity.
Biggest threat with Ernesto right now seems to be from the outflow boundaries and the gusts that come with them, then any side effects from heavy rain. That could still be enough to cause damage and be life threatening.
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Quoting ncstorm:
12z GFS..long range






How certain is this, because a hurricane is hitting PR and DR in this run
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Quoting ncstorm:
12z GFS..long range




Hey NC, I live in PR. Should we start worrying?
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Ernesto structure seems to be improving.



Just needs more convection to fire over the center.
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12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest90

Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128616
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:


Not sure how that is possible when the HH are providing so much data so often. If the GFS initialized correctly and then killed the wave/took it into central america, that'd be one thing. But when the position AND intensity are not initialized correctly, the runs might as well be thrown out..... meaning the Euro and GFS have been completely useless for many of their recent runs


Does anyone know why the 2 Best Models have melted down the last 4 runs???
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Quoting hydrus:
My sentiments exactly, but that jog to the north could make a huge difference in the potential impact Ernesto has on the U.S. I am not liking what I see right now. Especially if i lived in Texas.


When there's a storm brewing that might pose a threat to us I post forecast charts or model plots on my cube. I wonder when someone will notice that I have two different ones up now.
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SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1254 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

FLZ043-049-051-052-055>057-060-061-031800-
SUMTER-PASCO-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-MANATEE-HARDEE-HIG HLANDS-SARASOTA-
DE SOTO-
1254 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

.NOW...
THROUGH 2 PM...A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR MULBERRY...MYAKKA CITY...HAINES CITY
AND SEBRING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP CAN HAVE DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.
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Just as hot today--in fact, hotter in some spots--as it was yesterday at noon across Oklahoma (though the bulk of the blob appears to have shifted to the southwest):

hot
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13549
Quoting LargoFl:
.....gee east coast plse listen to your local warnings



Indeed, tornado's could become a threat overnight depending on how quick this gets going.
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Poll:

Q: Who will be named Florence?
A:90L
B:91L
C:Wave behind 90L
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The current activity in the Atlantic reminds me of some of the lyrics to an old Talking Heads tune:


This ain't no party, this ain't no disco
This ain't no fooling around
No time for dancing, or lovey dovey
I ain't got time for that now



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Quoting unknowncomic:
getting nasty here near 91l green sky?


Pretty! Love the name, BTW.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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