Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.

Jeff Masters

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this could be very bad for GOM
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Oh look, 91L is the next Katrina!!! Watch out...

Sarcasm Flag: ON
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904. 7544
Quoting LargoFl:
............................GEEZ..south Florida is getting Hammered


flood warnings are up for miami and broward so far
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Quoting BrickellBreeze:


90L = Florence

Then

91L = G Storm

Gordon.
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Quoting Jeff9645:
Hmm well this may be a our only burst of storms this year as i expect a strong El Nino to be in place by September! Folk we should enjoy these storms now because after this we may be in for a big slowdown, expect the season to end by October!


I noticed before that the members were showing more on the higher side or above the black line now a good amount has it on the lower side or below the black line
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


How many hours does this have over water?

Because it appears to be right off the coast.


Recon fix tomorrow 3pm

. SUSPECT AREA (OFF EAST COAST OF FLORIDA)
FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 73-
A. 04/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 04/1700Z
D. 28.0N 80.0W
E. 04/1830Z TO 04/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Convection is wrapping into 91L from the east. Could have a quick spin up here. Florence may not be that far away folks.

Link


90L = Florence

Then

91L = G Storm
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Ya Yoboi that's for sure, referring to the rest of Louisiana which is in need. Would be nice if a TS pushed moisture northward too, it's desperately needed to say the least.
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Quoting LargoFl:
............................GEEZ..south Florida is getting Hammered


C FL is as well lightning is going crazy here in Volusia County.

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895. TXCWC
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
How can we trust the GFS and EURO at this time when they can't even get the initialization of TS Ernesto correct?? Please.......Anybody?


We can't fully trust them right now - hence NHC not following them with their official track and intensity forecast
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893. 7544
Quoting BrickellBreeze:




thanks hmmmm the nogaps were right all along guess we wront hear the phase well it the nogaps lol
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Have south/central florida been wet or dry since Debby....maybe they need some rain from 91L?


South FL has been pretty dry. Nice change today from the last couple of weeks. Not sure about central FL.
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Convection is wrapping into 91L from the east. Could have a quick spin up here. Florence may not be that far away folks.

Link
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Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

Looks better than Ernesto

but its not a ts though yet!!
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Quoting Jeff9645:


Yeah I totally agree that a newly initiated invest that has barely any t-storms associated with it will have a much higher impact than a hurricane that enters the Gulf of Mexixo through the gap between Cuba and the Yucatan.


Seems Legit.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Yeah...this probably deserves Code Red.

have you seen its vorticity? its spin is GREAT for a wave
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Quoting Jeff9645:
Hmm well this may be a our only burst of storms this year as i expect a strong El Nino to be in place by September! Folk we should enjoy these storms now because after this we may be in for a big slowdown, expect the season to end by October!



Lol, October usually is very quiet
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............................GEEZ..south Florida is getting Hammered
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Yeah...this probably deserves Code Red.


Looks better than Ernesto
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
HWRF 84 hrs. looks like it has shifted to the right.


I geuss I better get my self prepared
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
Quoting BrickellBreeze:



Wow I did not realize it was that far south!
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Yeah...this probably deserves Code Red.

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Quoting ncstorm:
the 12z NOGAPS..



Good track, but is NOGAPS
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kannst du bitte zeigen sie uns ... Grothar?

Come on! I used German :)
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878. TXCWC
Storm area coverage on Ernesto appears to be expanding the last few frames on the IR Rainbow loop. Link
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Quoting 7544:
are the speghhti models out for 91l yet tia


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....................they UPPED the rain chances for the Tampa Bay area now
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Quoting floridaboy14:
Two Questions
Where will Ernesto go
1. Will Ernesto go northern yucatan, yucatan channel
2. yucatan, mexico

Quesion 2
Do you want a tidbit from Levi to update us on the tropics?
1. yes
2. no

My answers are 1 and 1


1,1 for me too
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look at the radar looks like ernesto had fully compleated the eyewall and on sat convection is poping up

I think 90L will be a red marker with either 60% or 70%

90L I say 20%
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
I think 91L will have a bigger impact across FL and the Gulf Coast US than Ernesto ever will. This is one to watch folks. 91L is much bigger than Ernesto is as well.

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870. 7544
are the speghhti models out for 91l yet tia
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WFO Houston forecast discussion from early this morning (not sure why there's no update yet):

.MARINE...
FOR THE MOST PART...IT LOOKS LIKE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. S/SWLY WINDS TODAY WILL
BE SHIFTING TO THE E/SE LATE SUN/MON AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES A BIT
NORTH. THE PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALSO HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHCS WITH
S/WV ACTIVITY APPROACHING FROM THE EAST (UNDER THE RIDGE). MARINERS
SHOULD ALSO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO. 00Z
FCSTS ARE INDICATING THAT THE SYSTEM MIGHT BRING IMPACTS TO THE UPR
TX COASTAL WATERS LATE NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED! 41
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HWRF 84 hrs. looks like it has shifted to the right.

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Two Questions
Where will Ernesto go
1. Will Ernesto go northern yucatan, yucatan channel
2. yucatan, mexico

Quesion 2
Do you want a tidbit from Levi to update us on the tropics?
1. yes
2. no

My answers are 1 and 1
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No bouys to speak off at all near where the center of 91L has been initiated so we wil have to rely on the Hunters for the best information.

However (the closest bouy), I need to report that air pressure is rising at Freeport and winds are gusting to 1 knot:

Station SPGF1
NDBC
Location: 26.704N 78.994W
Date: Fri, 3 Aug 2012 17:00:00 UTC

Winds: at 0.0 kt gusting to 1.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.02 in and rising
Air Temperature: 79.7 F
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I have the early models for 91L.
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HurricaneHunterJoe yeah Southern Florida could use the rain for sure.
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Storms are firing very fast here in C FL today.

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Can't even keep up... finish one page and get two more to read. Great information all... keep it coming!
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Quoting TXCWC:
Any thoughts on why the usually more reliable models(such as GFS) continue to initialize Ernesto incorrectly? 50mph 1002mb tropical storm is very different from a 1009 depression/wave.


Perhaps GFS is having a resolution problem? The center is apparently quite small, and maybe GFS isn't doing a good job of picking up on it.
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Quoting Thrawst:
Whoa.. did NOT expect to be under a yellow crayon.

anyways Nassau has been relatively dry from 9am till now. Cumulus just starting to grow again though, so I'd expect some storms here in about an hour or so!

90L formed today? Gee, was I scuba diving that long?! xD

Ernesto is surviving as well?!?! Who said it would be this active?! I want suspects.

It all happened overnight, lol. I was surprised when I woke up to two new circles this morning.
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I am looking forward to Angela's afternoon update :)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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